CP Lockout Mafia - Game Over - Players Win!

[Aeneas]

Originally Posted by activeStick

You posted earlier that you tracked octo and your results were interesting and wanted him to answer for it. Octo however, has submitted evidence that he was offline before Night started until today which means you couldn't have found anything interesting at all.

This is of course assuming octo can't perform Night actions if he's offline.

So you were trying to create suspicion on him but octo has proved it was a lie.

Unless I'm missing something?

I tracked him, I received no result. That is interesting as I thought he was the serial killer guy. Never lied.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Confirmation bias:

This is the element of the game I find hardest right now. Every new piece of information can be interpreted in two ways, because it could be legitimate, or it could be misdirection. And the more it pushes towards sincerity, the more it looks like mis-information. If there are three mafia left, my belief has been for a while that it's Aeneas, UCB, and now Wood. My naturai instinct is to interpret the information in a way that supports my bias.

So when I see Aeneas vote UCB first thing in the morning, this looks like an attempt to distance UCB if Aeneas is lynched and turned out to be mafia. Same with Wood suspecting Aeneas today, or the report about Stazzy - which could be authentic or could be Wood trying to seem trusting of Stazzy enough that if Stazzy is voted out and turns out to be players, it exonerates Wood. I'm particularly skeptical of posts early in a 'day' because this is when the mafia's advantage of planning is at its greatest. They can better formulate plans of how they can control the day.

Of course, it's possible that Aeneas accusing Stazzy, and then Stazzy's whole conversation with Halifax Drunk yesterday and then failed roleblock attempt today could have been misinformation, too. (I recommend rereading his conversation with HD yesterday - it seems authentic to me, but like I say, confirmation bias).





So, trying to take my on my own confirmation bias: if Wood and UCB are totally uninvolved (which I admit is a solid possibility), then that means we need to talk about who else is a serious suspect.

UCB's innocence slight exonerates Agulati, based on his post here:
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=968
Which I can't see Agulati saying if he's mafia, unless UCB is too.

If Wood is innocent then assume he's telling the truth about his message from last night. If the message is true, then it does seem more like a mafia plant. Anduril's version raises some questions: why was Anduril's so vague and Wood's specific? This makes is seem like a mafia plant. If Anduril were mafia and Stazzy were innocent, Anduril would make a claim that would make the claim about Stazzy seem true. And if Anduril were mafia and Stazzy were mafia, then the mafia would have sent a post that absolved Stazzy, not one that incriminated him, since he couldn't have been sure that Wood would make.

So we've got a list now:
(Not including Aeneas because him trying to take me down with false tracking claims is, for me, enough to remove all doubt).

Octothorp posts against Timbo, Halifax Drunk, before votes.
Wood (assumed innocent for this exercise)
UCB (assumed innocent for this exercise)
Agulati - posts against Timbo before voting, post defending UCB
Anduril - strongly exonerated by Wood claims and own post
Stazzy - exonerated somewhat by Wood/Anduril claims, HD attacks
Dissentowner - only a suspect if aeneas and halifax drunk attacks were misdirection, which seems unlikely.
Activestick - solid voting/posting record

So that leaves us with this: 8 people, all of whom have solid claims to being players. If tomorrow leads to another two lynchings, then please, whoever survives the night, question absolutely all of your assumptions. It means at least one mafia guy is remaining and they are under deep cover.

If people are patient enough to wait for tomorrow (calendar tomorrow, not game tomorrow) I can post a more thorough 'book' on each player.

[Mazrim]

Do not quote PMs. Paraphrase them only.

Also, I did not make this note in the rules and it is my own fault, but for future reference in this game, do not use Truth or Dare/Toxx Clauses ("If I'm mafia I'll eat my hat" type posts)/Forum Systems (like Online status) to confirm yourself. I will let octothorp go since it's too late to go back on that one, but keep it in mind from now on.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Wood

The message is "authentic". I got it from Mazrim about an hour before the game reopened and I was waiting to post it, I was obviously pretty excited cause I had something new. At first I actually took it as fact, and I PMd UCB saying we need to get Stazzy. After reading into it more and asking if it could possibly be from mafia, I realized it most likely was

The exact message is:

"Hot/cold streak has been confirmed as NOT being a valid power in this game. Someone is misleading us."

Interesting. The wording of this and the Anduril message makes it seem like 'not naming any players' is probably a requirement of the ability. Trying to think of an explanation for a player being right about Stazzy's ability but wrong in telling Anduril that he's barking up the wrong tree about Timbo. Some sort of role-cop ability could discover that Stazzy's not 'hot and cold'. They might have investigated Timbo as being a 'bus driver', and then read that bus driver typically a 'town' ability.
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Bus_Driver


If the message is from a player, then they should step up tomorrow and say what they know, as Stazzy is likely to be one of the next suspects. Alternately, if a confirmed player is killed tonight who has a role that seems consistent with this, then I think that's moderate reason to believe it. If no evidence of where this message has come from has surfaced by tomorrow, then I think it's safe to assume it's mafia misdirection, and that Stazzy is not mafia (unless it's double misdirection (seeding a suspicion that will later be disproved), but given that Stazzy couldn't be sure you'd go public with it, double-misdirection would be really risky).

