Is this a playoff team?

[Rick M.]

Probably not. I doubt they can work this hard for 82 games and get enough scoring consistently, but it's fun to watch. We may very well be a playoff team next year with Bennett, Poirier and the player we get in the first round in the 2015 draft.

[Street Pharmacist]

Some words from Elliott Friedman from last year I believe:

In last week's 30 Thoughts, there was one statistic a few people asked about, that just three of 32 NHL teams at least four points out of a playoff spot on Nov. 1 recovered to make the playoffs from 2005-06 to 2011-12 (Sources say no hockey was played by that date in 2012-13).

It is amazing to see how the "loser point" has changed the NHL game. The last season before its introduction was 1998-99. Back then, you got two points for a win, one for a tie and nothing if you lost in overtime. There was no shootout.

That year, the two worst teams in the NHL as we threw out our Halloween costumes were the Colorado Avalanche (2-6-1) and San Jose Sharks (1-6-2). They were four and five points out of the playoffs, respectively. The Avalanche were a powerhouse and recovered to finish second in the Western Conference and reach the conference final. Their first-round opponent? The Sharks.

That simply does not happen anymore. Since the shootout entered the NHL, we've never had a season in which two teams came from that far back to make it. And only one of the three comeback kings was more than four points out. That was Calgary. The Flames were seven points out in 2006-07, then went 40-22-9 to make it. The other survivors were the Buffalo Sabres (2010-11) and Boston Bruins (2011-12). The Sabres went 40-22-8; the Bruins, 45-22-4.

Generally, working yourself into a panic about what your team does in the first 10 games is a bad idea. But what really stands out about this particular season is how many teams are in danger of falling so far behind.

For example, the highest number of teams to fall at least four points out of the playoffs by Nov. 1 in our sample size is seven. That was 2006-07, the year Calgary made it. The lowest was two. This year, there are, potentially, seven such teams in the Eastern Conference (remember the crossovers). The West has three.

Anyway, that's the explanation. The optimists will say, "Well, it's happened each of the last two full seasons, so it can be done again." Just don't show the pessimists the numbers.

That means you can pretty much eliminate Oilers, Dallas, Arizona and Colorado from competition. That means 10 teams battling for 8 spots. I like those odds

[bubbsy]

i still think it's too early, but they are putting themselves in a position that even when some of the bounces and maybe inflated stats (save %, etc) come down, that they are still going to end up being far, FAR, better than many of us had predicted. Forget 12-15th in the conference, looks like 6-10 could be a real possibility, if the "coming back to earth" is around the 0.500 range, and not a total wheels coming off scenario.

[edslunch]

I don't think they will stay in the hunt.

Positives:

• overall record and point% is good
• road record is near the top
• goal differential is good
• PP is decent

Negatives

• Shots for are second last
• Shots against are almost 3 per game higher
• home record is poor
• PK blows

Right now goaltending is making the difference

[ForeverFlameFan]

I like our chances. Keep in mind we've been a team that did not win very many games in the beginning of the season and had to rely on a 2nd half surge to obtain a large chunk of our points. Also, we are usually a team that plays well at the Saddledome, but that's not the case thus far. We are tied with the Anaheim Ducks with the best road record (6-2).

[Robbob]

Props for them picking up these points now before the elite teams kick it up another gear. They play 10 more games before American Thanksgiving. Teams are so close right now you need those 10 games to get a better idea of were things stand in the conference. I think most will agree that Chicago and Minny will bump Winnipeg and Nashville out into a wild card spot. The Way I see it is that the Flames are competing with the Canucks, Nashville, Winnipeg, Dallas, Colorado for the final two spots (I think Ana, LA, SJ, CHI, STL, MIN are pretty much shoe ins). I still think COL is in the mix.

[united]

Originally Posted by terminator

What his score-adjusted possession?

Originally Posted by _Q_

What the hell is score adjusted possession and PDO? And why does it seem like a new advanced stat is invented every season?

Normally when you hear possession talked about in terms of a team's (dumb names like corsi, fenwick) they are talking about "close" possession which only includes even-strength data when the score is within one goal in the first and second periods and the game is tied in the third period. However limiting the data to those situations eliminates data from about 30 minutes of play from each game on average. The reason behind using "close" was a team with a lead in the third period goes into a defensive shell which skews the possession metrics, and even more if their lead is two or more goals.

Score-adjusted possession accounts for all even-strength play regardless of score which in turn increases the data available for each game from about 30 minutes to about 43 minutes a game on average (discounts special teams). Sample size is crucial and with how early into the season we are you want as much data as possible. Score-adjusted is significantly more accurate this early in the season than "close" possession, but the difference between them is minimal over a large sample size, though score-adjusted is still slightly better. Score-adjusted has been around since 2011-12.

