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Old 10-14-2021, 04:27 PM   #101
Bend it like Bourgeois
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Well in general NHL forwards peak earlier offensively than fans think they do.

I have a theory that sons of former NHLers peak even earlier for what I feel are obvious reasons.

Going to be tough for any Canadian team to compete with states that have no income tax. It's better than it was pre-cap.
Peak is a funny term though. I think wrong.

Kids join the league. Score like crazy. Then realize they don’t win that way and score less.

Are they declining? Hell no. Your team will win when the chosen ones score 30 less points but give up far fewer chances and goals.

That’s maturing. Not ‘peaking’.
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Old 10-14-2021, 04:29 PM   #102
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I meant both Tkachuks are more than just points

Matt may not hit as much but he brings other bull#### stuff….good or bad depends on your taste lol ��
Ah gotcha. Agreed. Brady hits unlike any top 6 guy I can remember. It’s staggering actually.
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Old 10-14-2021, 04:43 PM   #103
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Uhhhh no.

248 vs. 132 last season
303 vs. 122 the season before.
one also plays on a team that never has the puck...and hit stats vary from place to place. Dome is notoriously a hard place to get credit for a hit.
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Old 10-14-2021, 04:51 PM   #104
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This was predicted when the latest CBA was reached. It has taken a while to play out, but the NHL is moving to an NBA type salary structure where the stars bank big $$$ and everyone else fights over the scraps. I do wonder how the NHLPA feels about this evolution. The stars are greatly outnumbered, but they might have outsized clout.
I'm not sure why the nhlpa should care as long as they get their share of the pie. They can't control how GM's spend their money and fact is the stars deserve to make way more and paying them for what they are doing/will do makes way more sense then paying them for what they used to do.

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Old 10-14-2021, 04:53 PM   #105
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one also plays on a team that never has the puck...and hit stats vary from place to place. Dome is notoriously a hard place to get credit for a hit.
Unfortunately due to my location I catch a lot of these games. The guy is all over the ice clobbering people. He’s quick and mean.

The numbers aren’t a miscount.
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Old 10-14-2021, 04:53 PM   #106
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I'm not sure why the nhlpa should care as long as they get their share of the pie. They can't control how GM's spend their money and fact is the stars deserve to make way more and paying them for what they are doing/will do makes way more sense then paying them for what they used to do.

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Well, I don’t know about “should”, but I’d wager every player rep from every team is in his UFA years, not RFA.

ETA: Looked it up. Mostly they are. An exception - Brady is the player rep from Ottawa and Matt is the alternate rep for Calgary (Backlund is the rep).
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Old 10-14-2021, 05:18 PM   #107
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Unfortunately due to my location I catch a lot of these games. The guy is all over the ice clobbering people. He’s quick and mean.

The numbers aren’t a miscount.
Just saying, grain of salt when comparing head to head. Flames despite their poor record last year have really good possession numbers. Especially Tkachuk's line. Sens chase it a lot which is normal for a rebuilding team.

Matt can also throw a hit, ask Kassian
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Old 10-14-2021, 08:57 PM   #108
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Just saying, grain of salt when comparing head to head. Flames despite their poor record last year have really good possession numbers. Especially Tkachuk's line. Sens chase it a lot which is normal for a rebuilding team.



Matt can also throw a hit, ask Kassian
Brady's hits would take a big hit on a good team for sure. But wow, what a specimen at this point. He better hope for his longevity that Ottawa figures out how to start controlling games. That kind of play style will physically destroy him over time

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Old 10-14-2021, 09:01 PM   #109
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This will end up being a bad contract. He’s not as good as Matt, or as good as people think he is.
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Old 10-14-2021, 09:12 PM   #110
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This will end up being a bad contract. He’s not as good as Matt, or as good as people think he is.
Why? Even if Brady is what he is, he's probably only a million or so overpaid right now. 7 years is a long time. Salaries for good players keep going up. Not alot of risk here unless he breaks down under the stress of his play style

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Old 10-14-2021, 09:18 PM   #111
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Peak is a funny term though. I think wrong.

Kids join the league. Score like crazy. Then realize they don’t win that way and score less.

Are they declining? Hell no. Your team will win when the chosen ones score 30 less points but give up far fewer chances and goals.

That’s maturing. Not ‘peaking’.
100 point Crosby is better than 120 point Crosby. Also a lot less whiny.
Same goes for Ovechkin.

