Real estate in Calgary - another bubble?

[jwslam]

Originally Posted by accord1999

Table

Anybody else read this as "Why are we against Quebec Separatists?"

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

If oil stays around $100 CAD this year we will make $150-200B on oil in 2022. Not sure what the federal government's cut would be, but it should certainly help cut down the deficit.

If the price of oil gets high enough (and stays there) I wouldn't be surprised if at some point we see some sort of windfall tax proposed by the Federal government... probably couched in some sort of green-energy transition initiative.

Not unlike in Spain, where the government attempted to tax "excess profits" of utility companies, instead of looking to fix the supply issue.
https://www.ft.com/content/7d38b7da-...a-470b74e82a3f

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

If oil stays around $100 CAD this year we will make $150-200B on oil in 2022. Not sure what the federal government's cut would be, but it should certainly help cut down the deficit.

I would guess many of the big oil companies have tax loss carry forwards that would cover them for a bit before the feds start cashing in big on corporate taxes. But individual incomes will rise (eg bonuses) and they'll get their cut their right away.

[cKy]

I've been watching some listings and houses are selling for over $100,000 asking in 3 days. That's a pretty competitive market to trying to buy in right now.

[The Yen Man]

Is it dependent on house though? There's a house on my cul-de-sac that went on the market. 2400 sqft + developed basement, and backs onto green space. They listed for $775K. Looks like it's been on the market for 2+ weeks now. So is the RE market really as hot as people are saying? 100K over asking price is nuts. My house is only worth like $500K at most, and I'd much rather pay $775K for that house than $600K for mine.

Quoting myself, but looks like that house was sold a couple of days ago, literally like the next day after I posted this lol. And not even conditionally sold, just sold. So I guess houses in the burbs here are in demand too.

[boogerz]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

Is it dependent on house though? There's a house on my cul-de-sac that went on the market. 2400 sqft + developed basement, and backs onto green space. They listed for $775K. Looks like it's been on the market for 2+ weeks now. So is the RE market really as hot as people are saying? 100K over asking price is nuts. My house is only worth like $500K at most, and I'd much rather pay $775K for that house than $600K for mine.

Are you in the burbs? All detached and semi-detached under $1M in the inner-city are going conditional within a couple days.

[kevman]

Are they though? According to the last update I saw for Sunnyside they all sold below asking. Selling fast? Maybe. Selling over listing? Nope.

[Weitz]

It’s definitely neighborhood I’d say. Houses sell in 0-2 days in my neighborhood right now. West side burb.

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by boogerz

Are you in the burbs? All detached and semi-detached under $1M in the inner-city are going conditional within a couple days.

Yup, I'm in the burbs. So I guess it's location dependent. So overall, I'd say there might be cases where houses are selling above asking price, but I'm guessing for the majority, that's probably not happening. Not saying the housing market hasn't been hot, just saying it's probably not as crazy as the media or people hearing stories from realtors are making it out to be. From their stories, it sounds like the wild west right now.

[Calgary14]

Bode.ca has the neighborhood sales data and it does look like it varies a bit between neighborhoods

[DoubleF]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

Yup, I'm in the burbs. So I guess it's location dependent. So overall, I'd say there might be cases where houses are selling above asking price, but I'm guessing for the majority, that's probably not happening. Not saying the housing market hasn't been hot, just saying it's probably not as crazy as the media or people hearing stories from realtors are making it out to be. From their stories, it sounds like the wild west right now.

Neighborhood desirability is one aspect, but I think it depends also on the conditions and the fairness of the price. Some of the listings already have premiums built into them already. $775K sounds fair for a 2400 sq ft home, unless there's some major issue with it that needs immediate rectification. Additionally, I wonder if the property is move in ready or if possession is a few months down the road? Stuff like that?

I saw one that was 1800 sq ft of 80s/90s original un-reno'd for $640K. It's way over priced by around $100K is my guess. It was obviously a rental and in the pics, it seemed it wasn't even properly cleaned or patched up. This one I doubt moves for a few weeks and will sell for below asking, but I am also assuming it's set to be snapped up by someone looking to flip the house over the next few months (sell below market or behind the scenes partnering up for the house flip).

[kevman]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

Yup, I'm in the burbs. So I guess it's location dependent. So overall, I'd say there might be cases where houses are selling above asking price, but I'm guessing for the majority, that's probably not happening. Not saying the housing market hasn't been hot, just saying it's probably not as crazy as the media or people hearing stories from realtors are making it out to be. From their stories, it sounds like the wild west right now.

Recent SFH/Semi-Detached sales in Sunnyside:
Jan - $1,290,000, 96 days on market, -5% below asking
Jan - $455,288, 14 days on market, -1% below asking
Nov - $550,000, 108 days on market, -13% below asking
Nov - $487,000, 89 days on market, -3% below asking
Nov - $740,000, 62 days on market, -2% below asking
Nov - $460,000, 43 days on market, -3% below asking
Nov - $401,199, 1 day on market, asking price
Oct - $725,000, 119d on market, -3% below asking
Oct - $370,000, 32d on market, -14% below asking

Honestly I don't know how that compares to a typical hot market. However it seems a long way off from the reports of houses going over asking in days without conditions.

[boogerz]

Originally Posted by kevman

Recent SFH/Semi-Detached sales in Sunnyside:
Jan - $1,290,000, 96 days on market, -5% below asking
Jan - $455,288, 14 days on market, -1% below asking
Nov - $550,000, 108 days on market, -13% below asking
Nov - $487,000, 89 days on market, -3% below asking
Nov - $740,000, 62 days on market, -2% below asking
Nov - $460,000, 43 days on market, -3% below asking
Nov - $401,199, 1 day on market, asking price
Oct - $725,000, 119d on market, -3% below asking
Oct - $370,000, 32d on market, -14% below asking

Honestly I don't know how that compares to a typical hot market. However it seems a long way off from the reports of houses going over asking in days without conditions.

The price to list ratio in the monthly CREB stats was in the 98-99% range for the better part of last year. It's only until last month that it crept over 100%.

Those figures are for all of Calgary and some neighborhoods are hotter than others, but for anyone that's been regularly looking at the actual numbers, the situation over the past 15 months as never been as dire as the media is making it out to be.

The market suddenly got a lot hotter right after Christmas though. October was still relatively cool

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by cKy

I've been watching some listings and houses are selling for over $100,000 asking in 3 days. That's a pretty competitive market to trying to buy in right now.

Where can you see what a house actually sold for?

[rain_e]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

Where can you see what a house actually sold for?

https://www.honestdoor.com/

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by rain_e

https://www.honestdoor.com/

great site. I should have sold when my place hit $989k in July 2021.

now it has dropped $200k in a month.....

[Wormius]

Calgary Assessment also shows recent sales.

[OldDutch]

I sold my house in Kensington area late last year. Went for 30K below ask, but sold in 24 hours. No real conditions.

We discussed pushing for full price, but what we asked was probably 30K past a solid (not greedy) price.

I think we could have got full price, but the buyers were great to deal with, and it allowed us to move quick on our buy and get the house we wanted.

So the number will say below ask, but it was basically us taking a solid number at instant sale. Would never have hoped for that when we started.

[troutman]

Sunnyside might be different because of flood risk.

[kevman]

Nah, it just means you get a new furnace and hot water heater!