PDO (another poor name) is the sum of each team's save percentage and shooting percentage at even-strength. If you take the league-wide save percentage and add the league-wide shooting percentage in a season you get 1.000 - make sense. However each team's own varies each season. Over the long run (several seasons) all teams will regress to 1.000, but in the short term teams can come out higher or lower - often referred to as hot streaks or cold streaks. However, many people incorrectly state all teams in a single season will regress to 1.000 which isn't true: good teams have better-than-average goaltending and players so their PDO is expected to exceed 1.000 but not by a large amount. Likewise, poor teams should fall below 1.000 but not by much. PDO has been around since 2008-09 I believe.

So basically a team with low possession but high PDO is likely to crash down and a team with high possession but low PDO is likely to improve. Perhaps the most common example is the cup-winning 2011-12 Kings: They were 3rd in possession but 28th in PDO and, due all season for a rebound, exploded in the playoffs despite their 8th-place finish.

As you can gather, these stats aren't "advanced" at all. It's basic logic and math, but for whatever reason the early proponents labelled them as advanced.

[Grimbl420]

I don't even want to talk about this, way to early.

[RyZ]

I think the wheels will fall off and we end up in the bottom 3rd of the league after 82 games, but ask me again after Christmas time. If the team is still above .500 and still competing with the same energy and character I will probably be easily convinced to change my tune.

I'm loving the ride while it lasts though.

[_Q_]

Oh man are these advanced stats starting to ever get convoluted. At what point do they start to become worthless? Also at what point do they simply become cherry picking in order to prove a point?

Ten years ago it was "your team won't make the playoffs, because they have crap players that can't score or keep the puck out of the net and garbage coaching."

Now it's turned into "your team won't make the playoffs because corsi, Fenwick, PDO, 5v5, possession percentages show that regression to the mean will occur"

It's bloody awful.

[FlameZilla]

I selected "Who cares/Rebuild" but that's not exactly true... I am really happy with the rebuild & feel the playoffs are wishful thinking, but I do actually care. Playoffs should always be the goal at the very least.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

I'd say it's too early to tell, but realistically I think it's going to come down to injuries.

Injuries on defense to be precise. The Flames have shown enough Forward depth already with the current injury situation (keep in mind Poirier is also making a case just 1 game back from injury). However, after Wotherspoon there's no D-man I would trust with bottom 6 duties.

Brodano healthy for 82 games. That's a ticket to the playoffs, even if their play drops off a bit.

[_Q_]

Come on guys. I know we like to all get caught up with playing the 4 or 5 elite teams in the league, but the question isn't if we belong with those teams. Yeah we might lose to Anaheim, LA or Chicago more often than not, but that doesn't matter if our goal is just to make the playoffs.

As of right now, to get to 100 points, we need to go something like 36-32 the rest of the way. That's only a 0.529 record from here on out. If we continue rolling in November and beat the teams that we are supposed to beat, we can conceivably make the playoffs while playing bellow 500 hockey for the rest of the season.

A hot start like we've had makes a world of difference in the hunt for the playoffs.

[Robbob]

The big picture, and one of the reason the team is where it is, is due to the progression of the players. That is what excites me the most about the current season. At the end of the day if, and that is a big if, the Flames make the playoff it is because the players we have are the real deal.

[Stormchaser]

Yesterday's game convinced me that this years Flames will compete every game. They don't take a night off and I think they keep getting better. Its not just goaltending this year...its Gio, Brodie and Wideman. As well, Jooris, Gaudreau, and Grandlund are each ready for full time duty and are not only contributing nicely but are not defensive liabilities.

All that to say that even if we regress in an area we still have strength in others. As well...even with our centers completely decimated I haven't missed them at all!

Oilers = no good

[Day Tripper]

It's only 14 games...I remember a few years ago when the Oilers were 9-3-2 after 14 games and ended up picking 1st overall.

[MolsonInBothHands]

Too early to say just yet. I think we take a hit when we encounter the Pacific division some more. The will likely knock the Flames back into wildcard / bubble territory.

Just not that optimistic about having winning records against Dallas, SJ, Anaheim, and LA, let alone Chicago and St. Louis.

[trublmaker]

we are playing over our heads, we can't sustain this or that, other teams will get better and we'll get worse, blah blah blah. Right now we're kickin ass, playing like contenders and the rest of the league and media are noticing. we can "sustain" anything we want, look out playoffs here we come. Go Flames Go

[skudr248]

it's only a matter of time... till this picture appears..

[ah123]

The Flames have only played two elite teams in the West so far (Chicago and St Louis) and the difference showed, regardless of the results. I fully expect this team to fall in the standings once they start tangling with the teams in the West.