Talked Flames with Pierre McGuire.

[Swayze11]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

I take that potential over any Greg Nemisz or Brendan Gaunce you can find late in the first round.

Pretty bad comparison. For every Nemisz and Gaunce there are TJ Oshie's, John Carlson's

[valo403]

Originally Posted by Swayze11

We don't. If someone offers you a 1st round pick for him, you take it and run in my opinion. Just by looking at the odds of grabbing a full time NHLer based on round they were selected, you make that move without thinking... especially in this years draft.

So you're basing this upon where he was initially drafted? So by that logic you we should just start gobbling up any player drafted in the 1st round, right? That would obviously be crazy, which is why you consider where the player is now, not just what round he was drafted in.

[valo403]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

He's a centre long term despite any games he's played on the wing this season. His coach said he sees him as a centre and with Tim Schaller graduating there are less centres ahead of him. I'm fairly sure he didn't play wing all year either but don't know where to look to back that up.

I saw him line up predominantly at C when I watched Providence in November, not sure how his role changed down the stretch.

[Swayze11]

Originally Posted by valo403

So you're basing this upon where he was initially drafted? So by that logic you we should just start gobbling up any player drafted in the 1st round, right? That would obviously be crazy, which is why you consider where the player is now, not just what round he was drafted in.

Nope, not one bit.

You are missing my point, once again. I have provided data that states you have a higher chance of getting a full time NHLer in the 1st round that you do in any other round. This is proven and is also common sense. My point is if you believe that a 1st rounder will get you a full time NHLer and have an asset (Gaudreau) that you feel has a ceiling lower then who you will be taking in the 1st round, you make that move. Am I saying we trade Gaudreau for a late 1st? No. I am saying if you feel whoever you take with that 1st rounder has a higher ceiling or an increased chance of being a full time NHLer over Gaudreau, then you make that move.

[Dienasty]

Originally Posted by Swayze11

Why does he have a better shot?
Why would you want more then a 1st?

What can I argue? I can't predict the future.

There is a reason he was taken in the 4th round. With his size, his odds automatically decrease in making the NHL. My argument is that he is not worth a 1st round pick. I am not saying he hasn't increased his value from where he was drafted.

All 29 other teams have a Gaudreau in their system. If you look at the % of players that make it to the NHL depending on what round they were drafted, its a significant drop off from round 1 to round 2.

If you can increase your chance of getting a full time NHLer, you do it. Again, I am not saying Johnny won't make it and for all I know he is the next St.Louis, but in terms of value at this very moment... how is he worth a 1st?

the knock on Gaudreau when he was drafted was that he was small and didn't think he would be able to handle the NCAA game (he tore up the USHL when drafted). Playing in the NCAA as a TRUE freshman is a huge accomplishment, but the fact that he averaged over a point a game on a championship roster is unheard of. He did this playing against 20-24 year old men.

Not only did he do that but he was even better in his second year 1.5PPG, and was named to the 1st team all stars at the WJHC. (That is the best players in the world under 20) and I think he is still eligible next year. On top of that he was one of the best forwards for the best team in the tournament.

He has answered so many questions in 2 years that I don't think the Flames would accept anything less then a 1st round pick. I believe another guy comparable to his size was drafted 1st overall (Kane).

Does he still have a lot of risk? Yes, but not more then any 1st rounder considering his talent. But he is also 2 years further in his development and has unlimited potential. To make the NHL he will need to add about 15-20lbs of muscle, and completely change his diet. But that is a lot easier to do then coaching a guy to be a sniper/playmaker.

[valo403]

Originally Posted by Swayze11

Nope, not one bit.

You are missing my point, once again. I have provided data that states you have a higher chance of getting a full time NHLer in the 1st round that you do in any other round. This is proven and is also common sense. My point is if you believe that a 1st rounder will get you a full time NHLer and have an asset (Gaudreau) that you feel has a ceiling lower then who you will be taking in the 1st round, you make that move. Am I saying we trade Gaudreau for a late 1st? No. I am saying if you feel whoever you take with that 1st rounder has a higher ceiling or an increased chance of being a full time NHLer over Gaudreau, then you make that move.

No, you're doing exactly what I thought. You're saying that a first rounder has a better chance of making the NHL than a fourth rounder. Of course. You're then somehow extrapolating that to say that you would trade Gaudreau for a first round pick (you said that earlier), conveniently leaving out any development that has occurred. Now you're saying that you would trade Gaudreau for a better player. Again, of course.

[Swayze11]

Originally Posted by valo403

No, you're doing exactly what I thought. You're saying that a first rounder has a better chance of making the NHL than a fourth rounder. Of course. You're then somehow extrapolating that to say that you would trade Gaudreau for a first round pick (you said that earlier), conveniently leaving out any development that has occurred. Now you're saying that you would trade Gaudreau for a better player. Again, of course.

By doing research on this year draft, without question I would trade a late 1st for him and yes I am saying a 1st rounder has a better chance of making it then a 4th rounder.

Yes, he has developed. Is he worth more then a 4th? Yes. Is he worth a 1st + more, no. That is all I am trying to say.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

isn't Jankow playing wing right now?

Yes he is. Apparently it is due to a few reasons:
1) Canadian Prep High School doesn't prepare you for 'systems'. Jankowksi is raw, which means 'systems play' wasn't a strength for him. Centers have more responsibility defensively.
2) Massive upgrade in competition

I bet he starts playing center next season. This season was (in my opinion) getting his ears wet and seeing how much he had to develop. Next season should really be much more telling.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by Swayze11

Yes, he is a good hockey player but in terms of his current value.. he is not worth a 1st.

I just met you, and this is crazy, but I have no doubt there is at least 1 GM out there that would trade a 1st for Gaudreau right now. It wouldn't be a Top 10, probably not even a Top 20....but a late 1st for the guy? Absolutely, without a doubt. The hype around him is about as high as it can get right now without having to prove it at the NHL level.

If you redo the 2011 draft today (and having 2 years of hindsight is huge), I think this guy goes somewhere in the 15-25 range of the 1st round. The only reason he woudn't be Top 10 is the one thing that's been a knock on him forever....his size.

[Swayze11]

Originally Posted by fotze

I think Swayze differs in that he thinks Gaudreau's chance to become an NHLer, even with the two years of extra knowledge, is in that equivalent to mid second round range in this years draft. Which is why he would trade a mid second round for a bottom 1st round.

I like most the others think he is right arounf that late 1st pick range when combining upside and likelihood to make it. My personal error bar is probably an entire round though.

I think the other complicating factor is that intangible if he does turn out, the optics of trading him and yet another Flames player traded too soon. You don;t get crucified for a trade no one ever knew about though.

I don't think a trade for a late 1st round pick would be that unreasonable. I would rather not, but I don't think its outlandish.

That is bang on what I was trying to say. I apologize for not being clear.

[kehatch]

PM never said it was a good pick for Calgary. He was clearly surprised they went off the board. But even if he likes Jankowski it doesn't mean that he thinks Calgary should have been gambling on a long term project when higher chance prospects were available.

I don't have an issue with it. I thought it was a weak draft so going after a high risk/reward player was a smart move.

[bucksmasher]

OP "Hey guys I saw Pierre Mcguire"..............

..............a large battle on the high seas of the internet breaks out