Yeah it's a joke really. No credible oddsmaker has the Flames at the top, at best around 7th or 8th favorite which seems right to me.
These kinds of rankings don't reflect true odds or where pros are putting their money. It's about generating attention.
Yes, attention plays into it, but a lot of these rankings that have the Flames at the top are projections based on analytical formulae. These are statistical models attempting to factor in enough variables on the basis of what's on paper in order to predict how the season will go. On paper, the Flames are easily a top-five or even a top-three team.
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Dealing with Everything from Dead Sea Scrolls to Red C Trolls
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Originally Posted by woob
"...harem warfare? like all your wives dressup and go paintballing?"
Yes, attention plays into it, but a lot of these rankings that have the Flames at the top are projections based on analytical formulae. These are statistical models attempting to factor in enough variables on the basis of what's on paper in order to predict how the season will go. On paper, the Flames are easily a top-five or even a top-three team.
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If you want a real analytical prediction, or any other kind of meaningful prediction, follow the money IMO.
I have no idea how this season will play out but calling Flames a top 3 team is likely premature. If they really were, people who make a living on this stuff would be speaking with their money.
If you want a real analytical prediction, or any other kind of meaningful prediction, follow the money IMO.
I have heard this before, but too often the money line is skewed by over enthusiastic fans. The Oilers almost always get exceedingly high odds because they have a lot of fans who are also pretty dumb.
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Originally Posted by woob
"...harem warfare? like all your wives dressup and go paintballing?"
Flames are MoneyPuck's favourites to win the cup, ahead of the Avs. Wild. And a bit crazy, I think
I think the Flames may be harder team to beat in the playoffs with these changes but I see a team that will probably not have as good a regular season. Last night's game meant nothing but it did show that it's going to take some time to get to the point where all lines are rolling and the powerplay going. Gaudreau was the offensive driver of this team and it's going to take some time to adjust. Goal scoring is not likely to come as easy for this edition but as long as they remain one of the stingier teams in the league it shouldn't be a big issue that keeps them out of the running for opening the playoffs on home ice.
If you want a real analytical prediction, or any other kind of meaningful prediction, follow the money IMO.
I have no idea how this season will play out but calling Flames a top 3 team is likely premature. If they really were, people who make a living on this stuff would be speaking with their money.
Follow the money is a trap too though as the most populous rabid fan bases bet more so they have to have lesser odds to offset the cash stacking up.
If as a result you use the odds as the ranking of teams most likely to win it's not right either.
I have heard this before, but too often the money line is skewed by over enthusiastic fans. The Oilers almost always get exceedingly high odds because they have a lot of fans who are also pretty dumb.
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The MacGregor vs Mayweather odds went from having Mayweather at 25:1 when they opened, all the way down to 4:1 by fight time because drunk irishmen were betting ludicrous amounts of money on MacGregor.
I think the Flames may be harder team to beat in the playoffs with these changes but I see a team that will probably not have as good a regular season. Last night's game meant nothing but it did show that it's going to take some time to get to the point where all lines are rolling and the powerplay going. Gaudreau was the offensive driver of this team and it's going to take some time to adjust. Goal scoring is not likely to come as easy for this edition but as long as they remain one of the stingier teams in the league it shouldn't be a big issue that keeps them out of the running for opening the playoffs on home ice.
Yeah it's a concern for sure.
But then it was a huge concern last year too. Honestly if you told me the "all the eggs in one basket" would create a super line that ran the NHL over until the playoffs I'd find it hard to believe.
Was worried about the bigger less transitional D
Was worried about not having enough impact forwards.
And they filled the net.
They could be due for a correction though, agreed.
^
Yeah, I think there is no question that there will be a correction in the team's offensive numbers this year, but I am not particularly worried about it. The Flames were +85 last season!
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Dealing with Everything from Dead Sea Scrolls to Red C Trolls
Quote:
Originally Posted by woob
"...harem warfare? like all your wives dressup and go paintballing?"
But then it was a huge concern last year too. Honestly if you told me the "all the eggs in one basket" would create a super line that ran the NHL over until the playoffs I'd find it hard to believe.
Was worried about the bigger less transitional D
Was worried about not having enough impact forwards.
And they filled the net.
They could be due for a correction though, agreed.
I think the NHL as a whole is in for a correction, it seems like a one-off season. The Panthers scored what 350 goals good luck doing that again.
Scoring was a huge question mark going into the season last year, I think its less of a concern this year, we have enough goals in the lineup they just need time to build that chemistry and get going.
I have heard this before, but too often the money line is skewed by over enthusiastic fans. The Oilers almost always get exceedingly high odds because they have a lot of fans who are also pretty dumb.
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Originally Posted by Bingo
Follow the money is a trap too though as the most populous rabid fan bases bet more so they have to have lesser odds to offset the cash stacking up.
If as a result you use the odds as the ranking of teams most likely to win it's not right either.
That gets said a lot but I don't think Edmonton hockey fans are moving betting lines. Retail bettors don't impact these as much as people think they do IMO.
If these models are so sophisticated, it's a great arbitrage opportunity to put money on a team like the Flames at +1800 or something like it. But they're not that sophisticated IMO so people aren't putting actual money behind it.
The Oilers get attention of oddsmakers because over time, superstar talent seem to win championships in sports.
So the guy who predicted the Jets were going to win the Cup last year, only to watch them miss the playoffs, has put out a list of new predictions again this year?
That, in and of itself, is a bold move.
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So the guy who predicted the Jets were going to win the Cup last year, only to watch them miss the playoffs, has put out a list of new predictions again this year?
That, in and of itself, is a bold move.
Well the title of the story is "32 Bold Predictions". He explained on the radio that it's easy to pick say the Lightning or Avalanche to win the cup but these are going out on a limb picks. He fully admitted the Jets pick blew up in his face.
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^
Yeah, I think there is no question that there will be a correction in the team's offensive numbers this year, but I am not particularly worried about it. The Flames were +85 last season!
And Dom's model had them at 18th going into last season.
The models are lagging indicators. I really doubt the Flames finish +85 this season as a team needs everything to go right for that to happen and everything went right last year for them.
It's hard for me to imagine the Flames not taking a step back after that.
And promptly fell apart in the first round, renewing an ugly tradition. Personally I think these rankings are nuts, the Flames completely gutted and refilled their core, there's going to be a long adjustment period IMO. They may end up a good team after everyone has settled in, but to say they're better than Colorado or Tampa is ridiculous
While true and not taking away from the "fun" tradition of losing in the first round, if I recall correctly, the injury trouble that team had at the end of the season was something else.
Just an update on the original Athletic article. They questioned the beat writers for each team asking what they thought of the projections. Almost all of the beat writers in the top 10 agreed with the projections although the Bruins beat writer was tepid but there was one that clearly disagreed. Any guesses?
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Too low. The Oilers are returning almost the entire roster that finished last season with 104 points and reached the Western Conference final. Jack Campbell and Stuart Skinner should provide more consistent goaltending than the tandem of Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen did. And young players like Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod, Kailer Yamamoto, Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg are on the rise. Edmonton should be pushing for a Pacific Division title. — Daniel Nugent-Bowman
