Russia invades Ukraine

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

One sobering lesson from this conflict is that the West does not dominate the globe the way it did 30 years ago. Most of the world is not onboard with the sanctions against Russia, and for all the levers at our disposal, the West no longer has the means to bring everyone else into line.

That's true, but at the same time, I don't think there's a lot of indication that the US and its allies even want stronger effects from sanctions because of how it'd negatively affect their own economies.

For instance, sanctions against Russian energy aren't designed to prevent their exports; that would just reduce world supply and drive up everyone's energy prices. They're designed to reduce the amount of revenue going into Russia as much as possible without disrupting the flow too much, and on the whole they've been pretty successful at that.

Sure, everyone talks a big game to make it look like the West is doing everything it can, but ultimately they're happy to buy re-packaged Russian oil as long as they know Russia isn't getting market rates for it.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Sure, everyone talks a big game to make it look like the West is doing everything it can, but ultimately they're happy to buy re-packaged Russian oil as long as they know Russia isn't getting market rates for it.

Well yes. European support for sustaining the conflict would melt away pretty quickly if people couldn’t afford to heat their homes. Even Ukraine itself is still using Russian oil.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

So India is bad global south? Isn't the lack of US outreach to the global south your big issue.

Global South countries do both good and bad things all the time, just like anywhere else. I think India's an amazing country and there's a lot I love about the place. I want to see India develop and Indian people flourish, but that doesn't mean I support everything India does simply because they're part of the Global South.

I'm just saying the US's warm efforts with India and looking the other way on their close relationship with Russia and their human rights abuses is indicative of America's real priorities, and contradict the narratives they're generally pushing elsewhere.

[PeteMoss]

Does anyone think the US is a bastion of morality? They are being pals with India because India is enemies with China and likely the next big economy in the world.

India is being pals with the US because they want some of those sweet US weapons and sweet US money. The US also doesn't care that India is buying Russian oil for cheap and then re-selling it. That's the whole point of the price controls they put on Russian oil. Keep the economy going while limiting Russian gains from their oil.

Very few people believe either side are being buds out of the goodness of their own hearts and I assume most of them believe in Santa Claus or wear US flag zumba pants on a regular basis.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Does anyone think the US is a bastion of morality? They are being pals with India because India is enemies with China and likely the next big economy in the world.

India is being pals with the US because they want some of those sweet US weapons and sweet US money. The US also doesn't care that India is buying Russian oil for cheap and then re-selling it. That's the whole point of the price controls they put on Russian oil. Keep the economy going while limiting Russian gains from their oil.

Very few people believe either side are being buds out of the goodness of their own hearts and I assume most of them believe in Santa Claus or wear US flag zumba pants on a regular basis.

Quote

"Winston Churchill once famously observed that Americans will always do the right thing, only after they have tried everything else."

[FlamesAddiction]

Apparently Russia has said that they may not renew the grain deal in July 17th, but Turkey and Ukraine have said they are going to go ahead with it like business as usual even without Russian approval. Turkish ships will continue to protect the Ukrainian shipments in the Black Sea.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Apparently Russia has said that they may not renew the grain deal in July 17th, but Turkey and Ukraine have said they are going to go ahead with it like business as usual even without Russian approval. Turkish ships will continue to protect the Ukrainian shipments in the Black Sea.

Just let whole NATO fleet in to protect Ukrainian grain ships.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Does anyone think the US is a bastion of morality? They are being pals with India because India is enemies with China and likely the next big economy in the world.

India is being pals with the US because they want some of those sweet US weapons and sweet US money. The US also doesn't care that India is buying Russian oil for cheap and then re-selling it. That's the whole point of the price controls they put on Russian oil. Keep the economy going while limiting Russian gains from their oil.

Very few people believe either side are being buds out of the goodness of their own hearts and I assume most of them believe in Santa Claus or wear US flag zumba pants on a regular basis.

