Gambling commercials and the NHL

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

I'm lucky; I didn't need them to advertise to make me not bet.

Wherever there's a gambling house, the game is rigged in their favour. Since I know basic probability theory, I know that in the long run I am certain to lose any game where the house takes a percentage – so I don't gamble, ever.

The saddest complaint in the world is, ‘I was told there would be no math!’ There's always math. I feel sorry for people who can't handle that, and I feel contempt for the people who take advantage of them for it.

Lots of people (relatively speaking) beat the house in sports betting .

The online books (and Vegas) just ban the good betters .

It is a skill based “game” in the sense that over the long term you aren’t guaranteed to mathematically lose

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Lots of people (relatively speaking) beat the house in sports betting .

The online books (and Vegas) just ban the good betters .

Which means that they aren't beating the house anymore.

It is a skill based “game” in the sense that over the long term you aren’t guaranteed to mathematically lose

The only reliable way to overcome the house advantage is by having inside information – which, in practical terms, means knowing who is willing to shave points or throw games. The vig in the online betting houses is enormous.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Lots of people (relatively speaking) beat the house in sports betting .

The online books (and Vegas) just ban the good betters .

It is a skill based “game” in the sense that over the long term you aren’t guaranteed to mathematically lose

They want you to think it is skill-based but the spread is so wide it guarantees that only a tiny minority will be fortunate enough to win over time

[dino7c]

These guys are so scummy they can cancel bets for almost anything...Ive had season prop bets cancelled months later for no reason...suspected fraud ect.

Be careful...most of these online sites are a grey area. If you are making small bets here and there they will let it slide...win a big one and its "sorry guy, Ontario or US only"

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

They want you to think it is skill-based but the spread is so wide it guarantees that only a tiny minority will be fortunate enough to win over time

That’s not true at all. The spread is set to induce an equal amount of bets on both sides, not always true odds on winning. If you mean the Vig for the house is high - it depends on the sport and the sportbook . Competition has brought the vig down a lot vs say old school sports select

There are tons of professional sports betters who make a ton of money . I work with the gaming companies for a living . It’s way more than you would expect .

Just stay away from Parlays . They are 95% of the profit!

If you stay casual and take advantage of multiple bonuses across books you can almost play for free !

[SutterBrother]

In about 20 years there will be documentaries about how this was allowed for a period of time and how much it damaged both the sport, but much moreso the poor saps who lost everything.

Heavy social engineering to take everything from you.

It'll probably end when it turns out a cup winner was fraudulent. Refs, players, who can say? Huge financial stakes.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

That’s not true at all. The spread is set to induce an equal amount of bets on both sides, not always true odds on winning. If you mean the Vig for the house is high - it depends on the sport and the sportbook . Competition has brought the vig down a lot vs say old school sports select

There are tons of professional sports betters who make a ton of money . I work with the gaming companies for a living . It’s way more than you would expect .

Just stay away from Parlays . They are 95% of the profit!

If you stay casual and take advantage of multiple bonuses across books you can almost play for free !

You're confusing issues here. I understand that odds are based on flows, not on expected outcomes. What I am saying is the spread between the two sides of a bet is really wide (what we call the bid/ask spread in finance). The wide spread means a LOT of the money goes to the house, before the bet even happens. To put it into numbers, if 10% of the betting total is gone up front, you don't need to be right 51% of the time to make money, you need to be right 56.7% of the time.

And the more you bet, the more unlikely that is.

Then there is the fact that human behavior gets in the way and makes us more.likely to make mistakes, but that's a whole other argument

[SutterBrother]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

You're confusing issues here. I understand that odds are based on flows, not on expected outcomes. What I am saying is the spread between the two sides of a bet is really wide (what we call the bid/ask spread in finance). The wide spread means a LOT of the money goes to the house, before the bet even happens. To put it into numbers, if 10% of the betting total is gone up front, you don't need to be right 51% of the time to make money, you need to be right 56.7% of the time.

And the more you bet, the more unlikely that is.

