[News] With the 21st overall pick Flames select C Mark Jankowski

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

Has any NCAA prospect Forward with comparable points per game stats after 3 seasons ever made an impact in the NHL? (i.e became a top 6 forward)
It's an honest question....I am rooting for Jankowski, but his becoming an impact player for us seems pretty unlikely at this point.

Kevin Hayes, this season?

[442scotty]

I hope the flames don't regret not signing him this year... Maybe he wants to go to the leafs after his 4th year or anywhere he desires...

[polak]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Kevin Hayes, this season?

On top of that, Hayes had a lot of help in NCAA from some scrub named Gaudreau.

[FanIn80]

Kevin Hayes has been looking pretty good on his own with NYR this year.

[dfsflamesfan]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

Has any NCAA prospect Forward with comparable points per game stats after 3 seasons ever made an impact in the NHL? (i.e became a top 6 forward)
It's an honest question....I am rooting for Jankowski, but his becoming an impact player for us seems pretty unlikely at this point.

Not sure if he's considered a top 6 forward, but Riley Sheahan from Detriot has extremely similar numbers as Jankowski in his three years in College in Notre Dame. What makes this creepily and scarily similar is that they were both drafted 21st overall (2010, and 2012 drafts) and both were born in St. Catherine's.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Blake Wheeler had 35 points in 44 games
Jankowski 27 in 37.

Very comparable.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

Has any NCAA prospect Forward with comparable points per game stats after 3 seasons ever made an impact in the NHL? (i.e became a top 6 forward)
It's an honest question....I am rooting for Jankowski, but his becoming an impact player for us seems pretty unlikely at this point.

Why does Jankowski need to be a top 6 forward? This cyclical argument comes down to that very simple question.

The better question is: What are the chances that players picked outside of the top 10 becoming impact forwards? Probably pretty remote if you break down the data.

It's ridiculous but I think this debate will rage on for years even if Janko becomes a bigger version of Backlund (that would be a smashing success even in hindsight).

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

Has any NCAA prospect Forward with comparable points per game stats after 3 seasons ever made an impact in the NHL? (i.e became a top 6 forward)
It's an honest question....I am rooting for Jankowski, but his becoming an impact player for us seems pretty unlikely at this point.

Kevin Hayes:

• Freshman: 14 P in 31 GP / 0.45 PPG (14th on team)
• Sophomore: 28 P in 44 GP / 0.64 PPG (9th on team) -- NCAA Champ (1G/1A in Frozen Four)
• Junior: 25 P in 27 GP / 0.93 PPG (6th on team)

Jankowski:

• Freshman: 18 P in 34 GP / 0.53 PPG (5th on team)
• Sophomore: 25 P in 39 GP / 0.64 PPG (3rd on team)
• Junior: 27 P in 37 GP / 0.73 PPG (5th on team) -- NCAA Champ (2G/1A in Frozen Four, named to All-Tournament team)

Jankowski had an injury early in the season (plus whatever kept him out of the Prospects camp last summer), and he really struggled scoring goals early. He turned that around and scored a few key goals in Providence's march for the Championship.

Now, don't expect Jankowski to have a senior year like Hayes had because he won't be playing with anyone even close to Gaudreau.

Hayes stuck with the Rangers all season and was 7th in points on the President's Trophy Champion. So, I guess he's not a top-six forward, but I don't think anyone would be upset if Jankowski were able to have a rookie year like Hayes' in a couple of years.

[dfsflamesfan]

Originally Posted by dfsflamesfan

Not sure if he's considered a top 6 forward, but Riley Sheahan from Detriot has extremely similar numbers as Jankowski in his three years in College in Notre Dame. What makes this creepily and scarily similar is that they were both drafted 21st overall (2010, and 2012 drafts) and both were born in St. Catherine's.

Riley Sheahan:
Freshman: 37GP-6G-11A-17P
Sophomore: 40GP-5G-17A-22P
Junior: 37GP-9G-16A-25P

Mark Jankowski:
Freshman: 34GP-7G-11A-18P
Sophomore: 39GP-13G-12A-25P
Junior: 37GP-8G-19A-27P

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Kevin Hayes, this season?

Great example..... Jankowski puts in 27 goals and 65 pts this season and somewhere when he get over 40 pts in 30 games he loses the Flames phone number.


There was no way that the Hawks were pushing bonus money and a incentive contract at Hayes after his first 3 years in the NCAA.... the same way that the Flames didn't have a plane waiting for Jankowski at the last game of the frozen 4.

