Who is winning the election?

[flames_1987]

Originally posted by DeanOMac@Nov 3 2004, 05:38 AM
Are the sources such as CBS, NBC, CNN, Yahoo etc. all using leaning because they are too chicken to just say it?

Being a very amatuer statistician, I know that when you sample a certain amount, that trend will usually stay the same. When voting, youd have to factor in that some states have very democratic areas and others republican areas, but overall if you take about 30 votes from each polling station, you can get a very strong estimate for who will win.

Im wondering if its just cause CNN blew it big last election that no one will step up and say for sure.

I thought Fox was the one that "blew" it with Georges Cousin saying whatever and then all the networks copied.

[calf]

Originally posted by DeanOMac@Nov 2 2004, 11:38 PM
Are the sources such as CBS, NBC, CNN, Yahoo etc. all using leaning because they are too chicken to just say it?

Being a very amatuer statistician, I know that when you sample a certain amount, that trend will usually stay the same. When voting, youd have to factor in that some states have very democratic areas and others republican areas, but overall if you take about 30 votes from each polling station, you can get a very strong estimate for who will win.

Im wondering if its just cause CNN blew it big last election that no one will step up and say for sure.

Yes. CNN even admitted that they don't want to project something they aren't sure about, using 2000 as an example, because different areas of a certain state can vote differently and sway the vote.

[RedHot25]

Interesting to see the difference between the predictions, even just 2 spots on the web.

Yahoo.com - Bush 246, Kerry 207.

Cnn.com - Bush 246, Kerry 196.

Now 11 is not huge...but still...maybe one side being more cautious or more assertive/taking a risk i guess...

[kermitology]

137,468 is the difference in Ohio.. That state will win it for either candidate..

[RedHot25]

Originally posted by kermitology@Nov 3 2004, 05:44 AM
137,468 is the difference in Ohio.. That state will win it for either candidate..

Yup.

Kerry now at 217 according to yahoo...now down to 216....

[browna]

Originally posted by kermitology@Nov 2 2004, 11:44 PM
137,468 is the difference in Ohio.. That state will win it for either candidate..

And I heard on NBC that if the margin gets near/around 200,000 fo Bush, Ohio can be called....that, or, of course, if 85% of the polls reporting and the margin remains the same.

[lucid]

Originally posted by kermitology@Nov 2 2004, 11:44 PM
137,468 is the difference in Ohio.. That state will win it for either candidate..

With just over 80% of precincts reporting, I don't think Kerry can win Ohio. :unsure:

[flames_1987]

Originally posted by browna+Nov 3 2004, 05:46 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (browna @ Nov 3 2004, 05:46 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-kermitology@Nov 2 2004, 11:44 PM
137,468 is the difference in Ohio.. That state will win it for either candidate..

And I heard on NBC that if the margin gets near/around 200,000 fo Bush, Ohio can be called....that, or, of course, if 85% of the polls reporting and the margin remains the same. [/b][/quote]
83% on Yahoo

Speachless....

[RedHot25]

Originally posted by lucid+Nov 3 2004, 05:47 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (lucid @ Nov 3 2004, 05:47 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-kermitology@Nov 2 2004, 11:44 PM
137,468 is the difference in Ohio.. That state will win it for either candidate..

With just over 80% of precincts reporting, I don't think Kerry can win Ohio. :unsure: [/b][/quote]
;_;

[kermitology]

Bush is increasing his lead in Ohio.. 140,343 as per my last calc.. Slowly this is fading into oblivion. Kerry's lead in NV is slipping too..

[browna]

Yeah, its getting close to a call on Ohio, and this the presidency.

I think some of the media outlets DON'T want to be the first to make the call, after 2000.

Who makes the first call? Fox, IMO.

[RedHot25]

Originally posted by browna@Nov 3 2004, 05:51 AM


Who makes the first call? Fox, IMO.

I agreee with that.

[flames_1987]

Originally posted by browna@Nov 3 2004, 05:51 AM
Yeah, its getting close to a call on Ohio, and this the presidency.

I think some of the media outlets DON'T want to be the first to make the call, after 2000.

Who makes the first call? Fox, IMO.

George will call up the cousin and tell him to pass it on.

I wonder if his walk to the whitehouse will go the same as it did last time? LETS HOPE SO

[kermitology]

Fox will call it, but it'll wait until say New Mexico is called as well.. But if Ohio goes you can nail Kerry's coffin.

[RedHot25]

Anyone find it weird that cnn.com has not budge in a long long time off of 195 for Kerry...?

[MrMastodonFarm]

http://media.skoopy.com/vids/vid_00313.wmv

[lucid]

Using Yahoo's numbers:
246 Bush at present + Bush leading in the Ohio, NM, Alaska
+ 20 from Ohio
+ 5 from New Mexico
+ 3 from Alaska
= we have ourselves a winner

;_;

[kermitology]

Some KErry counties must have just come in.. 100,046 lead for Bush

86% reporting

[browna]

Fox has 266 vs 211 right now at 10:58MDT

[kermitology]

Fox gave Ohio to Bush..

They're using older numbers than cbs though..