[GDT] Montreal Canadiens at Calgary Flames 6:30pm TV: SN, RDS - RADIO SN960

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Other than Ras those arent realistic near future moves

Andersson and Coleman.

IMO Coleman could be moved sooner too.

Flames have two retention slots and those are the two guys I think you'd use them on.

Andersson at $2.75M and Coleman at $2.45M should be easy to move at any time.

There is also no benefit to waiting since cap accumulation doesn't provide any benefit anymore due to the way the playoff salary cap works. So if a team is interested they might as well acquire him now for more of the season instead of waiting until the deadline.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Andersson and Coleman.

IMO Coleman could be moved sooner too.

Flames have two retention slots and those are the two guys I think you'd use them on.

Andersson at $2.75M and Coleman at $2.45M should be easy to move at any time.

There is also no benefit to waiting since cap accumulation doesn't provide any benefit anymore due to the way the playoff salary cap works. So if a team is interested they might as well acquire him now for more of the season instead of waiting until the deadline.

Teams will be in more urgent positions at the deadline especially with injury or as their competition loads up. This isnt new...highest prices are at or near the deadline.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by flame4life

Since literally no one expects us to win against Montreal, we likely will win it. One thing for certain, I can never predict the Calgary Flames. Like some others here, Parekh gets his first point is my prediction and the Flames play their most complete game of the season. One can hope ...

Montreal is decent...this is the worst team the Flames have played at home though

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

This is actually where your argument falls apart, because “advanced” stats have measured this, so they can tell you what the actual occurrence of those things happening has been historically, which you can then use to make an educated guess on the chances of them happening now would be (instead of a wild one you just made up).

Farabee’s HDSH% averaged over the last 3 years is 20.7%
Marner’s HDSH% averaged over the last 3 years is 28.9%

Meaning if they both took 20 shots from the slot, you would expect Marner to score between 5-6 goals, and Farabee to score between 4-5 goals.

Draisaitl is the type of scorer you would expect to get 7-8 goals on 20 shots from the slot.

THat is a strange way to group their respective results.

Farabee would be 4.1 goals per 20 shots
Marner would be 5.78 goals per 20 shots

That seems like a noticeable difference to me especially since high danger chances are not just shots from the slot.

Dig just a fraction deeper and Farabee's numbers over three years are buoyed by his HD scoring % in 2023/24 when it was 27%. That was better than Draisaitl, McDavid or Matthews that year. That kind of seems like luck to me.

You can find stats that prove a lot of different points. One of the purposes of this stuff is trying to predict future performance and I don't see Farabee as much of a goal scorer.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

THat is a strange way to group their respective results.

Farabee would be 4.1 goals per 20 shots
Marner would be 5.78 goals per 20 shots

That seems like a noticeable difference to me especially since high danger chances are not just shots from the slot.

Dig just a fraction deeper and Farabee's numbers over three years are buoyed by his HD scoring % in 2023/24 when it was 27%. That was better than Draisaitl, McDavid or Matthews that year. That kind of seems like luck to me.

You can find stats that prove a lot of different points. One of the purposes of this stuff is trying to predict future performance and I don't see Farabee as much of a goal scorer.

Fair. But that is why it is useful to use 3 years - because there will be hot and cold streaks within the data (large sample size).

Rhett44 did Rhett44 things, simply making up numbers to try and validate his argument (suggesting Marner would score 8 times as often as Farabee), and PepriFree correctly shot that down with actual numbers and a real argument.

Your rebuttal was valid, then you add a completely subjective 'I don't think Farabee is much of a goal scorer' comment, which seems odd when discussing the validity of the statistics

[FBI]

Is anyone else sick of advanced stats discussions?

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Teams will be in more urgent positions at the deadline especially with injury or as their competition loads up. This isnt new...highest prices are at or near the deadline.

Except when they are not, which seems to be the case whenever Flames are TDL sellers.

Set a price and move the guys as soon as it is met. Brinksmanship is stupid. Conroy is not extended yet. If he waits and gets nothing or less than what was offered earlier he's probably gone.

[Finger Cookin]

Give us quantum stats!

I wish I kept up more with advanced stats when they were emerging -- all these years later and I still feel like I'm playing catch up. They can bring an interesting angle to forum chit chat, at times.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

THat is a strange way to group their respective results.

Farabee would be 4.1 goals per 20 shots
Marner would be 5.78 goals per 20 shots

That seems like a noticeable difference to me especially since high danger chances are not just shots from the slot.

Dig just a fraction deeper and Farabee's numbers over three years are buoyed by his HD scoring % in 2023/24 when it was 27%. That was better than Draisaitl, McDavid or Matthews that year. That kind of seems like luck to me.

