Noah Hanifin

[Jore]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I don't think he ever wins a Norris, but I guess "elite" is more of a subjective term.

Hanifin over the past two seasons vs all regular defensemen is

13th in CF%
10th in xGF%
18th in xGF60
24th in xGA60

With 32 teams and 7 defensemen per team, not sure how much more he's supposed to accomplish to get the term elite.

And yet he's 75th for Goals For% over the last 3 seasons. This places him somewhere between a number 3 and number 4 for effectiveness on average. On the Flames, of all defenders who have played over 1000 minutes (8), he's last in 5 on 5 GF%.

It's the same story in the playoffs. Of all defenders the Flames have had over the last 3 years who have played over 80 minutes (11), he's last in GF%.

I appreciate advanced shot metrics more than most but at a certain point over the course of more than 200 games the goals tell a story too.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jore

And yet he's 75th for Goals For% over the last 3 seasons. This places him somewhere between a number 3 and number 4 for effectiveness on average. On the Flames, of all defenders who have played over 1000 minutes (8), he's last in 5 on 5 GF%.

It's the same story in the playoffs. Of all defenders the Flames have had over the last 3 years who have played over 80 minutes (11), he's last in GF%.

I appreciate advanced shot metrics more than most but at a certain point over the course of more than 200 games the goals tell a story too.

Well no, there are 64 top-pairing defensemen, so 75th would put him high 3rd, not 'between a number 3 and a number 4" (ignoring that some Dmen are simply point producers without being top-pairing guys).

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Jore

And yet he's 75th for Goals For% over the last 3 seasons. This places him somewhere between a number 3 and number 4 for effectiveness on average. On the Flames, of all defenders who have played over 1000 minutes (8), he's last in 5 on 5 GF%.

It's the same story in the playoffs. Of all defenders the Flames have had over the last 3 years who have played over 80 minutes (11), he's last in GF%.

I appreciate advanced shot metrics more than most but at a certain point over the course of more than 200 games the goals tell a story too.

Goals% in the last two years he's 30th ... right back to a first pairing defensemen.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Well no, there are 64 top-pairing defensemen, so 75th would put him high 3rd, not 'between a number 3 and a number 4" (ignoring that some Dmen are simply point producers without being top-pairing guys).

That cuts both ways. There are guys like Tanev who is a clear #1-2, but not putting up many points. There's also multiple d-men capable of consistently putting up 30-40+ points who you definitely not want in a consistent top 4 role.

Overall, point production is a pretty bad way to judge a defenceman's overall abilities.

Also, using the last 3 years to judge Hanifin is going to skew things down, as the team, overall, was horrid in 2019/20 and 2020/21. D-men aren't going to get many assists, when the team isn't putting any pucks in the net.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Did I say that? I mean, you quoted my post, so it was right there for you to read. When you have to change what the other person said, in order to refute it, that's usually not the strongest argument.

I was responding to the argument that Hanifin 'is what he is'. He is the same age as Kylington, and has been better than Kylington everyone of the 7 years they have both been pros. So, IMO, arguing that Kylington still has upside, but Hanifin is what he is, is nothing more than a veiled shot at Hanifin, and is a completely empty argument.

You flat out said he's been playing for the last 7 years just not always in the NHL like Hanifin. Hanifin has way more NHL experience and is a very good player but Kylington has way less NHL expereince so even though they are the same age Kylington has more potential to grow IMO as he gains more NHL experience. This was my point earlier and you argued that you don't get it.

Kylington also hardly played anywhere in 20/21. Literally played 8 games.

Hanifin is the better player but Kylington has more room to grow and really how much more can Hanifin grow after 500+ games in the league already. Maybe more NHL playoff experience will help him but that probably doesn't make sense to you either.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

You flat out said he's been playing for the last 7 years just not always in the NHL like Hanifin. Hanifin has way more NHL experience and is a very good player but Kylington has way less NHL expereince so even though they are the same age Kylington has more potential to grow IMO as he gains more NHL experience. This was my point earlier and you argued that you don't get it.

Kylington also hardly played anywhere in 20/21. Literally played 8 games.

Hanifin is the better player but Kylington has more room to grow and really how much more can Hanifin grow after 500+ games in the league already. Maybe more NHL playoff experience will help him but that probably doesn't make sense to you either.

There are late bloomers but in general, when two guys are the same age and one has a lot more NHL games and the other has way more minor league, it's not exactly a factor in favour of the second guy. Lack of NHL games doesn't equal "room to grow", or else Dennis Gilbert has a huge ceiling.

