Strength of Schedule Update

[Bingo]

Updated.

Flames still toughest schedule but the "kink" is flattening out with games against Montreal and Arizona

[Enoch Root]

Pretty crazy to have played 30% of the season already, and still have a differential of over 6. You look at this chart and you would think it must be about 10 games into the season - no way it could be into December.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Pretty crazy to have played 30% of the season already, and still have a differential of over 6. You look at this chart and you would think it must be about 10 games into the season - no way it could be into December.

Good point.

I guess with an imbalanced schedule it will never fully true up as well.

[Strange Brew]

Does anyone have a better remaining schedule than Arizona? The 5th easiest strength of schedule and after the Oilers game they will have 16 more home games than away games the rest of the season.

Not good in the race for last overall.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Pretty crazy to have played 30% of the season already, and still have a differential of over 6. You look at this chart and you would think it must be about 10 games into the season - no way it could be into December.

Still haven't played the bottom 3 teams in their div...pretty crazy on December 6th

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Good point.

I guess with an imbalanced schedule it will never fully true up as well.

it will never go perfectly flat, but the top-to-bottom differential will be more like 1 (not 6) as the season progresses. Maybe 2, in years where the conferences are really imbalanced

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Good point.

I guess with an imbalanced schedule it will never fully true up as well.

Also, bad teams generally have a tougher schedule because they don't get to play themselves.

[Bingo]

Updated after the Montreal game. .. two lesser opponents on the trip.

Gap from easiest to next team down to 1.06 from 1.19 positions (original post was 1.90 positions).

[Always Earned Never Given]

Fun fact regarding the weird schedule:

Flames have handed less points to their western conference foes (6 pts)
than the top teams in the NHL.

Boston: 8 points given vs the east
N.J.: 14 points given vs the east
Tor: 10 points given vs the east
Vegas: 13 points given vs the west

[bubbsy]

Does this strength of schedule topic really hold up? Flames have lost to a lot of teams not in the playoffs (buffalo, Colombia, Montreal x 2, Nashville).

I feel like the flames have the same type of challenges (inability to score, losing the high danger chance numbers) against good and bad team's alike.

[GullFoss]

To me, the biggest problems holding this team back is the lack of offensive production, both from primary offensive players and secondary players. Some downgrade in finishing (between Huberdeau + Kadri vs Johnny + Chuckie) was to be expected, but there's far more going on than simply less finishing talent. The lack of production isn't primarily from being unable to finish, but from a lack of generating high-danger opportunities. This team is weak at generating high quality scoring chances, both 5-on-5 and on the powerplay. The other issue is a lack of discipline and a number of careless penalties taken by flames players.

To me, this speaks to players not showing up ready to play with the focus and intensity required to generate scoring chances and stay out of the box. And the eye-test confirms this. The top-6 in particular hasn't been good enough.

[calgaryred]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

Does this strength of schedule topic really hold up? Flames have lost to a lot of teams not in the playoffs (buffalo, Colombia, Montreal x 2, Nashville).



I feel like the flames have the same type of challenges (inability to score, losing the high danger chance numbers) against good and bad team's alike.

It does if they continue to dominate the Western Conference where most of their games are against

Sent from my SM-G990U1 using Tapatalk

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

Does this strength of schedule topic really hold up? Flames have lost to a lot of teams not in the playoffs (buffalo, Colombia, Montreal x 2, Nashville).

I feel like the flames have the same type of challenges (inability to score, losing the high danger chance numbers) against good and bad team's alike.

The strength of schedule is just a way to measure who they've played.

It wasn't meant to suggest they are going to clean up the rest of the way.

You have to work a little harder to spin an easier schedule as anything than a positive though right?

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

Does this strength of schedule topic really hold up? Flames have lost to a lot of teams not in the playoffs (buffalo, Colombia, Montreal x 2, Nashville).

I feel like the flames have the same type of challenges (inability to score, losing the high danger chance numbers) against good and bad team's alike.

Maybe if you have a selective memory...Flames have won the high danger chances numbers in the vast majority of their games. Christ they out high dangered Montreal 19-6

Flames are 4-2-2 in their 8 games since the season long 6 game road trip...they have one Eastern trip left this entire season and have played the west really well despite not playing a bottom 3 team in their own division. A division with a team that has one regulation win in mid December.

There are no guarantees but it is extremely likely they have a better points percentage in their remaining games than they have had this far.

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by Bingo

The strength of schedule is just a way to measure who they've played.

It wasn't meant to suggest they are going to clean up the rest of the way.

You have to work a little harder to spin an easier schedule as anything than a positive though right?

I didn't mean to spin anything. I was hoping it would point to the flames struggling 30 games in because they've just played better team's more but their struggles against bad teams refutes that type of notion.

I don't quit understand your last sentence.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

I didn't mean to spin anything. I was hoping it would point to the flames struggling 30 games in because they've just played better team's more but their struggles against bad teams refutes that type of notion.

I don't quit understand your last sentence.

Overall they have played better teams though

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Maybe if you have a selective memory...Flames have won the high danger chances numbers in the vast majority of their games. Christ they out high dangered Montreal 19-6

Flames are 4-2-2 in their 8 games since the season long 6 game road trip...they have one Eastern trip left this entire season and have played the west really well despite not playing a bottom 3 team in their own division. A division with a team that has one regulation win in mid December.

There are no guarantees but it is extremely likely they have a better points percentage in their remaining games than they have had this far.

Flames are 21st in High Danger chances for in the league. They are 5th best in the league against.

I do feel the Flames aren't great 5 on 5 especially compared to last year.

But people need to be more patient. When comparing to last year's team this team has so far had a tough schedule, significantly more injuries and a large turnover in players. Lots of time to get going as long as the injuries don't start to pile up again here.

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Maybe if you have a selective memory...Flames have won the high danger chances numbers in the vast majority of their games. Christ they out high dangered Montreal 19-6

Flames are 4-2-2 in their 8 games since the season long 6 game road trip...they have one Eastern trip left this entire season and have played the west really well despite not playing a bottom 3 team in their own division. A division with a team that has one regulation win in mid December.

There are no guarantees but it is extremely likely they have a better points percentage in their remaining games than they have had this far.

I appreciate this response more than the sarcastic one above, appreciate that.

Even in the last 8 games, flames have lost the high danger chance battle (all strength) in 5.

That being said, I can agree/hope that flames will ideally figure things out more and are able to use the improved play/identity to their advantage over a relatively weaker remaining schedule. From what I'm seeing (not necessarily the stats) flames being better seems to be more important than who they are even playing. They actually look better in games against good teams...

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

I didn't mean to spin anything. I was hoping it would point to the flames struggling 30 games in because they've just played better team's more but their struggles against bad teams refutes that type of notion.

I don't quit understand your last sentence.

Having an easier schedule can only be a good thing. To say it doesn't matter because they've sucked against bad teams too doesn't change that.

If you walk out the same level of suck in the next 2/3 of the season you will get more wins because you have a greater margin of error against weaker opposition.

[Strange Brew]

I've argued before that the differences in strength of schedule in the NHL are very minor compared to all the other factors that are out there so I won't repeat any of that. I will just make a couple of points:

Based on opponent's winning percentage only and nothing else, Flames would gain 3 points on Seattle rest of year. I mention Seattle because they have the hardest remaining schedule of teams Flames are competing with from the division.

The SOS graphs don't take into account home/away. Flames have the easiest SOS remaining in the league but I'd argue the Coyotes have an easier remaining schedule. They have 14 more home games than road games rest of the way. Flames have 3 more road games.