2024 NHL Draft Thread

[Ped]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

For whatever reason, Finnish players tend to be very risky when taken in the top 10.

Laine, 2nd OA, has 9 points (in 18 games) this year
Puljujarvi, 4th OA, has 0 points
Juolevi, 5th OA, 0 points
Kotkaniemi, 3rd OA, has 24 points
Kaapo Kakko, 2nd OA, has 14 points

But then some are great
Rantanen, 10th OA, has 93 points
Heiskanen, 3rd, OA, has 45 points
Barkov, 2nd OA, has 66 points (but is he ethnically Russian?)

Maybe something about the Liiga makes it difficult to transfer over to North America.
But I have definitely noticed that Liiga and the QMJHL tend to have a lot of busts.

Let's not exaggerate.


Puljujarvi has 1 point.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by Sandman

Draft Thoughts, 2024 Edition, Part 1:

Wallenius' teammate on both the Vaxjo Lakers, and team Sweden at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup, is smooth skating rearguard Alfons Freij- who, like Wallenius, has put up some great numbers in the J20. 9 goals and 23 points in 29 games, which puts him 5th in the league for D, and he put up 4 points in 4 games at the Hlinka, putting him 5th for D in that tournament as well. Freij has a touch more size than Wallenius, at 6'1",192lbs, and is an explosive skater in his own right with a very aggressive, dynamic style. He has an attack mentality, and loves having the puck on his stick, carrying it with confidence with his skillful puckhandling. He's an excellent transporter of the puck, both with his feet in skating from the D zone all the way through to the other end of the rink, or through his deft passing- be it either the short pass, or his expert long bombs to streaking teammates. Freij may be one of the top puck-movers from the backend in this draft, and he can pull off passes that most can't see- and the confidence to try, even when they don't connect sometimes. There's a risk-taking component to his game, and not everything he tries works 100% of the time, but more often than not, it does. He's always working hard to make things happen. He has top-tier vision and creativity, and sees the ice better than most. Freij makes it look easy, and is a threat in the offensive zone, both on and off the puck with his ability to perform and move in traffic, draw attackers to him, and his ability to attack (and create) open space. He can shoot the puck hard and accurate, and get it on net through traffic pretty consistently. There's a physical component here too, although he's not a huge hitter, and needs to get a bit stronger. As good as he is offensively, he can be an adventure in his own zone- he can defend the rush with his speed, but lacks the same zeal in his own zone as he puts into his offensive play. Freij is still considered a two-way defenseman, but this dimension in his game needs work-it's definitely not a glaring weakness. He still exhibits excellent gap control, and has an active stick. Many say that his decision-making in the D zone is a concern, and that he can be pressured into making mistakes. Freij is another D to look for in the late first, early second.

This is replying to an older post, but after watching recent tape, I am completely shocked at how good Freij looks. Very good at controlled entry. Uses good edgework with the puck to get into the zone. Seamless under pressure. Elite passing. Decision-making seems to have improved throughout the season. He never gives up on plays. He can do oddly high-difficulty moves, such as backhand passes and shots out of the blue. Reminds me of Quinn Hughes in his draft year. Lacks some strength, some mistakes, but seems to have a of rare attributes seen in high-ceiling players.

Some sources don't even have him ranked. Could be a big steal IMO.

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

This is replying to an older post, but after watching recent tape, I am completely shocked at how good Freij looks. Very good at controlled entry. Uses good edgework with the puck to get into the zone. Seamless under pressure. Elite passing. Decision-making seems to have improved throughout the season. He never gives up on plays. He can do oddly high-difficulty moves, such as backhand passes and shots out of the blue. Reminds me of Quinn Hughes in his draft year. Lacks some strength, some mistakes, but seems to have a of rare attributes seen in high-ceiling players.

Some sources don't even have him ranked. Could be a big steal IMO.

I’m seeing him in mocks in the second round, but I think one or both of Freij and Sahlin Wellenius will sneak into the first. They are both being criminally underrated IMO. Badinka and Fransen as well.

Freij was one of the first Profiles I did this year.