However, when McDavid gets past his offensive peak, the Oiler fans will have a lot less to be excited over. They have nothing in life going for them other than McDavid's point totals. And he may have already hit a career high in terms of point per game production.
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Old 10-14-2021, 09:36 PM   #112
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I would be willing to bet last season is McDavid's best point percentage of his career
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Old 10-15-2021, 07:04 AM   #113
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100 point Crosby is better than 120 point Crosby. Also a lot less whiny.
Same goes for Ovechkin.
That's pretty debatable.

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However, when McDavid gets past his offensive peak, the Oiler fans will have a lot less to be excited over. They have nothing in life going for them other than McDavid's point totals. And he may have already hit a career high in terms of point per game production.
We aren't talking about McDavid though. We are talking about the Sens signing a guy in his early 20s, scoring at a 50 point pace, to an $8 million dollar per year salary. If Tkachuk is already at his offensive peak this will be a dog of a contract.

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Old 10-15-2021, 07:35 AM   #114
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I’m interested to see how he plays now that he has a fat long term contract and will this give us any insight into how our Tkachuk will play if given the same type of contract. Do they just ramp it up in a contract year to get paid then back off or?
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Old 10-15-2021, 07:46 AM   #115
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Horrible contract. The sens beat the leafs and he didn't get a single point, kid was invisible!

I think the sens will surprise a lot of people this year and Brady will be a huge reason. They might even attract some decent UFA'S in the future.
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Old 10-15-2021, 09:13 AM   #116
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Originally Posted by Bend it like Bourgeois View Post
Peak is a funny term though. I think wrong.

Kids join the league. Score like crazy. Then realize they don’t win that way and score less.

Are they declining? Hell no. Your team will win when the chosen ones score 30 less points but give up far fewer chances and goals.

That’s maturing. Not ‘peaking’.
Thing is it's not like Brady can give up 30 points.

This isn't a 100 point forward becoming an 80 points forward due to him becoming more defensively responsible.

Brady is a 50 point per 82 GP forward to this point of his career, who has already been bad defensively.

If he has to drop to a 40 point player to become better defensively then this contract still won't age well at all.
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Old 10-15-2021, 09:19 AM   #117
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I would be willing to bet last season is McDavid's best point percentage of his career

Interesting, I think the expectation (By Oiler fans and media) is a three point per game average, and Gretzky becomes a forgotten scrub.
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Old 10-15-2021, 11:36 AM   #118
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I did this for McAvoy, so thought I might as well do it for Tkachuk too. Contracts signed for forwards with per year over 7.5 million and term greater than 5 years and the age they signed the contract at.

Brady Tkachuk 21 7 years 8.205 million per
Nick Suzuki 22 8 years 7.875 million per
Mika Zibanejad 29 8 years 8.5 million per
Aleksander Barkov 26 8 years 10 million per
Kirill Kaprizov 24 5 years 9 million per
Sean Couturier 29 8 years 7.75 million per
Andrei Svechnikov 21 8 years 7.75 million per
Brayden Point 26 8 years 9.5 million per
Alex Ovechkin 35 5 years 9.5 million per
Nicolas Backstrom 32 5 years 9.2 million per (2020)
Mikko Rantanen 22 6 years 9.25 million per (2019)
Mitchell Marner 22 6 years 10.903 million per (2019)
Sebastian Aho 21 5 years 8.46 million per (2019)
Artemi Panarin 27 7 years 11.642 million per (2019)
Matt Duchene 28 7 years 8 million per (2019)
Jeff Skinner 27 8 years 9 million per (2019)
Mark Stone 27 8 years 9.5 million per (2019)
Auston Matthews 21 5 years 11.64 million per (2019)
Tyler Seguin 27 8 years 9.85 million per (2018)
Blake Wheeler 32 5 years 8.25 million per (2018)
Nikita Kucherov 26 8 years 9.5 million per (2018)
John Tavares 27 7 years 11 million per (2018)
Logan Couture 30 8 years 8 million per (2018)
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Old 10-15-2021, 11:39 AM   #119
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There are other players signed to long term contracts around 7 million since 2018 including Kyle Connor, Nico Hischier, Anders Lee, Gabriel Landeskog, Kevin Hayes, JVR, Evander Kane and Clayton Keller.
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Old 10-15-2021, 11:48 AM   #120
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I think I'm a little surprised Brady Tkachuk got that contract from Ottawa but good for him and it doesn't seem like a big overpayment. He is a good player but Matthew here seems a bit better so I don't think it's a big stretch to say that Matthew will get $10M AAV on his next contract.

As has been mentioned, that's just the way the league is now and both Tkachuk players are right up there as amongst the best in the league.
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