What should Huska do after the break?

[Locke]

Its understood that he's enrolled in an 'inflatable pool Oil wrestling' company that travels from town to town and puts on productions in the village square.

There is only one, small drawback. He...kind of...only fights children. Its morally dubious...but apparently a pretty good show!

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

A little misleading - team without Rooney on the ice is largely made up of lines 1-3. He's never played once on those lines that I can think of. I bet you can do a simiular stat for Lomberg. Rooney has very poor stats, but so do all the 4th line regulars except Costco (and his were a small sample).

They should probably rethink that line entirely. I need them to at least do no harm, and right now they are being exploited.

I was just using Rooney as the proxy for the 4th line because as you said he's the only piece that has played exclusively 4th line (Lomberg and Kirkland both have some stints on other lines).

In the end both Rooney and Lomberg contribute to the issues.

Love Lomberg but it was my concern from back when they signed him, having him as a regular on the 4th line each night kind of limits how that line is going to have to play and it means we weren't going with a young 4th line.

Something like Pospisil - Kerins - Klapka/Stromgren is what a "retooling" team should have as it's 4th line.

[shutout]

Originally Posted by stemit14

Assuming it’s 47 minutes of 5-on-5, I would try splitting it like this:

12 minutes: Huberdeau-Kadri-Posposil
12 minutes: Klapka-Zary-Coronato
11.5 minutes: Farabee-Frost-Sharangovich
11.5 minutes: Hunt-Backlund-Coleman

But it could vary game to game based on powerplays/penalty kills. Roll lines pretty evenly 5-on-5. Don’t really see any of those lines as getting caved in on advanced stats often. The line with the least defensive strength is likely the Kadri line - which is the scoring line anyways so that’s not uncommon.

I don’t see much of a disadvantage to these lines. The Kadri-Huberdeau chemistry is maintained. The Backlund-Coleman chemistry is maintained but less reliant on creating offence. Sharangovich has looked better playing with Frost than anyone else his year. The team could really use an offensive spark and I think putting Zary and Coronato together has the best chance of creating one with the current roster. Before his injury, I think most would agree that Zary and Coronato were the forwards that were creating the most scoring chances. Why not try them together? They look good on powerplays together.

The nice thing with the lines setup like this is that very rarely does a team have everybody on their game the same night. By balancing the lines properly it allows for those players that are doing better to get more ice time and those that are struggling to get less. If they are all doing great than it is not a problem just rolling four lines and pushing the pace of play every shift.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

The 4th line has been a black hole this year.

Rooney On ice: 7 GF - 16 GA, -9 , 39.0% xGF
Team without Rooney: 80 GF - 75 GA, +5, 50.7% xGF

And looking at our other centers at 5v5:

Kadri: 23 GF - 28 GA, -5, 49.6% xGF
Backlund: 24 GF - 21 GA, +3, 53.4% xGF

Backlund remains the best play driving center on this team...he's struggled the last 10 games or so but the rumour is he's also playing injured. (2 GF - 7 GA, 48.6% xGF in the last 10 games).

And that last ten games number is primarily driven by the Toronto game where he was something like 8%.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

What part of my summary of the stat do you have a problem with?

I've already said Backlund should be on the fourth line when he no longer deserves to be the shut down center.

I happen to think that's not now, and a pretty basic counting stat backs that up.

Not sure what the issue is to be honest.

And yeah I love having a stat that backs up what I'm seeing. I went 20 years in illogical BS arguments with Lanny on this site with nothing to look to prove an obvious take wrong.

Why are you taking offense? I don't have a problem with your summary, I have a problem with the stat.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Why are you taking offense? I don't have a problem with your summary, I have a problem with the stat.

I like the discussion. So out of curiosity, in your mind which good/great defensive forwards get misrepresented by the xGA stat or vice versa. I just always find it easier to think about concrete examples that I can attempt to relate to my eye test.

Two examples off the top of my head are Lindholm, and Sharangovich that were getting praise as very good defensive forwards from both Flames coaches and GMs, meanwhile having average to below average xGA.

[Locke]

Sumo Wrestling?

That'd be interesting...in it's own way.

[SeanCharles]

Give Solovyov more looks and try out some new forward combos.

Huberdeau-Kadri-Sharangovich
Zary-Frost-Coronato
Farabee-Backlund-Coleman
Lomberg-Pospisil-Klapka

Bahl-Andersson
Solovyov-Weegar
Bean-Pachal

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Why are you taking offense? I don't have a problem with your summary, I have a problem with the stat.

Not sure I'm taking offence to be honest. I'm just the other side of the argument.

Is there a stat you prefer?

I think it can evolve to have more divisions and parameters to create more shades of gray between a high danger and an innocent shot on net.

But I don't think there is a better way to look at defensive (or offensive) metrics of hockey players with a large enough sample size.

It's a pretty easy thing to defend.

Is it better to have less shots against from the slot when you're on the ice?

YES

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Bingo

And that last ten games number is primarily driven by the Toronto game where he was something like 8%.

