Russia invades Ukraine

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

A bottle of champagne is saved for the day that stupid bridge is destroyed.

I'm going to buy a case of dom perignon and have a block party the day Putin falls out of a window or walks into a bullet.

[FlameOn]

Speaking of alcohol. Putin has basically nationalized Carlsburg Russian assets
https://www.reuters.com/business/ret...ss-2023-10-31/

[activeStick]

A new article from TIME magazine (had Zelenskyy as Person of the Year last year) summarizing where the war is at now and how Zelenskyy is feeling after all these months.

Public support for aid to Ukraine has been in decline for months in the U.S., and Zelensky’s visit did nothing to revive it. Some 41% of Americans want Congress to#provide more weapons#to Kyiv, down from 65% in June, when Ukraine began a major counteroffensive, according to a#Reuters survey#taken shortly after Zelensky’s departure. That offensive has proceeded at an excruciating pace and with enormous losses, making it ever more difficult for Zelensky to convince partners that victory is around the corner. With the outbreak of war in Israel, even keeping the world’s attention on Ukraine has become a major challenge.

After his visit to Washington, TIME followed the President and his team back to Kyiv, hoping to understand how they would react to the signals they had received, especially the insistent calls for Zelensky to fight corruption inside his own government, and the fading enthusiasm for a war with no end in sight. On my first day in Kyiv, I asked one member of his circle how the President was feeling. The response came without a second’s hesitation: “Angry.”

The usual sparkle of his optimism, his sense of humor, his tendency to liven up a meeting in the war room with a bit of banter or a bawdy joke, none of that has survived into the second year of all-out war. “Now he walks in, gets the updates, gives the orders, and walks out,” says one longtime member of his team. Another tells me that, most of all, Zelensky feels betrayed by his Western allies. They have left him without the means to win the war, only the means to survive it.

But his convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.”

Zelensky’s stubbornness, some of his aides say, has hurt their team’s efforts to come up with a new strategy, a new message. As they have debated the future of the war, one issue has remained taboo: the possibility of negotiating a peace deal with the Russians. Judging by recent surveys, most Ukrainians would reject such a move, especially if it entailed the loss of any occupied territory.

https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-vol...sky-interview/

[fotze2]

The office French bulldog jumped up on my lap, when it climbed off there was a stain. So wondering how I get French bulldog p@ssy blood out of denim?

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by fotze2

The office French bulldog jumped up on my lap, when it climbed off there was a stain. So wondering how I get French bulldog p@ssy blood out of denim?

Fire.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by fotze2

The office French bulldog jumped up on my lap, when it climbed off there was a stain. So wondering how I get French bulldog p@ssy blood out of denim?

There has got to be some pervert on Kijiji who will buy them from you.

[Red Slinger]

Originally Posted by fotze2

The office French bulldog jumped up on my lap, when it climbed off there was a stain. So wondering how I get French bulldog p@ssy blood out of denim?

Did I miss something? There's an existential war for Ukrainians that could heavily impact the balance of power on the planet and this is what you feel is appropriate? I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you meant to click on a different thread. If so, I really don't want to know what thread you meant to include this in.

[bc-chris]

Originally Posted by Red Slinger

Did I miss something? There's an existential war for Ukrainians that could heavily impact the balance of power on the planet and this is what you feel is appropriate? I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you meant to click on a different thread. If so, I really don't want to know what thread you meant to include this in.

what really makes me happy thread?

[Language]

Originally Posted by activeStick

A new article from TIME magazine (had Zelenskyy as Person of the Year last year) summarizing where the war is at now and how Zelenskyy is feeling after all these months.







https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-vol...sky-interview/

Sobering read, to be honest.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[burn_this_city]

I'd caution buying a ton into a TIME article written by a guy born in Russia who spent a number of years working in Moscow. His anonymous sources are guys like Arestovych who seems intent on running for office himself. Shuster has been dead wrong about the majority of his reporting on Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1719224002609094740

[Huntingwhale]

Yeah, that article has been getting raked over the coals recently. Just another orc-loving supporter spouting russian propaganda talking points.

