Wild Card Race (Western Conference)

[troutman]

Kings are averaging 1.00 goals per game in the last 5 games, and 3 of those were home games. They are only ahead of ARI and EDM for goals scored in the West.

They can't score goals, and are going on the road a lot. They are playing .470 on the road this year. At that pace they will only earn 7-8 points in 8 remaining road games.

I think we get in at their expense.

[heep223]

Why do some people (including Pinder on the Fan) think that it's going to take 98 points to get in this year?

That has never happened in the history of the league. Doesn't mean it can't happen but it's extremely unlikely.

I think 96 points and we're in. GFG

[polak]

3 teams only need to go around .500 and it they all make 96 points.

Very likely it takes 98 points (Like I've said the whole freaking time).

What happened in the past has zero bearing on how the teams in the stretch drive are going to play.

[Enoch Root]

I think it will take at least 97. The fact that it has never happened before is irrelevant.

Do you believe LA can go at least 7-4 down the stretch? Seems pretty reasonable to me as they are the SC champs and are desperate.

That puts them at 96 points and they are the 9th place team.

I won't sleep soundly until we have 98 points

[sec304]

This is going to go down to the wire. I have tickets to the LA game on April 9th, little did I know in September that this would be 'the game'.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I think it will take at least 97. The fact that it has never happened before is irrelevant.

Do you believe LA can go at least 7-4 down the stretch? Seems pretty reasonable to me as they are the SC champs and are desperate.

That puts them at 96 points and they are the 9th place team.

I won't sleep soundly until we have 98 points

There won't be any games left then that you sleep sound.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by troutman

Kings are averaging 1.00 goals per game in the last 5 games, and 3 of those were home games. They are only ahead of ARI and EDM for goals scored in the West.

They can't score goals, and are going on the road a lot. They are playing .470 on the road this year. At that pace they will only earn 7-8 points in 8 remaining road games.

I think we get in at their expense.

Stop filling me with me hope!!

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by sec304

This is going to go down to the wire. I have tickets to the LA game on April 9th, little did I know in September that this would be 'the game'.

I think the last one in Winn. will be winner take all..

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by heep223

Why do some people (including Pinder on the Fan) think that it's going to take 98 points to get in this year?

That has never happened in the history of the league. Doesn't mean it can't happen but it's extremely unlikely.

I think 96 points and we're in. GFG

While I agree that if the Flames get 96 points they very likely make the playoffs, using historical data and benchmarks may not be the best reasoning. Tank nation going on between Buffalo, Arizona, Edmonton, Carolina and Toronto has skewed the results.

If you look at the 2011-2012 season, for example, Columbus finished last with 65 points. If the tankers keep up their current paces (Toronto with 5 points in their last 10 etc.) the only team that would beat that threshold is Carolina. The bottom feeders are simply terrible this year and that means more points distributed between the higher ranking teams.

[troutman]

I estimate LA will finish with 94 points.

[mrkajz44]

I still think 96 points will get you in. I predict 9th place will be 95 points (so no tiebreakers are in effect) and it will be LA on the outside looking in.

I don't buy the "they are the SC champs from last year, they have to get in!" Realistically, results from last year should have no bearing on this year, when the results this year are consistently worse than in the prior year.

[StrykerSteve]

This is going down to the last game of the season. I'm going on the record as thinking Calgary misses the playoffs. Their goaltending isn't strong enough, and they are routinely outplayed by the stronger teams in the league. As much fun as this season has been, I feel the luck is about to run out.

Sincerely hope I'm wrong.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by polak

What happened in the past has zero bearing on how the teams in the stretch drive are going to play.

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I think it will take at least 97. The fact that it has never happened before is irrelevant.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

While I agree that if the Flames get 96 points they very likely make the playoffs, using historical data and benchmarks may not be the best reasoning. Tank nation going on between Buffalo, Arizona, Edmonton, Carolina and Toronto has skewed the results.

If you look at the 2011-2012 season, for example, Columbus finished last with 65 points. If the tankers keep up their current paces (Toronto with 5 points in their last 10 etc.) the only team that would beat that threshold is Carolina. The bottom feeders are simply terrible this year and that means more points distributed between the higher ranking teams.

All great points, particularly the latter re: tank nation. I still do think 96 will get in though, with the tiebreak.

Either way we can look back at this in a few weeks and see!

[J epworth]

Originally Posted by troutman

Kings are averaging 1.00 goals per game in the last 5 games, and 3 of those were home games. They are only ahead of ARI and EDM for goals scored in the West.

They can't score goals, and are going on the road a lot. They are playing .470 on the road this year. At that pace they will only earn 7-8 points in 8 remaining road games.

I think we get in at their expense.

The problem is LA has actually been better on the road than home the last couple months, I looked at it yesterday so I'm just going off of memory, but since the start of February LA is something like 8-4-1 on the road, scoring more on the road than home. Their poor road record came mainly during that time when they were up against the cap because of Voynov, since then they've been competent and getting better on the road.

Still hoping they end up going 1-4 on this road trip, think the only game they for sure win is tonight against NJ.

[PeteMoss]

They score more on the road (slightly), but they give up almost 0.5 goals more per game on the road.

They are also playing some teams that are good at home.

Even New Jersey is a pretty good team at home (18-11-8), NYR (23-8-5), NYI (23-12-0), Minny (20-11-5) and Chicago (22-9-5) on this road trip.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by J epworth

The problem is LA has actually been better on the road than home the last couple months, I looked at it yesterday so I'm just going off of memory, but since the start of February LA is something like 8-4-1 on the road, scoring more on the road than home. Their poor road record came mainly during that time when they were up against the cap because of Voynov, since then they've been competent and getting better on the road.

Still hoping they end up going 1-4 on this road trip, think the only game they for sure win is tonight against NJ.

Yup, their road play has drastically improved over the last month or so.

[kevman]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I think it will take at least 97. The fact that it has never happened before is irrelevant.

Do you believe LA can go at least 7-4 down the stretch? Seems pretty reasonable to me as they are the SC champs and are desperate.

That puts them at 96 points and they are the 9th place team.

I won't sleep soundly until we have 98 points

Calgary has a 3 game lead on the ROW tie break with LA. If LA goes 7-4 they finish with 96 points. Calgary therefore only needs to go 6-4 to get to 96 points and make the playoffs. I still believe 96 points gets the job done.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I still think 96 points will get you in. I predict 9th place will be 95 points (so no tiebreakers are in effect) and it will be LA on the outside looking in.

I don't buy the "they are the SC champs from last year, they have to get in!" Realistically, results from last year should have no bearing on this year, when the results this year are consistently worse than in the prior year.

You don't think experience and confidence from having done it before count for anything at crunch time?

All I will say to that is: I disagree.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by kevman

Calgary has a 3 game lead on the ROW tie break with LA. If LA goes 7-4 they finish with 96 points. Calgary therefore only needs to go 6-4 to get to 96 points and make the playoffs. I still believe 96 points gets the job done.

Yes, I know the math. I used that example of LA getting to 96 because I think they get at least that. I fully expect they will exceed that, but just used it as the 'less than 97 base line'.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by troutman

I estimate LA will finish with 94 points.

Lol. "This estimate is based on a methodology derived from my hopes and dreams of playoff hockey."

I'm not saying you're wrong, but if Winnipeg loses 3 straight and LAK win their next 3, everyone currently banking on staying ahead of the Kings will change their tune to "the Flames will get in, I see Winnipeg missing out".