Thing about defensive forwards who are given the tough assignments. Sometimes the elite offensive opponent gets the upper hand in a game. It happens. A guy like Backlund wins if he contains them, plays even if they get a point or two, and loses is they have a good game.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Bingo

And that last ten games number is primarily driven by the Toronto game where he was something like 8%.

Yeah it was the Colorado game where Mackinnon just crushed him, which isn't really surprising. Mackinnon has always had Backlund's number a bit and Mackinnon is better than he's ever been and Backlund is on the way down.

Otherwise he's still above 50% xGF in 6/10 games, with the Colorado, Buffalo, Minnesota, and Seattle games being the ones below 50%. Also outscored 0-4 in those games.

In the last 10 games that line has been very unlucky too with 2 goals at 5v5 - which is a 3.57% shooting percentage and .911 PDO.

Visually though you can tell he's labouring a bit lately. Whether it's been injury or something else he hasn't been quite as effective but his supposed decline has been overstated by some as well.

[Fan69]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Yeah it was the Colorado game where Mackinnon just crushed him, which isn't really surprising. Mackinnon has always had Backlund's number a bit and Mackinnon is better than he's ever been and Backlund is on the way down.

Otherwise he's still above 50% xGF in 6/10 games, with the Colorado, Buffalo, Minnesota, and Seattle games being the ones below 50%. Also outscored 0-4 in those games.

In the last 10 games that line has been very unlucky too with 2 goals at 5v5 - which is a 3.57% shooting percentage and .911 PDO.

Visually though you can tell he's labouring a bit lately. Whether it's been injury or something else he hasn't been quite as effective but his supposed decline has been overstated by some as well.

Overrated? No i dont believe that. The problem is is that we struggle to score and our second center is providing almost no offence?

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Fan69

Overrated? No i dont believe that. The problem is is that we struggle to score and our second center is providing almost no offence?

The problem is this team doesn't have a real 1st line center.

Kadri should be at best a 2 at this point of his career, and Backlund should be a 3.

His decline is being overstated because he's being asked to play a role (2nd line, toughest defensive minutes) that a soon to be 36 year old shouldn't have to play.

Also he's on pace for 15 goals, and 33 points. Which is a down season for him for sure in terms of assists but isn't that far off from his career numbers of 16 goals per 82 games.

[SutterBrother]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

The problem is this team doesn't have a real 1st line center.

Kadri should be at best a 2 at this point of his career, and Backlund should be a 3.

His decline is being overstated because he's being asked to play a role (2nd line, toughest defensive minutes) that a soon to be 36 year old shouldn't have to play.

Also he's on pace for 15 goals, and 33 points. Which is a down season for him for sure in terms of assists but isn't that far off from his career numbers of 16 goals per 82 games.

I assume he's also playing injured.

[420since1974]

Currently, the Flames have been using 4 primary Centers with the following F/O stats:
Frost = 51.4%
Rooney = 48.2%
Backlund = 47.6%
Kadri = 47.1%

So far this season, Calgary has also used five Wingers as part time Centers who have all taken at least 60 Face-Offs:
Coleman (LW/RW/C) = 55.6%
Sharangovich (RW/LW/C) = 49.6%
Coronato (RW) = 45.5%
Pospisil (RW/C) = 41.2%
Zary (LW/C) = 36%

In addition to their difficulties in scoring goals, winning Face-Offs has been a big issue for the Flames this season.
I don't see any help at C in the current prospect pool, so Conroy will need to draft and trade for Centers that can win at least 50% of the face-offs in the NHL.

[GioforPM]

Kadri’s faceoff stats are bad when you consider he also gets tossed a whole lot.

[Bingo]

I hope they don't draft on face off prowess as it's the last important thing to me as a center!

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I hope they don't draft on face off prowess as it's the last important thing to me as a center!

I don’t think anyone drafts based on faceoffs. But both stats and eye test say they are pretty important to the possession game. It’s situational of course. Centre ice - not so important. PK in your own zone - pretty important - a clear is 15 seconds gone on average.

[Bingo]

Mikael Backlund is a busy center, he takes just under 20 draws a game.

At 52% (great face off guy) he wins 10.2 face offs per game
At 48% (bad face off guy) he wins 9.5 face offs per game

And that's a busy guy.

Frost in 5 games has averaged 14.8 face offs.

At 52% (great face off guy) he wins 7.7 face offs per game
At 48% (bad face off guy) he wins 7.1 face offs per game

We are talking about less than one face off victory by centerman.

I'm glad Frost is a face off guy, but it's way down my list for the tool kit needed to play center in the NHL.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Mikael Backlund is a busy center, he takes just under 20 draws a game.

At 52% (great face off guy) he wins 10.2 face offs per game
At 48% (bad face off guy) he wins 9.5 face offs per game

And that's a busy guy.

Frost in 5 games has averaged 14.8 face offs.

At 52% (great face off guy) he wins 7.7 face offs per game
At 48% (bad face off guy) he wins 7.1 face offs per game

We are talking about less than one face off victory by centerman.

I'm glad Frost is a face off guy, but it's way down my list for the tool kit needed to play center in the NHL.

I've mentioned this a few times before, while winning faceoffs is not irrelevant, the difference between good and poor face off guys is largely irrelevant.

The difference is 1 a game.