2020/2021 Trade Speculation and Rumours

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by New Era

So what you're saying is the Flames should just mail it in every year until they get a top three pick, then be concerned about drafting and developing talent. So what do you say to teams that have drafted top three and have #### the bed endlessly? What is their problem? They supposedly have the magic bullet, that top three pick. Why do Edmonton and Buffalo NOT have Stanley Cups rolling in?

I view an organization as a pyramid. 1 is the top (least important), 5 is the base and most important:

1. Supporting cast around core
2. Coaching
3. Drafting/Homegrown talent
4. GM
5. Ownership

Ownership pays for the 4 things above. Want to know why Edmonton and Buffalo suck? Ownership.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Gotta draft in the top 5 multiple times to win the Stanley cup, and almost always at least once in the top 3.

Do you? And when do those picks turn into something? Because Stamkos was drafted in 2008 and Hedman in 2009. So it took 11-12 years for those picks to bare fruit.

Looking at the Blues, they didn't draft in the top three once. Their top three pick was Bouwmeester (2002) and was on his third team, 17 years after being drafted. The Capitals #1 was Ovechkin and that was in 2004, so 14 years after the fact. Going to the Bruins they had 18 year old Tyler Seguin (#2) as a passenger, and Nathan Horton (#3) on the team, but that team was driven by a collection of second round picks or later. Lucic, Krejci, Bergeron were all second round picks, Chara, Marchand, and Campbell third rounders, Recchi a fourth rounder, Seidenberg a sixth rounder, and Ryder an eight rounder.

So either we tank, we trade for a top 3 selection (eichel), or we continue to not win any cups.

Not buying it. If all it took to win a cup was to draft early, every first overall pick would have their name etched on the trophy. Not the way the way it works. There have been just as many failures as there have been success stories by drafting early. The real secret is drafting enough talent that develops critical mass and becomes a deep team. The Flames never achieved that because Treliving traded away all the picks for middling talent.

[ComixZone]

No one is saying all it takes to win a cup is a top-3 pick.

It’s a top-3 pick (or picks, or I guess in St. Louis’ case, top-4) + a whole bunch of fantastic drafting and good trading.

…and not spending stupid money in free agency on support players.

[Jiri Hrdina]

I always find the inclusion of Alex Formenton in these discussions to be strange. He's proving to be a depth player at the NHL level who struggles to produce much offense.
Are we really missing a guy like that?
Sounds a lot like the guy his pick was traded for.

[transplant99]

The chances of drafting a top C are BETTER if you pick high...no doubt, but that is not the ONLY way to draft them.

A really good example would be the Calgary Flames.

Joe Nieuwendyk is the best C this club ever employed. He was taken 27th overall...which was round 2 back then.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by New Era

Do you? And when do those picks turn into something? Because Stamkos was drafted in 2008 and Hedman in 2009. So it took 11-12 years for those picks to bare fruit.

Looking at the Blues, they didn't draft in the top three once. Their top three pick was Bouwmeester (2002) and was on his third team, 17 years after being drafted. The Capitals #1 was Ovechkin and that was in 2004, so 14 years after the fact. Going to the Bruins they had 18 year old Tyler Seguin (#2) as a passenger, and Nathan Horton (#3) on the team, but that team was driven by a collection of second round picks or later. Lucic, Krejci, Bergeron were all second round picks, Chara, Marchand, and Campbell third rounders, Recchi a fourth rounder, Seidenberg a sixth rounder, and Ryder an eight rounder.



Not buying it. If all it took to win a cup was to draft early, every first overall pick would have their name etched on the trophy. Not the way the way it works. There have been just as many failures as there have been success stories by drafting early. The real secret is drafting enough talent that develops critical mass and becomes a deep team. The Flames never achieved that because Treliving traded away all the picks for middling talent.

The blues drafted EJ 1st overall in 2006

[Monahammer]

The only club that won a cup since 2004 that didn't have a top 3 pick after 2002 was Detroit. That team had Lidstrom Datsyuk zetterberg and more on it. Since 2004 it Is virtually impossible to win the cup without a top 3 pick. I can say that with certainty because it just hasn't happened.

[SeanCharles]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I always find the inclusion of Alex Formenton in these discussions to be strange. He's proving to be a depth player at the NHL level who struggles to produce much offense.
Are we really missing a guy like that?
Sounds a lot like the guy his pick was traded for.

Probably right and to be fair Lazar is the one trade that made some sense so fair enough.

I just really like some of his tools as he has blazing speed, something we could use more of.

