American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by craigwd

I just don't get the American political system.
So the dude spends millions upon millions, takes part in dozens of debates......and lasts for one caucus; where 99.999% of people don't actually cast a ballot.


So every supporter that planned to vote for him in the other 49 states, gets screwed from their chance.


What an effed up system.


Just hold one massive primary and be done with it.

The fact that the first 2 primaries, which often weed out the bulk of those running, are about 90 percent white says a lot about the antiquated nature of the process.

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by craigwd

I just don't get the American political system.
So the dude spends millions upon millions, takes part in dozens of debates......and lasts for one caucus; where 99.999% of people don't actually cast a ballot.


So every supporter that planned to vote for him in the other 49 states, gets screwed from their chance.


What an effed up system.


Just hold one massive primary and be done with it.

Money making scheme? Where does that money that was raised go?

[SutterBrother]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I still don't understand how he isn't in prison. Or that even one person on Earth can consider this man suitable for the presidency.

Its mostly evangelicals. So they aren’t too worried. He’s made mistakes, but is god’s chosen.

https://text.npr.org/1225860255

"Have you read the Bible?" Buhrow asked. "Many people in the Bible were married multiple times and they didn't always do the perfect thing."

Buhrow, who attended a pro-Trump event in a suburb outside Des Moines leading up to Monday's Iowa caucuses, says she's been a Trump supporter since his first Iowa caucus in 2016.

"People aren't perfect," Buhrow said. "God is perfect."

Buhrow disregards the 91 state and federal criminal charges Trump is facing - including trying to overturn the 2020 election. She says they're illegitimate and she doesn't think they'll stick.

[Ped]

Who knew the markings of God's hand were orange?

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

The fact that the first 2 primaries, which often weed out the bulk of those running, are about 90 percent white says a lot about the antiquated nature of the process.

The Democrats are holding their first primary in South Carolina. So the process can be changed.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

The Democrats are holding their first primary in South Carolina. So the process can be changed.

They still have Iowa and NH, just doing mail-in. Biden shifted more weight to South Carolina.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Do you have a source for that? According to this, real wages are rising.

Here (though I see they updated with Q4 2023 numbers in the last few days, so technically they've now just exceeded pre-pandemic):

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LEU0252881600Q

And Real Wages are rising, but that's because they declined during COVID. The upwards blip in 2020 was a temporary thing due to deflation dragging the CPI down and lower wage workers being temporarily laid off more than higher wage ones. By mid-2022 unemployment had returned to its historic low, but Real wages were at the same level as 5 years prior.

That's not to say that it's Biden's fault or anything. Inflation is a worldwide phenomenon stemming from COVID and quantitative easing and that has been the biggest factor in stagnating Real wages. But people are still feeling it, regardless of what the GDP growth is and they're going to blame the government for it.

Particularly when that GDP growth that everyone points to is largely fuelled by massive government deficits. The Federal government's deficit is equivalent to 6.3% of GDP right now, a level that is basically unheard of outside of crisis situations (WWII, Global Financial Crisis, 2020-2021 due to COVID). People can rightly ask, "if the economy is doing so well right now, then why does the government have to effectively subsidize it with debt to that degree?".

One explanation for Americans being pessimistic about the economy is growing affective polarization. Republicans cannot bring themselves to believe that the economy is strong when a Democrat sits in the White House (and vice-versa). This helps explain why there’s a gap between how people rate their own personal finances, and their view of the economy in general, with the latter becoming increasingly correlated with political partisanship.

I'm sure that's true to some extent, but Biden's job approval is still sub 40%, and even lower when talking about the economy. And only 24% of the country thinks the US is currently on the right track vs 42-43% early in Biden's term. So there are a fair number of Democrats and Independents who aren't happy with things.

[SutterBrother]

Originally Posted by opendoor

And only 24% of the country thinks the US is currently on the right track vs 42-43% early in Biden's term. So there are a fair number of Democrats and Independents who aren't happy with things.

But are they unhappy enough to flip to Trump?

