[Signing] Keegan Kanzig inked to an ELC

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Vandermeer had waaaaay better offensively numbers in junior. In fact, I don't think any successful defenseman prospect has ever had such low output.

They may be out there, but I've looked a bit and I can't find one

You are putting too much stock into junior numbers. There is no recipe that says since player X scored Y points he will produce Z amount in the NHL.

[Delthefunky]

I think most people were wondering who this guy was when he was first drafted, and why he was drafted so high. Then it ended up that he actually looked pretty good in prospects camp, and got a long extended look in the pre-season. Now, Burke has made it clear that he's important to the team going forward. I know some guy's have had a chance to see him play live once or twice, but beyond that all the skepticism is purely coming from stat sheets. There's obviously something about Kanzig that has the Flames excited about his future.

[puckluck2]

Is he a feared fighter? I saw a fight with an Oil King and he ate one shot and fell like a sack of bricks.

[saillias]

Originally Posted by Delthefunky

I think most people were wondering who this guy was when he was first drafted, and why he was drafted so high. Then it ended up that he actually looked pretty good in prospects camp, and got a long extended look in the pre-season. Now, Burke has made it clear that he's important to the team going forward. I know some guy's have had a chance to see him play live once or twice, but beyond that all the skepticism is purely coming from stat sheets. There's obviously something about Kanzig that has the Flames excited about his future.

Yup, same thing that has them excited with Colborne. Size over everything else.

[Parallex]

People making the Chara comparison are cra-cra. His ceiling is probably Gill, his floor now that he's signed is career ECHL/AHL'er, his realistic projection is probably John Scott.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Alberta_Beef

You are putting too much stock into junior numbers. There is no recipe that says since player X scored Y points he will produce Z amount in the NHL.

Its not 100% in any case. I'm sure everyone will agree on that.

But if 98% of NHL defencemen put up at least X amount of points in Juniors, then you have to conclude that lack of junior scoring is a big indicator of lack of NHL potential.

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Its not 100% in any case. I'm sure everyone will agree on that.

But if 98% of NHL defencemen put up at least X amount of points in Juniors, then you have to conclude that lack of junior scoring is a big indicator of lack of NHL potential.

I just don't see the concern to be quite honest. He is a defense first defenseman, used in defensive situations. If he was getting PP time I might be concerned but you just know he is getting all the starts in the defensive zone and excessive PK time.

[saillias]

^If I could remember the site that did a good anaylsis of the 2013 draft prospects I would post a link.

Someone made a chart correlating PPG of defenders in their draft year in junior and NHL games played. The only outliers (guys who didn't put up points at a decent pace, and managed to make the NHL) were guys who exploded offensively in the following year.

Anyone know the site I'm talking about?

[The Swedish Flame]

Originally Posted by saillias

^If I could remember the site that did a good anaylsis of the 2013 draft prospects I would post a link.

Someone made a chart correlating PPG of defenders in their draft year in junior and NHL games played. The only outliers (guys who didn't put up points at a decent pace, and managed to make the NHL) were guys who exploded offensively in the following year.

Anyone know the site I'm talking about?

This?

[sureLoss]

http://thats-offside.blogspot.ca/201...and-draft.html

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Alberta_Beef

I just don't see the concern to be quite honest. He is a defense first defenseman, used in defensive situations. If he was getting PP time I might be concerned but you just know he is getting all the starts in the defensive zone and excessive PK time.

Well even the good defense first NHL defensemen played big two-way roles in juniors because they could skate faster, puck handle better, and make a better pass then guys that aren't destined to be quality NHL players.

Keegan Kanzig is trending towards Erskine or Fistric territory in terms of scoring.
That means he will probably be a guy that isn't an everyday player, plays limited minutes, and is there primarily for toughness.

If that is what you are hoping for in the draft selection then there is no reason to be disappointed. I personally am not opposed to using highish picks on toughness.

I think there are others that feel using a third round pick, and spending time and money developing a guy that will almost certainly be a borderline NHLer is a waste of time and money when you can trade for those guys using less assets then a 3rd rounder, or just sign them in the offseason. I can understand that point of view.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I see John Scott coming up as a comparable, and I think it is a horrible one. Scott was a forward, and he didn't get points. Scott is not a 'smart' player out there. Let's face it, he is JUST a goon, and nothing more. He isn't even a playable goon. McGrattan is a much better hockey player than Scott.

Kanzig is not 'just a goon'. Goons don't really get invited to special tournaments. Goons don't play heavy minutes against the other teams' top lines consistently. Kanzig's lack of offence is a bit disconcerting and you do have to wonder what his future success might be in the NHL, but to say John Scott is a comparable is comparison made blindly on stats only. Kanzig is a very good shut-down d-man that is developing really nicely.

