Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

No one can silence me. I have rights.

Depends what colour your underwear is. Blue or orange?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

https://338canada.com/alberta/districts.htm

50-37 UCP. More troubling is Likely or better (outside the margin of error 10%+ lead) 40-25 UCP. Unless there are outliers somewhere in those 40, UCP only need 4 more seats out of 22. NDP would need to almost run the table, 19 out of 22.

Your comment makes the same blue firewall mistake that Princeton did in the Trump / Hilary election.

The seats are highly correlated. So it isn’t the odds of each of the 19 seats going orange it’s the odds of the 19th seat going orange because all of the other seats go orange once you get the 19th.

I think the odds they have of forming a majority are pretty reasonable given what we have seen with the polls

75% UCP to 25% NDP. Flip a coin twice and get two heads the NDP wins. Anyone trying to state anything with more certainty than that is not accounting for margin of error

[edslunch]

I hear a lot of previous conservative voters saying they won't vote for the UCP, including prominent former-PCs. This is great from my perspective, but likely only moves the race from typical landslide win to close win for the UCP. Making up anywhere close to the required 20 extra seats over 2019 would be a huge accomplishment for the NDP. I'm resigned to the Konvoyfolk winning.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by GGG

Your comment makes the same blue firewall mistake that Princeton did in the Trump / Hilary election.

The seats are highly correlated. So it isn’t the odds of each of the 19 seats going orange it’s the odds of the 19th seat going orange because all of the other seats go orange once you get the 19th.

I think the odds they have of forming a majority are pretty reasonable given what we have seen with the polls

75% UCP to 25% NDP. Flip a coin twice and get two heads the NDP wins. Anyone trying to state anything with more certainty than that is not accounting for margin of error

Sure, it's not 22 individual coin flips but it's also not as corralated as you think. In the 'toss up' category, what do Morinville-St. Albert, Lethbridge-East, Banff-Kananaskis and the East or West Calgary ridings have in common?

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Kamloops is full of methods heads and Kelowna is not cheaper. My brother lives in Kelowna...The job markets in those locals also lacks too. Most people won't leave the province regardless of the result. Chances are Oil is heading down and the Energy Sector will lose jobs regardless of who wins.

Well there are plenty of meth heads in Calgary too. And I said Kelowna is equivalent, but to be honest I’ve only really been looking on the island. In the 2M to 2.5M range I’ve been pleasantly surprised at what is available.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Sure, it's not 22 individual coin flips but it's also not as corralated as you think. In the 'toss up' category, what do Morinville-St. Albert, Lethbridge-East, Banff-Kananaskis and the East or West Calgary ridings have in common?

They're all majority populated by lifelong conservative voters and exist in a world where the UCP nominated a crazy person as leader.

[WinnipegFan]

Originally Posted by malcolmk14

Teacher here with a specialized Masters degree and a decade of experience. My wife and I have now had some serious conversations about leaving the province.

Malcolm we were in the same place. Made the call and it’s amazing. If you are interested send me a PM.

[kevman]

Originally Posted by FireGilbert

Why do you guys still vote on a Monday? It's not 1923 where you need to line up the election with farmers coming to market. Get it done on a Saturday.

Because walking to the polling station across the street is easier than finding and advanced polling station somewhere else? I don't know, I kind of like the vibe on election day. Feeling like you're part of something is half the fun.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Sure, it's not 22 individual coin flips but it's also not as corralated as you think. In the 'toss up' category, what do Morinville-St. Albert, Lethbridge-East, Banff-Kananaskis and the East or West Calgary ridings have in common?

That support for the NDP in general is correlated and the likelihood of any marginal voter anywhere likely has roughly the same threshold to make them change their vote.

[chedder]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

Well there are plenty of meth heads in Calgary too. And I said Kelowna is equivalent, but to be honest I’ve only really been looking on the island. In the 2M to 2.5M range I’ve been pleasantly surprised at what is available.

Well, no s#it. In the 2 to 2.5m range you can live anywhere in North America you want. Nice humble brag by the way.

[Faust]

Ezra Levant: Any Albertan who cares about freedom must vote for Danielle Smith

Note: I’m not linking back to the Rebel News website

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

Well there are plenty of meth heads in Calgary too. And I said Kelowna is equivalent, but to be honest I’ve only really been looking on the island. In the 2M to 2.5M range I’ve been pleasantly surprised at what is available.

I'm also pleasantly surprised at what $2mil+ buys you, lol. Jesus.

[Wormius]

Ezra is a grade A dick and should f-off forever.

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by kevman

Because walking to the polling station across the street is easier than finding and advanced polling station somewhere else? I don't know, I kind of like the vibe on election day. Feeling like you're part of something is half the fun.

Come on though, the advanced polling stations are listed on the voter registration you get in the mail. The same piece of mail you use to find out where the polling station is on voting day. There is a website too, if you are comfortable using the internet,

That said, waiting in line on voting day isn’t exactly a lengthy process. Like 10 minutes instead of 5 at an advanced poll.

[Eric Vail]

Originally Posted by WinnipegFan

Malcolm we were in the same place. Made the call and it’s amazing. If you are interested send me a PM.

I too am a long time teacher looking to leave if Danielle gets in. I am not sure I want my kids to have to live here or my grandkids.

PM sent.

[btimbit]

Wife and I both work in different emergency services and have tossed the idea around too. Problem is, where is it any better?

[Yoho]

I could see a reverse effect as well if Smith gets in of attracting other conservative like minded around country. The “Florida” of Canada (minus the weather)

https://twitter.com/user/status/1663160770853732352

[Ozy_Flame]

Ah yes, the appeal of the Fahrenheit 451 movement. The youth love that.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Faust

Ezra Levant: Any Albertan who cares about freedom must vote for Danielle Smith

Note: I’m not linking back to the Rebel News website

Unless ofcourse it is freedom from religious or corporate oppression.

[eddly]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

Well there are plenty of meth heads in Calgary too. And I said Kelowna is equivalent, but to be honest I’ve only really been looking on the island. In the 2M to 2.5M range I’ve been pleasantly surprised at what is available.

2M to 2.5M? That’s cute, I would be looking in the 10M to 15M range.

By ”M” I mean minutes though, need to find something close to public transit.