Friedman's Nov 1st 32 thoughts update on Flames

[bluejays]

If the rumors are true, I’ll say it again, nobody in this organization has the balls to push back on players. There is no long term vision. It’s all about making the playoffs and hoping they go somewhere. To offer mediocre players long term deals screams of desperation for being loved. Such a terribly run organization.

[Yamer]

Is there any news or reason for optimism that Kylington is ever coming back? Kinda feels like the vibe is he's played his last game.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Yamer

Is there any news or reason for optimism that Kylington is ever coming back? Kinda feels like the vibe is he's played his last game.

Until we hear something to the contrary, I'd say it's safe to assume he's done.

[Tacoman]

This isn't nearly Orange Julius calibre of reporting but I did see Oliver at Earls this week so the fact that he's still in town would indicate that there's some reason for hope.

[ComixZone]

Flames struggling out of the gate really gives me hope for the speed at which this thing can look different. If the Flames can maximize their own first round pick this year and get into the top-3, that's massive.

- Flames own 1st round pick value is maximized.
- Flames own 2nd round pick value is maximized.
- Flames draft twice more in the 1st round (Lindholm, Hanifin trades)
- Flames acquire two good prospects/young players (Lindholm, Hanifin trades)
- Flames acquire additional depth picks for Tanev and Zadorov

Then next season we're looking at:

- Top-3 Pick likely making the team
- Two new prospects/young players enter the fold (Lindholm, Hanifin trades)
- Zary, Coronato, Solovyov, Wolf, Pelletier all become every day contributors (possibly Poirier too?)
- Flames have good amounts of salary cap available
- Prospect pool then features two additional 2024 1st round prospects, a high 2nd round prospect, Morin, Poirier, and Kuznetsov.

It won't be the scorched Earth rebuild I'd hope for, but it'd be way more entertaining/hopeful than what we've been exposed to recently.

To make sure they do maximize that 1st round pick in 2023 though, they should get to trading Lindholm and Hanifin in the next few weeks here. Commit to it early and maximize that 1st.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Cleveland Steam Whistle

I'm by no means a contract value expert. But I think what gets lost when we look at extension offers yet to be signed, if that comparing them to contracts already signed isn't exactly an apples to apples comparison. Slotting Hanifin for example, into a tier of player vs. his peers is easy. Understanding what his AAV should be on a new 8 year deal, vs. the AAV of a deal signed say 2 years ago, is tough. Cap is likely to go up, so for lack of a better word, inflation is kicking in on the new deals. And it's not just an exercise of what should the AAV be in year 1, but what should it be in year 4 of deal, especially with a younger player like Hanifin. For both team and player it's a massive prediction exercise on: What should the value of Hanifin the player is right now be in say 4 years and will Hanifin be the same Tier of player in 4 years, or less of a player, more of a player, the same.

Point being, newer deals are likely to be higher than older deals, so saying that's more than what player XXX is getting paid on this deal, isn't exactly a fair comparison.

On the last comment about Edwards being a villain. I've never understood this need to vilify him at all, but more importantly, why do we need a villian? Just because we aren't happy with results, why does someone need to be the bad person? Just some people doing their best but not getting the results we hoped for, there is no villain.

Also, this is a contract for a 26 YO, not a 30 YO. For a 30 YO, you have to factor in that the late years will have poor value, but for a 26 YO, you don't.

$7.5M (if true) is more than Hanifin is worth right now, but for the bulk of the contract, it won't be, as salaries continue to rise.

I am against signing him for that, and would like to see him traded, but if we're going to debate the number, let's do so rationally.

[Jiri Hrdina]

I'm with you but realistically pushing to trade them in the next few weeks I think will be challenging until the market opens up a bit. And I suspect any 1sts will be pushed out to 2025 and/or have protection.
Otherwise aligned.

[D as in David]

Any trade for Lindholm or Hanifin happening in the next few weeks would only happen if the offers far exceed what the Flames think they could reasonably expect to get at the trade deadline.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I'm with you but realistically pushing to trade them in the next few weeks I think will be challenging until the market opens up a bit. And I suspect any 1sts will be pushed out to 2025 and/or have protection.
Otherwise aligned.

The push to 2025 really wouldn't concern me. With how volatile the NHL standings can be year to year, having picks another year out add some potential value to them.

Originally Posted by D as in David

Any trade for Lindholm or Hanifin happening in the next few weeks would only happen if the offers far exceed what the Flames think they could reasonably expect to get at the trade deadline.