You can find stats that prove a lot of different points. One of the purposes of this stuff is trying to predict future performance and I don't see Farabee as much of a goal scorer.

Sorry, what's a strange way to group their results? You can't score 4.1 or 5.78 goals, so it would be 4-5 goals and 5-6 goals, respectively. More likely 4 than 5, but sometimes 5, and more likely 6 than 5, but sometimes 5, if that makes it less weird.

His HD scoring % is not buoyed by the one year any more than it's sunk for the next. "Dig just a fraction deeper" and you'll see:

2024-25: 13.1%
2023-24: 27.1%
2022-23: 22.7%
2021-22: 25.6%

High danger shots in this case ARE just shots from "the slot." We can do away with all the mystification and argument over "advanced" stats and just call this like it is: this is his shooting percentage from the slot. It's not anything special, it's literally just the amount of goals he's scored against the amount of shots he's taken from the slot. Easy.

But 22, 25, 27 is pretty consistent, and I don't really see how the three-year average of 20.7, which is below all of those numbers thanks to the one bad year, is hard to believe. If I had taken out his best and worst years, it would have been higher.

End of the day though they're just numbers. They're not wrong unless they were recorded incorrectly.

Saying their purpose is to predict future performance seems incredibly silly. They're literally just numbers indicating how many times an event happened, like goals, assist, etc.

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Montreal is decent...this is the worst team the Flames have played at home though

In Habsland somewhere there is a Dino7 who is optimistic about his club, and unlike ours he is actually right! Haha, j/k!

Seriously though, I don't know how anyone can be at ease with this team and it's trajectory. We are the anti Montreal in that we completely lack that decisiveness. Giving up picks for cast-offs, acquiring projects, long term contracts before they are necessary, sniffing around guys like Pinto, Cozens, McTavish and Rossi and not getting anything done. Habs are the Canadian Vegas now. Ruthless and fleecing teams like the Flames.

I sure hope we beat them tonight.

[Reggie Dunlop]

Flames will come out and wipe that jaunty joie de vivre off their smug les glorieux tricolore.

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

Flames will come out and wipe that jaunty joie de vivre off their smug les glorieux tricolore.

oui oui oui!

[jayswin]

Wow, the flames went up even from last year on premium game pricing. We figured we'd get last minute tickets. Non resale, regular tickets are $95 for the top of the press level.

$171 starting in the second tier lol.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by jayswin

Wow, the flames went up even from last year on premium game pricing. We figured we'd get last minute tickets. Non resale, regular tickets are $95 for the top of the press level.

$171 starting in the second tier lol.

It’s Montreal. Go see them play San Jose for $25.

[Burning Beard]

They looked like a team ready to snap out of a slump last game so I bet they beat the French Fries tonight

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

They aren't useless.
They are information that should be factored in along with other information.

I don't know why people are in such a rush to just throw them out v. understanding how to use those stats alongside other information.

Maybe they were told there would be no math?

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

I don't think this managerial/ownership group has the ability/desire to pull the plug on the veteran core of this team if they need to.

I don't know how to break this to you, but they pulled the plug on that veteran core a year and a half ago. What's left are the pieces that are harder to move. The precise veterans you want around to teach the younger players – Backlund, Coleman, Weegar – are the only ones that are easily tradable. Huberdeau is too expensive to move, Kadri has an NMC, Sharangovich and Farabee would be cap dumps and return no useful assets. Andersson is the only guy that they want to move who might have some trade value, but nobody is making that kind of trade right now.

Which takes us to the second problem: this is the time of year when nobody wants to make any trades, because they haven't seen enough actual games to figure out what they need to improve. Every team starts off going, ‘We'll be fine if X happens,’ and it takes more than two weeks to show that X is not happening and they need to get them some Y. (Excluding the really bad teams, of course, who aren't looking to acquire veteran players in mid-season anyway.)

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

In Habsland somewhere there is a Dino7 who is optimistic about his club, and unlike ours he is actually right! Haha, j/k!

Seriously though, I don't know how anyone can be at ease with this team and it's trajectory. We are the anti Montreal in that we completely lack that decisiveness. Giving up picks for cast-offs, acquiring projects, long term contracts before they are necessary, sniffing around guys like Pinto, Cozens, McTavish and Rossi and not getting anything done. Habs are the Canadian Vegas now. Ruthless and fleecing teams like the Flames.

I sure hope we beat them tonight.

Pro tip: to succeed as a GM , fleece Treliving

The wizard transacts with Florida, they have 2 cups now

He packages up a first with Monahan, who they turned in to another first, and Montreal is now good