Russia invades Ukraine

[afc wimbledon]

If Ukraine can continue to denude Russia's troops and AFV's at its current rate while the sanctions continue to destroy the Russian economy then Russia's collapse is all but ensured, this isnt a small country taking on a behemoth, the Ukraine has more troops and armour in the field than Russia and a limited set of objectives and access to far far better weapon and munitions all be it at a slower rate than is ideal, the Russian Army is bleeding to death

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

If Ukraine can continue to denude Russia's troops and AFV's at its current rate while the sanctions continue to destroy the Russian economy then Russia's collapse is all but ensured, this isnt a small country taking on a behemoth, the Ukraine has more troops and armour in the field than Russia and a limited set of objectives and access to far far better weapon and munitions all be it at a slower rate than is ideal, the Russian Army is bleeding to death

Of all the tough guy presidents since 1945 that would have loved to dance with the Red Army, it's Grandpa Joe Biden that gets asked to the ball.

The miscalculation by Putin is simply staggering. America will wipe the floor with them and not send a single American into battle.

[curves2000]

I do wonder if NATO is making another strategic mistake in their line of thinking about this. Ukraine and it's President are looking for concrete steps and a timeline for them getting into NATO, obviously it can't happen now since Russian troops are currently inside it's borders.

Back in 2008 when Georgia and Ukraine were told they could start the process at the NATO summit, it kind of left both of them in the worst possible position. It showed Putin that he has been right about fears of NATO expansion but it also didn't give the countries the protection of NATO. Putin was able to invade both countries in a short time frame and suffered little to no consequences as a result.

As long as Russia has any troops inside Ukraine, and that could be a very very long time, are these NATO meetings and talks about Ukraine joining them just for show??

I feel that until we ramp up pressure in a significant way with Russia, with sheer force and determination to prove that this invasion will not work for Putin , he will just continue the same tactics.

A lot of the west does not understand the geopolitical aspects to this and your common American and US politician may eventually get tired of supporting Ukraine to the same extent . With Putin escalating threats of nuclear war as a way of keeping the west on it's toes, will he just be able to grind it out as long as he can?

I just wonder if we should flip the script and put pressure on Putin to withdraw or take an exit ramp with a serious threat of Ukraine gaining serious membership to NATO with these steps or long term military support with an abundance of NATO trained troops and equipment

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by curves2000

I do wonder if NATO is making another strategic mistake in their line of thinking about this. Ukraine and it's President are looking for concrete steps and a timeline for them getting into NATO, obviously it can't happen now since Russian troops are currently inside it's borders.

Back in 2008 when Georgia and Ukraine were told they could start the process at the NATO summit, it kind of left both of them in the worst possible position. It showed Putin that he has been right about fears of NATO expansion but it also didn't give the countries the protection of NATO. Putin was able to invade both countries in a short time frame and suffered little to no consequences as a result.

As long as Russia has any troops inside Ukraine, and that could be a very very long time, are these NATO meetings and talks about Ukraine joining them just for show??

I feel that until we ramp up pressure in a significant way with Russia, with sheer force and determination to prove that this invasion will not work for Putin , he will just continue the same tactics.

A lot of the west does not understand the geopolitical aspects to this and your common American and US politician may eventually get tired of supporting Ukraine to the same extent . With Putin escalating threats of nuclear war as a way of keeping the west on it's toes, will he just be able to grind it out as long as he can?

I just wonder if we should flip the script and put pressure on Putin to withdraw or take an exit ramp with a serious threat of Ukraine gaining serious membership to NATO with these steps or long term military support with an abundance of NATO trained troops and equipment

I don't think so. Regardless of NATO membership Russia isn't going to pull out unless they have no choice. NATO membership isn't changing Russia's expansionist goals at all. There needs to be less wringing of hands about what Russia will do if x, y, or z. Do what Ukraine needs. Russia has zero cards to play

[curves2000]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

I don't think so. Regardless of NATO membership Russia isn't going to pull out unless they have no choice. NATO membership isn't changing Russia's expansionist goals at all. There needs to be less wringing of hands about what Russia will do if x, y, or z. Do what Ukraine needs. Russia has zero cards to play

I agree but there appears still be cracks and fears about pissing off Russia, poking the bear so to speak.

That is why there has been hesitation to provide Ukraine with a lot more of the equipment, fighter jet's and more.

It's NATO kind of walking on egg shells in a lot of ways. We won't train pilots on F16's from a year ago, yet Ukraine has lost a lot of it's top pilots. They are now starting the process that will be 4-6 months.

We needed a huge NATO wide effort to get them 100 of the best tanks, yet Ukraine is saying that need more than 300 as a starting point.

I just hope in the end it doesn't end up being a massive loss because we played the battle a little too conservatively.

[Huntingwhale]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1679356218165346305

https://twitter.com/user/status/1679357910046892033

Last night Kyiv was hit by a powerful russian terrorist drone attack throughout the night. Unfortunately my wife's best friend was one of those people who was affected by the attack. I have posted in this thread about her before, as she is one of the women who escaped with my wife from occupation last year from Kharkiv and she was picked up by CP member Legoman at the UA/PL border.

