The ongoing financial turmoil and financial discussion thread - Page 61 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

macker · 05-04-2009, 02:37 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Azure

S&P has been moving like crazy the past few months....up or down. We really have no idea what it will do tomorrow or the day after.

We have no idea where it is going but we have an idea where it has just been and that is 23% off of it's low. If you want to see where it is likely going look at the technicals and they will tell you it is likely 900 even though technicals haven't been as reliable lately....I would use memorial day as a timeline to get there....after that all bets are off....

Might not sell in May this year....

May 4th update : S&P 500 broke through 900 today and Memorial day in the States isn't til May 25th. Is this recovery rally a bunch of bull?

Phanuthier · 05-04-2009, 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by macker

May 4th update : S&P 500 broke through 900 today and Memorial day in the States isn't til May 25th. Is this recovery rally a bunch of bull?

whats your guys thoughts?

i don't see anything that would indicate the economy turning around...other then the stocks market

macker · 05-04-2009, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

whats your guys thoughts?

i don't see anything that would indicate the economy turning around...other then the stocks market

The bad news has been discounted. The market is forward thinking and moves well in advance of the economy. It is like when something is dark and then one day it turns a slightly greyer dark. I do however think the market is getting a bit ahead of itself here and will correct to reflect this. The market climbs the wall of worry and lately it has been going up two/three steps at a time...

Phanuthier · 05-04-2009, 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by macker

The bad news has been discounted. The market is forward thinking and moves well in advance of the economy. It is like when something is dark and then one day it turns a slightly greyer dark. I do however think the market is getting a bit ahead of itself here and will correct to reflect this. The market climbs the wall of worry and lately it has been going up two/three steps at a time...

It certainly is, but I don't see any signs of recovery really. Besides the auto industry, things have started to level off at the bottom, but I don't really see any evidence that the economy is improving.

Phanuthier · 05-04-2009, 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fotze

Were you able to see when the economy was headed south...prior to when it was obvious....which is probably a lot before when claeren and them were posting about it.....I couldn't.

Personally, or my ability to predict the future?

I certainly knew the economy was going to crash hard, I just had a different diagnoses on how it would happen. (So I guess I was actually wrong since my reasoning was different)

I was asking more about in the next few months, if this is "the recovery" or not

Slava · 05-04-2009, 07:30 PM

It looks like the economy will come out of recession around the end of August. There are actually signs that things are improving, or at least leveling out. The stock market is a leading indicator and moves ahead of the rest of the economy by and large; there are typically a lot of bad news stories when the markets are recovering.

I still think that you ought to be cautiously optimistic at this point. You could throw every dime in today and be thrilled in about 5 years, or you could put it in over the next 8 months and be just as thrilled without the risks along the way.

Bobblehead · 05-12-2009, 12:01 PM

Interesting that as of today it looks like the S&P/TSX Composite has recovered about 1/3 of its losses.

52 wk range: 7,479.96 - 15,154.80

As of right now it is hovering just over 10,000.

So have people who held back now missed a big chunk of the rebound?

Qwerty · 05-12-2009, 01:19 PM

My saving grace has been picking up BAC at 3.35 after riding the market all the way down. I have recently upped my positions in quite a few stocks. I may be not be the happiest person at month end if some consolidation takes place but as a longer 2-3 year investment I could not be happier with the holdings I have.

Azure · 05-12-2009, 04:34 PM

I hope a lot of you bought in while the market was down.

Numbers are up across the board. Especially on oil related stock.

Agamemnon · 05-12-2009, 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Azure

I hope a lot of you bought in while the market was down.

Numbers are up across the board. Especially on oil related stock.

How do you figure? TSX dropped 16 points today, and my Suncor stock dropped 1.38/share.

It looks like early March, depending on the stock, was the place to get in. I've been buying ever since November, sell when money gets made, buy when the bad news drags the market down. It seems like a no-brainer to me... unless one thinks the world's economy is actually headed for some kind of general reboot. I don't.

edit: or did you mean numbers are up since... they were down? If that's what you mean then........ obviously.

V · 05-12-2009, 05:28 PM

The market is so overbought right now. Time to take some profits off the table.

Phanuthier · 05-12-2009, 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by V

The market is so overbought right now. Time to take some profits off the table.

how do you figure?

I noticed we are down ~200 or so the past few days, but even still...

Slava · 05-12-2009, 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by V

The market is so overbought right now. Time to take some profits off the table.

I don't think that the market is way overbought right now. Some of you that are active traders probably should take some money off the table (and likely don't need me telling you that!).

The reality is that there are still a lot of fantastic deals out there and you can still buy some companies very cheap. I have found some huge bargains over the past couple of weeks, right in the midst of the rally...so if the market drops over the next couple of months I'll be opening the cheque book a little more.