Biden may suck. But his biggest pros may simply be that he's already beaten Trump, and there are no other choices.

I want the Leafs last Stanley Cup to pass out of living memory as much as the next guy, but if they meet Edm in the finals I know for damn sure who I'm cheering for.

[opendoor]

^ And to add to the above, what wage gains have happened haven't been equal across income and demographic spectrums. Real wages among non-college educated whites for instance are lower than they were 25 years ago. And among white men (of all educations), Real wages are essentially flat compared to 25 years ago.

Those are big voting blocks, so when they hear about how great the economy is going, they wonder why they're not benefiting. Real GDP per capita has increased by 37% over the last 25 years, but virtually all of that growth has ended up going to high earners and the wealthy.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by SutterBrother

But are they unhappy enough to flip to Trump?

Biden may suck. But his biggest pros may simply be that he's already beaten Trump, and there are no other choices.

I want the Leafs last Stanley Cup to pass out of living memory as much as the next guy, but if they meet Edm in the finals I know for damn sure who I'm cheering for.

Given that Trump is leading in national polls and in basically every swing state, yeah they probably are.

[Azure]

Yeah, I think at this point is pretty clear that Biden is not a favourable candidate, and once the GOP primaries clear up and Trump emerges as the clear candidate over warhawk Haley, hard to imagine how things flip over to Biden.

The Democrats are sitting around doing nothing hoping something changes. Very much similar to the Liberals in Canada.

[greyshep]

Originally Posted by Azure

Yeah, I think at this point is pretty clear that Biden is not a favourable candidate, and once the GOP primaries clear up and Trump emerges as the clear candidate over warhawk Haley, hard to imagine how things flip over to Biden.

The Democrats are sitting around doing nothing hoping something changes. Very much similar to the Liberals in Canada.

I get the feeling that they would be more likely to pivot away from Biden if it looked like a viable candidate other than Trump was going to emerge. Could be a risky gamble but thats the way it looks to me.

If Haley was to win the nomination I could see them start to scramble.

[opendoor]

It's also not really realistic to unseat a sitting President if they want to run again. And the only examples of a President not standing for re-election in the last 100 or so years were ones who replaced Presidents who died mid-term, so they had already served more than 4 years.

Ideally, Biden would have been realistic about his chances and left the door open to stepping aside, but that never happened. It also doesn't help that a guy who'd be 82 at the start of his next term has a Vice-President with an even lower approval rating than he has. Replacing Harris with someone competent might be their best shot, but given how stubborn (and in denial) the Democrats and Biden seem to have been, I doubt that happens.

[The Fonz]

Cripes can you imagine Biden during a Presidential Debate at this stage?

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by opendoor

It's also not really realistic to unseat a sitting President if they want to run again. And the only examples of a President not standing for re-election in the last 100 or so years were ones who replaced Presidents who died mid-term, so they had already served more than 4 years.

Isn't this a bit different though? Biden is by far the oldest US President ever elected.

[timun]

If Trump is re-elected, he would be the oldest president.

(Trump was born in June of 1946, Joe Biden in November of 1942. Biden was elected just a couple weeks before his 78th birthday; Trump if re-elected would be about five months after his 78th birthday.)

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

Cripes can you imagine Biden during a Presidential Debate at this stage?

Yeah, it would be a bad result if he debated Trump. I mean, they're both getting up there in age, but I think one has to be flat out lying to themselves if they deny that Trump is more 'there' than Biden is.

Trump refused to debate last time around, but I think it would be advantageous if he challenged Biden this time.

[The Fonz]

Trump also has the advantage in that none of his base cares if he spews nonsense up on stage. Biden on the other hand, stands to lose a lot from doing just that. IMO of course.

[timun]

There are people out there who think "Trump is more 'there' than Biden is"? Trump has been incoherently rambling in pretty much every public appearance he's made for years now.

[activeStick]

Well, yeah I guess you're calling me out haha but yes, that's what I think. Just my opinion, of course.