Malaysia Jet missing-Officials conclude crash in Indian ocean/all lives presumed lost

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Wormius

But what would the point be of even trying to avoid it? Wouldn't the outcome be the same? He would just get shot down instead of running out of fuel.

Perhaps the mystery was part of the sick plan.

[KevanGuy]

Originally Posted by Wormius

But what would the point be of even trying to avoid it? Wouldn't the outcome be the same? He would just get shot down instead of running out of fuel.

Well, it worked didn't it? Isn't that why they've had so much trouble finding the plane?

[killer_carlson]

Originally Posted by Wormius

But what would the point be of even trying to avoid it? Wouldn't the outcome be the same? He would just get shot down instead of running out of fuel.

I guess I subscribe to the theory that there is no where on the planet that the Chinese, Americans, Russians, Brits, Indians, etc don't have a radar - whether they admit it or not. A pilot would not necessarily know about the unofficial ones (nor do I).

I suspect a few people know where that plane went down, but for security reasons they are not permitted to come forward because it would expose that the area is being watched or expose where the radar is.

[T@T]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

I guess I subscribe to the theory that there is no where on the planet that the Chinese, Americans, Russians, Brits, Indians, etc don't have a radar - whether they admit it or not. A pilot would not necessarily know about the unofficial ones (nor do I).

I suspect a few people know where that plane went down, but for security reasons they are not permitted to come forward because it would expose that the area is being watched or expose where the radar is.

I don't by that, the Aussies,Americans and Chinese have spent 100's of millions looking for that plane. If someone knew where it went down I'm sure they would secretly pass on the GPS coordinates to the search party.

[jammies]

A radar installation needs somewhere to be based. There is no land where that plane was flying, it doesn't matter how much you spend if there is nowhere to put your radar.

It's not like the US is flying AWACS planes to completely cover the globe. Some of you overestimate the capabilities of the military by an extremely large margin.

Sent from my ASUS_Z00AD using Tapatalk

[Acey]

Satellite ADS-B will be up soon and we'll have worldwide tracking of all airplanes. All planes need to have ADS-B by 2020; pretty much all in Europe and Asia do, just North America lagging but we'll get there. So it's almost done aircraft-side, just have to get the necessary equipment up sky-side and on the ground and we'll be good to go.

Check this out... a few weeks ago a successful trial run of satellite ADS-B tracking was done by FlightRadar24. All the airplanes in blue are out of radar range over the Atlantic, and their ADS-B (GPS position, essentially) signal was picked up by a satellite. If something were to happen to any of them, their position to ~10 meters is known, assuming their transponder stays live till they hit the water.

As always, nothing can be done if a homicidal captain wants to turn off the transponder. Read more about the trial here.

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by KevanGuy

Well, it worked didn't it? Isn't that why they've had so much trouble finding the plane?

I just don't understand the point, if it was a suicide and to kill people on board, why would he feel the need to avoid radar? The result, regardless will be same. It would have "worked" if the plane had been tracked for the whole route with an escort. Once the pilot decided what he wanted to do, everybody's fate was sealed. If his secondary goal was to create some kind of mystery, okay.

[Flabbibulin]

Originally Posted by Wormius

I just don't understand the point, if it was a suicide and to kill people on board, why would he feel the need to avoid radar? The result, regardless will be same. It would have "worked" if the plane had been tracked for the whole route with an escort. Once the pilot decided what he wanted to do, everybody's fate was sealed. If his secondary goal was to create some kind of mystery, okay.

Well, what difference does it make if we don't understand why he did this trial run? The point is that he apparently did and we can use logic then to conclude that he was probably behind the deliberate downing of the plane. My guess is he wasnt concerned in the least that the practice run would be discovered one day.

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by Flabbibulin

Well, what difference does it make if we don't understand why he did this trial run? The point is that he apparently did and we can use logic then to conclude that he was probably behind the deliberate downing of the plane. My guess is he wasnt concerned in the least that the practice run would be discovered one day.

I guess I just expected that some of this would make sense. I mean, trial runs to avoid radars? What is even the point of that? Even if we try to put ourselves in his shoes, why would you do that? Literally as soon as he is up in the air with the landing gear up, what can anybody do?

All of these things coming to light seem a little convenient to provide closure for the victims families and general public.

[Acey]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

I guess I subscribe to the theory that there is no where on the planet that the Chinese, Americans, Russians, Brits, Indians, etc don't have a radar - whether they admit it or not. A pilot would not necessarily know about the unofficial ones (nor do I).

It's a physical impossibility at the altitude commercial airliners fly at for ground based secondary radar to reach more than 500 km, give or take. This is NORAD radar for example, whose range Wikipedia lists at 470 km... whatever. Still can't put them in water. ATC secondary radar (that lets you actually identify a transponder code which can then be correlated to a flight plan to identify the aircraft) has comparable range.

