Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[rogermexico]

Originally Posted by NewFan

Can you please include Adam Pardy's birth place in the map? Then I can understand more clearly.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

For me the thing that has always given me hope that Johnny re-signs is that his wife left her job in Philly, to move out here this season, and I think it was mentioned she was trying to transfer her work to Calgary (IIRC she's a nurse).

Personally I'm not sure I'd be suggesting that my wife make that big of a change and leaving her job in her hometown if I thought was going to be signing and moving back to that city 12 months later.

As far as I am aware the Gaudreau family has been pretty consistent wtih their support and appreciation of the Flames. I think they feel they have been treated well by the Flames, that is an important thing.

Just my two cents, again, but I think the Flames having the ability to offer 8 years is a big deal in all this. Short of some other team overpaying fairly significantly I think the Flames best offer will be very hard to beat.

[bax]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Haha I know, I hear you. I guess it depends on what is realistically available.

I just think an 8 year deal at a high AAV will see 8 years following this of about 30-40% effort, like Backlund. Maybe even less. The GAF meter will be very, very low and the player very, very complacent. So with that in mind maybe it is better to get nothing for the asset and not tie up so much cap space in a floating anchor, while at the same time still using his amazing effort that will carry out this year and hopefully get Calgary deep in the playoffs. I dunno.

People that become the very best in the world at what they do are rarely motivated by finances- let alone exclusively motivated by finances.

Johnny’s game has always been elite and will continue to be despite how much money he is making.

[bax]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

If I was Andrew Mangiapane back in 2020, I’m absolutely taking a long term deal because at the time, I was a 6th round pick that had just played my first full NHL season without any time in the minors. For me, I thought it was a great time for the Flames to get him on a decently priced long term deal. He had 30 goal scorer written all over him.

I think it’s very fair to look at everything that a GM does and doesn’t do. It’s not always the big obvious screwups that should be critiqued. Sometimes it’s subtle ones too, they all count because it contributes to the overall body of work.

Which was it? A guy who should be eager to accept a long term, cheap deal or a guy with 30 goal scorer written all over him?

Odds are if you could see it, then Mangiapane/his agent did too.

[Pacem]

I see one of two scenarios.

Gaudreau 8 x 11m
Tkachuk 1 x 9m. Good gamble on having another great year playing Johnny


Or

Gaudreau walks.
Tkachuk 5 x 10m ish

I really do see scenario 1 as what is most likely to happen. So long as the Flames keep winning and play competitive hockey that will be the biggest factor in keeping Gaudreau, IMO.

We have a GM and ownership group that has treated Gaudreau and his family well. They've shown they want to win and ice a competitive team every year.

[NegativeSpace]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Why is it a fact that he has done a good to very good job? Because that is your opinion?

Acknowledging some good signings and draft picks doesn't make him a good to very good GM. He has been here 7 years and the team results are not good.

He has had some great FA signings, some average, and some terrible. He has made some good trades, and some bad trades.

Most people look at the overall body of work, but most importantly the teams performance, and judge from there. And the team has not been good with BT as GM

I think this season really will seal the argument - If they can break through and win a few rounds (and then keep the core) it will be inarguable that BT build HIS team and HIS team ended up winning

If they flame out again in the playoffs and loose the core, it will be pretty indefensible his tenure here was a complete failure as we will be effectively starting over with zero success in his tenure.

If the Flames lose in round one, I think Brad gets his walking papers. That will be the same result as Colorado and Dallas. Not saying it’s fair or not but that seems probable to me. I’ve generally liked his work and believe that he does his best to learn from his mistakes. Drafting has improved, professional scouting improved, got some goalies, and finally finally a good coach. It would seem most criticism today is that he didn’t do it sooner. So, I can see him staying on after this season but if they bow out in the first round again then I can’t see him surviving without some serious heat on the organization.

Re losing the core pieces. I do not see a benefit to firing a manager in the middle of the summer after free agency and the draft. Seems like all the work is done and might as well see how the season starts. If they lost all their core in the summer then that has already happened. Might as well see it play out. If the team is not good then you do what Vancouver did and get new people in place before the trade deadline.


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[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by Pacem

I see one of two scenarios.

Gaudreau 8 x 11m
Tkachuk 1 x 9m. Good gamble on having another great year playing Johnny


Or

Gaudreau walks.
Tkachuk 5 x 10m ish

I really do see scenario 1 as what is most likely to happen. So long as the Flames keep winning and play competitive hockey that will be the biggest factor in keeping Gaudreau, IMO.

We have a GM and ownership group that has treated Gaudreau and his family well. They've shown they want to win and ice a competitive team every year.

I love Gaudreau but if he wants 8 years at 11 million he can walk. That's way too much. I can see 9.5 x 8 or 10 x 7

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

I love Gaudreau but if he wants 8 years at 11 million he can walk. That's way too much. I can see 9.5 x 8 or 10 x 7

Why is it too much?

