This has never been about Ukraine winning. this has been about the Western Powers trying to bleed the Russians white and wreck their economy and justify sanctions. Ukraine is just the dupe here. Sure the Western Powers flooded them with money, and equipment, or just enough equipment to keep a blood soaked equilibrium.
And when Ukraine was throwing the Russians back it was a popular cause, and the money flowed, but in the end once the Russians dug in on their gains, and this war lost its luster you knew that the taps would slowly be turned off.
This has never been about young men dying in numbers, or smashed tanks and aircraft. Its been a carefully managed proxy war and Zelensky should have known that this was going to happen and understood where the funding line was going to be drawn.
The victim here is Ukraine, they're not going to get their territory back, at some point they're going to end up at a table with the Russians negotiating. Now that we're heading into the winter months where offenses go to die, the West will be happy to see less and less news coming from the battlefield so they can move on.
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WASHINGTON — U.S. and European officials have begun quietly talking to the Ukrainian government about what possible peace negotiations with Russia might entail to end the war, according to one current senior U.S. official and one former senior U.S. official familiar with the discussions.
The conversations have included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal, the officials said. Some of the talks, which officials described as delicate, took place last month during a meeting of representatives from more than 50 nations supporting Ukraine, including NATO members, known as the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, the officials said.
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They began amid concerns among U.S. and European officials that the war has reached a stalemate and about the ability to continue providing aid to Ukraine, officials said. Biden administration officials also are worried that Ukraine is running out of forces, while Russia has a seemingly endless supply, officials said. Ukraine is also struggling with recruiting and has recently seen public protests about some of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s open-ended conscription requirements.
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The Biden administration does not have any indication that Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to negotiate with Ukraine, two U.S. officials said. Western officials say Putin still believes he can “wait out the West,” or keep fighting until the U.S. and its allies lose domestic support for funding Ukraine or the struggle to supply Kyiv with weapons and ammunition becomes too costly, officials said.
Ukraine isn't going to negotiate with Russia nor should they (see Budapest Memorandum, among other things).
I'd argue they won the war in the summer of 2021 when they survived the first 4 months of the "3 day special military operation". Now it's just a matter of time really, Ukraine won't be stopping until the last Russian soldier leaves. Maybe 30 days, maybe 300 days.
The US won't be stopping their support either - the whole world is getting a free demo of products from General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, General Atomics, to name a few but the list goes on.
The orders are pouring in, stocks in these companies reflect this, thousands of skilled workers get good paying jobs that can't be outsourced and on and on. Any noise from lawmakers against continued support is just politics.
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There was a warning a few weeks ago about a massive disinformation campaign that was being rolled out by the russians and we are now in the midst of it. Not saying all is rosy for Ukraine right now, but there are quite a few doom articles, threads and talk about forcing Ukraine to surrender that have all come to the forefront. This was fully expected and we are now in the midst of it. UA telegram is going nuts right now panicking about it. Unforunately, many people don't know what to look out for when reading the news and the one thing the russians are good at is shifting online discussion to fit a narrative.
Lots of politics going on about funding, weapon delivery, etc. But it would be incredibly stupid for the west to throw in the towel now. Like, beyond stupid. It would mean not remembering the biggest lesson of all that WWII taught us; never appease a land-grabbing dictator.
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Ukraine isn't going to negotiate with Russia nor should they (see Budapest Memorandum, among other things).
I'd argue they won the war in the summer of 2021 when they survived the first 4 months of the "3 day special military operation". Now it's just a matter of time really, Ukraine won't be stopping until the last Russian soldier leaves. Maybe 30 days, maybe 300 days.
The US won't be stopping their support either - the whole world is getting a free demo of products from General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, General Atomics, to name a few but the list goes on.
The orders are pouring in, stocks in these companies reflect this, thousands of skilled workers get good paying jobs that can't be outsourced and on and on. Any noise from lawmakers against continued support is just politics.