A much more sobering article is this recent one by General Zaluzhny. Basically echoing what has been said from the start; just enough weapons for Ukraine to hang onto as to not lose outright, but not enough support to win decisively. Shipping old NATO weapons and tying Ukraine's hands by not allowing them to hit targets in russia because of EScaLatIOn is a disservice to the AFU. A couple dozen older tanks that require meetings about meetings and takes months to get approved is SFA compared to what is needed. They need to have the shackles let loose and better tech sent quickly. Seems the west gambled as to the boil the frog approach and it's not paying off nearly as well as hoped.

Link to the article's text (behind a paywell) here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...eneral_on_the/

[Cheese]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1720091567736918078

https://twitter.com/user/status/1720095908623478948

[curves2000]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

Yeah, that article has been getting raked over the coals recently. Just another orc-loving supporter spouting russian propaganda talking points.

A much more sobering article is this recent one by General Zaluzhny. Basically echoing what has been said from the start; just enough weapons for Ukraine to hang onto as to not lose outright, but not enough support to win decisively. Shipping old NATO weapons and tying Ukraine's hands by not allowing them to hit targets in russia because of EScaLatIOn is a disservice to the AFU. A couple dozen older tanks that require meetings about meetings and takes months to get approved is SFA compared to what is needed. They need to have the shackles let loose and better tech sent quickly. Seems the west gambled as to the boil the frog approach and it's not paying off nearly as well as hoped.

Link to the article's text (behind a paywell) here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...eneral_on_the/

My concern is that eventually the Ukrainian side may just stop due to a lack of weapons and training from the west. At this point, Russia will have made very strategic gains from land grab perspective and tied Ukraine's hand in the future.

I am more concerned with the storylines that still come from a lot of mainstream media and have from a long time about the upcoming collapse of the Russian army.

It's looking more and more that my worst case scenario may actually come to a fold and that is eventually the handful of men in suits in power may tap Zelensky on the shoulder and tell him it's over and get to the bargaining table.

I am beyond frustrated for the people of Ukraine and everything that they have endured. In lieu of weapons and assistance that perhaps should have been sent sooner to Ukraine, Ukraine better be getting some serious security packages and guarantee's post war.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by curves2000

My concern is that eventually the Ukrainian side may just stop due to a lack of weapons and training from the west. At this point, Russia will have made very strategic gains from land grab perspective and tied Ukraine's hand in the future.

I am more concerned with the storylines that still come from a lot of mainstream media and have from a long time about the upcoming collapse of the Russian army.

It's looking more and more that my worst case scenario may actually come to a fold and that is eventually the handful of men in suits in power may tap Zelensky on the shoulder and tell him it's over and get to the bargaining table.

I am beyond frustrated for the people of Ukraine and everything that they have endured. In lieu of weapons and assistance that perhaps should have been sent sooner to Ukraine, Ukraine better be getting some serious security packages and guarantee's post war.

Please tell me more about the “handful of men in suits in power”.

[Fuzz]

They are usually kept near the binders full of women.

[curves2000]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Please tell me more about the “handful of men in suits in power”.

I don't use that term in a conspiracy minded sense, the truth is that a lot of the decisions in relation to this specific war, like other wars, was made by a small group of mostly men in suits.


I don't think Crystia Freeland from Canada and Giorgi Meloni from Italy are significant decision makers here.

We have been led to believe that we have gone about "all in" on a Ukraine victory and driving Russia out. We have been told that the west and NATO will stand by with support until the end for Ukraine so that democracy prevails.

It really is looking like a lot of specific decisions, key decisions on how the outcome of this war could be changed, have been made by a small group of people. NATO analysts, US President and his key advisors, and members of the US military.

If we recall what Zeleneksy was asking for in order to win, and how his requests were denied on specific military equipment, those were key decisions. When a few NATO countries were looking at providing F16 jets to Ukraine but were forced to reconsider after the US said no, that's a key decision. Zelensky was pleading for thousands of tanks, the world provided something like 300-400.

