Will Zary play his way into the Calder conversation?

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

If he keeps putting up points at his current clip, it's going to be Bedard and Zary at the top of the rookie leader board, with a substantial gap between Zary and 3rd place.

If he can manage to keep doing what he's doing (technically, he should be getting even better as the season progresses), I don't know how he isn't a finalist.

Edit: If the current top 5 P/GP continue to produce at their current rates for the rest of the season, it will finish like this:

Bedard: 74pts in 82 games.
Zary: 53pts in 72 games.
Carlsson: 49pts in 72 games
Rossi: 49pts in 82 games.
Voronkov: 45pts in 76 games.

Obviously any of them can/will fall off their current clip. One or two might even finish at a higher clip. All I'm saying is the "he won't be a finalist" folks aren't giving him enough credit, and I'll argue that there's a better chance they'll be wrong than right.

I would only add that I think some dmen will be strong candidates: Korchinski, Faber and Mintyukov. I think one of them is a finalist

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Also... there's a very good chance that Connor Zary finishes the season as the Flames' leader in points. Now, imagine we also manage to make the playoffs.

If that happens, it's not gonna be "is Zary a finalist." There's going to be serious consideration as people weigh the value of coasting along to 70 points on bottom feeder team vs coming into the league 10 games into the season and then leading a "looking like a bottom feeder" team right into the playoffs.

When you look at the Flames right now, Zary is 2nd in goals per game, 3rd in assists per game and 1st in points per game. All while being only 13th in minutes played per game.

It's not far fetched for him to lead this team in points at the end of the year, and this team to catch a wildcard spot. He's gonna get some 1st place Calder votes if that happens.

If Zary leads the Flames in points, they aren’t making the playoffs.

And Bedard is not coasting along at 70 points.

He has zero players to play with, and is getting his 70 points virtually with no help.

He’s literally the kingpin on every point he gets.

[kobasew19]

Sort of unrelated but does anyone know what is Zary’s official rookie card?

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

It's not far fetched for him to lead this team in points at the end of the year, and this team to catch a wildcard spot. He's gonna get some 1st place Calder votes if that happens.

I think if you look up far fetched in the dictionary this quote would appear

[FanIn80]

Which part is the most far-fetched... that a team 3 points out of a wildcard spot in Dec can make the playoffs? Or that the guy who leads the team in points per game in Dec could close the gap on the guy who's only 7 points ahead of him?

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I would only add that I think some dmen will be strong candidates: Korchinski, Faber and Mintyukov. I think one of them is a finalist

For sure. I figure it'll be Bedard, a defenceman (I was thinking Hughes, playing in the hockey-media heartland) and then whomever is in second place in rookie points. Zary has a pretty good chance of being in that spot.

[Philly06Cup]

Zary is on the Flames PP1 on the flank. Generally, you put your most skilled players on the flank and have them make all the hockey decisions to set up the PP. The other flank is Sharangovich, while Lindholm and Kadri play Bumper and Net Front.

Out of all of the Flames, the coaching trusts Zary (and Sharangovich) the most for offense. Kinda crazy, kinda sad.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Which part is the most far-fetched... that a team 3 points out of a wildcard spot in Dec can make the playoffs? Or that the guy who leads the team in points per game in Dec could close the gap on the guy who's only 7 points ahead of him?

Yeah, it's that second part. Especially since Zary's centre is also the guy who is the team points-leader, and has also scored at a higher rate in December than Zary. Kadri has 3G/8pts in 9GP. Zary has 4/6 on 9GP.

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[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Yeah, it's that second part. Especially since Zary's centre is also the guy who is the team points-leader, and has also scored at a higher rate in December than Zary. Kadri has 3G/8pts in 9GP. Zary has 4/6 on 9GP.

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I think it is more likely Zary takes over the points lead than the Flames making the playoffs

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Also... there's a very good chance that Connor Zary finishes the season as the Flames' leader in points. Now, imagine we also manage to make the playoffs.

If that happens, it's not gonna be "is Zary a finalist." There's going to be serious consideration as people weigh the value of coasting along to 70 points on bottom feeder team vs coming into the league 10 games into the season and then leading a "looking like a bottom feeder" team right into the playoffs.

When you look at the Flames right now, Zary is 2nd in goals per game, 3rd in assists per game and 1st in points per game. All while being only 13th in minutes played per game.

It's not far fetched for him to lead this team in points at the end of the year, and this team to catch a wildcard spot. He's gonna get some 1st place Calder votes if that happens.

Very good chance?

He's 4th in team scoring since he was recalled behind Kadri, Coleman and Sharangovich and tied with Weegar in points.

He's been very good, but he's doubtful to lead the team in points. especially missing all of October.

[gvitaly]

Posted it in the GDT by accident, so I'll copy it here as well:

A really good article discussing Zary's work on his skating, and his hockey IQ.

“I’ve heard that my whole life — that I won’t be fast enough, that I’m going to have to catch up, that my skating is not good enough,” Zary said.

“Strength and power go hand-in-hand,” Fujita explained. “For Connor, it was a combination of spending time on his technique and efficiency — because he was lacking on both — and then spending time in the gym and getting that strength built up.

