Russia invades Ukraine

[curves2000]

Putin has had way too many stories about his health being in decline or on the verge of death. I hate to say it but he is about as fit, trim, active and healthy a man in his 70's could be. He does not smoke and limits alcohol to almost a handful of times a year.

I mean he straps on the skates and scores like 14 goals a game vs some of Russia's best. All jokes aside, I think outside of an attempt on him or another freakish thing, Putin will be with us for a while. Not unheard of for him to govern well into his 80's

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by curves2000

Putin has had way too many stories about his health being in decline or on the verge of death. I hate to say it but he is about as fit, trim, active and healthy a man in his 70's could be. He does not smoke and limits alcohol to almost a handful of times a year.

I mean he straps on the skates and scores like 14 goals a game vs some of Russia's best. All jokes aside, I think outside of an attempt on him or another freakish thing, Putin will be with us for a while. Not unheard of for him to govern well into his 80's

I think he'll fall out of one of his windows before that.

[karl262]

The Russian losses thus far are truly staggering, almost 10k APV, over 5k tanks, 300+ helicopters, 300+ aircraft. Within two weeks I think they'll surpass 300k killed, wounded and missing.

Oh and 20 warships and a submarine fighting a country without a navy.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by karl262

The Russian losses thus far are truly staggering, almost 10k APV, over 5k tanks, 300+ helicopters, 300+ aircraft. Within two weeks I think they'll surpass 300k killed, wounded and missing.

Oh and 20 warships and a submarine fighting a country without a navy.

Mother Russia's greatest strength is the ability to accept the deaths and injuries of her sons and daughters.

[Mr.Coffee]

Even if Putin dies, it’s not like he’s operating in a vacuum. This is a Russian leadership thing. There is no good replacement anyway.

[Itse]

https://yle.fi/a/74-20056324

A story that hasn't gotten that much attention internationally, but is sure to be a hot topic in diplomatic corners and could create some really major new security developments in the Baltic Sea.

It is at this point all but confirmed that the Baltic Connector gas pipe running under the sea from Finland to Estonia was damaged, very likely intentionally, by the Chinese container ship New New Polar Bear. Some underwater datacables were also broken in the process.

The method was simply dragging the ships anchor in the bottom, something experts seem to agree would be very hard to happen by accident. The ship was sold to a Chinese owner and flagged to Hong Kong this June, a timing which obviously raises further questions. The ship is currently at port in St. Petersburg. (There was a Russian cargo ship also under suspicion, but there's unconfirmed images of the Chinese ship missing an anchor, and an anchor has been found at the bottom of the sea, so it doesn't look like the whodunnit part is going to be much longer.)

While the Baltic Connector isn't a super important pipeline, the incident has further raised the question whether or not shipping in the Baltic Sea should be more tightly controlled to protect the gas pipes and other underwater infrastructure, which are, as now shown, quite vulnerable (due to how shallow the sea is).

More precisely, there's talk that maybe NATO should start, for example, escorting ships to and from St. Petersburg and inspect them if there's further reason to suspect sabotage. Now that Finland is part of NATO, this would be theoretically quite feasible.

Or just block shipping to St. Petersburg all together.

Everyone has been extremely careful with their statements so far, but I think everyone with half a brain can see how much dry gunpowder there is under this.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Itse

https://yle.fi/a/74-20056324

A story that hasn't gotten that much attention internationally, but is sure to be a hot topic in diplomatic corners and could create some really major new security developments in the Baltic Sea.

It is at this point all but confirmed that the Baltic Connector gas pipe running under the sea from Finland to Estonia was damaged, very likely intentionally, by the Chinese container ship New New Polar Bear. Some underwater datacables were also broken in the process.

The method was simply dragging the ships anchor in the bottom, something experts seem to agree would be very hard to happen by accident. The ship was sold to a Chinese owner and flagged to Hong Kong this June, a timing which obviously raises further questions. The ship is currently at port in St. Petersburg. (There was a Russian cargo ship also under suspicion, but there's unconfirmed images of the Chinese ship missing an anchor, and an anchor has been found at the bottom of the sea, so it doesn't look like the whodunnit part is going to be much longer.)

While the Baltic Connector isn't a super important pipeline, the incident has further raised the question whether or not shipping in the Baltic Sea should be more tightly controlled to protect the gas pipes and other underwater infrastructure, which are, as now shown, quite vulnerable (due to how shallow the sea is).

More precisely, there's talk that maybe NATO should start, for example, escorting ships to and from St. Petersburg and inspect them if there's further reason to suspect sabotage. Now that Finland is part of NATO, this would be theoretically quite feasible.

Or just block shipping to St. Petersburg all together.

Everyone has been extremely careful with their statements so far, but I think everyone with half a brain can see how much dry gunpowder there is under this.

What’s the Chinese angle here? Just a flag of convenience?

[Itse]

Originally Posted by edslunch

What’s the Chinese angle here? Just a flag of convenience?

That's going to be the real billion dollar question here.

Other than "something that makes things a whole lot more complicated", I've seen no public comments. Admittedly I haven't had the energy to follow the details very closely, so I might have missed something.

[Cheese]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1717499706949935341

[Itse]

Originally Posted by edslunch

What’s the Chinese angle here? Just a flag of convenience?

Can't find an English source now, but some more news on this:

Apparently there's heavy Russian involvement in the ownership, and more importantly, the whole crew of the shop was changed in Kaliningrad from Chinese to Russians.

Which makes the whole thing look like a pretty purely Russian operation.

[icarus]

Well Putin and Xi did declare a no-limits partnership back when Putin attended the Winter Olympics opening ceremony and asked for China's blessing to invade Ukraine...

[Cheese]

The drone war grows..

https://twitter.com/user/status/1717643618708590645

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Cheese

The drone war grows..

https://twitter.com/user/status/1717643618708590645

Haven't seen that kind of drone before, but seems like kind of an obvious idea the moment you see it.

[Old Yeller]

I wonder how much it costs... $1-2k?

Maybe a bit more because they actually are bigger than I expected:

Spoiler!

Google tells me the average price of a Russian T14 Armata tank is somewhere between $5 - 7 million each.. that's a pretty good trade off.

[nik-]

There are no Armatas in Ukraine. They're basically the vaporware of armor

[Old Yeller]

Yeah a little more detailed searching afterwards from April 2023:

"Russia's new T-14 Armata battle tank debuts in Ukraine"

And then in late July:

"Russia Withdraws 'Game Changing ' T-14 Armata Tank After Brief Frontline Run



Anyway point being is that drone warfare really is revolutionizing the battle field at a fraction of the cost.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Even if Putin dies, it’s not like he’s operating in a vacuum. This is a Russian leadership thing. There is no good replacement anyway.

I have some hope that a Putin death would give Russia an off ramp. They could back out of the war and have a scapegoat to blame. Putin managed to become more powerful than the oligarchs, but a new leader might not have the same sway, and most of the oligarchs probably care more about making money than Ukraine.

You could be right though. It's hard to say what would happen.

[Cortez]

Originally Posted by Cheese

The drone war grows..

https://twitter.com/user/status/1717643618708590645

This is so sweet. We are headed to a time where video gamers are the most highly sought-after minds for war.

Ah what the hell do I know, we are probably already there.

[Cheese]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1718975557428220264

https://twitter.com/user/status/1718945306467872782

https://twitter.com/user/status/1718902201471348773

[Huntingwhale]

A bottle of champagne is saved for the day that stupid bridge is destroyed.