[scobel]

I would be really curious how people rank the flames top 6 defenseman. I would assume most would have Weegar at #1 and Zadorov at #6 but what about in the middle? Maybe my assumptions are off. Thoughts? Mine would be

Weegar
Anderson
Tanev
Hanifin
Kylington
Zadorov

[Icon]

Originally Posted by scobel

I would be really curious how people rank the flames top 6 defenseman. I would assume most would have Weegar at #1 and Zadorov at #6 but what about in the middle? Maybe my assumptions are off. Thoughts? Mine would be

Weegar
Anderson
Tanev
Hanifin
Kylington
Zadorov

Probably depends how/what you're ranking. Overall contribution, yeah this seems about right, could make an argument to swap some up & down.

[Jore]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Well no, there are 64 top-pairing defensemen, so 75th would put him high 3rd, not 'between a number 3 and a number 4" (ignoring that some Dmen are simply point producers without being top-pairing guys).

Ok, he's closer to a 3rd D than a 4th D going solely by his goal impacts. He still has the worst results on the team during that span. What does that tell you?

Also, goal share is not the same as how many points a dman scores. Tanev is hardly a scorer but he has by far the best goal share on the Flames.

Originally Posted by Bingo

Goals% in the last two years he's 30th ... right back to a first pairing defensemen.

And on the Flames he's 4th again among regulars.

I guess it depends on how much you weigh team success vs. quality of competition. One could say he's been placed in a Sutter system that has seen good results for all defenders, with him still being one of the weaker defenders on the team. Alternately one could say that he's on the lower end because he's taking on harder competition so a guy like Gudbranson can have better performances. But even then we clearly see the difference in quality between him and Tanev, who takes on the hardest draws.

Here's where microstats may help in analysis, and the publicly available ones I've seen do not suggest that he's the one taking control of games or driving play. The microstats paint him as about average in every way among playoff team defenders.

I'd be a lot more bullish about Hanifin's low on-ice save % and his GA/60 during the playoffs if the microstats indicated a good process, or if he doesn't have a record of being weak in the playoffs before.

[NegativeSpace]

Originally Posted by Jore

Ok, he's closer to a 3rd D than a 4th D going solely by his goal impacts. He still has the worst results on the team during that span. What does that tell you?

Also, goal share is not the same as how many points a dman scores. Tanev is hardly a scorer but he has by far the best goal share on the Flames.



And on the Flames he's 4th again among regulars.

I guess it depends on how much you weigh team success vs. quality of competition. One could say he's been placed in a Sutter system that has seen good results for all defenders, with him still being one of the weaker defenders on the team. Alternately one could say that he's on the lower end because he's taking on harder competition so a guy like Gudbranson can have better performances. But even then we clearly see the difference in quality between him and Tanev, who takes on the hardest draws.

Here's where microstats may help in analysis, and the publicly available ones I've seen do not suggest that he's the one taking control of games or driving play. The microstats paint him as about average in every way among playoff team defenders.

I'd be a lot more bullish about Hanifin's low on-ice save % and his GA/60 during the playoffs if the microstats indicated a good process, or if he doesn't have a record of being weak in the playoffs before.

Not specifically picking on you but I'm more jumping off this statement because I have seen it elsewhere on the site. For years on this site (I hovered before I contributed) many looked at this team and said there are good players here but the subpar coaching is getting in the way. Now, we have superior coaching and some look at that as a reason to discount the players still with the Flames. Again, not looking specifically at your statement but just an impression.

I'm not sure it's fair to substract from a player's performance because they are receiving good coaching. Every team should aim to have good coaching and expect that a player thrive in that environment. When I look at some comments about Matthew or Johnny taking a step back because they aren't with Sutter any more - that doesn't speak to Matthew's or Johnny's talent or ability but is an indictment of Florida or Columbus as organizations to create an environment where those players can succeed.

If Hanifin has good results within this team environment, then he's capable of good results. He's not great at anything but he's decent at most. That has value to this team. Comparing him to Tanev, who is criminally underrated as a defensive-defenceman, for defensive results will always go for Tanev but ignores that Hanifin has other areas of the game that he does better than Tanev. We do need six quality defencemen on this team, particularly with how much star players play in this division.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

There are late bloomers but in general, when two guys are the same age and one has a lot more NHL games and the other has way more minor league, it's not exactly a factor in favour of the second guy. Lack of NHL games doesn't equal "room to grow", or else Dennis Gilbert has a huge ceiling.

Hanifin is nearly 26 been in the league for 7 years and had 517 career games. You could make a case Hanifin is in his prime now and probably as good as he will get. Gilbert might have more room to grow as well.