Can't remember if it was this thread another, but I mentioned the radar NORAD has up in the Northwest Territories/Nunavut that has been upgraded since the Cold War days. It is a fairly regular thing for NORAD to call the Edmonton area control centre cause there's a glitch in the system and they need confirmation that an aircraft they see is not Russians coming to blow stuff up. It's always Japan Airlines or Air China or some other aircraft that we expected to be at that place at that time on a given transponder code, so we can tell NORAD it's all good.

Here's a map of the NORAD radar sites that form the North Warning System... pretty impenetrable so I think we're good on the Russian front, but you still can't put them in water and they still can't reach very far which is why there's so many. And they still need to call Nav Canada to figure out mistakes if a commercial flight screws up.



So I guess what I'm saying is, if somebody knows or was able to pinpoint where MH370 went down, they didn't obtain that position via AESA or SSR ground based radar. Satellites are a whole new ball game and I have no idea about the surveillance capabilities of those at this point, or in March '14... I just know about the ones that are being deployed for air traffic control purposes and my post above is just a snippet of that.

[Cube Inmate]

I think our modern era of instant communication, Google Earth, and being able to travel halfway around the Earth in <24 hours has given people (me included) an artificially shrunken perspective on how big the world really is, and how much info we have about it at any one time.

My first reaction when this went down was "how do you lose a freakin' jetliner???" My thinking now is that it's a bloody technological miracle that we don't lose more of them.

[Acey]

Originally Posted by Cube Inmate

My thinking now is that it's a bloody technological miracle that we don't lose more of them.

This 10000%. Being in the business where we try to keep airplanes safe it's a sentiment I try not to think about. Even in Canada, over more than half this country from north of Yellowknife... we don't know exactly where the airplanes are. We know where they were 45 minutes ago, and where they were supposed to be going.

If they don't show up... well dammit.

[Maritime Q-Scout]

Originally Posted by Acey

Satellite ADS-B will be up soon and we'll have worldwide tracking of all airplanes. All planes need to have ADS-B by 2020; pretty much all in Europe and Asia do, just North America lagging but we'll get there. So it's almost done aircraft-side, just have to get the necessary equipment up sky-side and on the ground and we'll be good to go.

Check this out... a few weeks ago a successful trial run of satellite ADS-B tracking was done by FlightRadar24. All the airplanes in blue are out of radar range over the Atlantic, and their ADS-B (GPS position, essentially) signal was picked up by a satellite. If something were to happen to any of them, their position to ~10 meters is known, assuming their transponder stays live till they hit the water.

As always, nothing can be done if a homicidal captain wants to turn off the transponder. Read more about the trial here.

is it just me or is it weird that the A380 above Paamiut is blue?

[ken0042]

Originally Posted by Wormius

I guess I just expected that some of this would make sense. I mean, trial runs to avoid radars? What is even the point of that? Even if we try to put ourselves in his shoes, why would you do that? Literally as soon as he is up in the air with the landing gear up, what can anybody do?

Insurance money could be one reason. If a pilot dies on a flight that disappeared under mysterious circumstances, his family would get paid. Especially in a work related accident. If he makes it apparent that it is suicide, not only does his family lose out on money, they also might be the target of some anger from the families of the passengers.

I have no facts to base this on; just my guess.

[Acey]

Originally Posted by Maritime Q-Scout

is it just me or is it weird that the A380 above Paamiut is blue?

Not sure what's up with that anomaly, the ones closer in might be in range of ground based ADS-B receivers which would then override the satellite, or they could be in a dead spot, or maybe he was up higher.

[MoneyGuy]

Originally Posted by ken0042

Insurance money could be one reason. If a pilot dies on a flight that disappeared under mysterious circumstances, his family would get paid. Especially in a work related accident. If he makes it apparent that it is suicide, not only does his family lose out on money, they also might be the target of some anger from the families of the passengers.

I have no facts to base this on; just my guess.

I don't know how it is in other countries but that's not how insurance works here (the suicide part).

[KevanGuy]

Originally Posted by Wormius

I guess I just expected that some of this would make sense. I mean, trial runs to avoid radars? What is even the point of that? Even if we try to put ourselves in his shoes, why would you do that? Literally as soon as he is up in the air with the landing gear up, what can anybody do?

All of these things coming to light seem a little convenient to provide closure for the victims families and general public.

Maybe he was just curious how far he'd get? Who knows. It doesnt really matter.

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by KevanGuy

Maybe he was just curious how far he'd get? Who knows. It doesnt really matter.

I am just saying that it seems far-fetched.

[ken0042]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

I don't know how it is in other countries but that's not how insurance works here (the suicide part).

Well life insurance is one part of it, I was also thinking of settlement from the airline to families, as well as workers comp.

I know suicide does not always mean life insurance won't be paid out, but I would think dying in the commission of a serious crime would.

[Tsawwassen]

Some interesting news to this 4 year old mystery.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/what-happened-to-mh370-canadian-duo-believe-they-have-the-answer-1.3939463
http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/ottawa-air-crash-investigators-say-theyve-solved-the-mystery-of-flight-mh370
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/22/mh370-australian-official-refutes-theory-that-pilot-ditched-aircraft