[Beatle17]

Originally Posted by fleury

I tend to disagree. Getting a high pick gives you a much higher chance of getting a stud. Edmonton seems to have ruined players for whatever reason. Could be their development system or it could be the supporting cast, but you remove Edmonton picks and there’s a good chance you’re getting a person to build a franchise around. Edmonton seems to be an outlier.

How about Buffalo and NJ? There are no sure things drafting 18 year old kids.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by Beatle17

How about Buffalo and NJ? There are no sure things drafting 18 year old kids.

The chances of a top 3 pick turning into a good player are very high.
There is almost nothing in hockey that brings this type of certainty when it comes to acquiring elite players. If this isn't certain enough for you, then pretty much no move a GM can make (even for menial tasks) is certain enough for you.

Buffalo and NJ have way more young talent than the Flames, and even their disappointing picks are all top 6 players while still being very young.

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by transplant99

The chances of drafting a top C are BETTER if you pick high...no doubt, but that is not the ONLY way to draft them.

A really good example would be the Calgary Flames.

Joe Nieuwendyk is the best C this club ever employed. He was taken 27th overall...which was round 2 back then.

The likes of Barzal, Girioux, Bergeron, Point. They’re out there but you just need to have the picks/bullets in the chamber.

I actually really trust our current management in drafting, they just need to be able to draft more.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

The blues drafted EJ 1st overall in 2006

And he was gone for eight years before they won the Cup. You can't count that.

[Hackey]

The draft position doesn't matter but you absolutely need high end elite talent and usually 2-3 players of that caliber. The easiest and most certain way to obtain it is top 5 picks. Ya you can get lucky like Boston with Pastranak but that is the exception not the norm.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

And he was gone for eight years before they won the Cup. You can't count that.

Wait, are you suggesting that the easier path to winning the Stanley Cup is not to have a top 3 pick on the roster?

Elite talent wins you Stanley cups, and the likelihood of getting elite talent is through top 3 picks.

Exceptions to this don't disprove that.

[Groot]

Seeing the speculation prior around Seattle possibly being interested in taking Lucic, or Giordano more likely if he was available, if I'm Treliving I'm working Seattle hard to trade them Giordano plus a pick(s) to take Lucic in the expansion draft. Losing both Gio's contract and Lucic's contract in one fell-swoop could be massive and we could use the cap to go after one of the bigger UFA's.

To Seattle: Giordano, 2021 3rd, 2022 3rd, Lucic (via expansion)

Cap Space Available: $25,723,334

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

Wait, are you suggesting that the easier path to winning the Stanley Cup is not to have a top 3 pick on the roster?

Elite talent wins you Stanley cups, and the likelihood of getting elite talent is through top 3 picks.

Exceptions to this don't disprove that.

Exactly. I never understand the logic posters try to argue saying top 5 picks don't always pan out and they are no guarantee to becoming an elite team yet somehow not having top 5 picks is easier or more likely? It's undeniably significantly harder.

The best strategy is to do both. Have 3 top 5 picks and load up on later picks and hope you can hit once or twice. That's how you give yourself the best odds at success.

The easiest way to achieve that is being proactive with a rebuild and loading up heavy on future assets.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

Who do you think has more value:
-Monahan now after two poor seasons + injuries, but with 2 years left
-Monahan after next season, in which he gets 55 points in 75 games, but only has 1 year left on this deal

Probably the latter, right? But projecting 55 points is a pretty big "if". Especially since Johnny, Lindholm and Tkachuk appear to be a line moving forward.
Since this is fairly unlikely, I think they should trade Monahan this summer, even if they're trading low. Avoid the risk of another bad season.

I think Monny getting 55 points next year with good health and not playing on the big line would have way more value in a trade than right now.

Unlikely? Yeah, probably.

But his trade value is so low right now, I don’t think it’s that risky.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by MrMike

The likes of Barzal, Girioux, Bergeron, Point. They’re out there but you just need to have the picks/bullets in the chamber.

I actually really trust our current management in drafting, they just need to be able to draft more.

You can add Aho to your list. Kopitar went 11th.

[playmaker]

And Getzlaf (19th)

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

Wait, are you suggesting that the easier path to winning the Stanley Cup is not to have a top 3 pick on the roster?

Elite talent wins you Stanley cups, and the likelihood of getting elite talent is through top 3 picks.

Exceptions to this don't disprove that.

I'm not suggesting anything. I'm saying that the Blues drafting a disappointing player #1 overall in 2006, and trading that player away in 2011, did nothing to help them win the Cup in 2019. People are talking about having top-3 draft picks on your roster. Well, Erik Johnson was not on the Blues' roster when they won the Stanley Cup, and neither were any of the players they traded him for.