On the other hand Flames went and signed Gillies , a goalie, rather than let him finish out his NCAA career and become a UFA next July.

Either the Flames or Jankowski did not think that he was ready for the AHL.

Gillies would not have been hurt by playing another year in the NCAA. He is targeted for a year or 2 in the AHL.... the first likely as the backup to Ortio.

Another example would be Bill Arnold... He had .76 ppg his first 3 years (compared to Jankowski's .64) before his 53 pts in 40 game senior year.

He did not get called up to 1 Flame game last season.

Had Jankowski signed with the Flames this year who would be ahead on the depth chart? Arnold or Jankowski?

If Jankowski is not close to the top 10 players in the NCAA this coming season the Flames will let him sign elsewhere and take the 2nd round pick in 2017.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

Silly argument? I think it's very relevant when you see the crap list of centre prospects at the time. We could of drafted a player who would instantly move behind Backlund on the depth chart. Instead we have Jankowski who isn't currently one of the teams top 10 prospects.

Team's already overloaded with B-C level prospects like Detroit and Chicago could make this pick. Calgary, not so much.

Agreed, Risk means likelihood of busting. Jankowski was drafted out of a High school program. HIGH SCHOOL!!! Drafting out of high school is 10 times out of 10 a risky pick. Did you ever see him play against actual competition prior to the draft?

You agree that he was a project pick. Sorry to say that a project pick is a risky pick. The more time you need to develop a player, the higher chance you have of something going wrong in the process. A lot needed to go right for Janko to hit his ceiling and still does.

It's been asked, but I will ask it again: who?

The only name you've mentioned that was available at 14 is Girgensons. The other Cs available were Gaunce and Samuelson.

None of these players would have 'instantly moved behind Backlund on the depth chart'.

Jankowski may surpass Backlund on the depth chart.

[FlameZilla]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

I said safer picks with top-6 potential meaning they have a higher chance of reaching their ceiling..

And as was stated above, the Flames had 14th selection and could of drafted Girgensons with that pick, so my point stands. Buffalo has handled him terribly, but that shouldn't factor into this discussion.

Thanks for trying to nitpick my posts, but it's not working out for you.

Buffalo has handled him badly, yes, but you were suggesting he could have slotted in nicely behind Backlund on the depth chart. [sarcasm] Sure, that would have worked out much better for us [/sarcasm]

A project like Jankowski was drafted because the management at the time recognised that there was no short-term fix. No one they drafted that year was going to step straight in and make the Flames a playoff team in 2012-13. The path to the playoffs and eventually contending for a Cup was at least 5 years away, and there was no one in the system with any hope of becoming a top 6 center. Rather than filling the team with pluggers they decided to take a risk on someone who they thought had the potential to be a 1st line C.

Girgensons was touted as a 3rd liner with an outside chance of being a top 6 player. I'd say he's a very safe bet to be a pretty average 3rd line checker. As far as the weak 2012 draft goes, he is looking like a pretty good pick.

I don't think this was just Weisbrod & Feaster. Craig Button had him ranked at #16 on Craigslist & you have to think that was partially due to conversations with Todd, who must have had a pretty high opinion of the kid as well.

It's way too early to say the Jankowski pick was a waste. Judging by how many people wrote off Gaudreau when he was picked, then firmly naysaid him through 3 years of NCAA, you would think people would learn a lesson & at least wait until the prospect had a chance to go pro before completely writing him off.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Great example..... Jankowski puts in 27 goals and 65 pts this season and somewhere when he get over 40 pts in 30 games he loses the Flames phone number.


There was no way that the Hawks were pushing bonus money and a incentive contract at Hayes after his first 3 years in the NCAA.... the same way that the Flames didn't have a plane waiting for Jankowski at the last game of the frozen 4.

On the other hand Flames went and signed Gillies , a goalie, rather than let him finish out his NCAA career and become a UFA next July.

Either the Flames or Jankowski did not think that he was ready for the AHL.

Gillies would not have been hurt by playing another year in the NCAA. He is targeted for a year or 2 in the AHL.... the first likely as the backup to Ortio.

Another example would be Bill Arnold... He had .76 ppg his first 3 years (compared to Jankowski's .64) before his 53 pts in 40 game senior year.

He did not get called up to 1 Flame game last season.

Had Jankowski signed with the Flames this year who would be ahead on the depth chart? Arnold or Jankowski?

If Jankowski is not close to the top 10 players in the NCAA this coming season the Flames will let him sign elsewhere and take the 2nd round pick in 2017.