From what one poster has said, which seems to coincide with scouting reports done, Kanzig had a terrible 1st year in the WHL. His second season was really good, as he shot up to the top pairing and was a rock on the defensive side of things. This year, he is continuing his solid defensively play, and I hoped he would start increasing his offence, but that hasn't happened yet.

I think Kanzig is a tough prospect to project. He looked really great in the prospect camp - much more mobile and smart out there than I ever thought he would be. He looked like a legitimate defensive prospect, not a goon.

edit: Scott plays both wing and defence, and he was used more as a defencemen in the NCAA. Still don't think it is a good comparison as his hockey IQ is non-existent.

[mikeecho]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

....because the Flames had a year and a half to sign Kanzig, and only half a year to sign those other guys. Just seems odd is all.

I'm pretty sure the negotiations on this contract probably took 5 minutes. I don't think the Flames dropped everything else on the go to get Kanzig signed. Organizations and business in general don't just do one thing at a time.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

Kanzig is not 'just a goon'. Goons don't really get invited to special tournaments. Goons don't play heavy minutes against the other teams' top lines consistently. Kanzig's lack of offence is a bit disconcerting and you do have to wonder what his future success might be in the NHL, but to say John Scott is a comparable is comparison made blindly on stats only. Kanzig is a very good shut-down d-man that is developing really nicely.

Who would you use as a comparable for Keegan if not guys like Erskine, Fistric, or Strudwick?

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by Cole436

Just like Chara was, right?

Originally Posted by puckluck2

Lol you do know that Chara himself was a third rounder?

Edit: already beaten.

Originally Posted by The Fonz

I realize that. And Datsyuk was a 6th round pick, while St. Louis was undrafted entirely. But they are the .1%

Setting the bar for a 6th rounder @ Datsyuk, and @ St. Louis for an undrafted player, is just absolutely absurd though.

Since you seemed to have missed the point I was making...

How many 6'5+ defenseman have been 'Chara' like in the last 25 years?

Chara
Pronger
...

How many were drafted over that same time span?

Setting Kanzig's ceiling as one of the top 20 defenseman of all time is absolutely ridiculous. Sure, it could happen, as it did with Chara. But I could also win the lotto 649 this week... should I set that as a realistic expectation though?

[puckluck2]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

Since you seemed to have missed the point I was making...

How many 6'5+ defenseman have been 'Chara' like in the last 25 years?

Chara
Pronger
...

How many were drafted over that same time span?

Setting Kanzig's ceiling as one of the top 20 defenseman of all time is absolutely ridiculous. Sure, it could happen, as it did with Chara. But I could also win the lotto 649 this week... should I set that as a realistic expectation though?

I don't see many people making Chara as the expectation. But your point of him not being a first rounder is ridiculous. It doesn't matter where he was drafted. It's how he plays after being drafted and I don't think he'll be anywhere near as good as Chara. But Chara was god awful in his first 5 or so years wasn't he? I think if Kanzig makes it he's about 7 years away from being an NHLer. With tall players Chara's name will always come up.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Who would you use as a comparable for Keegan if not guys like Erskine, Fistric, or Strudwick?

Gill does seem like the best comparison there, though Gill seems slower to me.

I don't know who to use as a good comparable actually. Fistric is not far off.

During the prospects camp, he didn't handle the puck like a grenade. He pinched 'smartly' on the plays. He was very good defensively. He actually looked like an older prospect out there most of the time, not one of the youngest - and it wasn't just due to his imposing size. I have a very difficult time thinking of a decent comparison to be honest. He just looks like a very legitimate prospect out there - which is not much of an argument at all, I realize.

If you look back and read what people thought of him from the camp, you would be hard-pressed to find any negativity about him. He really did impress. Perhaps expectations were so low around him, but he really did open a lot of eyes at camp.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Alberta_Beef

You are putting too much stock into junior numbers. There is no recipe that says since player X scored Y points he will produce Z amount in the NHL.

I wasn't trying to extrapolate points in the NHL. I was pointing out that players with his offensive output have never played and significant time in the NHL.

I'm no scout and haven't seen him play other than the prospect camp, but if history is any indication, I'm not too hopeful.

I hope I'm wrong, and it's only my opinion based soley on his stats for what it's worth

[Husky]

IF kanzig develops I see his upside as an Adam McQuaid type defenseman. Bottom pairing D, used on the PK and tough as nails.

[FBI]

Who's better? Kanzig or Breen?