If paying Johnny precludes them from signing an extra Trevor Lewis and actually playing their AHL guys, that’s all the more reason to do it.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Why is it too much?

If paying Johnny precludes them from signing an extra Trevor Lewis and actually playing their AHL guys, that’s all the more reason to do it.

FWIW, Lewis makes less than any AHL guy they’d call up. Pitlick is a different story.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

FWIW, Lewis makes less than any AHL guy they’d call up. Pitlick is a different story.

Tre loves his Rando depth signings. Sutter did too - Mark Smith, Jeff Friesen etc - this organization has always preferred the useless vet to the useless kid.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Why is it too much?

If paying Johnny precludes them from signing an extra Trevor Lewis and actually playing their AHL guys, that’s all the more reason to do it.

For 1 year. Then those AHL guys contracts start to expire right when Lindholm expires and says $11 mil sure I’ll take it

$11 mil is too much

Ruzicka is a RFA this year. Add him to Kylington Dube and mangiapane as ahlers that are getting raises

$11 mil signs us up for more Lewis Richardson types. Maybe 2 lines worth

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Why is it too much?

If paying Johnny precludes them from signing an extra Trevor Lewis and actually playing their AHL guys, that’s all the more reason to do it.

It's too much because he had several stretches in the last few years where teams were able to shut him down. In addition, there's still a giant question mark regarding his play in the playoffs. Gaudreau - Monahan - Lindholm also had an amazing half a year of play, but then their play dropped off after the all-star break. Finally, I have no idea how good he is going to play in his early-mid thirties.

We've seen amazing play and buy in from Gaudreu this year. I'm simply not sure if that's the exception or the rule for the way he plays from here on out. That's why I personally find that contract is too much.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

I love Gaudreau but if he wants 8 years at 11 million he can walk. That's way too much. I can see 9.5 x 8 or 10 x 7

While I wouldn’t want to pay him $11 million , if that’s what it takes Flames have to do it. They can’t just let him walk for nothing . I’m not convinced the flames even have a 1st line forward in the system. We could offer any other ufa 1st line player $11 million and he would probably just use that to drive up the price for another team. It’s sucks to say this but the odds of a 1st line ufa or a 1st line with a clause isn’t going to sign or lift it for Calgary. And no I don’t think ownership will go rebuild straight away if Johnny goes.

[delayedreflex]

Originally Posted by Pacem

I see one of two scenarios.

Gaudreau 8 x 11m
Tkachuk 1 x 9m. Good gamble on having another great year playing Johnny


Or

Gaudreau walks.
Tkachuk 5 x 10m ish

I really do see scenario 1 as what is most likely to happen. So long as the Flames keep winning and play competitive hockey that will be the biggest factor in keeping Gaudreau, IMO.

We have a GM and ownership group that has treated Gaudreau and his family well. They've shown they want to win and ice a competitive team every year.

I hope we can re-sign Johnny, but honestly hope it doesn't take $11M x 8 to do it. That's $88M - since other teams can only offer him a 7-year contract, to get $88M he'd have to be getting offers of $12.5M x 7 - I don't see Gaudreau getting McDavid money. The upper end in my estimation would be Panarin money ($81.5M contract), which would be $10.2M/yr over 8 years. I'm thinking there's a decent chance that Johnny would take the Kucherov contract of $9.5M x 8, even though the taxes here aren't quite as favourable as Tampa, it's a pretty respectable payday.

Could always front load the contract to pay like $12M for the earlier years and $8M for later years if he is wanting more money up front, assuming that ownership is OK with that.

[442scotty]

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Gaudreau family support for him resigning in Calgary could be to drive up the offer from Philly. If Philly knew/ were confident that Gaudreau wanted to come home then they could offer a much lower salary. I hope I’m wrong

[442scotty]

Treliving is going to have to overpay big time to keep Gaudreau and I’m somewhat with that. At least 11M, with large signing bonus

[JTech780]

If Gaudreau keeps up his current pace, I think you have to look at Panarin's $11.6m as the benchmark for Gaudreau. I don't see him signing for anything less than $10m. My guess is that it takes somewhere in the $10.5-11m range.

[Mass_nerder]

Guys, Gaudreau chose a song by Kenny Chesney to play during his shooting for the accuracy competition. The country is in his blood, and I don't think he picked that up in Philly. He ain't going anywhere.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Mass_nerder

Guys, Gaudreau chose a song by Kenny Chesney to play during his shooting for the accuracy competition. The country is in his blood, and I don't think he picked that up in Philly. He ain't going anywhere.

Did he buy any boots yet?

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Mass_nerder

Guys, Gaudreau chose a song by Kenny Chesney to play during his shooting for the accuracy competition. The country is in his blood, and I don't think he picked that up in Philly. He ain't going anywhere.

I remember in an interview they asked him what was his favourite road city to play in and he said Nashville, not Philly.