The unit beside her was struck by debris and the occupant who was her neighbor, a young man, was killed. She herself is physically fine, but obviously very very very distraught over it. Way to close for comfort.

Wish russia would just #### off already, call it a day and go back to living their miserable lives in that dump they call home. Disgusting excuse of a country.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by curves2000

I agree but there appears still be cracks and fears about pissing off Russia, poking the bear so to speak.



That is why there has been hesitation to provide Ukraine with a lot more of the equipment, fighter jet's and more.



It's NATO kind of walking on egg shells in a lot of ways. We won't train pilots on F16's from a year ago, yet Ukraine has lost a lot of it's top pilots. They are now starting the process that will be 4-6 months.



We needed a huge NATO wide effort to get them 100 of the best tanks, yet Ukraine is saying that need more than 300 as a starting point.



I just hope in the end it doesn't end up being a massive loss because we played the battle a little too conservatively.

Ukraine needs to ask for the moon in order to get what they need. They also need to ask now for what they will need later as it takes months to procure.

Russia has lost the war already. Everything has gotten vastly worse for them. NATO is much stronger and now includes Sweden and Finland, with Ukraine likely to become a member at some point. Their army has been decimated and capabilities vastly diminished. Subordinate states no longer fear Russia's aggression. Economically, it will take years if not decades to recover what they've lost and demographically they're crushed. The only "victory" available here is some type of frozen conflict so they don't appear to have been defeated. That's the best they can hope for and some in the west seem to prefer that outcome because they're afraid of the consequences of a Russian defeat. It's a cowardly position wrapped in false pragmatism

[jg13]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1679612440235892745

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

If Ukraine can continue to denude Russia's troops and AFV's at its current rate while the sanctions continue to destroy the Russian economy then Russia's collapse is all but ensured…

Unfortunately, sanctions aren’t destroying the Russian economy. Much of the world is still trading freely with Russia, and acting as middlemen for energy sales back to the West.

Yet over the following year, despite the repeated tightening of Western sanctions, Russia’s economy recovered its poise. The imf expects it to grow by 0.7% this year—on a par with France, and even as the British and German economies shrink. The hope that the state of Russia’s economy will provide any sort of constraint on the war has faded...

…Russia continues to import almost as much as it did before the invasion. New trading partners have sprung up to replace the West. China now sells twice as much to Russia as it did in 2019. “Parallel” imports—unauthorised sales from the West to Russia via a third country of everything from fizzy drinks to computer chips—have soared. In 2022 imports from the eu to Armenia mysteriously doubled, even as Armenian exports to Russia tripled. Serbia’s exports of phones to Russia rose from $8,518 in 2021 to $37m in 2022. Shipments of washing machines from Kazakhstan to Russia rose from zero in 2021 to nearly 100,000 units last year…

Lower hydrocarbon sales mean lower government revenues. In 2022 the Russian government ran a deficit of about 3trn roubles ($37bn), or 2% of gdp. This year it is planning something similar, but actual spending and taxation data so far this year make that look optimistic. A deficit in the range of at least 10trn roubles, as much as 5% of gdp, looks likelier—high by Russian standards.

All the same, the Russian state has plenty of options to fund itself. Russia’s sovereign-wealth fund still has about $150bn (about 10% of gdp), even after being drained of about $30bn last year. The government could also issue more debt. Last year’s bumper exports have left big Russian energy firms with lots of cash they must stash somewhere. Those firms, which are largely state-owned anyway, could also be hit with a windfall tax, as they were last year. And Russian financial institutions hold sufficient assets to cover 10trn-rouble deficits for 25 years–a huge resource the government might seek to tap in some way. Richard Connolly, an expert on the Russian economy at rusi, a think-tank, says, “The government can always fund itself by taking money from big companies.”

Money, in other words, will not be a severe constraint on the war effort. Demands on the budget for this purpose are in any case modest. Our best guess, based on comparing actual spending figures with what was budgeted before the war, is that Russia’s assault on Ukraine is currently costing it about 5trn roubles a year, or 3% of gdp–less than America spent on the Korean war.

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2...re-intense-one

Nonetheless, the sanctions are biting enough that Russia would struggle to ramp up its war effort. So barring a collapse of morale of the Russian army - a real possibility, but one which is less likely if they adopt a strictly defensive posture - it’s looking like a stalemate will settle in over the next 12 months.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

However, the sanctions are biting enough that Russia would struggle to ramp up its war effort. In the absence of a collapse of morale of the Russian army - less likely if they adopt a strictly defensive posture - it’s looking like a stalemate will settle in over the next 12 months.

Tough to say.

One thing this conflict has done pretty well, is defy predictions.

I am hopeful that with continued Western support, including aircraft the Ukrainians can continue to pick they way East and South East.