[Sandman]

Draft Thoughts (I Really Like This Kid Edition):

It's been a tale of two seasons this year for Barrie Colts' RHC Riley Patterson. He started the season slowly, adjusting to the increased pace of the OHL, and dealing with less space and time, after playing the entirety of the 2022-23 season in Junior A, with the North York Rangers of the OJHL, where he was named the CJHL's Top Rookie from 9 leagues across Canada. Patterson had 23 points in his first 34 OHL games, but took off after the New Year, with 38 points in his last 32 games, from January 6th on, for a grand total of 28 goals and 61 points in 66 games to date. His upward trajectory has been so sharp that he was named the OHL Rookie of the Month for both January (15 pts in 12 games) and February (18 points in 12 games)- the first player to win two of those honors in a season since the 2019-20 season, when both Mason McTavish and Shane Wright accomplished the feat. The uptick in offense coincides with the departures of Jacob Frasca to the Greyhounds by trade on January 8th, and Eduard Sale to the Rangers on January 9th, which gave Patterson the chance at more ice-time and responsibility, and he certainly took advantage.

Patterson, who stands 6'0" tall, and weighs in at a sturdy 192lbs, is a self-described power-forward with a good base of tools, and a solid all-around game- though he doesn't have any real elite qualities. He plays in all situations for Barrie, including both sides of special teams, usually on a line with fellow draft-eligible forward Cole Beaudoin, and can play either center or wing. He's a dual-threat on offense, with prowess in both playmaking and scoring, and is blessed with above-average IQ and vision. One of the biggest pillars of his game is his sky-high work-ethic- he plays with energy and intensity. Opponents get frustrated with the way he never takes his foot off the gas, and is always in their faces. He hunts down pucks on the forecheck like a dog on a bone, gaining possession with his tenacity, and goes to war in the trenches. He has a good dose of physicality in his repertoire, and finishes his checks, but does so in a disciplined way, as he's only accumulated 10 penalty-minutes over the course of the season. He competes in the greasy areas, hounds puck-carriers, and bodies opponents off of the puck. His skating, like his puck skills, are solid but not really spectacular- though he doesn't have much trouble getting up and down the ice, and his hands are quick enough to weave through traffic on occasion, with his smooth stickhandling. He's hard on pucks, and it isn't easy to strip him of possession. In transition, he's able to transport the puck through the neutral zone with full control, and make clean entries, though he usually relies on short passes to get the job done.

Patterson has vastly improved his ability to find and open up space, and has gotten better throughout the season at making sound decisions at a much quicker speed- these abilities were weaknesses at the start of the season. Patterson has a wicked one-timer, and gets a nice whip on his snapshot; both come with a quick release that can stun goalies. From what I've seen, most of his goals come from below the hashmarks in the low slot, and come from his willingness to go to the net in search of rebounds, tips, and second-chance opportunities. Patterson is good around the net, and his stick is always on the ice, as he sneaks into high-danger areas to await a pass, and he has good hands in-tight with the ability to shoot through the smallest holes. Though he's not yet a stalwart, he always seems to be on the right side of the puck- his defensive awareness is solid, and he brings his unrelenting motor to his end of the ice. He's tenacious in taking away time and space, and in thwarting plays by clogging lanes, and applying an active stick.

Patterson was traded to the Colts in the summer of 2023, after originally being drafted in the third-round of the 2022 OHL Priority Selection, 57th overall, by the Flint Generals. At the time, he was committed to Michigan State for the 2024-25 season, but effectively de-committed when he signed with Barrie. Like most kids his age, he needs to upgrade his strength and skating, and round out his skillset, but this kid is a gamer- I like him a lot. I can easily see him getting picked in the late second round, but I hope he's still around when the Flames make their 3rd-round choice. I get the sense that this kid will be high up the scoring list next year in the OHL.

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

Other non-top-10 first round Finns aren't much better:

Julius Honka 14th
Kasperi Kapannen 22nd
Henrik Borgstrom 23rd
Valimaki 16th
Vaakanainen 18th
Vesalainen 24th
Jokiharju 29th
Tolvanen 30th
Kupari 20th
Lassi Thomson 19th
Heinola 20th
Lundell 12th

All these players (with possibly the exception of Lundell, although he’s also regressed) are either busts, depth players, or inconsistent players. That’s a concerning track record for a national program as a whole.

It just reinforces to me that you want to be drafting western Canadian players out of the WHL - I just feel more confident in what they are, and will be. I’m aware that’s just my own bias. European players playing in European leagues scare the shyt out of me.

[Tkachukwagon]

Should the Flames pick Zeev if he’s still on the board?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1771551745283367061

[Fan69]

Originally Posted by Tkachukwagon

Should the Flames pick Zeev if he’s still on the board?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1771551745283367061

Would prefer a center but i think Buium and Dickinson are the most complete defencemen in the draft.

I wouldnt have an issue with it. I think hes top pairing all day everyday. If the goal is to improve the team a top pair defender and a top line center are one and two on the list.

[Royle9]

I have a bad feeling (with no basis mind you) but something about Zeev pulling an Adam Fox.