Then there is the fact that human behavior gets in the way and makes us more.likely to make mistakes, but that's a whole other argument

Don't forget the lovely combination of drinking, pro franchise "love", and the fact you bet on your ever-present phone.

It's unlike any gambling situation in history.

[Kipper_3434]

This stuff is all so scummy, and the main reason I don't want to watch most of the regular season games anymore. Everyone knows people who lose hundreds to thousands a month on this ####, yet it's rammed down everyone's throat at every turn. Major failure to make online gambling both available and heavily promoted. Just another wealth siphoning industry that contributes nothing to the economy in return.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

You're confusing issues here. I understand that odds are based on flows, not on expected outcomes. What I am saying is the spread between the two sides of a bet is really wide (what we call the bid/ask spread in finance). The wide spread means a LOT of the money goes to the house, before the bet even happens. To put it into numbers, if 10% of the betting total is gone up front, you don't need to be right 51% of the time to make money, you need to be right 56.7% of the time.

And the more you bet, the more unlikely that is.

Then there is the fact that human behavior gets in the way and makes us more.likely to make mistakes, but that's a whole other argument

It’s called Vig - I addressed it in my post . The only thing funnier then someone not knowing what it’s called explaining how Vig and odds work is people thanking it!

The more you bet isn’t the more unlikely it is - this is where you are confused .

This isn’t a dice or card game - it isn’t Mathematical odds over time on events that are guaranteed to happen over the long run

There are a lot of people who can consistently beat the house . The house in sports betting is very flawed

And in some instances it is flawed on purpose . The books actually don’t care that some people can win consistently because they are offsetting their risk especially against public teams

This doesn’t mean the average casual better will win money . Most won’t . Most also don’t care if they lose $100 a month because it is fun

People can get in huge problem gambling , but sports gambling is a skill based game , and skilled people can and do beat the system .

Unless you play parlays . Then you are toast !

[SutterBrother]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

It’s called Vig - I addressed it in my post . The only thing funnier then someone not knowing what it’s called explaining how Vig and odds work is people thanking it!

The more you bet isn’t the more unlikely it is - this is where you are confused .

This isn’t a dice or card game - it isn’t Mathematical odds over time on events that are guaranteed to happen over the long run

There are a lot of people who can consistently beat the house . The house in sports betting is very flawed

And in some instances it is flawed on purpose . The books actually don’t care that some people can win consistently because they are offsetting their risk especially against public teams

This doesn’t mean the average casual better will win money . Most won’t . Most also don’t care if they lose $100 a month because it is fun

People can get in huge problem gambling , but sports gambling is a skill based game , and skilled people can and do beat the system .

Unless you play parlays . Then you are toast !

The societal ill isn't based on the handful of people who know how to manipulate the system successfully.

It's that it takes the last $20 out of the pocket of a guy who is addicted, and so instead of food going to his kids, it goes to Bet 365.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by SutterBrother

The societal ill isn't based on the handful of people who know how to manipulate the system successfully.

It's that it takes the last $20 out of the pocket of a guy who is addicted, and so instead of food going to his kids, it goes to Bet 365.

People can spend money on whatever makes them happy . I’m not here to police people’s choices .

At least you CAN win at sports betting over the long run vs VLTs is my point .

[Enoch Root]

Okay, so you know what it is and you know what it's called, but you don't seem to grasp its impact.

If you bet once, you miight win or you might lose. But if you bet 100 times, you are down before you start. It's straightforward and it's just math. The more you bet, the more.the math guarantees you will lose. Can a few people win? Yes. But that changes nothing. For all the average Joes out there, the math is not their friend

[Rhett44]

I know a few people whose lives have been destroyed by gambling. This is really bad to run ads and get people hooked at a young age.

I know someone who was addicted and quit, said quitting gambling was almost as hard as heroin , he did both. The brain releases dopamine when you gamble, and it reinforces the addictive behavior.

I am strongly opposed to sports betting ads. Maybe it is an extreme example, but when he said that it really opened my eyes to how bad this could get in a few years.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Gambling addictions are also one of the underlying addictions that lead to suicide particularly among men

[cam_calderon]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

People can spend money on whatever makes them happy . I’m not here to police people’s choices .

