[Signing] Canucks sign Vrbata (2yrs, $5mil AAV, limited NTC)

[ripTDR]

Originally Posted by Mike F

So their plan is to sign veterans to bridge the gap until their mediocre prospects are ready to break into dribble into the NHL.

That sounds like the Flames of now

Edit: Benning's attempt to parlay the Ducks pick plus other assets into Sam Reinhart would have been a bold move toward a rebuild, but you don't get more than a participation ribbon for bold moves that fail.

I will just fix that one right up there, cause we can all see into the future so well

[Stay Golden]

Hate to admit it but this probably is one the best signings of the offseason.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Good signing by them actually. Really expected Vrbata to get term on his next contract, and if not I expected him to sign with a team closer to contending. Hate to say it, but shrewd acquisition here by the Canucks.

[19Yzerman19]

Originally Posted by PeteLFan

Lol Pacific is a bad division lol. Anaheim got lucky? Lol. Oh Canucks fans all 15 that remain you won't be making the playoffs

Anaheim did get lucky, in so far as they weren't as good a team as their record indicated, though part of it is just Boudreau magic and some elite finishing ability from their top players at this point. I would expect a more precipitous drop-off from the Avs than the Ducks. Still, ANA aren't on the same level as the Kings or even the Sharks. Still way better than Vancouver, obviously.

Anyway, this is an excellent signing by the Canucks in so far as Vrbata is actually worth $5M right now and probably will be next year, too. Might have even gone 3 on this, but there's very little risk here and plenty of potential reward. I think I'd rather have Vrbata playing for me than Grabovski and Bolland and definitely Iginla, and they didn't have to give as much to get him. Enough to get them into a wild card spot? Hard to say... a lot has to go right.

I note that they have 7.5M and need to re-sign UFA Santorelli and RFA's Vey, Kassian and Tanev. Should be do-able.

Sedin - Sedin - Vrbata
Burrows - Bonino - Kassian
Higgins - Matthias - Hansen
Vey - Santorelli - Dorsett
Jensen - Richardson

Hamhuis - Bieksa
Edler - Sbisa
Tanev - Sanguinetti
Stanton

Miller
Lack

Still terrible center depth but it's by no means a basement-dweller on paper. I dunno, this looks like a 7-11 team to me.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by 19Yzerman19

Anaheim did get lucky, in so far as they weren't as good a team as their record indicated, though part of it is just Boudreau magic and some elite finishing ability from their top players at this point. I would expect a more precipitous drop-off from the Avs than the Ducks. Still, ANA aren't on the same level as the Kings or even the Sharks. Still way better than Vancouver, obviously.

Anyway, this is an excellent signing by the Canucks in so far as Vrbata is actually worth $5M right now and probably will be next year, too. Might have even gone 3 on this, but there's very little risk here and plenty of potential reward. I think I'd rather have Vrbata playing for me than Grabovski and Bolland and definitely Iginla, and they didn't have to give as much to get him. Enough to get them into a wild card spot? Hard to say... a lot has to go right.

I note that they have 7.5M and need to re-sign UFA Santorelli and RFA's Vey, Kassian and Tanev. Should be do-able.

Sedin - Sedin - Vrbata
Burrows - Bonino - Kassian
Higgins - Matthias - Hansen
Vey - Santorelli - Dorsett
Jensen - Richardson

Hamhuis - Bieksa
Edler - Sbisa
Tanev - Sanguinetti
Stanton

Miller
Lack

Still terrible center depth but it's by no means a basement-dweller on paper. I dunno, this looks like a 7-11 team to me.

7-11 getting worse by every year exactly

[cowtown75]

I hate the Canucks so much....so much. I look at that team on paper and with an aging Sedin's etc and even the very good Vrbata signing, and even signing Miller- I see them actually finishing below the Flames this upcoming year. This team rides on the back of the Sedin's make no mistake about it- it's a crap shoot for them this next year. My gut tells me they will suck bad. Especially if Daniel gets injured.....again.

[irrevocable]

Originally Posted by cowtown75

I hate the Canucks so much....so much. I look at that team on paper and with an aging Sedin's etc and even the very good Vrbata signing, and even signing Miller- I see them actually finishing below the Flames this upcoming year. This team rides on the back of the Sedin's make no mistake about it- it's a crap shoot for them this next year. My gut tells me they will suck bad. Especially if Daniel gets injured.....again.

I think you've nailed it cowtown75. The Sedins aren't the same as they used to be.. they can no longer drive the offense all on their own. I don't think they'll see playoff light for a few seasons.

