Extending Giordano... how much?

[boddygill]

I think Gio could play well late in his career, I see him as very similar to a player like Scott Neidermyer that played well into his late 30's. I say resign him to a long term deal, try to keep that AAV down as this will be the time the Flames should be planning to compete at an elite level and don't want to be cap crunched.

[codynw]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

The Brooks Orpik deal at 5x5.5 set the market for middling physical defensive defenseman. How much more valuable is Gio? He's got leadership, offense, defense and durability over Orpik.

I'll reiterate: It starts with at least a 7, maybe an 8

I'll agree that it starts with $7-8M on a shorter deal, but if it's a long term contract I think it's gotta be a front loaded deal with a cap hit around $6M.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by codynw

I'll agree that it starts with $7-8M on a shorter deal, but if it's a long term contract I think it's gotta be a front loaded deal with a cap hit around $6M.

$0.5M/yr more on a 5 year? No way

$0.5M/yr more on a 7 year? Sure, but I didn't see the flames committing to a 40 year old Gio when they may have more cap concerns in 7 years than they do for the next 4-5

To me, flames want short term, money less important. For Gio, total dollars still important so short term and big money IMO

[Flash Walken]

There's lots of hyperbole going around here right now about Giordano.

He had his best season in terms of points last season with 47 in 64, a very respectable number, but still a career high for him. He's a physical, solid defensively, hard working defender who puts up 30-45 points and maybe flirts with 50 points in his best years.

The TOP level defenders in the NHL, the guys who make the big time dollars, are 50+ plus defensemen. Pietrangelo, Keith, Weber, Karlsson, Subban etc do all the things Giordano does and they score more points.

Giordano's direct comparable is probably Brent Seabrook. A solid, physical, defensively strong defender who can eat minutes and flirts with 40-45 points, but who is a second tier player to Duncan Keith on the same pairing.

Except, the one thing none of these guys have in common with Giordano is that they are all younger than him and their contracts were signed when they were forfeiting UFA years. At 32 years old, you are no longer paying for potential, you are paying for the here and now and the uncertain but inevitable decline in production and minutes.

22 year old Erik Karlsson was a point per game player when he signed at 6.5. You pay Giordano 7 upfront for a shorter term or you pay him more in line with the Orpik, Girardi, Seabrooks of the world.

8 million dollars for a 40 point defender is ludicrous. 6 year term for a 32 year old defender is ludicrous. That's Zdeno Chara territory, and Gio's no Chara.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by codynw

I'll agree that it starts with $7-8M on a shorter deal, but if it's a long term contract I think it's gotta be a front loaded deal with a cap hit around $6M.

I hope to see it shorter rather then front loaded, as we'll likely have some bigger contracts in the future. Being at the salary floor, it really makes no sense to front load a long term contract....but I'm not sure Gio will want a 6-8 year deal.

I also think the $$ amount will be closer to $9M then $7-8M..... he's a top guy. I think on a shorter contract (3-4 years) he'll have to be closer to market value, i.e. $27M/3 years or $34M/4 years.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

There's lots of hyperbole going around here right now about Giordano.

He had his best season in terms of points last season with 47 in 64, a very respectable number, but still a career high for him. He's a physical, solid defensively, hard working defender who puts up 30-45 points and maybe flirts with 50 points in his best years.

The TOP level defenders in the NHL, the guys who make the big time dollars, are 50+ plus defensemen. Pietrangelo, Keith, Weber, Karlsson, Subban etc do all the things Giordano does and they score more points.

Giordano's direct comparable is probably Brent Seabrook. A solid, physical, defensively strong defender who can eat minutes and flirts with 40-45 points, but who is a second tier player to Duncan Keith on the same pairing.

Except, the one thing none of these guys have in common with Giordano is that they are all younger than him and their contracts were signed when they were forfeiting UFA years. At 32 years old, you are no longer paying for potential, you are paying for the here and now and the uncertain but inevitable decline in production and minutes.

22 year old Erik Karlsson was a point per game player when he signed at 6.5. You pay Giordano 7 upfront for a shorter term or you pay him more in line with the Orpik, Girardi, Seabrooks of the world.

8 million dollars for a 40 point defender is ludicrous. 6 year term for a 32 year old defender is ludicrous. That's Zdeno Chara territory, and Gio's no Chara.

If Chara was in his prime now becoming a UFA, he gets $10M. The difference between UFA and RFA years is not whether you're paying for potential or not. It's about how many teams can bid for your services. Gio is a much, much, much, much more valuable commodity than Orpik. By a lot.