If the Commander of the Armed Forced of Ukraine is suggesting they don't have enough firepower and manpower in order to drive the forces out, it would indicate that decisions regarding support by a small group of people affected that result.

When I look back a year ago, I was hoping for more advanced weaponry and solider training. I used the men in suits analogy a year ago and it's looking more and more than a small group of power players from the west have purposely limited support as not not provoke Putin, XI Ping, Modi and Kim Jong Un.

The troops will probably battle it out for another year and see how the US election goes. That will have an affect one way or another. It is shaping up that the west is losing material interest in this war and that eventually Ukraine will fight it out on it's own or someone will tap his shoulder indicating that he fought a good battle, but let's get real and start settlement.

I have been on the pro Ukraine train since day #1 but foolishly I thought that with western support and all the sanctions that Putin wouldn't be around. I have read far too many stories about the impending collapse of the Russian army and how they are down to 1910 era equipment and operating while drunk. It's looking more and more that Russia may have achieved a strong objective from a landgrab and prevented Ukraine from access it's port and losing vital land. I hope I am wrong.

[opendoor]

I mean, it's been pretty clear since the first few of months of the war that this was likely to end in a kind of frozen conflict with Ukraine not getting all of its land back. Notions of them pushing Russia back to its borders and taking Crimea back were always pretty far fetched given the realities. The hope was that Russia would tire of losing so many soldiers and withdraw, but that certainly hasn't happened yet and probably won't in the near future.

And it has also been clear from day one that the US isn't going to compromise its own weapon stocks in the slightest, so the fact that they're not sending over hundreds of tanks and planes or guided missiles that have fairly low production rates shouldn't be surprising. And if it wasn't clear before why they feel that way, what's happening in the Middle East should illustrate it. They want to maintain a surplus cache of weapons they can send anywhere in the world should the need arise. They're obviously not going to devote 100% of their surplus weapons to Ukraine, particularly when doing so doesn't really offer much strategic benefit to the US.

You have to look at the US in the most cynical way possible. They would much rather send drips of weapons to Ukraine and grind Russia down with as little cost and risk to them as possible, even if it costs Ukrainian lives.

[FlameOn]

There definitely was a window when Ukraine could have gotten most of their territory back and it was before last fall before all the mines went up. Weapons Ukraine is getting now were needed a year ago, but they were not ready.

Not sure there are even enough fast mine clearing systems now to allow any type of combined arms push.

[FlamesAddiction]

The goal now, and probably always was for Ukrainian will to outlast Russian will, which pretty much means outlasting Putin's life and hoping the next guy doesn't want to continue.

It seems like anxiety levels are down now about a nuclear conflict, but the threat of escalation still exists. A straight forward defeat of Russia by NATO supported Ukrainian forces is dangerous because Russia would see that as an existential threat. However, if they just lose the will to continue, it's a bit of a different story. It really sucks though, because it could take years and unfortunately, a lot of the Ukrainians forced out of the Russian occupied areas may never go back at this point.

[Itse]

I'm still not convinced that Russia can economically, logistically and politically cope with this war in the longterm.

They're still relying on that old Soviet stockpile, and that pile will run out of useful stuff eventually. Their economy is also already seriously hurt by the men wasted at the front, by all the skilled labour and companies that have left the country, and just the sheer cost of it all.

That of course doesn't mean that Ukraine can keep the necessary pressure up long enough for Russia to collapse, but my opinion has long been that this is still a winnable war for Ukraine, as long as the foreign support holds and Ukrainian morale holds, and nothing has changed about that. The Ukrainian summer/fall offensive wasn't as successful as people hoped, but it did also achieve a significant amount of attrition, and honestly moved the lines on the map more than I thought it would.

It will probably take at least another year though, more likely two, and I get that the idea of 1-2 years more makes people sick. In the big picture however, if this ends up being a 3-4 year war... that's not particularly long for a big war.