Russia invades Ukraine

[Harry Lime]

Their pledge to continue to escort grain ships was the first thing that a Turkish bureaucrat had done in 125 years that made me start to reconsider what I think of their government officials. Oh, well.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by Agamemnon

It would probably allow Putin to declare victory within Russia, and allow him to maintain power, whereas a convincing loss (with no Ukrainian territory) would leave his regime in a much more precarious state.

So its not just about the land, its about the narrative of 'who won', which is pretty important.

The old “doesn’t matter if they have WMD’s let’s get Saddam!”

[Fuzz]

Turkey chickens out. Lame.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Russia announces it will be treating all ships heading to Odessa as hostile weapons smugglers to Ukraine to be blockaded and intercepted. Brave Erdogan has withdrawn from his previous pledge to escort Ukrainian shipping, hopefully at least NATO will be allowed to step in.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/w...military-cargo

https://twitter.com/user/status/1681543049053196289

In the absence of Turkish protection, Ukrainians have announced they will now respond in kind and consider any civilian flagged ships travelling to Russian ports hostile.

Russian and third party shippers in the Black Sea will now be impossible to insure, not that anyone in the West would because of sanctions anyways. Breaking the grain deal has backfired on the Russians. Their shipping of grain and oil out of the area will be crippled.

Food prices will be rise even higher now.

[activeStick]

I read that the US had promised Turkiye, F-16s but recently backed out? I wonder if this is a bit of tit for tat from Erdogan?

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by activeStick

I read that the US had promised Turkiye, F-16s but recently backed out? I wonder if this is a bit of tit for tat from Erdogan?

Maybe, but I don't think so. Turkey will be a hugely affected country if there is no grain deal, not only do they get a lot of grain themselves, but so do their neighbours and they already have a huge refugee and migrant situation in their country with a teetering economy. While their initial declaration that they would protect Ukrainian ships seemed nice, it was in their best interests to do it. It wasn't an altruistic offer.

The decision to back down is probably out of a fear of being dragged into the war if Russia attacks a Turkish vessel, which of course, could invoke an Article 5 situation. As easy as it is to criticize Turkey for backing down, they have more risk and skin in the game than Canada. I do think that Putin is bluffing, it's hard to know for sure and the potential outcome if Putin isn't bluffing could be catastrophic.

It would be great if a 3rd party country, like say China, offered to escort the ships for the sake of staving off food scarcity. Turkey could agree to let them into the Black Sea, and Russia wouldn't dare attack a Chinese vessel. Even a smaller power, like South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Israel, or Brazil could probably do it and not have to worry as much as a NATO power.

[FlameOn]

Russian propagandists reveal their reason for ending the grain deal is "to cause a global famine that will make Russia friends". Pretty disgusting.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1682074671032811532

[Fuzz]

That's some deep level chess move thinkin'.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Russian propagandists reveal their reason for ending the grain deal is "to cause a global famine that will make Russia friends". Pretty disgusting.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1682074671032811532

Times like these is where I would use the r-word to describe someone. And it's not "Russian".

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

That's some deep level chess move thinkin'.

The only way that actually works is if Russia stops exporting grain themselves though but they need the cash to fund the war. They semi-nationalized all the ports and kicked out international majors earlier in the year and are exerting various levels of control on pricing out of Russia.

Global stocks are set to rebound on pretty much every grain and it becomes a game of freight spreads. So a wide spread famine isn't likely.

The real game being played is the manipulation of ag futures. Russia and select cronies are killing it on wheat futures. It has been a cycle since futures came off their highs. Futures sink and then Russia makes some noise on the grain corridor. That game finally got exhausted and the market was less reactive as the Russians always came back to the table. They nixed it during a natural lull in exports as the crop season comes to close and harvest gets underway. Now they are releasing tidbits to support higher grain prices like the famine piece above. Next step will be to really escalate the conflict against grain infrastructure to get another pop or let things settle out and then hint at some kind of deal with Turkey and collect the downside as futures fall.

