[News] Treliving doesn't forsee moving forward with Ortio. Will circle back with Jooris.

[Frank MetaMusil]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

You could say that Ferland won the Flames the Quarterfinals against Vancouver in 2015. You'd probably be wrong, but you could say it.

If that's true, at least Sutter managed to contribute to one playoff series victory during his time exclusively as the GM of the Flames.

Sutter wouldn't have drafted Gaudreau, who was the catalyst for getting the team to the playoffs in the first place.

His contribution was zero.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Frank MetaMusil

Sutter wouldn't have drafted Gaudreau, who was the catalyst for getting the team to the playoffs in the first place.

His contribution was zero.

Oh, for sure. That's why I said you'd probably wrong in saying what I said. Just food for thought.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Locke

If you're not part of his plan going forward theres the door.

I like it.

If you arent part of the long-term solution, see ya!

Sometimes being a good GM is about the contracts you dont sign.

While I agree, it won't much matter if he doesn't also bring in players that move us up the standings. Let's hope the new signings are as good as the optimists hope and not as bad as the pessimists fear.

[Red Menace]

Don't forget he signed Giordano too.

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by thymebalm

^Not bad. Considering the Flames were a playoff team through those years and not a basement dweller, he managed to get an NHLer a year out of the mix, and 1 of them is a franchise core player.

It's not huge but he didn't strike out.

Picking 10/59 players over 8 drafts that ended up playing 100+ NHL games is a lot closer to striking out than not. 2 of those 8 drafts were also after non playoff seasons.

[activeStick]

The crazy thing is if you look beyond just guys who are still with the Flames none of their picks have gone on to do much of anything anywhere else either.

A single Feaster draft (2011), if we just look at guys who sort of have a role in the NHL have almost matched a span of 3 years for Sutter:

Baertschi, Granlund, Gaudreau (leaving Wotherspoon out as he hasn't secured anything)...

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by activeStick

The crazy thing is if you look beyond just guys who are still with the Flames none of their picks have gone on to do much of anything anywhere else either.

A single Feaster draft (2011), if we just look at guys who sort of have a role in the NHL have almost matched a span of 3 years for Sutter:

Baertschi, Granlund, Gaudreau (leaving Wotherspoon out as he hasn't secured anything)...

Brossoit too, though as a backup.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by Locke

One of the things that seems evident is that Treliving is brutal in his assessments of players.

Hes not keeping Glencross around because...y'know, Scoreface!

Hes not keeping Hudler around because...y'know...cool dogs bro!

Hes not keeping Russel around because...y'know...shot blocks!

Hes not keeping Ortio et al around just because.

If you're not part of his plan going forward theres the door.

I like it.

If you arent part of the long-term solution, see ya!

Sometimes being a good GM is about the contracts you dont sign.

I also like the message it sends too: mediocrity is not going to cut it. If you're in a contract year, you better blow the roof off all season long. Your contract demands had better not act like you've been blowing those roofs off your entire career too, instead of just one season.

[IgiTang]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

I also like the message it sends too: mediocrity is not going to cut it. If you're in a contract year, you better blow the roof off all season long. Your contract demands had better not act like you've been blowing those roofs off your entire career too, instead of just one season.

Exactly. If Jooris is the sacrificial lamb to drive home this message to the guys on the farm, I'm all for it.

I said in earlier in the thread that Jooris stopped doing what got him called up and secured him a full time spot. See ya later. Next.

[Flash Walken]

that's the thing about prudent management, you don't have to make anyone the sacrificial lamb, you just move ahead with your team building strategy.

[thymebalm]

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

Picking 10/59 players over 8 drafts that ended up playing 100+ NHL games is a lot closer to striking out than not. 2 of those 8 drafts were also after non playoff seasons.

That's a 17% success rate (100+ GP) and I'm reading league average is ~18%. (200+ GP).

In those non playoff years we were not drafting in the top 10. We were still a bubble club.

Again. No home run, but not a complete void in comparison to the averages.

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by thymebalm

That's a 17% success rate (100+ GP) and I'm reading league average is ~18%. (200+ GP).

In those non playoff years we were not drafting in the top 10. We were still a bubble club.

Again. No home run, but not a complete void in comparison to the averages.

If you want to compare it to the league average, let's count how many of those 59 picks have played 200+ games, as is used in the league average of 18%. By that measure, the success rate is 7/59, or ~12%. One of those 7 successes was taken in the first round after a non playoff season.

Let's look at the three years prior to and immediately after Sutter's reign. From 2000-2002, the success rate (again, using 200+ games as the benchmark) was 7/32, or ~22%. 2 of those successes over three years were taken in the first round after a non playoff season.

From 2011-2013, the success rate was 1/20, or 5%. That looks to change very quickly to 4/20, or 20%, as the prospects age to the point were pro experience is expected - 2 of those 20 have yet to turn pro. So the argument could be made that the rates should be 1/18 and 4/18, or 5.5%/22.2%, respectively. 2 of the successes over these three years were taken in the first round after a non playoff season.

So the non playoff drafts had more slam dunk picks than Sutter did while the team was making the playoffs, for sure. If you take out the slam dunks, you get the following:

Sutter Rate                 6/58          ~10%
League Average                            ~18% (no adjustment for high 1st round picks)
3 Years Pre-Sutter          5/30          ~17%
3 Years Post-Sutter         2/16          ~13%

The drafting prior to Sutter was more successful. The drafting post sutter has been marginally more successful, but is poised to trend upward as the prospects drafted in that time come of age. Even if you account for the "can't miss" high picks in drafts following non playoff seasons.

[PugnaciousIntern]

Back to the topic of these ex-RFAs... I just rewatched AC's Jooris highlight package (LINK) from his first season, and it's easy to see why he had so much success that year. Johnny was involved in a huge number of points, especially early on, and the team strategy of stretch passes really favoured his game.

It's unfortunately also easy to see why he didn't fair as well in his second season, when he no longer got regular doses of Gaudreau and stretch passes. I think last year is probably a more accurate representation of what he is able to bring to a team in the future. He's an easy player to love, but unfortunately he doesn't drive the game enough on his own, beyond intermittent bursts of energy, to earn a significant contract.

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by PugnaciousIntern

Back to the topic of these ex-RFAs... I just rewatched AC's Jooris highlight package (LINK) from his first season, and it's easy to see why he had so much success that year. Johnny was involved in a huge number of points, especially early on, and the team strategy of stretch passes really favoured his game.

It's unfortunately also easy to see why he didn't fair as well in his second season, when he no longer got regular doses of Gaudreau and stretch passes. I think last year is probably a more accurate representation of what he is able to bring to a team in the future. He's an easy player to love, but unfortunately he doesn't drive the game enough on his own, beyond intermittent bursts of energy, to earn a significant contract.

I think Jooris's wrist problems hampered his play also as did his tendency to end up in Hartley's dog house because of his penchant for taking dumb penalties.

[DeluxeMoustache]

People fall in love with the potential shown by streaks, but the professionals who build lengthy careers need to deliver consistently.

Ferland and Jooris are two guys who mean well but had good runs and outside of those runs settled in to a mean.