I think viewing it that way would be a mistake. The best asset the Flames have is time to maximize the value of their own 1st round pick - that's the gamechanger. That's the one you need to push for. What would be the difference between waiting for the Deadline and trading them in November/December? We're not going to be talking about the inclusion of a 1st vs. the exclusion of a 1st in any trades.

Flames focus has to be on maximizing their own pick(s).

[Ashes]

Originally Posted by Cleveland Steam Whistle

I'm by no means a contract value expert. But I think what gets lost when we look at extension offers yet to be signed, if that comparing them to contracts already signed isn't exactly an apples to apples comparison. Slotting Hanifin for example, into a tier of player vs. his peers is easy. Understanding what his AAV should be on a new 8 year deal, vs. the AAV of a deal signed say 2 years ago, is tough. Cap is likely to go up, so for lack of a better word, inflation is kicking in on the new deals. And it's not just an exercise of what should the AAV be in year 1, but what should it be in year 4 of deal, especially with a younger player like Hanifin. For both team and player it's a massive prediction exercise on: What should the value of Hanifin the player is right now be in say 4 years and will Hanifin be the same Tier of player in 4 years, or less of a player, more of a player, the same.

Point being, newer deals are likely to be higher than older deals, so saying that's more than what player XXX is getting paid on this deal, isn't exactly a fair comparison.

On the last comment about Edwards being a villain. I've never understood this need to vilify him at all, but more importantly, why do we need a villian? Just because we aren't happy with results, why does someone need to be the bad person? Just some people doing their best but not getting the results we hoped for, there is no villain.

I would have thought that including an "lol" made it pretty clear it was a tongue in cheek comment, not a serious admission that anyone is an actual villain. I think Edwards is a meddling owner and has probably contributed much more than his fair share to keeping the Flames mired in mediocrity for a long time with his mandate of making the playoffs over anything else, but of course I don't actually think he's a villain like from some superhero movie..

And yes comparing players to other players who's contracts were signed years ago is not apples to apples in most cases that's fair. But considering the cap hasn't moved much in a few years I do think those valuations are within the same ballpark, especially Hampus Lindholm's contract which was just signed within the last 1-2 years. I'm not looking to argue about Hanifin's exact worth my point is that he's not a $7.5M defensemen as it stands right now, today, IMO. And the fact that a significant number of superior players than him are getting paid less just highlighted that for me.

[CroCop]

Originally Posted by D as in David

Any trade for Lindholm or Hanifin happening in the next few weeks would only happen if the offers far exceed what the Flames think they could reasonably expect to get at the trade deadline.

I agree plus later make it easier for teams to fit them under their cap. But the fear of injury would make me consider any solid offer sooner than later.

[Igottago]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Flames struggling out of the gate really gives me hope for the speed at which this thing can look different. If the Flames can maximize their own first round pick this year and get into the top-3, that's massive.

- Flames own 1st round pick value is maximized.
- Flames own 2nd round pick value is maximized.
- Flames draft twice more in the 1st round (Lindholm, Hanifin trades)
- Flames acquire two good prospects/young players (Lindholm, Hanifin trades)
- Flames acquire additional depth picks for Tanev and Zadorov

Then next season we're looking at:

- Top-3 Pick likely making the team
- Two new prospects/young players enter the fold (Lindholm, Hanifin trades)
- Zary, Coronato, Solovyov, Wolf, Pelletier all become every day contributors (possibly Poirier too?)
- Flames have good amounts of salary cap available
- Prospect pool then features two additional 2024 1st round prospects, a high 2nd round prospect, Morin, Poirier, and Kuznetsov.

It won't be the scorched Earth rebuild I'd hope for, but it'd be way more entertaining/hopeful than what we've been exposed to recently.

To make sure they do maximize that 1st round pick in 2023 though, they should get to trading Lindholm and Hanifin in the next few weeks here. Commit to it early and maximize that 1st.

Fully agree, but do you have any faith the Flames would actually do this? I'm still not convinced they are fully awake to the reality of the situation. They threw massive contract offers at these guys weeks ago.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Flames struggling out of the gate really gives me hope for the speed at which this thing can look different. If the Flames can maximize their own first round pick this year and get into the top-3, that's massive.

- Flames own 1st round pick value is maximized.
- Flames own 2nd round pick value is maximized.
- Flames draft twice more in the 1st round (Lindholm, Hanifin trades)
- Flames acquire two good prospects/young players (Lindholm, Hanifin trades)
- Flames acquire additional depth picks for Tanev and Zadorov

Then next season we're looking at:

- Top-3 Pick likely making the team
- Two new prospects/young players enter the fold (Lindholm, Hanifin trades)
- Zary, Coronato, Solovyov, Wolf, Pelletier all become every day contributors (possibly Poirier too?)
- Flames have good amounts of salary cap available
- Prospect pool then features two additional 2024 1st round prospects, a high 2nd round prospect, Morin, Poirier, and Kuznetsov.