I can't see either side actually sinking a merchant vessel unless it is 100% owned by Ukrainians/Russians and there is no cargo onboard. If a Chinese or NATO aligned vessel/cargo gets torched then #### will hit the fan in a way that neither side wants.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Russian propagandists reveal their reason for ending the grain deal is "to cause a global famine that will make Russia friends". Pretty disgusting.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1682074671032811532

The stench of desperation keeps getting stronger.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Russian propagandists reveal their reason for ending the grain deal is "to cause a global famine that will make Russia friends". Pretty disgusting.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1682074671032811532

The stench of desperation coming from Russia keeps getting stronger.

[Coach]

Canada can and could have played a large role in doing our part by counter-acting Russia's economic war games.

Russian gas and oil holding you for ransom? Canada will deliver at Russia prices. (if we actually had the infrastructure to do this doiiiii)

Grain exports from Russia and Ukraine stopping causing global famine? Here comes Canada's bread basket.

We don't have the army tech to help and our NATO contribution needs a bump. We should be helping in this way IMO.

[The Fonz]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1682382836907618305

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Coach

Canada can and could have played a large role in doing our part by counter-acting Russia's economic war games.

Russian gas and oil holding you for ransom? Canada will deliver at Russia prices. (if we actually had the infrastructure to do this doiiiii)

Grain exports from Russia and Ukraine stopping causing global famine? Here comes Canada's bread basket.

We don't have the army tech to help and our NATO contribution needs a bump. We should be helping in this way IMO.

Yes but if we export petro products, global warming.

If anyone else exports petro products, it doesn't affect emissions, climate or environment at all.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Coach

Canada can and could have played a large role in doing our part by counter-acting Russia's economic war games.

Russian gas and oil holding you for ransom? Canada will deliver at Russia prices. (if we actually had the infrastructure to do this doiiiii)

Grain exports from Russia and Ukraine stopping causing global famine? Here comes Canada's bread basket.

We don't have the army tech to help and our NATO contribution needs a bump. We should be helping in this way IMO.

Is the Canadian government going to eat the spread? Black sea wheat is trading in the high 290s/mt into importers. Canadian wheat is about 340/MT loaded out of Vancouver. Russia shuts down grain exports then Canadian grain will get more expensive.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Yes but if we export petro products, global warming.

If anyone else exports petro products, it doesn't affect emissions, climate or environment at all.

That's racist.

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by Coach

Canada can and could have played a large role in doing our part by counter-acting Russia's economic war games.

Russian gas and oil holding you for ransom? Canada will deliver at Russia prices. (if we actually had the infrastructure to do this doiiiii)

Grain exports from Russia and Ukraine stopping causing global famine? Here comes Canada's bread basket.

We don't have the army tech to help and our NATO contribution needs a bump. We should be helping in this way IMO.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding something (entirely possible), but don't we already export oil and grain?

[Coach]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Is the Canadian government going to eat the spread? Black sea wheat is trading in the high 290s/mt into importers. Canadian wheat is about 340/MT loaded out of Vancouver. Russia shuts down grain exports then Canadian grain will get more expensive.

For now, probably. The point would be to contribute to a war effort, not Nessa tilt to be profiting from it.

Maybe in the aftermath there are payback considerations from allies or something who knows. Ammunition is probably at a premium too but the US government doesn’t seemed concerned about that.

[Huntingwhale]

A prominent Russian pro-war blogger who has criticized President Vladimir Putin and his military’s mishaps in Ukraine was arrested on Friday,

Girkin is a former colonel in Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) and served as defense minister in the separatist so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) in eastern Ukraine, territory captured by pro-Russian forces in 2014.

It was during his time in the DPR that he contributed to the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine in 2014, a court in the Netherlands found. All 298 people onboard were killed. The court last year found Girkin guilty of mass murder for his role in the incident and he was sentenced in absentia to life in prison.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/21/e...ntl/index.html

War criminal Girkin arrested. Couldn't have happened to a more disgusting deserving POS.