What makes you think Ukraine can outlast Russia without massive Western support? If Trump wins I'm pretty sure that will spell trouble for US support for Ukraine, he doesn't care about General Atomics profits. 'Maybe 300 days'? What about 3000? You sincerely think if the Republicans get the govt that they'll back off of _everything_ they are saying and back Ukraine? I'm pretty sure they're partially funded by Russia..... (joke?)
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What makes you think Ukraine can outlast Russia without massive Western support? If Trump wins I'm pretty sure that will spell trouble for US support for Ukraine, he doesn't care about General Atomics profits. 'Maybe 300 days'? What about 3000? You sincerely think if the Republicans get the govt that they'll back off of _everything_ they are saying and back Ukraine? I'm pretty sure they're partially funded by Russia..... (joke?)
Agreed. As soon as Trump gets back in, it's over for Ukraine. So they need to ask themselves if they can win the war before January 2025. If they don't think they can realistically do that, they need to figure out if they can put a peace agreement together.
Problem is, Putin knows this so unless Trump starts really sliding in the polls (unlikely) he has no motivation to give up anything in peace talks.
Agreed. As soon as Trump gets back in, it's over for Ukraine. So they need to ask themselves if they can win the war before January 2025. If they don't think they can realistically do that, they need to figure out if they can put a peace agreement together.
Problem is, Putin knows this so unless Trump starts really sliding in the polls (unlikely) he has no motivation to give up anything in peace talks.
Personally I think Trump has a very low chance of winning, but I also think US support for Ukraine is nowhere near 'unqualified', it is totally partisan at the moment. Look at the current Republican House bill where Israel is funded but not Ukraine.
At this point, it's a war of attrition, and Putin is willing to make his population suffer much much more than those in the west. Unless something happens to Putin, Russia isn't going to negotiate. They'll wait for softening support by the west and the longer it goes, the softer it'll get, especially if economies start going into a recession, regardless of who wins the US election.
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At this point, it's a war of attrition, and Putin is willing to make his population suffer much much more than those in the west. Unless something happens to Putin, Russia isn't going to negotiate. They'll wait for softening support by the west and the longer it goes, the softer it'll get, especially if economies start going into a recession, regardless of who wins the US election.
The problem for Putin is that the western population isn't suffering. Most people most of the time barely remember that the war has some effect on us.
Meanwhile in Russia, men keep coming home in body bags, or go missing never to be heard from without even getting into what a massive hole war is digging into the national budget in Russia
Simultaneously, Ukrainians are much more willing to fight and make sacrifices than Russians are.
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The problem for Putin is that the western population isn't suffering. Most people most of the time barely remember that the war has some effect on us.
Meanwhile in Russia, men keep coming home in body bags, or go missing never to be heard from without even getting into what a massive hole war is digging into the national budget in Russia
Simultaneously, Ukrainians are much more willing to fight and make sacrifices than Russians are.
The highlighted part is the problem, not the supposition in the first sentence. Unconditional and unlimited financial/military support from the Western world is not guaranteed and will likely diminish at some point (likely, sooner rather than later). Ukrainians will continue dying for political principles amplified by emotion-based propaganda instead of their politicians accepting the most logical solution: if the occupation is inevitable - capitulate, negotiate and let the occupying force occupy some territory to avoid human casualties and property destruction. Then, use peaceful protest, apply persisting international pressure in a civilized way to resist and, potentially, end the occupation. Fighting is justified when an occupier's goal is to kill/rape/enslave the population of the country they attack. Control of the occupied territory is only a political loss unless it is accompanied by genocide, ethnic cleansing etc. In this particular case, there was no reason to assume that Russia would have engaged in any of those. This was their "f... you" to US and NATO. Tolstoy's "War and Peace" is a textbook on illogical nature of wars. I wish politicians read it more often.