Kylington may never be as good as Hanifin is now but he has more room to grow as he gains experience

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Hanifin is nearly 26 been in the league for 7 years and had 517 career games. You could make a case Hanifin is in his prime now and probably as good as he will get. Gilbert might have more room to grow as well.

Kylington may never be as good as Hanifin is now but he has more room to grow as he gains experience

You could equally make a case that Kylington is in his prime and only just made it.

Anyway, Kylington has played significant games in the NHL since 2018. He just didn’t stick.

[midniteowl]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Hanifin is nearly 26 been in the league for 7 years and had 517 career games. You could make a case Hanifin is in his prime now and probably as good as he will get. Gilbert might have more room to grow as well.

Kylington may never be as good as Hanifin is now but he has more room to grow as he gains experience

I'm sorry, I just don't understand this statement. Kylington has more room to grow, but may never be as good as Hanifin now, so that room to grow means nothing, right? Do you mean he has more room to grow because he couldn't make it to NHL until recently? Hanifin might not be anything fancy but he was steady, on the other hand, Kylington is smooth skating and has speed, but I haven't seen anything special. He was steady when he was playing with Tanev, and after Tanev got injured and he has to be on his own, he was kinda messy. So may be room to grow means room to learn? If that's the case, so does Hanifin. Like others have mention, defenseman take longer to mature, play wise.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by midniteowl

I'm sorry, I just don't understand this statement. Kylington has more room to grow, but may never be as good as Hanifin now, so that room to grow means nothing, right? Do you mean he has more room to grow because he couldn't make it to NHL until recently? Hanifin might not be anything fancy but he was steady, on the other hand, Kylington is smooth skating and has speed, but I haven't seen anything special. He was steady when he was playing with Tanev, and after Tanev got injured and he has to be on his own, he was kinda messy. So may be room to grow means room to learn? If that's the case, so does Hanifin. Like others have mention, defenseman take longer to mature, play wise.

Lots of players take a bit longer to figure it out. Hanifin played right out of his draft. Kylington didn’t. Kylington is still learning the NHL game hanifin has been for years. Kylington has more room to grow due to lack of experience

Mangiapane is good? Did he play when he was18? Did he tear it up right away? Did he need more time in the minors than most former first round picks typically get. Kylington has more room to grow hanifin at this point is more likely at his peak. In his prime. Guys who play at 18 prime usually starts earlier in there career. Why? Experience in the best league at an earlier age

Quite often the opportunity is given to player drafted early in the draft too.

[timbit]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Lots of players take a bit longer to figure it out. Hanifin played right out of his draft. Kylington didn’t. Kylington is still learning the NHL game hanifin has been for years. Kylington has more room to grow due to lack of experience

Mangiapane is good? Did he play when he was18? Did he tear it up right away? Did he need more time in the minors than most former first round picks typically get. Kylington has more room to grow hanifin at this point is more likely at his peak. In his prime. Guys who play at 18 prime usually starts earlier in there career. Why? Experience in the best league at an earlier age

Quite often the opportunity is given to player drafted early in the draft too.

There is a reason for that.

They are projected to be better NHL players.

Of course, there are exceptions.

[Macho0978]

If Oilers fans got on here and said McDavid is the best player in the league but he’s only 25 and still getting better I’m sure lots would respond he’s probably not getting any better and he’s already in his prime. I’ve claimed that on here 2 years ago.

Same can be said for Hanifin. Maybe some upside left but he is what he is now

Kylington isn’t imo due to lack of NHL games. Similar to Mangiapane would finally gets his 35 goal season at age 25/26.

[dino7c]

People did say that about Hanifin last summer

and then he put up 48 points and +27 smashing previous numbers

[Bill Bumface]

I'm late to the party, but I still remember getting Bouwmeester and figuring that the Flames would have 3 of the 2014 team Canada Olympic team D men (Bouwmeester, Regehr, Phaneuf).

I thought the Flames would be amazing that year.

2nd last place in the conference. Only the Oilers found a way to suck more.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by dino7c

People did say that about Hanifin last summer

and then he put up 48 points and +27 smashing previous numbers

Not me as I have been pumping his tires since we got him. Imo this was his breakout year. Very good season but I doubt he has another huge jump like this.

Kylington had a big jump but I could see another big jump in production.

[Calgary '89]

Hanifin is a real toolsy player so I get why he gets compared to JayBo and others but IMO he's way more Brodie than Bouwmeester. In a perfect world Valimaki finally steps up and becomes an everyday NHLer and then you have great trade bait in Hanifin. Either way for the first time in decades the Flames seem stronger on the right side of the D core.