There is no shortage of people who fully believe the US is driven by the moral good of championing democracy and human rights worldwide. Some wear zumba pants, some wear suits and ties, but there's no shortage of them and those ideas are pumped via American media, education, and political rhetoric all the time.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Apparently Russia has said that they may not renew the grain deal in July 17th, but Turkey and Ukraine have said they are going to go ahead with it like business as usual even without Russian approval. Turkish ships will continue to protect the Ukrainian shipments in the Black Sea.

Russia now saying the deal will be extended. Imagine that, standing up to Putin and dictating the terms to him and he backs down. Imagine that. Some Western leaders could learn about whom they are dealing with and what he reacts to.

[jammies]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

There is no shortage of people who fully believe the US is driven by the moral good of championing democracy and human rights worldwide.

Yes, and those people are fools. The Americans are deeply flawed. They are also far from the worst regime that could dominate the world, as at least they leaven their cynical hypocrisy with ham-fisted incompetence.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

Russia now saying the deal will be extended. Imagine that, standing up to Putin and dictating the terms to him and he backs down. Imagine that. Some Western leaders could learn about whom they are dealing with and what he reacts to.

It's almost like he's actually a punk ass bitch

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Did you miss the part about enormous increases in trade with China, and through third-party countries like Serbia and Singapore?



It’s funny calling the Economist a mouthpiece for Russian propaganda. They’ve been staunchly pro-Ukraine from the get-go. But they’re also an empirically-driven organization that doesn’t let wishful thinking shape their reporting.



One sobering lesson from this conflict is that the West does not dominate the globe the way it did 30 years ago. Most of the world is not onboard with the sanctions against Russia, and for all the levers at our disposal, the West no longer has the means to bring everyone else into line.

The giant increases in trade with China don't necessarily say what you think it may. Losing 30 trading partners and gaining two (exaggerating for effect here) may not make up the difference. Especially when China and India are using the opportunity to put the screws to Russia via trade. Even sanctions avoidance via third party countries denies Russia most of the tax revenue they would've otherwise got. And as mentioned, IMF numbers are simply numbers given by Russia. They're not particularly reliable

[Itse]

Germany pledges new arms packages for Ukraine and support up to 2027.

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/07/...ith-australia/

These long term commitments are extremely important signals.

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by jammies

Yes, and those people are fools. The Americans are deeply flawed. They are also far from the worst regime that could dominate the world, as at least they leaven their cynical hypocrisy with ham-fisted incompetence.

So edgy...when the wikileaks cables came out it was quite shocking how much the American diplomats actually did care about democratic beliefs. That's how they acted when no one was looking, and that's actually who they are.

JohnnyB sounds a lot like pointman did in March 2022. Now China is no Russia, but any autocracy is a heartbeat or economic crisis away from collapse. That's when the other passport comes out and they're relocating.

[karl262]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

Russia now saying the deal will be extended. Imagine that, standing up to Putin and dictating the terms to him and he backs down. Imagine that. Some Western leaders could learn about whom they are dealing with and what he reacts to.

It seems Putin keeps going back and forth on this as now there is no commitment to renew. Russia would like their agricultural banks reconnected to SWIFT, an admission the sanctions are working. They're playing the victim here in comparing sanctions to blockade.

Let the deal expire and protect the ships.

Probably a complete pipe dream but I'd love to see a Canadian frigate or two helping safeguard the grain corridor.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by Rutuu

So edgy...when the wikileaks cables came out it was quite shocking how much the American diplomats actually did care about democratic beliefs. That's how they acted when no one was looking, and that's actually who they are.

JohnnyB sounds a lot like pointman did in March 2022. Now China is no Russia, but any autocracy is a heartbeat or economic crisis away from collapse. That's when the other passport comes out and they're relocating.

TLDR at the end.

Given the average age on CP, I'm pretty sure none of us are in high school and I'd guess nobody really cares about being "edgy". Anyways, even if it is edgy to call people fools, it's hardly edgy to recognize that the US has a dubious history of overthrowing democracies, waging wars, and committing human rights abuses simply in order to serve their own strategic interests.