The kid bleeds red white and blue.

[Tacoman]

Zeev with a pretty special night last night. Two beautiful goals including the OT winner in the conference semis for DU.

[Tbull8]

Originally Posted by Royle9

I have a bad feeling (with no basis mind you) but something about Zeev pulling an Adam Fox.

The kid bleeds red white and blue.

I hate to agree but I would players like Yakemchuk, Iginla, Catton as much more likely to stick around long term. Obviously so early to say and every player is different but those guys wouldn’t make me nearly as nervous

[Freeway]

Unless there's a gigantic character red flag, you draft the player you think has the most upside.

[Royle9]

Originally Posted by Freeway

Unless there's a gigantic character red flag, you draft the player you think has the most upside.

Definitely not wrong, but if a guy gives you that vibe pre-draft interviews I think you pivot.

Would hate to see it happen again, mind you this is probably an irrational fear but the kid is very vocal about US hockey… it’s just a weird college vibe I get.

[Tacoman]

As I’ve said before, Zeev is not your prototypical American hockey player. His family moved to the US from Israel. Very worldly and grounded young man. No red flags there from personal experience.

[Reggie Dunlop]

Buium goes the dynamite!

[Reggie Dunlop]

Keep thinking the Flames would trade one of their seconds to move up and take Iginla.

[FlamesAddiction]

I really want Iginla. I think he he has a legitimate chance at being a star player and i just love the story line.

It would be really hard to pass over Buium, Parekh, or Yakemchuk though. It looks likely that at least 2 of those defensemen will be available when the Flames pick.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

It just reinforces to me that you want to be drafting western Canadian players out of the WHL - I just feel more confident in what they are, and will be. I’m aware that’s just my own bias. European players playing in European leagues scare the shyt out of me.

That's how the Flames wasted a lot of their best picks in the later 1990s.

The WHL accounts for no more than 20% of all players in the draft. If you are restricting your draft pool to that 20%, and every other team is picking from 100%, your team is going to be worse.

[devo22]

this fear of US players shafting us really needs to die. Even knowing he'd never sign for us, you make that Fox pick 10 out 10 times. We've had this discussion a ton of times already, but go back and look at the players drafted after Fox. Lots of good boys from Western Canada who never got a sniff of NHL action ... Fox still had a lot of value as a trade chip. I'll take that.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by devo22

this fear of US players shafting us really needs to die. Even knowing he'd never sign for us, you make that Fox pick 10 out 10 times. We've had this discussion a ton of times already, but go back and look at the players drafted after Fox. Lots of good boys from Western Canada who never got a sniff of NHL action ... Fox still had a lot of value as a trade chip. I'll take that.

If you know the player never intends to sign, you move on. You don't make the pick. The fox comparable isn't great as he wasn't a 1st round pick to begin with, he was a 3rd, which is an acceptable risk.

I don't believe the American player jitters need to die. The Flames in particular have been burned too many times in the last five years to not be jittery.

What it comes down to is risk assessment and due diligence .

I get what your saying but I don't agree with it totally. You still want some serviceable games played from a 1st round asset. Given that they can make the show in the 1st place. Definitely don't need any extra causes for concern piled on top of it.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by devo22

this fear of US players shafting us really needs to die. Even knowing he'd never sign for us, you make that Fox pick 10 out 10 times. We've had this discussion a ton of times already, but go back and look at the players drafted after Fox. Lots of good boys from Western Canada who never got a sniff of NHL action ... Fox still had a lot of value as a trade chip. I'll take that.

Especially for first round picks. Even more so for top 10 picks.
A top ten pick should be playing in the NHL after a year. It would rather stupid for a player not to sign an ELC after a D+1 year. Otherwise they could be pushing back their first RFA contract by several years and then lose out on several millions of dollars.

Lets use Gabriel Perreault for an example.

With 54 points in 31 NCAA games, he looks NHL ready.
He could sign a 3 year ECL and get his first real RFA contract at the age of 21 (and he could burn a year of the ELC by signing early). If he's good, he can potentially make 7 mill+ per year from the ages of 21 to 26. Then he can really cash in even more as a younger UFA.

Order, he could refuse to sign, and play with Boston College for another r3 years. He then signs his ELC at the age of 21, and then his first RFA contract at 24. At this point, he has less leverage, and he would have made much less money while in his early 20s.

For a guy like this, the difference could be tens of millions of dollars between agreeing to sign the ELC and holding out. I don't care how much he loves NYC or hates Canada (even though he was born in Canada). He'd be crazy to give up this much money.