Seabrook gets 40 points playing 24 minutes a night with Toews, Kane, Sharp, and Kieth among others. Gio got 47 in 64 playing with much worse players in way tougher minutes. You won't find many people who think they're great comparables. Seabrook isn't a captain and doesn't mean as much to the Hawks as Gio does to the flames. Also Seabrook signed his contract in a cap that was in the $50Ms. Cap inflation alone puts an identical contact at almost $7M.

Karlsson signed as an RFA. Not comparable.

Again, if Orpik who is worse defensively and offensively, gets 5.5, you expect that to be a comparable? That is hyperbole

[Plett25]

Looking at cap hits around the league, Gio should be in the $7 million range. So I'd do 3 year, $27 million, $9 million AAV

Good term for the Flames, might be a $2 million overpayment but I'd just consider half of that as back pay and the other half as buying the shorter term. And for those 3 years, the Flames will have lots of players on entry level deals.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Plett25

Looking at cap hits around the league, Gio should be in the $7 million range. So I'd do 3 year, $27 million, $9 million AAV

Good term for the Flames, might be a $2 million overpayment but I'd just consider half of that as back pay and the other half as buying the shorter term. And for those 3 years, the Flames will have lots of players on entry level deals.

No way Gio does a 3 year. Remember, most players never get a payday UFA window. This is Gio's. Each year given up is a year of guaranteed money given up

[jemjey]

Gio is better than Brent Seabrook.

[Flash Walken]

I feel like I"m taking crazy pills here.

There are THREE guys in the whole league who make 9 million, and 10 guys TOTAL, amongst all positions who make 8.

Giordano is NOT an 8 million dollar player, that's just nuts. Drew Doughty makes 7 and he's eight years younger than Giordano...and better.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I feel like I"m taking crazy pills here.

There are THREE guys in the whole league who make 9 million, and 10 guys TOTAL, amongst all positions who make 8.

Giordano is NOT an 8 million dollar player, that's just nuts. Drew Doughty makes 7 and he's eight years younger than Giordano...and better.

The only other UFA defensemen of note at the end of this year are Mike Green and Johnny Boychuk. Unless all the teams are stock full of top pairing d, there will be significant bidding and it will start at 7. We're both speculating and could be wrong, but I feel like UFA contacts are dictated by market, and the market for Gio will be super hot.

Market predence gets set every time the cap goes up. It will be even higher next year

[Plett25]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

No way Gio does a 3 year. Remember, most players never get a payday UFA window. This is Gio's. Each year given up is a year of guaranteed money given up

Gio will absolutely do a 3 year deal, because there's a price on everything. For discussion purposes, let's assume that a contract acceptable to both Gio and the Flames would be $7.5 x 5 years = $37.5 million

Would he sign for $7.5 x 3 years = $22.5 million? Of course not.
Would he sign for $12.5 x 3 years = $37.5 million? Of course he would.

It is like the joke attributed to Churchill:

Churchill: "Madam, would you sleep with me for five million pounds?" Socialite: "My goodness, Mr. Churchill... Well, I suppose... we would have to discuss terms, of course... "
Churchill: "Would you sleep with me for five pounds?"
Socialite: "Mr. Churchill, what kind of woman do you think I am?!"
Churchill: "Madam, we've already established that. Now we are haggling about the price”

A 3 year term is absolutely possible, it all comes down to the price.

[codynw]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I feel like I"m taking crazy pills here.

There are THREE guys in the whole league who make 9 million, and 10 guys TOTAL, amongst all positions who make 8.

Giordano is NOT an 8 million dollar player, that's just nuts. Drew Doughty makes 7 and he's eight years younger than Giordano...and better.

Doughy was a RFA when he signed, vs Giordano being an UFA (more leverage for the player). And also, the cap was lower when Doughty signed. If Doughty was an UFA at the end of the year he'd get Toews money from someone.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I feel like I"m taking crazy pills here.

There are THREE guys in the whole league who make 9 million, and 10 guys TOTAL, amongst all positions who make 8.

Giordano is NOT an 8 million dollar player, that's just nuts. Drew Doughty makes 7 and he's eight years younger than Giordano...and better.

You're not comparing apples to apples here. Doughty's contract was signed when he was 21, the first four years of the deal covered years prior to his ability to become a UFA.

These next four years of his contract - when he could become have been a UFA are 7.1, 7.45, 7.6, 7.65. And it was signed four years ago so you've got inflation involved.