[driveway]

Originally Posted by GettinIggyWithIt

They haven't gotten worse necessarily but they haven't gotten much better and definitely not enough to be grouped with Anaheim, Dallas, Colorado and Minnesota. All those teams had good seasons and the worst of the bunch (Dallas) got much better this off-season. I think they are more likely grouped with Nashville and Arizona. How do you figure that Colorado will decline by adding Iginla, and improving their D? How exactly did you determine that Anaheim had the league best luck last year? Based on a stat about the team trending upwards consistently in shooting percentage over the last three years?

Anaheim's PDO (shooting percentage + save percentage) which is the best measurement we have for 'puckluck' was 103.4 last year, the highest in the NHL, Colorado's was 102.2 good for third best. From season-to-season this stat tends to correct towards 100.0. Also, Anaheim and Colorado had the league's two highest shooting percentages at 10.7 for Anaheim and 8.6 for Colorado, both of these are likely to correct downwards this season.

In Colorado, Semyon Varlamov had an outlier season in net with a .927 save percentage, a full .010 higher than his career average of .917. Before last season, his average was .912. The difference between a .927 and a .912 is allowing an additional 31 goals over a season, which would completely erase Colorado's goal differential from last year.

In Anaheim, Jonas Hiller had 29 of their wins, they don't have him anymore. Andersen and Gibson had phenomenal stats, but they only had 31 games between them. Andersen's stats look much more sustainable than Gibson's, but the sample size is very small. I will say this: if John Gibson posts a .954 save percentage over the entire 2014-15 season, Anaheim will win 60+ games.

Anaheim went 24-6-6 in one-goal-games last year. Over time, wins in one-goal-games trends towards .500, regression to the mean can be expected here as well.

Colorado went 27-4-7 in one-goal games. Again, regression is absolutely to be expected. Also, Colorado went 14-8 in overtime and shootouts, this is not a sustainable winning percentage over time.

Vancouver, on the other hand, had what looked to me to be a catastrophically bad season. They had a 7.1 shooting percentage which should correct upwards. Their PDO wasn't terrible, but at 99.6% could easily swing upwards.
They went 19-10-11 in one-goal games, a lucky swing upwards in this area would substantially improve their position in the league. As of a 2-1 victory over the St. Louis Blues on January 10th SportsClubStats.com had them at a 92.64% chance of making the playoffs. They rose as high as 94.59% on January 11th based on the play of other teams. The Rumble in Rogers was on the 18th of January, and then they fell off a cliff.

The Sedins missed 21 games combined, and both saw their PK time shoot massively upwards, while seeing their offensive zone starts fall substantially. They still managed to maintain high Corsi stats despite this. Tortorella was, I think, catastrophically bad in Vancouver and having anyone else behind the bench will be good for another couple of wins. Bonino and Vrbata are both 20-goal scorers, easily replacing Kessler's production. The Defence remains quite solid. All this points towards a reasonable expectation for improvement in Vancouver.

The big question in Vancouver is going to be Ryan Miller.

If they get Buffalo Ryan Miller, they're getting a slight upgrade on what Luongo was able to provide them over the last couple of seasons, which will positively effect their goal-differential, however, if they get the Ryan Miller who we saw in St. Louis it will be a drag on the team.

To my mind, the statistics are indicating that I should lower my expectations for Colorado and Anaheim while raising them for Vancouver, with the caveat that goaltending performances will play the biggest role in determining which teams rise and/or fall. If Varlamov and Andersen/Gibson keep their numbers from last year, my predictions for Colorado and Anaheim will be wrong. If Miller posts close to a .920 in Vancouver, they will improve, if it's more like the .903 he put up in St. Louis they will certainly suffer badly for that.

I fully expect Vancouver to be competing for a playoff spot next season, and I do not expect Anaheim and Colorado to win their divisions. I see a strong likelihood that Anaheim and Vancouver will be fighting for the 3 seed in the Pacific, and Colorado will be battling Minnesota and Dallas in the Central. One of those 5 teams will miss out on the playoffs, a surprise performance from Nashville or Phoenix could make it two, but I don't expect that. That's why I put ANA, COL, MIN, DAL, and VAN in a group together.

[FlameZilla]

You're dead to me, Ratim.

[FAN]

Originally Posted by 19Yzerman19

Anyway, this is an excellent signing by the Canucks in so far as Vrbata is actually worth $5M right now and probably will be next year, too.

...

Still terrible center depth but it's by no means a basement-dweller on paper. I dunno, this looks like a 7-11 team to me.

I guess in today's market Vrbata is worth $5M? I am still adjusting to the new economic environment. But I guess Cammalleri got $5MX5, getting Vrbata for $5MX2 is a good deal and addresses a need.

If they re-sign Santorelli they actually have amassed some really good center depth, albeit bottom 6 depth. Henrik, Bonino, Santorelli, Matthias, Richardson, and Jeffrey have all spent significant time as NHL centers. Vey can play in the middle as well. Not much in the way of top 6 center depth though.