Azure · 05-12-2009, 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Agamemnon

How do you figure? TSX dropped 16 points today, and my Suncor stock dropped 1.38/share.

It looks like early March, depending on the stock, was the place to get in. I've been buying ever since November, sell when money gets made, buy when the bad news drags the market down. It seems like a no-brainer to me... unless one thinks the world's economy is actually headed for some kind of general reboot. I don't.

edit: or did you mean numbers are up since... they were down? If that's what you mean then........ obviously.

Unless I completely missed the price of oil tanking the past 6 months, I'm pretty sure oil stock dropped a lot with the price of oil going back to $30/bbl.

Now its roughly $60/bbl, and oil stock has been going up too.

Agamemnon · 05-12-2009, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Azure

Unless I completely missed the price of oil tanking the past 6 months, I'm pretty sure oil stock dropped a lot with the price of oil going back to $30/bbl.

Now its roughly $60/bbl, and oil stock has been going up too.

I assumed when you posted that the numbers were up you meant today... I guess I look at the market minute to hour, I didn't realize your statement was just repeating the obvious... yes, oil prices are up. Lots of industries stock values are much higher, energy isn't really special... oil price per barrel wasn't going to stay in the low 30's for long. Some industries have seen much better growth than energy since the beginning of March.

macker · 05-12-2009, 09:16 PM

Lot's of good signs in the market right now. Bernanke said that a positive sign would be when we see the banks going to market to raise money without the help of the government and that is exactly what we have here. Companies are going to market and they are raising more money then they thought they could. There is a lot of one sided sentiment saying that the market needs to pull back here and everyone is looking for this pull back. I thought we might get it today when the S&P 500 dipped below 900 for about 1.5 hours but it closed at 908. Another tell is the CBOE Vix index that measures volatility and it closed at $31.80 so things are less volatile now also. Other good signs : The Canadian dollar, Oil is up 15% this month, Coal is up 45% YTD, Natural gas is surging, Weaker US dollar and Obama's lip service about being green all help the commodity names here which are killing it right now. Even the newspapers are having a hard time comming up with headlines.....I think they prefer the doom and gloom as it is a much easier headline....
The next couple of months should tell us if this is a W shapped correction or a V shapped. If you have any doubles or tripples etc. take some money off of the bases and play with the house money as we surely don't want to get caught stealing

I am thinking that we better make as much money as we can now as surely in the next few years we are going to pay for all of this viagra that the governments have pumped into the markets. It's that you just can't take the effect and make it the cause.

Azure · 05-12-2009, 10:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Agamemnon

I assumed when you posted that the numbers were up you meant today... I guess I look at the market minute to hour, I didn't realize your statement was just repeating the obvious... yes, oil prices are up. Lots of industries stock values are much higher, energy isn't really special... oil price per barrel wasn't going to stay in the low 30's for long. Some industries have seen much better growth than energy since the beginning of March.

Yep, and like I said.....while the price was at $30/bbl....people should have bought in.

V · 05-13-2009, 12:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

how do you figure?

I noticed we are down ~200 or so the past few days, but even still...

All the technicals I follow are showing overbought. I'm expecting a regression back to the mean at least, and that would be a drop to the 9,000 range, which is pretty close to a solid retracement level.

I don't read the fundamentals like you, it's true, but the technicals say pull back. Mind you, they've been saying pullback for a couple weeks now, and after yesterday I figured Ruby Tuesday would rear her ugly head and we'd be looking at a good hit today. Who knows, we'll see where it goes.

Phanuthier · 05-13-2009, 12:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by V

All the technicals I follow are showing overbought. I'm expecting a regression back to the mean at least, and that would be a drop to the 9,000 range, which is pretty close to a solid retracement level.

I don't read the fundamentals like you, it's true, but the technicals say pull back. Mind you, they've been saying pullback for a couple weeks now, and after yesterday I figured Ruby Tuesday would rear her ugly head and we'd be looking at a good hit today. Who knows, we'll see where it goes.

Which technicals are you referring too?

By 9000, are you talking the TSX or DOW or something else?

I've liquidated a bit just in case I wanna buy later, so I'm always nosy for possible info.

V · 05-13-2009, 12:56 AM

Sorry, I'm talking 9,000 for the TSX.

But pick an indicator for the S&P500 or the TSX, and there isn't a lot that isn't reading overbought. Stochastics, MACD, resistance points being approached, MFI, RSI, just the sheer volume of equities that are trading over they're moving averages, they're all saying the same thing. Granted, these indicators should never be taken in isolation, but when it's such an overwhelming message...

To be honest, though, I'm more of a currency guy, and not nearly as familiar with the ebb and flow of the equities market. I think there's enough between the two markets that's transferrable, though