It won't be the scorched Earth rebuild I'd hope for, but it'd be way more entertaining/hopeful than what we've been exposed to recently.

To make sure they do maximize that 1st round pick in 2023 though, they should get to trading Lindholm and Hanifin in the next few weeks here. Commit to it early and maximize that 1st.

Yeah, in the "contracts on hold" thread I said this:

Moving on from past deals and onto the present topic, the hold on contracts means one of a few options:

a. This is a negotiation tactic by Conroy.
b. This is a management decision that negotiations are becoming a distraction (see the team's record) and should wait until the on ice performance improves.
c. There's been a change in strategy on what the team should look like going forward.

If it's C, you will have a team with a few vets: Huberdeau, Kadri, Weegar, Andersson, Backlund, Markstrom. And a bunch of kids coming up: Coronato, Zary, Pelletier, Wolf, Ruzicka, Honzek, Poirier, Solovyev etc. Plus whoever they draft with their present picks and what they get for Hanifin, Lidstrom, Zadorov, Tanev and Dube. Maybe they also trade guys with term like Coleman and Mangiapane.

Start of 24-25 you might see a lineup of:

Huberdeau-Kadri-Mangiapane
Zary-Backlund-Sharangovich
Pelletier-Ruzicka-Coronato
Duehr-Hunt-Schwindt

Weegar-Andersson
Poirier-X
X-X

There may be some better young players as well depending on the returns for the trades.

Maybe this is what "retool" means.

[Toonage]

The cap would dictate what could be done when it comes to trading Lindholm or Hanifin in the next little while. If its done soon, contracts are probably coming back, even with the Flames retaining. If its young players, thats fine. The proposed deal with Columbus yesterday where the Flames would get Sillinger and a pick would work out for example.

Just sending Lindholm even retained practically anywhere without anything but a pick coming back would not.

[getbak]

You have to have a trade partner in order to make a trade. So many teams are tight against the cap that, even if they wanted to, you're not likely to see any big moves until the New Year -- probably after the All-Star break.

[Jiggy]

You keep the fat cats around for a few more months. Do you see them giving a crap right now? Not really. The young guys are backchecking hard and trying to make things happen. The fat cats will keep this team trending toward a top 5 pick.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

The push to 2025 really wouldn't concern me. With how volatile the NHL standings can be year to year, having picks another year out add some potential value to them.
.

I agree. Locking into needing "this year picks" often ensures they are late ones. We saw that when they traded Iginla and Bouwmeester. They probably would have been better off with picks in future years. But they were locked in with getting 1sts for that year.
So they got two late picks, neither of which turned out at all.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by getbak

You have to have a trade partner in order to make a trade. So many teams are tight against the cap that, even if they wanted to, you're not likely to see any big moves until the New Year -- probably after the All-Star break.

They are expiring contracts, the Flames should be able to hold cap.

[VilleN]

Hanifin is the D version of Ryan Nothing-Happens. No desire to hang on to him the way the season and team are looking - he's a good minute muncher, he's young, but I wouldn't pay more than 6m/yr for him.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Flames struggling out of the gate really gives me hope for the speed at which this thing can look different. If the Flames can maximize their own first round pick this year and get into the top-3, that's massive.

- Flames own 1st round pick value is maximized.
- Flames own 2nd round pick value is maximized.
- Flames draft twice more in the 1st round (Lindholm, Hanifin trades)
- Flames acquire two good prospects/young players (Lindholm, Hanifin trades)
- Flames acquire additional depth picks for Tanev and Zadorov

Then next season we're looking at:

- Top-3 Pick likely making the team
- Two new prospects/young players enter the fold (Lindholm, Hanifin trades)
- Zary, Coronato, Solovyov, Wolf, Pelletier all become every day contributors (possibly Poirier too?)
- Flames have good amounts of salary cap available
- Prospect pool then features two additional 2024 1st round prospects, a high 2nd round prospect, Morin, Poirier, and Kuznetsov.

It won't be the scorched Earth rebuild I'd hope for, but it'd be way more entertaining/hopeful than what we've been exposed to recently.

To make sure they do maximize that 1st round pick in 2023 though, they should get to trading Lindholm and Hanifin in the next few weeks here. Commit to it early and maximize that 1st.

My worry is they see this level of re(whatever) as scorched earth.

But you’re bang on. It wouldn’t lose much for what we’re seeing on ice right now and it’d supercharge our prospect pool in a hurry.