Or he plays another year in the NCAA, because that is what is best for him and the Flames and was the plan all along, and then signs with the Flames, because that is what is best for him and the Flames and was the plan all along.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Great example..... Jankowski puts in 27 goals and 65 pts this season and somewhere when he get over 40 pts in 30 games he loses the Flames phone number.

Okay, great stuff ricardodw. That's an entirely different issue/worry then what I was talking about. You're all over the map.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Great example..... Jankowski puts in 27 goals and 65 pts this season and somewhere when he get over 40 pts in 30 games he loses the Flames phone number.


There was no way that the Hawks were pushing bonus money and a incentive contract at Hayes after his first 3 years in the NCAA.... the same way that the Flames didn't have a plane waiting for Jankowski at the last game of the frozen 4.

On the other hand Flames went and signed Gillies , a goalie, rather than let him finish out his NCAA career and become a UFA next July.

Either the Flames or Jankowski did not think that he was ready for the AHL.

Gillies would not have been hurt by playing another year in the NCAA. He is targeted for a year or 2 in the AHL.... the first likely as the backup to Ortio.

Another example would be Bill Arnold... He had .76 ppg his first 3 years (compared to Jankowski's .64) before his 53 pts in 40 game senior year.

He did not get called up to 1 Flame game last season.

Had Jankowski signed with the Flames this year who would be ahead on the depth chart? Arnold or Jankowski?

If Jankowski is not close to the top 10 players in the NCAA this coming season the Flames will let him sign elsewhere and take the 2nd round pick in 2017.

This is a great example of a typical ricardo post. A bunch of random stats followed by a conclusion which barely relates to anything posted above..

While I agree that Jankowski won't sign with the Flames if he ends up with Hayes-like numbers (which is impossible without a linemate of Gaudreau's caliber), it's not because of any reasons you've posted above.

If Jankowski shows that he can be a top-6 on a decent team, you better believe he would still be behind Monahan and Bennett. The Flames no longer have a glaring weakness at centre regardless if Jankowski pans out or not. It's as simple as that. Arnold was never in his career projected to be a top-6 player and is a late round pick, so I'm not sure why you've brought him up.

And where are you getting this Gillies nonsense from? Gillies will be the starter in the AHL next year with Ortio fighting for the NHL starter job and getting the backup role at the very least. Gillies has nothing left to prove in College, he's very clearly above that level of play just like Gaudreau was.

[GranteedEV]

Some examples of 1st round forward picks that took a while for the rewards to be reaped:

Vladimir Tarasenko - Drafted 2010 16th OA Rookie Season 2012-13 (38GP)
Riley Sheahan - Drafted 2010 21st OA Rookie Season 2013-14 (42GP) (Statistically, the closest thing you have to Jankowski)
Kevin Hayes - Drafted 2010 24th OA Rookie Season 2014-15
Evgeny Kuznetsov - Drafted 2010 26th OA Rookie Season 2013-14 (17GP)
Vladislav Namestnikov - Drafted 2011 27th OA Rookie Season 2014-15 (43 GP)

Rather thank looking at the success of those individuals, consider the teams that took them. Detroit, St. Louis, Chicago, Tampa Bay. Teams willing to let players develop before throwing them into the mix, or gambling on flight risks with greater upside, who put an emphasis on hockey IQ. Regardless of how or for whom he turns out, the success of those teams tells me Jankowski was the right pick with a long term vision in mind.

[nik-]

If Jankowski wants to be top 6 on this team, he better gain 20 more pounds and be playing Right Wing. I just don't see it happening. Honestly, if Jankowski wasn't a first rounder, there'd hardly be any discussion about him. From both fans and detractors.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by nik-

if Jankowski wasn't a first rounder, there'd hardly be any discussion about him. From both fans and detractors.

There would be 100x less obsessive hate. Guys like myself, Caged Great, getbak etc etc would still be talking about him just as much.

[Red Menace]

Jankowski and Hayes had comparable Freshman and Sophomore years, but their Junior seasons were not very close...Hayes was .93 ppg, vs Jankowski's .73
And when Hayes developed that extra amount in his senior year he realized he could pick his own spot in the NHL and did just that.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by nik-

If Jankowski wants to be top 6 on this team, he better gain 20 more pounds and be playing Right Wing. I just don't see it happening. Honestly, if Jankowski wasn't a first rounder, there'd hardly be any discussion about him. From both fans and detractors.

And if we hadn't traded down and passed on a number of perceieved better players and picked someone that was considered off the board.

EDIT: Let's not get into an arguement over if there is a board or not.