If they cut that land bridge things potentially change.........

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Unfortunately, sanctions aren’t destroying the Russian economy. Much of the world is still trading freely with Russia, and acting as middlemen for energy sales back to the West.



Nonetheless, the sanctions are biting enough that Russia would struggle to ramp up its war effort. So barring a collapse of morale of the Russian army - a real possibility, but one which is less likely if they adopt a strictly defensive posture - it’s looking like a stalemate will settle in over the next 12 months.

I'd be a little careful believing any numbers on the Russian economy. Outside of exports almost every number comes from the Russian government (Rosstat) who have a pretty big credibility issue. IMF relies on voluntary data from individual nations and have no Independent data

[Itse]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Unfortunately, sanctions aren’t destroying the Russian economy. Much of the world is still trading freely with Russia, and acting as middlemen for energy sales back to the West.



Nonetheless, the sanctions are biting enough that Russia would struggle to ramp up its war effort. So barring a collapse of morale of the Russian army - a real possibility, but one which is less likely if they adopt a strictly defensive posture - it’s looking like a stalemate will settle in over the next 12 months.

IMF is using statistics given to them by Russian official sources, and at least last year they weren't doing anything to confirm them. So it's basically just circulating Russian propaganda.

No one knows what the real state of Russian economy is.

However, Russian government has been doing things that look a lot like penny-pinching, like closing consulates and not paying all their international bills, which suggests they're seriously suffering.

[Firebot]

Lots of development occurring, even though it may seem to the naked eye that the Ukrainian counter offensive is slow. Russia has moved out nearly all of their Russian troops out of Belarus for redeployment elsewhere according to Ukraine. With Wagner MIA (they never went to Belarus despite the rhetoric) this leaves Belarus particularly open for an uprising should its military turn against Lukashenko. Ivan Popov who was mentioned before, is now nowhere to be found after his audio comments, same for Prighozin who has not been heard from since the 'meeting' with Putin. Some speculation he may be dead or in prison. Recent picture of him allegedly in a camp in Belarus. Other rumours that he has been in St Petersberg all along and never stepped in Belarus, and uses body doubles. Right now we have nothing concrete to go with. Where in the world is Prighozin?

Things are truly dire for Russia right now and the picture is one of total disarray and falling apart internally.

But they have the best of the best still ready to fight.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1679841114784768001

[Firebot]

Russia now allegedly arresting labor migrants to send them to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1679850323546980352

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Itse

IMF is using statistics given to them by Russian official sources, and at least last year they weren't doing anything to confirm them. So it's basically just circulating Russian propaganda.
.

Did you miss the part about enormous increases in trade with China, and through third-party countries like Serbia and Singapore?

It’s funny calling the Economist a mouthpiece for Russian propaganda. They’ve been staunchly pro-Ukraine from the get-go. But they’re also an empirically-driven organization that doesn’t let wishful thinking shape their reporting.

One sobering lesson from this conflict is that the West does not dominate the globe the way it did 30 years ago. Most of the world is not onboard with the sanctions against Russia, and for all the levers at our disposal, the West no longer has the means to bring everyone else into line.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Did you miss the part about enormous increases in trade with China, and through third-party countries like Serbia and Singapore?

It’s funny calling the Economist a mouthpiece for Russian propaganda. They’ve been staunchly pro-Ukraine from the get-go. But they’re also an empirically-driven organization that doesn’t let wishful thinking shape their reporting.

One sobering lesson from this conflict is that the West does not dominate the globe the way it did 30 years ago. Most of the world is not onboard with the sanctions against Russia, and for all the levers at our disposal, the West no longer has the means to bring everyone else into line.

Sometimes all it takes to be a mouthpiece is to not consider your sources. Journalists are often lazy.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/13...on-statistics/

Moscow has made economic statistics a central part of its information war.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by Itse

Sometimes all it takes to be a mouthpiece is to not consider your sources. Journalists aee often lazy.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/13...on-statistics/

Countering an article from The Economist about Russian economic data with an article written by an expert from The Economist saying not to trust information about Russian economic data haha

[JohnnyB]

India has been buying Russian oil, refining it and reselling it to Europe, and even snubbed the EU by basically saying "you can't stop us" when challenged on it. Yet, India received a warm welcome at the White House and American press gives love to Modi doing yoga on the UN's lawn. Nor was there any attention given to the issues in Kashmir or the treatment of Muslims when hosting a G20 meeting in Kashmir.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

India has been buying Russian oil, refining it and reselling it to Europe, and even snubbed the EU by basically saying "you can't stop us" when challenged on it. Yet, India received a warm welcome at the White House and American press gives love to Modi doing yoga on the UN's lawn. Nor was there any attention given to the issues in Kashmir or the treatment of Muslims when hosting a G20 meeting in Kashmir.

So India is bad global south? Isn't the lack of US outreach to the global south your big issue.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

So India is bad global south? Isn't the lack of US outreach to the global south your big issue.

He's also very concerned about the treatment of muslims now.