At least you CAN win at sports betting over the long run vs VLTs is my point .

It's a distinction without a difference. I think at this point sports betting has become so insidious that it really shouldn't be allowed.

[cam_calderon]

Originally Posted by Rhett44

I know a few people whose lives have been destroyed by gambling. This is really bad to run ads and get people hooked at a young age.

I know someone who was addicted and quit, said quitting gambling was almost as hard as heroin , he did both. The brain releases dopamine when you gamble, and it reinforces the addictive behavior.

I am strongly opposed to sports betting ads. Maybe it is an extreme example, but when he said that it really opened my eyes to how bad this could get in a few years.

Not sports betting, but still gambling: a case of suicide in a suburb 40 minutes from me. It can destroy lives pretty quickly and easily.

[Jay Random]

FWIW, I once worked for a very short time as a blackjack dealer, because I needed the work and it was easy to qualify for the job. I couldn't hack it; among other things, I hated seeing what I was helping gambling addicts do to themselves.

Gambling apps on mobile phones are like a vacuum cleaner in your pocket, with the hose connected directly to your wallet. No, thank you!

[Rhett44]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

FWIW, I once worked for a very short time as a blackjack dealer, because I needed the work and it was easy to qualify for the job. I couldn't hack it; among other things, I hated seeing what I was helping gambling addicts do to themselves.

Gambling apps on mobile phones are like a vacuum cleaner in your pocket, with the hose connected directly to your wallet. No, thank you!

It is terrible, I can't believe that it has become so normalized. Unfortunately, many people are going to destroy their lives because of this.

Any time I see ads on Sportsnet for it, or TSN for football bets or on YouTube advertising sports betting it makes me very angry.

[curves2000]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

It’s called Vig - I addressed it in my post . The only thing funnier then someone not knowing what it’s called explaining how Vig and odds work is people thanking it!

The more you bet isn’t the more unlikely it is - this is where you are confused .

This isn’t a dice or card game - it isn’t Mathematical odds over time on events that are guaranteed to happen over the long run

There are a lot of people who can consistently beat the house . The house in sports betting is very flawed

And in some instances it is flawed on purpose . The books actually don’t care that some people can win consistently because they are offsetting their risk especially against public teams

This doesn’t mean the average casual better will win money . Most won’t . Most also don’t care if they lose $100 a month because it is fun

People can get in huge problem gambling , but sports gambling is a skill based game , and skilled people can and do beat the system .

Unless you play parlays . Then you are toast !

This is partially true and was more the case when a lot of sports betting happened with local bookies and official Vegas lines. If there was an inefficient line or the bookies thought something was off, they could keep additional action to pump profits if need be. They would offset action to reduce their risk but as you said, hypothetically if you have a balanced book, you would have a very low risk for the week and just keep the vig for yourself.

What is happening now and has happened for a long time with the electronic books and websites is totally different. There is no gambling privacy anymore, these books know who you are, where you are located, have more information on you than most people. People uploading ID's to their sites, bank information and more. I shake my head when I hear stories from friends of mine who used to bet with me through local bookies who now have bets canceled, accounts shut down, difficulty getting paid. A lot of the credits and tokens are not redeemable for cash, people's impulses almost always force them to run with it and it's non stop deposits. Rarely are people cashing actual dollars out. Bookies settled up weekly in cash, Sports Select tickets had inefficient lines with information from the night before and couldn't really move the line quickly and you could bet with no ID. The AB Government virtually paid out 100% of the time

The amount of people who are consistently making money in sports gambling is extremely small these days, the amount of advantages that I have highlighted have only sharpened the advantage for the books. This why they have grown to astronomical levels, have massive backing and are financially able to advertise and offer "free credits" like they are handing out candy. They aren't doing all this for their even book and a 10% vig gross profit minus expenses.

They know their clientele is male, often thinks their level of sports knowledge is vastly superior in multiple leagues, spend an insane amount of time on their phones and just doesn't announce their losses to friends and family.