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The highlighted part is the problem, not the supposition in the first sentence. Unconditional and unlimited financial/military support from the Western world is not guaranteed and will likely diminish at some point (likely, sooner rather than later). Ukrainians will continue dying for political principles amplified by emotion-based propaganda instead of their politicians accepting the most logical solution: if the occupation is inevitable - capitulate, negotiate and let the occupying force occupy some territory to avoid human casualties and property destruction. Then, use peaceful protest, apply persisting international pressure in a civilized way to resist and, potentially, end the occupation. Fighting is justified when an occupier's goal is to kill/rape/enslave the population of the country they attack. Control of the occupied territory is only a political loss unless it is accompanied by genocide, ethnic cleansing etc. In this particular case, there was no reason to assume that Russia would have engaged in any of those. This was their "f... you" to US and NATO. Tolstoy's "War and Peace" is a textbook on illogical nature of wars. I wish politicians read it more often.
this is the possible the dumbest take I have seen here, Russia has an extensive history of literal genocide IN UKRAINE ALONE, let alone all the many other Genocides and Pogroms they have engaged in
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What makes you think Ukraine can outlast Russia without massive Western support? If Trump wins I'm pretty sure that will spell trouble for US support for Ukraine, he doesn't care about General Atomics profits. 'Maybe 300 days'? What about 3000? You sincerely think if the Republicans get the govt that they'll back off of _everything_ they are saying and back Ukraine? I'm pretty sure they're partially funded by Russia..... (joke?)
The highlighted part is the problem, not the supposition in the first sentence. Unconditional and unlimited financial/military support from the Western world is not guaranteed and will likely diminish at some point (likely, sooner rather than later). Ukrainians will continue dying for political principles amplified by emotion-based propaganda instead of their politicians accepting the most logical solution: if the occupation is inevitable - capitulate, negotiate and let the occupying force occupy some territory to avoid human casualties and property destruction. Then, use peaceful protest, apply persisting international pressure in a civilized way to resist and, potentially, end the occupation. Fighting is justified when an occupier's goal is to kill/rape/enslave the population of the country they attack. Control of the occupied territory is only a political loss unless it is accompanied by genocide, ethnic cleansing etc. In this particular case, there was no reason to assume that Russia would have engaged in any of those. This was their "f... you" to US and NATO. Tolstoy's "War and Peace" is a textbook on illogical nature of wars. I wish politicians read it more often.
Are you being intentionally obtuse or are you really that ignorant? Does Mariupol not ring any bells? Any territory ceded to Russia by Ukraine will result in forced deportation/internment for the local population in the best case scenario, or full ethnic cleansing in the worst case. This is why the Ukrainians fight so hard, they have no other choice
Last edited by Hemi-Cuda; 11-05-2023 at 06:51 PM.
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The highlighted part is the problem, not the supposition in the first sentence. Unconditional and unlimited financial/military support from the Western world is not guaranteed and will likely diminish at some point (likely, sooner rather than later). Ukrainians will continue dying for political principles amplified by emotion-based propaganda instead of their politicians accepting the most logical solution: if the occupation is inevitable - capitulate, negotiate and let the occupying force occupy some territory to avoid human casualties and property destruction. Then, use peaceful protest, apply persisting international pressure in a civilized way to resist and, potentially, end the occupation. Fighting is justified when an occupier's goal is to kill/rape/enslave the population of the country they attack. Control of the occupied territory is only a political loss unless it is accompanied by genocide, ethnic cleansing etc. In this particular case, there was no reason to assume that Russia would have engaged in any of those. This was their "f... you" to US and NATO. Tolstoy's "War and Peace" is a textbook on illogical nature of wars. I wish politicians read it more often.
One of the strangest takes. You do realize Russia tried to take over ALL of Ukraine and failed, right? They’ve turned once thriving cities like Mariupol into dust, and are the literal definition of an occupier, who is trying to kill/rape/enslave. Have you been living under a rock and avoiding the countless atrocities Russia has committed? They are a terrorist genocidal regime that must be stopped. Anything they say should be taken as a lie, and Ukraine capitulating means they can eventually say goodbye to their country.
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Last edited by Language; 11-05-2023 at 07:40 PM.
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