That doesn't mean Americans generally or in their foreign affairs or military are bad people, or that they don't believe in democracy, but that's how it goes when you're dealing with a systemic problem. They're also not the ones setting broad policy directions. Diplomats are a bit like the doctors engaged in the distribution of Oxycontin who genuinely believed in good care for patients and helping them live healthier lives, just as people in the press are bit like the people who engaged in convening marketing activities for the stuff.

At the strategic level, the US focuses on their own interests through the lens of US supremacy.

We're at a point in this war where it's looking like there's a good chance of Ukraine not being able to gain back the lost territories. It's unquestionable that Ukrainians are the victims and Russia should not have invaded, but it's also worth remembering that back in March 2022 there was an opportunity for a peace deal that the US apparently shut down - shut down because they apparently felt it was important to make a point to China about Taiwan.

A year and a half on, sure, that point has been made. The US has also gained much greater influence over Europe and they've put a serious drain on Russia. It's the best money they've ever spent, as Lindsey Graham put it. It has also come at the price tag of millions of Ukrainian refugees, huge numbers of Ukrainian and Russian deaths, and an Eastern Ukraine that has been blown to bits and thoroughly mined such that people will keep getting blown to bits for a couple of generations. What is left of Ukraine will also likely come under much greater American ownership as rebuilding and economic recovery is financed by American firms.

So, what of that point made to China about Taiwan? The US strategic interests aren't about the people of Taiwan or their democratic system either. Their interests are in relation to the importance of Taiwan's location in the region and in the importance of TSMC. The importance of Taiwan is in relation to US goals for constraining China's growth and opposing their rise as as global competitor. It's a key compliment to other strategies of constraining and restricting Chinese economic and technological development.

Put in perspective, the US shot down a deal that could have precluded an enormous amount of suffering in Ukraine in part because the US (a country with a per capita GDP of $70,000) is very concerned with restricting the economic development of a country with 1.4 billion people and a per capita GDP of $13,000. How ####ed up is that?

The US is just writing cheques feeding into their own arms industry while the human and economic costs of war are borne by Europe and Ukraine, and they seem happy to do it because it serves to increase their influence over key allies, weaken an adversary, and support a strategy to keep 1.4 billion people far lower than them on the economic ladder from having the chance to climb up, all of which helps to secure their supremacy.

The Ukrainians are very much the victims in this, and there's no inconsistency in recognizing that and wanting them to have safety, security, and wellbeing while also recognizing that as America funds their defense they are also being used by the US to serve larger American strategic interests.

There's also nothing inconsistent in wanting the Ukrainians to get support from the US and to be able to defend themselves and their home while simultaneously recognizing the extreme cynicism and inhumanity of an American strategy to constrain the advancement of 18% of the world's population so that a rich country with 4% of the world's population and a political system dominated by the richest among them can maintain their global supremacy.

Personally, I like a lot about America as a brand, but when you see human suffering being used as a tool to enable further human suffering, all to serve control and security for the few, well it's pretty gross. I still might not call people who believe the brand messaging "fools", but at least well-meaning and hopeful people who are being misled.

TLDR: Just putting on my eyeliner and my anarchy shirt, and getting edgy.

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

TLDR at the end.

Given the average age on CP, I'm pretty sure none of us are in high school and I'd guess nobody really cares about being "edgy". Anyways, even if it is edgy to call people fools, it's hardly edgy to recognize that the US has a dubious history of overthrowing democracies, waging wars, and committing human rights abuses simply in order to serve their own strategic interests.

That doesn't mean Americans generally or in their foreign affairs or military are bad people, or that they don't believe in democracy, but that's how it goes when you're dealing with a systemic problem. They're also not the ones setting broad policy directions. Diplomats are a bit like the doctors engaged in the distribution of Oxycontin who genuinely believed in good care for patients and helping them live healthier lives, just as people in the press are bit like the people who engaged in convening marketing activities for the stuff.

At the strategic level, the US focuses on their own interests through the lens of US supremacy.