I think the Hot-and-Cold streak ability seems just to unusual for Stazzy to make up (although making up the roleblocker part to hide another ability is possible).

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Mazrim

Do not quote PMs. Paraphrase them only.

Also, I did not make this note in the rules and it is my own fault, but for future reference in this game, do not use Truth or Dare/Toxx Clauses ("If I'm mafia I'll eat my hat" type posts)/Forum Systems (like Online status) to confirm yourself. I will let octothorp go since it's too late to go back on that one, but keep it in mind from now on.

Oops, sorry!

Next time we do this, it might be worth having everyone agree to turn on 'invisible' mode before the game and keep it on for the entire game, as it would remove a lot of the elements like online status, private-message stalking, etc, and make it just about what people reveal in thread and PM.

[agulati]

^^that sounds like a good idea next time onwards.

I am also leaning towards Aeneas, but will wait for Octo's "book"

[stazzy33]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Interesting. The wording of this and the Anduril message makes it seem like 'not naming any players' is probably a requirement of the ability. Trying to think of an explanation for a player being right about Stazzy's ability but wrong in telling Anduril that he's barking up the wrong tree about Timbo. Some sort of role-cop ability could discover that Stazzy's not 'hot and cold'. They might have investigated Timbo as being a 'bus driver', and then read that bus driver typically a 'town' ability.
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Bus_Driver


If the message is from a player, then they should step up tomorrow and say what they know, as Stazzy is likely to be one of the next suspects. Alternately, if a confirmed player is killed tonight who has a role that seems consistent with this, then I think that's moderate reason to believe it. If no evidence of where this message has come from has surfaced by tomorrow, then I think it's safe to assume it's mafia misdirection, and that Stazzy is not mafia (unless it's double misdirection (seeding a suspicion that will later be disproved), but given that Stazzy couldn't be sure you'd go public with it, double-misdirection would be really risky).

I think the Hot-and-Cold streak ability seems just to unusual for Stazzy to make up (although making up the roleblocker part to hide another ability is possible).

I am able to prove the hot-cold streak after the next kill as I promised I would send a message during the night (through Mazrim) of "This is Stazzy33, I am a player."

Aeneas has started acting strange just like all the other mafioso that we have encountered.

Vote: Aeneas

[Mazrim]

Vote Count:
With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch. It takes 3 votes to deadline lynch.

Hasn't Voted (5):
activeStick, agulati, octothorp, dissentowner, Anduril

Voted:
Aeneas (3): Wood, undercoverbrother, stazzy33
undercoverbrother (1): Aeneas

Deadline is April 5th, 10:00 PM Mountain Time.

[Timbo]

*---DeadPost---*
Bfruurrpphttt! (sounds of gas escaping from my fetid corpse)

Really enjoying this from my grave
Cheers Timbo

[Anduril]

Originally Posted by Wood

I think we have a pretty much guaranteed vote here with Aeneas, but after that who do we think is left? I think it makes sense for there to be 1 mafia left, and one assasin. One of those should be Aeneas. We'll know if only one player is killed at night

Let's not vote Aeneas out yet cause I'd like to see what octothorp has to say, me and UCB are both on board with pretty much everything he's saying

Considering the lack of information in this late stage of the game, the next best thing is to vote off Aeneas and move from there. Obviously not ideal if he were to be a player but octothorp has basically covered all of the recent bits of information as well as its significance.
Whoever is the last mafia has certainly done a better job blending in than his comrades.

[Anduril]

Of course, I meant best thing in regards in anticipating the next target/move after (assuming) Aeneas.
Less noise but every comment will be even more scrutinized.

[agulati]

At the current rate Aeneas is almost certainly gone. The reason I think we should hold up pulling the trigger is that we could possibly lose 1 or 2 players over the night. It might be a better idea to make sure of knowing where everyone stands prior to offing Aeneas

[dissentowner]

I'm just not sure what is left to analyze, octo pretty much covered it.

[octothorp]

Sorry, I'm not going to be able to add much more information today, my real-life schedule didn't work out like I thought it would today.

I'm okay with going ahead and voting if everyone else is. So much depends on what happens over night: is Aeneas mafia like we still expect? Are there still two kills, and are they both players?


If people have specific questions they would like answered that would help them decide on what they want to do (both in terms of night actions and future votes), go ahead and ask them. Although you may want to ask multiple, unrelated questions at the same time so that you don't tip your hand too much about what you're planning to do.

