Top 5 Draft Poll - 4. Calgary Flames

[Steve Bozek]

If it's Dal Colle vs Draisaitl, I think the fact that there is almost a year age difference might move me toward Dal Colle

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Steve Bozek

If it's Dal Colle vs Draisaitl, I think the fact that there is almost a year age difference might move me toward Dal Colle

That's a good point as Dal Colle and Bennett share the same birthday and are both almost a year younger than both Reinhart and Draisaitl. Another year of junior for both of these guys and their output would be higher than this season.

[StrykerSteve]

Now that's what I call a landslide majority, lol.

[ignite09]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

That's a good point as Dal Colle and Bennett share the same birthday and are both almost a year younger than both Reinhart and Draisaitl. Another year of junior for both of these guys and their output would be higher than this season.

Is there actually any stats to back up the whole "younger is better" argument? I'm not saying it doesn't matter, but every draft this is brought in as a factor. If you go back through drafts from ten or twenty years ago do you actually see an advantage drafting the younger player?

[mile]

Not sure if this has been talked about yet, but Oilers head scout Stu MacGregor talked about the draft yesterday:

(Starting at 14:45)
https://soundcloud.com/thejasongrego...-052614-hour-4

Dal Colle
-Thinks Dal Colle will likely remain a winger, though there may be an oppurtunity for him to be a centre

Nylander
-Has experience playing in smaller rinks in North America
-Dynamic offensive player
-Interviewed Nylander, says he can play centre/wing - whatever the coach needs

Draisaitl
-Thinks Draisaitl will be a great player
-Has to learn to play away from the puck, but not lazy
-Able to translate his game(positives and negatives) from junior to the World Championship
-The negatives in his game are fixable, the high skill is what matters now

Reinhart vs Bennett
-Similar in lots of ways, both are smart, creative players
-Bennett has an innate ability to keep a play alive, it never seems to die
-Reinhart accomplishes the same in a more cerebral way, always in right position, always looking to steal the puck

Their Pick:
-Size is very important, but will present to management who they think is the best regardless and leave it to management
-if management wants the bigger player, they will take him (Obviously)
-if two players they like are identical they will obviously take the bigger player (Obviously)


Although he didn't say much, I personally thought he was slightly higher on Draisaitl than Reinhart and Bennett, and didn't say much to differentiate Reinhart and Bennett(thinking they were pretty similar.)

From the interview I'd say their order from the top 3 centres would be:
1.Draisaitl
2.Bennett
3.Reinhart

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by ignite09

Is there actually any stats to back up the whole "younger is better" argument? I'm not saying it doesn't matter, but every draft this is brought in as a factor. If you go back through drafts from ten or twenty years ago do you actually see an advantage drafting the younger player?

Well how did Poriier do this season compared to last season? Considerably better no? Yes a year makes a difference as most players in junior have incremental point increases year to year as they get bigger and stronger.

[ignite09]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Well how did Poriier do this season compared to last season? Considerably better no? Yes a year makes a difference as most players in junior have incremental point increases year to year as they get bigger and stronger.

Yes, but what I'm asking is if there is actually any stats to back up the advantage of picking the younger player in the draft. If you look at the scouts rankings, they don't seem to take age in as a major consideration. So is it more fans putting more weight behind the age argument then necessary, or are scouts dropping the ball when it comes to a prospects age?

[ignite09]

If you want an example EE, Reinhart is nearly a year older than Bennett, yet that is almost never metioned as an advantage for Bennett.

[dissentowner]

Anybody who didn't vote Bennett here is either trolling or out to lunch.

[theoforever]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Anybody who didn't vote Bennett here is either trolling or out to lunch.

Everyone has the right to an opinion, no matter how insane.

[Monahan23]

6.24% of the voters had a spasm and click the wrong guy.