I think if all goes well the Canucks can squeeze into the playoffs but anything but a fast start or injuries to their top guys will likely doom them.

[GoJetsGo]

Originally Posted by driveway

I fully expect Vancouver to be competing for a playoff spot next season

Even if they end up close enough to challenge for one of the final spots, it's just an audition for an a$$ kicking in the opening round.

They're trending down, big time. And this move and the decision to "re-tool" is going to keep them in that no-mans land just outside of the playoffs but far enough from the bottom to draft top prospects.

It's going to be a rough few years before they accept they need to tear it right down.

[bluck]

No way Vancouver can compete with Chicago, LA, ANH, or STL in a 7 game series. They are going the same route as we did when we tried to add Tanguay and Bouwmeester to an aging core.

[Tinordi]

Vrbata is probably the best player to ever play with the Sedins.

[Hells Bells]

The Canucks remind me of the Flames of 5 or 6 years ago.

The Flames team that would barely scrape into the playoffs only to be 1st round fodder for the Sharks or Wings.

And that's a big if the Canucks can even squeak into the playoffs.

Good signing though.

[mister__big]

Originally Posted by FAN

I guess in today's market Vrbata is worth $5M? I am still adjusting to the new economic environment. But I guess Cammalleri got $5MX5, getting Vrbata for $5MX2 is a good deal and addresses a need.

Vrbata is consistently a 50-55 point player and that's worth about $4.5~5.0M these days. Considering the fact that the Canucks have promised Vrbata that he will get to play with the Sedins, he shouldn't have much problem hitting 60 or even 70 points. Plus the short term makes it easy to trade him for a pick if things don't work out somehow.

Vancouver made out like a bandit in this signing with plenty of upside and almost no risks.

[FAN]

Originally Posted by mister__big

Vrbata is consistently a 50-55 point player and that's worth about $4.5~5.0M these days. Considering the fact that the Canucks have promised Vrbata that he will get to play with the Sedins, he shouldn't have much problem hitting 60 or even 70 points. Plus the short term makes it easy to trade him for a pick if things don't work out somehow.

Vancouver made out like a bandit in this signing with plenty of upside and almost no risks.

Vrbata's career high is 62 points and he did it playing alongside Whitney who had 77 points that year. Burrow's career high was 67 points and most of the time it's about 50. I think 60 points from Vrbata playing with the Sedins would be above expectations. 70 points is highly improbable. Keep in mind that Henrik doesn't score too many goals and with Daniel's decline, Vrbata can score 30 goals and not pick up enough assists that get much more than 60 points. I think a successful season would be around 25 goals and 50 points.

With that said, I agree that this is a good signing given the Canucks' need to add scoring.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Vrbata is probably the best player to ever play with the Sedins.

Yeah, it's a real shame he's 33 and the Sedin's are 34.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Good signing for Vancouver. Doesn't change the probable outcome of them competing with Calgary and Edmonton for the bottom of the division, but a good signing none the less.

[19Yzerman19]

Originally Posted by driveway

Vancouver, on the other hand, had what looked to me to be a catastrophically bad season. They had a 7.1 shooting percentage which should correct upwards. Their PDO wasn't terrible, but at 99.6% could easily swing upwards.
They went 19-10-11 in one-goal games, a lucky swing upwards in this area would substantially improve their position in the league. As of a 2-1 victory over the St. Louis Blues on January 10th SportsClubStats.com had them at a 92.64% chance of making the playoffs. They rose as high as 94.59% on January 11th based on the play of other teams. The Rumble in Rogers was on the 18th of January, and then they fell off a cliff.

First, I think if you look closely you'll see they were still treading water for a few games after Jan 18. It was the 1-0 defeat to LAK that they were so proud of ("moral victories") followed by giving up 9 goals to the Ducks the next game that really sent them off the ledge.

Second, agree with basically everything in your post, but worth adding how almost inexplicably bad their power play was last year. They generated shots at a top 5 rate (4th I believe) but were bottom 5 in percentage owing to an absurdly low shooting percentage. I can't see how that doesn't correct itself somewhat next year. But then I'm still unable to explain how it didn't manage to do so at some point last year.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by diane_phaneuf

you missed the point, it had nothing to do with standings

Agreed. The point is that the Canucks are still trying to build around a pair of aging, declining veterans that aren't good enough to lead them to success any more while not being bad enough to just give up and blow it up.

I respect that Vancouver is trying to win rather than trying to Oiler, but don't kid yourself by splitting hairs over which aspect of the 09-10 Flames comparisons you don't like. The Canucks are stuck in no mans land. Your best case scenario is to sneak into the playoffs as a bottom seed, only to be bounced in four or five games by one of the teams in this conference that matter.