“Now that he’s put in time in the gym and on the ice, now they’re there. I’ll tell you, and he will admit, he still has work to do with me. He still has goals to reach and things to accomplish, but he is well on his way. He’s making a career in the NHL. Now, it’s my job to work with him to sustain that career.”

https://calgaryherald.com/sports/hoc...l-breakthrough

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Very good chance?

He's 4th in team scoring since he was recalled behind Kadri, Coleman and Sharangovich and tied with Weegar in points.

He's been very good, but he's doubtful to lead the team in points. especially missing all of October.

But he also leads all of them, and the rest of the team, in points per games played. If absolutely nothing changes at all... no one gets hurt/suspended/benched... no one increases or decreases their scoring rate... this is how the season will end.

Kadri: 59 in 82 games.
Coleman: 57 in 82 games.
Zary: 53 in 72 games.
Lindholm: 52 in 82 games.
Sharangovich: 49 in 82 games.
Weegar: 49 in 82 games.

Obviously, the probability of things ending exactly like that is extremely low. Anything can happen. If Zary's clip goes up by even a small amount and Kadri drops by even a smaller amount and misses 2-3 games (suspended, injured)... that's all it takes.

Let's not forget that while he's leading the team in points per game, he's doing it in spite of being 13th in minutes played per game... and he's played a full 1 minute less per game on the powerplay than Kadri has.

Like, if we look at 5v5 totals per 60 minutes, it's not even close.

1. Connor Zary 8:06 TOI/GP, 2.36 G/60, 2.02 A/60, 4.38 P/60
2. Blake Coleman 10:18 TOI/GP, 1.27 G/60, 1.82 A/60, 3.09 P/60
3. Nazim Kadri 10:18 TOI/GP, 0.91 G/60, 2.18 A/60, 3.09 P/60

At those rates, even a small increase in 5v5 minutes would take care of most of the 7 point gap between him and Kadri. He's already been elevated to PP1, so thats also another bump that he's gotten this far without having.

The "dictionary definition of far-fetched" this is not.

Edit: It needs to be mentioned what a monster season Coleman is having (I mean relative to expectations, of course).

[SuperMatt18]

He's also shooting 30.4% and has an on ice shooting percentage of 12.33%

Those are going to come down to earth at some point (more the individual shooting percentage than the on ice)

[PepsiFree]

nvm I see you’re just rounding up instead of down

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

nvm I see you’re just rounding up instead of down

Edit: Yeah, but I can't remember if I rounded up for everyone regardless, or rounded up/down based on normal rules.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

He's also shooting 30.4% and has an on ice shooting percentage of 12.33%

Those are going to come down to earth at some point (more the individual shooting percentage than the on ice)

The fact that 2.9% more team shots result in goals when Zary's on the ice than when Kadri's on the ice just furthers my point.

Yeah 30% is unsustainable, but he's a rookie. We don't know what his norm is. Is it gonna come down to 20? 18? 15? 23? 7? He only has 7 goals, so I'm not overly concered with his individual shooting percentage, when all his other metrics indicate he's doing more with his ice time than anyone else on the team is. Indv SH% would be more relevant (to me, at least) if his breakdown was something like 12G and 4A instead of 7G and 9A.

[FanIn80]

Anyway, I'm not gonna die on this hill. A 7 point gap is not insurmountable for a player that leads all per game and per 60 scoring metrics. So, I'm happy to just wait and see what happens.

It's certainly a lot easier to say he's not gonna do it, than it is to say that he will... I'll give you guys that.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Which part is the most far-fetched... that a team 3 points out of a wildcard spot in Dec can make the playoffs? Or that the guy who leads the team in points per game in Dec could close the gap on the guy who's only 7 points ahead of him?

A team that is suppposedly trading 3 of their best players?

Their odds range from 15% to 17% depending on the source.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Anyway, I'm not gonna die on this hill. A 7 point gap is not insurmountable for a player that leads all per game and per 60 scoring metrics. So, I'm happy to just wait and see what happens.

It's certainly a lot easier to say he's not gonna do it, than it is to say that he will... I'll give you guys that.

But you said three things would / could happen

He would lead to team in points , Flames would make the playoffs and Zary would get 1st place Calder voter votes

All three are unlikely individually - combined them occurring is very far fetched

Zary would need to score 35-40 goals and finish with 85+ points in my opinion for the 3 things to happen - and that’s pretty far fetched

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

But you said three things would / could happen

He would lead to team in points , Flames would make the playoffs and Zary would get 1st place Calder voter votes

All three are unlikely individually - combined them occurring is very far fetched

Zary would need to score 35-40 goals and finish with 85+ points in my opinion for the 3 things to happen - and that’s pretty far fetched

No no no... I said there was a "very good chance he leads the Flames in points" and then I said "imagine if we also make the playoffs."

And then I said IF both of those things were to happen, he's going to get some first place Calder votes as people compare 70 points on a bottom feeder to leading a "looked like a bottom feeder" into the playoffs.

As to your 40 goals, 85 points thing... we're only 3 points out of a wildcard spot right now, with no one on this team on pace for even 60 points.


There is nothing far fetched about anything I said. It's not absurd to think we close the 3 point gap and make the playoffs, it's not absurd that Zary closes the 7 point gap and leads the team in points, and it's not absurd that if both of those things happen, he gets some first place Calder votes.