Giordano will get a higher contract from the Flames than Brodie when most logic would state Brodie is a more valuable commodity (younger, improving, will be in prime years for the entire contract). But Brodie is still an RFA when his contract expires, so he has basically no leverage since unless he gets an offer sheet, he has to sign here.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by codynw

Doughy was a RFA when he signed, vs Giordano being an UFA (more leverage for the player). And also, the cap was lower when Doughty signed. If Doughty was an UFA at the end of the year he'd get Toews money from someone.

That's the argument I'm making of paying for potential vs paying for the here and now.

You sign guys like Doughty, Subban, Brodin, etc to dollars and term because they aren't getting any cheaper; it's more costly to sign Doughty to a 1 year deal every year than it is to lock him up for term.

With Giordano, that is no longer the case. You are locking him up for what you think he'll contribute for the next 2-3 years, but in 4 years time, he's likely cheaper to sign than he is now, so why set yourself up to overpay in 4 years time when maybe you don't have to.

I'd sign Gio to almost whatever dollars he wants on a 2 or 3 year deal but I wouldn't entertain giving him 4 years, because I want to pay Brodie, Monahan etc their big dollars in 3 years so I maybe don't have to give them a bridge deal and end up in Subban territory.

[PeteMoss]

You can try to do that, but then you'll likely lose him.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

That's the argument I'm making of paying for potential vs paying for the here and now.

You sign guys like Doughty, Subban, Brodin, etc to dollars and term because they aren't getting any cheaper; it's more costly to sign Doughty to a 1 year deal every year than it is to lock him up for term.

With Giordano, that is no longer the case. You are locking him up for what you think he'll contribute for the next 2-3 years, but in 4 years time, he's likely cheaper to sign than he is now, so why set yourself up to overpay in 4 years time when maybe you don't have to.

I'd sign Gio to almost whatever dollars he wants on a 2 or 3 year deal but I wouldn't entertain giving him 4 years, because I want to pay Brodie, Monahan etc their big dollars in 3 years so I maybe don't have to give them a bridge deal and end up in Subban territory.

That's a great strategy, but unless you're offering $10M a year (which they just can't) someone will offer 6 years and even at $10M
you can't match total guaranteed dollars. That's the trouble with UFA. Your strategy is irrelevant, the price is dictated by demand, not strategy or anything else. Demand will be very high for the only top pairing D available, who just happened to garner some Norris votes last year. You don't think the Oilers, Anaheim, Florida, Islanders, etc would offer at least 6 for 6 years (probably higher)? Remember that Orpik got 5.5 for 5 years ($27.5M in guaranteed money). Gio will want that at least.

However, how he plays this year will dictate a lot of how this unfolds.

You ALWAYS overpay for UFAs

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

That's a great strategy, but unless you're offering $10M a year (which they just can't) someone will offer 6 years and even at $10M
you can't match total guaranteed dollars. That's the trouble with UFA. Your strategy is irrelevant, the price is dictated by demand, not strategy or anything else. Demand will be very high for the only top pairing D available, who just happened to garner some Norris votes last year. You don't think the Oilers, Anaheim, Florida, Islanders, etc would offer at least 6 for 6 years (probably higher)? Remember that Orpik got 5.5 for 5 years ($27.5M in guaranteed money). Gio will want that at least.

However, how he plays this year will dictate a lot of how this unfolds.

You ALWAYS overpay for UFAs

Yep, you are probably right, comes down to what the player wants.

If it was a choice between signing Giordano to 6 million a year for 5-6 years or losing him...I'd be on the phone making calls.

If he's valuable enough to command a 5+ year deal over 6 million, he's valuable enough to really jumpstart this rebuild.

[LostCatalyst]

I'd do 5 years 35 million. Nice round number. We get our 5 years, Gio gets 7 million a year and there you go

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Yep, you are probably right, comes down to what the player wants.

If it was a choice between signing Giordano to 6 million a year for 5-6 years or losing him...I'd be on the phone making calls.

If he's valuable enough to command a 5+ year deal over 6 million, he's valuable enough to really jumpstart this rebuild.

Regardless of where he signs and for how much, he's more valuable here than anywhere else.
-As captain, he personifies what the club wants the identity of the Flames to be.
-Unless he seriously declines, he will be a valuable part of the defense and possibly offence for at least 5 more years.
-assuming the cap goes up, plus the cost of replacing what he brings even with a decline, the overpay will at most be a million or 2. Think of it like this: assuming with decline he's a second pairing leadership guy. That's worth 4-5 today and 5-6 with the salary inflation at least in 5 years. At 7 million, how much of an overpay is that?

At 6 years and 7 million, he's absolutely with it for the flames.


This is Gio's biggest chance for a payday. I don't see him wanting to try and hit paydirt in 3 years.