We're at a point in this war where it's looking like there's a good chance of Ukraine not being able to gain back the lost territories. It's unquestionable that Ukrainians are the victims and Russia should not have invaded, but it's also worth remembering that back in March 2022 there was an opportunity for a peace deal that the US apparently shut down - shut down because they apparently felt it was important to make a point to China about Taiwan.

A year and a half on, sure, that point has been made. The US has also gained much greater influence over Europe and they've put a serious drain on Russia. It's the best money they've ever spent, as Lindsey Graham put it. It has also come at the price tag of millions of Ukrainian refugees, huge numbers of Ukrainian and Russian deaths, and an Eastern Ukraine that has been blown to bits and thoroughly mined such that people will keep getting blown to bits for a couple of generations. What is left of Ukraine will also likely come under much greater American ownership as rebuilding and economic recovery is financed by American firms.

So, what of that point made to China about Taiwan? The US strategic interests aren't about the people of Taiwan or their democratic system either. Their interests are in relation to the importance of Taiwan's location in the region and in the importance of TSMC. The importance of Taiwan is in relation to US goals for constraining China's growth and opposing their rise as as global competitor. It's a key compliment to other strategies of constraining and restricting Chinese economic and technological development.

Put in perspective, the US shot down a deal that could have precluded an enormous amount of suffering in Ukraine in part because the US (a country with a per capita GDP of $70,000) is very concerned with restricting the economic development of a country with 1.4 billion people and a per capita GDP of $13,000. How ####ed up is that?

The US is just writing cheques feeding into their own arms industry while the human and economic costs of war are borne by Europe and Ukraine, and they seem happy to do it because it serves to increase their influence over key allies, weaken an adversary, and support a strategy to keep 1.4 billion people far lower than them on the economic ladder from having the chance to climb up, all of which helps to secure their supremacy.

The Ukrainians are very much the victims in this, and there's no inconsistency in recognizing that and wanting them to have safety, security, and wellbeing while also recognizing that as America funds their defense they are also being used by the US to serve larger American strategic interests.

There's also nothing inconsistent in wanting the Ukrainians to get support from the US and to be able to defend themselves and their home while simultaneously recognizing the extreme cynicism and inhumanity of an American strategy to constrain the advancement of 18% of the world's population so that a rich country with 4% of the world's population and a political system dominated by the richest among them can maintain their global supremacy.

Personally, I like a lot about America as a brand, but when you see human suffering being used as a tool to enable further human suffering, all to serve control and security for the few, well it's pretty gross. I still might not call people who believe the brand messaging "fools", but at least well-meaning and hopeful people who are being misled.

TLDR: Just putting on my eyeliner and my anarchy shirt, and getting edgy.

TLDR.

I'll just enjoy the irony of your persecution free wall of text.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by Rutuu

TLDR.

I'll just enjoy the irony of your persecution free wall of text.

And what are you doing with your free speech? Defending all that bs? You're a true humanitarian.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

TLDR at the end.



Given the average age on CP, I'm pretty sure none of us are in high school and I'd guess nobody really cares about being "edgy". Anyways, even if it is edgy to call people fools, it's hardly edgy to recognize that the US has a dubious history of overthrowing democracies, waging wars, and committing human rights abuses simply in order to serve their own strategic interests.



That doesn't mean Americans generally or in their foreign affairs or military are bad people, or that they don't believe in democracy, but that's how it goes when you're dealing with a systemic problem. They're also not the ones setting broad policy directions. Diplomats are a bit like the doctors engaged in the distribution of Oxycontin who genuinely believed in good care for patients and helping them live healthier lives, just as people in the press are bit like the people who engaged in convening marketing activities for the stuff.



At the strategic level, the US focuses on their own interests through the lens of US supremacy.



We're at a point in this war where it's looking like there's a good chance of Ukraine not being able to gain back the lost territories. It's unquestionable that Ukrainians are the victims and Russia should not have invaded, but it's also worth remembering that back in March 2022 there was an opportunity for a peace deal that the US apparently shut down - shut down because they apparently felt it was important to make a point to China about Taiwan.



