The Eternal Playoff Optimism Thread

[PuckSlap]

The issues with this team have been out in plain site for a couple months now. If Brad treliving was being honest with us and himself, he would have made moves already. But he and many others are in denial.

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[Always Earned Never Given]

Bold prediction:

Flames will become the first and only team in the NHL to have no comeback wins in the 3rd period in the regular season and 16 come from behind wins in the playoffs!

[blender]

Originally Posted by PuckSlap

The issues with this team have been out in plain site for a couple months now. If Brad treliving was being honest with us and himself, he would have made moves already. But he and many others are in denial.

Sent from my Pixel 7 Pro using Tapatalk

Wrong thread.

[blender]

I am hoping to see a new Markstrom now that his wife has has the baby. No guarantees, but solid goaltending will be needed to make the playoffs.

[kyuss275]

Seattle has really come back to earth. Flames are only 4 points behind and I don’t think Seattle is going to get back on a roll. Unfortunately Nashville is also playing well now. I don’t think the last wildcard spot point total is going to be as high as some predicted.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by kyuss275

Seattle has really come back to earth. Flames are only 4 points behind and I don’t think Seattle is going to get back on a roll. Unfortunately Nashville is also playing well now. I don’t think the last wildcard spot point total is going to be as high as some predicted.

You wonder times about teams like Nashville where management sells at the deadline and all of a sudden it lights a fire under the team. What a win it would be for them to make the playoffs after getting solid assets at the trade deadline as a seller.

[Always Earned Never Given]

I checked Flames H2H record vs teams they play till end of schedule.

Ironically they played 22 games vs those teams (same as what is left) and have a 11-5-6 .681% which would get them to 96 pts and isn't that what the Snek wants?

Oh and again I believe I mentioned it a few times already. The No Goods are the ones that will not make it as with the teams they face down the stretch, they will get no more than 92-94 points.

Also Nashville has a really tough schedule in April and Min has many away games.

Seattle even if they are struggling, have a really easy schedule so it looks that they hit 100 pts this season.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Always Earned Never Given

If your predictions come true, they will leap frog Edmonton as their remaining 22 games are brutal. Edm might get to 92 or 94 points only.

I've got Seattle with the easiest schedule in the league at .494

Calgary 7th .527
Edmonton 11th .543
Winnipeg 17th .561

Not a huge change between Calgary and Edmonton ... Winnipeg might be the target.

The Jets are the anti-Flames ...

5th in PDO (all situations)
5thi n SV% (all situations)
16th in xGF% (all situations)

Calgary is 32nd, 29th and 5th in those categories.

[Erick Estrada]

It's actually a miracle the Flames are still in the playoff race when you consider how snakebitten offensively they have been combined with arguably the worst goaltending in the league.

[Robbob]

A win tonight would be biggest 2 points that were ever awarded if the Flames can win. Could end the night 2, 3, and 4 points behind the 8th, 7th, and 3rd Pacific spot.

[Always Earned Never Given]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I've got Seattle with the easiest schedule in the league at .494

Calgary 7th .527
Edmonton 11th .543
Winnipeg 17th .561

Not a huge change between Calgary and Edmonton ... Winnipeg might be the target.

The Jets are the anti-Flames ...

5th in PDO (all situations)
5thi n SV% (all situations)
16th in xGF% (all situations)

Calgary is 32nd, 29th and 5th in those categories.

Bingo,

We need to go one step further as SOS does not show how well or poorly the team has played vs those teams. In CGY case, if they get the same result pts % vs the teams remaining, they would get 30 to 31 pts in the 22 games left.

As for Edm they either play top teams (Bos, Dal, Tor Vgs or bottom feeders)

So i will need to do the same exercise and give a split vs TO? as they haven't played them yet.


Ok so for Edm they picked up 20 pts in 19 games and if I go by H2H left and give them the split vs TO, that gives them 23 pts in their last 21 games so 95 pts for the season

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Always Earned Never Given

Bingo,

We need to go one step further as SOS does not show how well or poorly the team has played vs those teams. In CGY case, if they get the same result pts % vs the teams remaining, they would get 30 to 31 pts in the 22 games left.

As for Edm they either play top teams (Bos, Dal, Tor Vgs or bottom feeders)

So i will need to do the same exercise and give a split vs TO? as they haven't played them yet.

Always interesting to walk out a theory behind a model for sure.

If that's your assumption ... go for it!

I'm more stuck in win % home and away and that's it. The strength of the opponent literally.

[Always Earned Never Given]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Always interesting to walk out a theory behind a model for sure.

If that's your assumption ... go for it!

I'm more stuck in win % home and away and that's it. The strength of the opponent literally.

For whatever reason some teams styles match better with others.

Flames could have the same exact strength of opponent as you mentionned but with 1 or 2 eastern road trips and games vs teams they do not fair well agains (Habs, Det, T.B, Was, NJ, etc)

And if it was the case, I wouldn't have posted anything as the record would have been putrid.