My rankings for the Flames are
1. Ekblad
2. Reinhart
3. Bennett
4. Draisaitl
5. Dal Colle
6. Ritchie

Although based on Conroy's interview it's probably
1. Bennett
2. Ekblad
3. Reinhart

And not sure about the rest but it sound like Bennett is their guy. They're picking BPA

I've heard Oilers fans say that they think MacT's list is
1. Ekblad
2. Draisaitl
3. Bennett
4. Reinhart
5. Nylander

Buffalo could pick Leon as well

[A Shot Wide]

I love how the worse-case scenario (besides if our entire management team has a brain aneurysm draft day) is picking a 6'2+ 210 pound extremely skilled passer and shooter with elite vision and hockey IQ. Plus by every account being hardworking and a class act. I like this top 4 scenario.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by A Shot Wide

I love how the worse-case scenario (besides if our entire management team has a brain aneurysm draft day) is picking a 6'2+ 210 pound extremely skilled passer and shooter with elite vision and hockey IQ. Plus by every account being hardworking and a class act. I like this top 4 scenario.

It really is quite hilarious.

[Gaskal]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I really won't be shocked if the first three picks in this draft are Reinhart, Bennett and Draisaitl....in no particular order.

If that happens I hope the Flames take Ehlers, to be honest. Sounds like he's going to be an electric player.

Passing on Ekblad if available at 4th, for Ehlers? I give myself more of a chance to score with Scarlett Johansson than this happening.

[Steve Bozek]

Originally Posted by ignite09

Yes, but what I'm asking is if there is actually any stats to back up the advantage of picking the younger player in the draft. If you look at the scouts rankings, they don't seem to take age in as a major consideration. So is it more fans putting more weight behind the age argument then necessary, or are scouts dropping the ball when it comes to a prospects age?

I think there are data showing that birth date within a year makes a difference in teenagers' performance in Junior hockey, and high school sports, but I can't recall the reference. It probably doesn't make very much difference when you're talking about star players like this, but I suspect it may apply more to the next tier of players, that become "late bloomers". Still, as pointed out, a year made a big difference for Poirier.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by Steve Bozek

I think there are data showing that birth date within a year makes a difference in teenagers' performance in Junior hockey, and high school sports, but I can't recall the reference. It probably doesn't make very much difference when you're talking about star players like this, but I suspect it may apply more to the next tier of players, that become "late bloomers". Still, as pointed out, a year made a big difference for Poirier.

Malcolm Gladwell made that point in a recent book. Basically a kid born earlier in the year makes a big difference developmentally, early. So when a kid is basically a year older as a 6 year old playing against 5 year olds, he looks amazing. That may then provide him with more opportunities, better coaching, etc. which will further improve his skills. It is just a theory, but an interesting one. His "proof" IIRC, was the Canadian world junior hockey team, which had a disproportionate number of January-March kids on the team.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

Malcolm Gladwell made that point in a recent book. Basically a kid born earlier in the year makes a big difference developmentally, early. So when a kid is basically a year older as a 6 year old playing against 5 year olds, he looks amazing. That may then provide him with more opportunities, better coaching, etc. which will further improve his skills. It is just a theory, but an interesting one. His "proof" IIRC, was the Canadian world junior hockey team, which had a disproportionate number of January-March kids on the team.

Yes, all true.

But the draft offers a new dynamic in that the cut-off is September. So the 'young guys' are the guys born in the summer (like Bennett) and the 'older guys' are the kids born Oct-Dec (which is the opposite of the above study).

I doubt there is any evidence, and I would imagine that scouts consider it, but I think it is a definite factor when trying to compare two kids in junior and one of them is 11 months (or 5%) older

[Flames Draft Watcher]

I'm starting to think there's a really good chance Reinhart is there at #4. And that there may in fact be a slight chance Ekblad could be.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yes, all true.

But the draft offers a new dynamic in that the cut-off is September. So the 'young guys' are the guys born in the summer (like Bennett) and the 'older guys' are the kids born Oct-Dec (which is the opposite of the above study).

I doubt there is any evidence, and I would imagine that scouts consider it, but I think it is a definite factor when trying to compare two kids in junior and one of them is 11 months (or 5%) older

Also all true, but what Gladwell proposes is that those early born kids are so much better younger (maybe 12% older at 8 years and January cutoff) that they simply develop into better players due to better coaching, more practise, etc. One would think later borns would 'catch up' over time, but would account for more early birth's in the CHL due to young Bantam draft age.

The same can probably be hypothesized for socio-economic advantaged kids. I expect a disproportionate number of elite hockey players come from 'wealthy' families. I expect there is no study for this, and is really only a guess based on my experience with a Jr. Hockey organization.