A year and a half on, sure, that point has been made. The US has also gained much greater influence over Europe and they've put a serious drain on Russia. It's the best money they've ever spent, as Lindsey Graham put it. It has also come at the price tag of millions of Ukrainian refugees, huge numbers of Ukrainian and Russian deaths, and an Eastern Ukraine that has been blown to bits and thoroughly mined such that people will keep getting blown to bits for a couple of generations. What is left of Ukraine will also likely come under much greater American ownership as rebuilding and economic recovery is financed by American firms.



So, what of that point made to China about Taiwan? The US strategic interests aren't about the people of Taiwan or their democratic system either. Their interests are in relation to the importance of Taiwan's location in the region and in the importance of TSMC. The importance of Taiwan is in relation to US goals for constraining China's growth and opposing their rise as as global competitor. It's a key compliment to other strategies of constraining and restricting Chinese economic and technological development.



Put in perspective, the US shot down a deal that could have precluded an enormous amount of suffering in Ukraine in part because the US (a country with a per capita GDP of $70,000) is very concerned with restricting the economic development of a country with 1.4 billion people and a per capita GDP of $13,000. How ####ed up is that?



The US is just writing cheques feeding into their own arms industry while the human and economic costs of war are borne by Europe and Ukraine, and they seem happy to do it because it serves to increase their influence over key allies, weaken an adversary, and support a strategy to keep 1.4 billion people far lower than them on the economic ladder from having the chance to climb up, all of which helps to secure their supremacy.



The Ukrainians are very much the victims in this, and there's no inconsistency in recognizing that and wanting them to have safety, security, and wellbeing while also recognizing that as America funds their defense they are also being used by the US to serve larger American strategic interests.



There's also nothing inconsistent in wanting the Ukrainians to get support from the US and to be able to defend themselves and their home while simultaneously recognizing the extreme cynicism and inhumanity of an American strategy to constrain the advancement of 18% of the world's population so that a rich country with 4% of the world's population and a political system dominated by the richest among them can maintain their global supremacy.



Personally, I like a lot about America as a brand, but when you see human suffering being used as a tool to enable further human suffering, all to serve control and security for the few, well it's pretty gross. I still might not call people who believe the brand messaging "fools", but at least well-meaning and hopeful people who are being misled.



TLDR: Just putting on my eyeliner and my anarchy shirt, and getting edgy.

So you're basing your opinion on the US' relationship with Ukraine solely on some vague idea that they nixed a deal we haven't heard about and then attached a motive that isn't clear. Their reasoning for stopping a deal the Ukrainians said openly they'd never sign was only done to show China they mean business???



I think you need to read up on the situation more. And does support for the sovereignty of Ukraine and their protection of it's citizens not seem like an obvious motive over the Taiwan situation? Do you really think that if Taiwan didn't exist we wouldn't be watching the same situation? That seems daft

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

So you're basing your opinion on the US' relationship with Ukraine solely on some vague idea that they nixed a deal we haven't heard about and then attached a motive that isn't clear. Their reasoning for stopping a deal the Ukrainians said openly they'd never sign was only done to show China they mean business???



I think you need to read up on the situation more. And does support for the sovereignty of Ukraine and their protection of it's citizens not seem like an obvious motive over the Taiwan situation? Do you really think that if Taiwan didn't exist we wouldn't be watching the same situation? That seems daft

Naftali Bennett, who was the person leading those negotiations, has basically said so himself. Jeffery Sachs, who I consider to be a trustworthy person based on his career history, his dedication to humanitarian interests, the risk posed to his career and likely costs at advocating this position, and his direct exposure to senior people and heads of state in the related countries, has said that he has been told off the record from all sides that it went down that way. And, it aligns with the national interests, the historical record of behavior by the US, and their recent activities under this administration in other areas.

Sure, it could be wrong, but when you've got the guy who was there saying it, backed up by a trustworthy source saying it has been confirmed by every side involved, and it aligns with the historical pattern, the current motives, and other current activities, that's a pretty good case on a balance of probabilities, which is likely all that we will ever have.