Thank god they only have 3 left vs East where they are brutal 11-11-7.


Above you mention ,527 as strength of schedule.

I checked out East and if Flames had 2 games remaining vs each team in position 6 to 16 (roughly ,520%) they only got 22 pts in 21 games.

[Tsawwassen]

Originally Posted by boogerz

My realistic: Sutter makes changes too late (e.g. similar to how he didn't put the Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk line together until playoff hopes were gone in 2020-21) and the Flames tread water to 9th place in the division...missing the playoffs.

My optimistic: firepower continues to be traded out of the western conference and the Flames are able to coast to 8th place in the division...making the playoffs

There are only 8 teams in the Pacific Division. The Ducks are in 8th place in the division and can't make the playoffs. No way the Flames go on a downward spiral like that. I think you meant to say conference.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Always Earned Never Given

Bingo,

We need to go one step further as SOS does not show how well or poorly the team has played vs those teams. In CGY case, if they get the same result pts % vs the teams remaining, they would get 30 to 31 pts in the 22 games left.

As for Edm they either play top teams (Bos, Dal, Tor Vgs or bottom feeders)

So i will need to do the same exercise and give a split vs TO? as they haven't played them yet.


Ok so for Edm they picked up 20 pts in 19 games and if I go by H2H left and give them the split vs TO, that gives them 23 pts in their last 21 games so 95 pts for the season

How much weight are you giving a team's record against other teams though? You're talking about a sample of 1 to 3 games for each team.

[Always Earned Never Given]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

How much weight are you giving a team's record against other teams though? You're talking about a sample of 1 to 3 games for each team.

As mentioned above, that is their head to head record vs remaining teams left on schedule this year.

Just to show that they haven't faired well against them so far (speaking of Edm).

Not implying that history will repeat itself but this is the Eternal Playoff Thread so wanted to bring some positives.

I did the same for Cgy, Min and Wpg and again if history repeats itself,

Wpg with 99 pts
Min with 99 pts
Cgy with 97 pts

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I've got Seattle with the easiest schedule in the league at .494

Calgary 7th .527
Edmonton 11th .543
Winnipeg 17th .561

Not a huge change between Calgary and Edmonton ... Winnipeg might be the target.

The Jets are the anti-Flames ...

5th in PDO (all situations)
5thi n SV% (all situations)
16th in xGF% (all situations)

Calgary is 32nd, 29th and 5th in those categories.

People talk about PDO as if it is a measure of luck. As far as I can tell, it can be quite reflective of style of play, and the Flames come by their PDO honestly

They get a low contribution from shooting percentage by leading the league in low danger shots for.

On the sv.% / shots against side, they get a low contribution as they allow few low danger shots, and are middle of the pack in medium danger shots. (Decently good at preventing high danger shots but that mean allowing 3 per game where a bad team allows 4)

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

People talk about PDO as if it is a measure of luck. As far as I can tell, it can be quite reflective of style of play, and the Flames come by their PDO honestly

They get a low contribution from shooting percentage by leading the league in low danger shots for.

On the sv.% / shots against side, they get a low contribution as they allow few low danger shots, and are middle of the pack in medium danger shots. (Decently good at preventing high danger shots but that mean allowing 3 per game where a bad team allows 4)

There is a quality aspect to PDO for sure - if your team is less talented, it's shooting percentage will be consistently lower than a more talented team.

However, that difference is much more marginal than you are implying. The Flames' current PDO is almost off the charts bad - no team remains at that level.

You keep trying to make a point, based entirely on your subjective opinion, about the quality, and implications of the stats. Even though I am a stats guy, I am not a fan of hockey stats, because they contain too much noise, and are unable to generate enough 'like' data points. However, your criticism of this stat is way over the top, and your conclusions are off base.

[Philly06Cup]

Calgary is a top three team in the West with historically bad goaltending and a lot of bad luck.

Last game vs Boston (on a b2b): Completely smoked them in possession, chances, etc. The Boston Bruins who are odds on Cup favorites and chasing history for wins in a season. The Flames showed they are near the same level as the Bruins.

The betting odds also support this. Pregame, Boston was -125 to Calgary +115 ==> Calgary was 45% to win. Based on your average dumdum local fan opinion of this team, you'd think Calgary was 25 or 30% to win. NO. They were almost a coinflip to beat the best team in hockey.

Daily betting odds have Calgary in the same tier as the Western elites of Edmonton/Dallas/Colorado. These are very efficient markets shaped by sophisticated models and millions of actual betting dollars. None of those teams are planning on blowing up their teams.

If the Flames suck as much as you think they do, put your money where your mouth is and bet against them for the rest of the season.

This is not a team you blow up. They are playing hockey the right way. This is a team you be patient with. Things will turn around, goaltending will improve (possibly with a certain callup). Then we will see what this team really is.

[Johnny Makarov]

and even with the putrid goaltending, if we had an average powerplay we would be top 3 in the west.