[activeStick]

I think we've been pretty solid on weeding out and identifying the Mafia so far with our lynch votes thanks to octo and others with the analysis and it seems most of us are aligned with Aeneas as the next one so I'm onboard with him as the next to go.

The more worrisome thing to me is the remaining 1-2 enemies who could be a mixture of Mafia and assassin if there is one.

We should probably talk through a little more on strategies to identify the assassin... Any ideas?

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by activeStick

I think we've been pretty solid on weeding out and identifying the Mafia so far with our lynch votes thanks to octo and others with the analysis and it seems most of us are aligned with Aeneas as the next one so I'm onboard with him as the next to go.

The more worrisome thing to me is the remaining 1-2 enemies who could be a mixture of Mafia and assassin if there is one.

We should probably talk through a little more on strategies to identify the assassin... Any ideas?

I think it will require deciding how much we trust people's roles. (For those who haven't revealed their roles yet, revealing and demonstrating your role is something you may need to do at some point.)

Octothorp: claims one-shot kill (used on huntingwhale)
Wood: claims tirepumper/mason (confirmed by undercoverbrother)
Undercoverbrother: claims tirepumper/mason (confirmed by wood)
Aeneas: claims tracker
Stazzy: claims hot/cold streak - roleblocker / (disputed in secret message to Wood), can confirm posting part tonight or role
Dissentowner: claims coroner, claims used on Captain Crunch
Agulati: claims one-shot roleblocker, claims used on Stazzy


I think we're all suspicious on Aeneas.

Stazzy suggests that Agulati's ability is suspiciously underpowered.

Dissentowner's is plausible given that it's a natural counter for Drake's janitor role.

Stazzy's role is disputed by a secret message Wood received. As well, even if Stazzy proves his posting ability, it doesn't mean that his roleblocker ability is confirmed. (Could plausibly be a serial-killer who can post a message to the players every other night), which would be an interesting combination of powers.

I've made my suspicions about Wood and Undercoverbrother known: I believe they're telling the truth that they have an ability that allows them to communicate via PM. But whether that's as masons by a different name, mafia, or some independent faction like siblings, I don't know.

So we have reason to suspect that one undeclared role is an ability to send an anonymous PM per night, and this may either be a mafia decoy ability, or may be linked to a rolecop.

ActiveStick and Anduril: undeclared (unless I missed it for either of you). My hunch is that if either of you are the serial-killer, you would have already made a role-declare as an attempt to blend in. But that doesn't exonerate either of you, just a hunch.

We also need to keep in mind that people who are lying about their ability might be doing it because they are mafia, because they are a serial-killer, or because they are players who have an ability that would make them an instant target if they declared it. I think anybody in this situation (and you guys who are undeclared) will need to think carefully about when to declare it. If no good candidates emerge tonight, then tomorrow may be the right time.

It's in an independent serial-killer's best interests to kill mafia, and players with relatively proven abilities, in my opinion. Although if the serial-killer fears some as-yet undeclared role, that would be an option too.

[activeStick]

I'm willing to do as the group wishes. I'm with the Players without a doubt and I get the feeling that most of you believe me.

However, octo brings up a valid point that I have not yet revealed my power. He is correct that I feel I'd become an instant target if I revealed my role, but as mentioned I will reveal if the group does not trust me.

I've been hoping to hold off the reveal until we are down to 1-2 Mafia people to hopefully allow us to eliminate them and the serial killer so that my reveal wouldn't lead to my getting killed, but thinking about this now, we're pretty much at this point now.

Talking through it, I'll just reveal: I am a one-shot bulletproof player. This means I have immunity to a night kill once but the vest is gone after the first attempt on my life.

[dissentowner]

I think we are on the same page on this vote and can't see anything that will change my vote
Vote: Aeneas

[stazzy33]

Originally Posted by activeStick

I'm willing to do as the group wishes. I'm with the Players without a doubt and I get the feeling that most of you believe me.

However, octo brings up a valid point that I have not yet revealed my power. He is correct that I feel I'd become an instant target if I revealed my role, but as mentioned I will reveal if the group does not trust me.

I've been hoping to hold off the reveal until we are down to 1-2 Mafia people to hopefully allow us to eliminate them and the serial killer so that my reveal wouldn't lead to my getting killed, but thinking about this now, we're pretty much at this point now.

Talking through it, I'll just reveal: I am a one-shot bulletproof player. This means I have immunity to a night kill once but the vest is gone after the first attempt on my life.

Do you know when you have been "shot at" or does that remain secret?

[octothorp]

Four votes on Aeneas now. One more lynches him.

Very useful ability, Activestick. Safe to assume you haven't been targeted yet or we'd see a one-kill night, right?