Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0

[Paulie Walnuts]

Can anyone explain why Calgary votes for mayors like Gondek and Nenshi and turn around and butcher the provincial election with trash like Kenney and Smith?

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

I don’t know, but honestly I think pollsters should avoid pontificating about election results too much. I find it a bit unseemly. Polls aren’t a prediction of the future anyway, they’re a snapshot in time that gives a sense of what voters are thinking on the day that they are polled. And they are subject both to sampling error and occasionally sampling bias that isn’t clear until after the election. We saw that in polls when Obama was first elected that didn’t call cell phone lines (because younger and more educated people were less likely to have land lines but more likely to vote for Obama, so leaving them out of the sample tended to skew the results).

That’s not to say they’re useless or anything but when pollsters start to say things like “this is how I predict the election will go in a week based on data I collected yesterday” I think they’ve forgotten the purpose of their tool and gone a bit astray scientifically. Just my two cents.

Every pollster pontificates. Janet Brown went into great detail on why she thinks the UCP will win, Marc Henry said he thought the UCP would win. It is something every single one of them do.

[timun]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Can anyone explain why Calgary votes for mayors like Gondek and Nenshi and turn around and butcher the provincial election with trash like Kenney and Smith?

Calgary 'burbs south of Anderson Road are notorious conservative voters. Jason Kenney was MLA in Calgary-Lougheed, which mostly coincides with Ward 13. Gondek had the plurality of mayoral votes in Ward 13 in 2021, but only 39.2% overall. Ward 13 councilor Dan McLean is one of council's most vocal conservative dingbats.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by timun

Calgary 'burbs south of Anderson Road are notorious conservative voters. Jason Kenney was MLA in Calgary-Lougheed, which mostly coincides with Ward 13. Gondek had the plurality of mayoral votes in Ward 13 in 2021, but only 39.2% overall. Ward 13 councilor Dan McLean is one of council's most vocal conservative dingbats.

See Sliver.... South Calgary is NO GOOD!

The North rules the city.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Every pollster pontificates. Janet Brown went into great detail on why she thinks the UCP will win, Marc Henry said he thought the UCP would win. It is something every single one of them do.

I know. I just find it unseemly, and I think they are out of their lanes a bit when they do it.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Can anyone explain why Calgary votes for mayors like Gondek and Nenshi and turn around and butcher the provincial election with trash like Kenney and Smith?

There are no parties in municipal politics, so Calgary voters have to evaluate each council and mayoral candidate on their own individual merits instead of default voting for the blue team like they automatically do in every provincial and federal election just like their parents and grandparents have been doing going back 50+ years. If you take away the conservative party branding, Calgarians actually like progressive policies far more than many people would have you believe.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

There are no parties in municipal politics, so Calgary voters have to evaluate each council and mayoral candidate on their own individual merits instead of default voting for the blue team like they automatically do in every provincial and federal election just like their parents and grandparents have been doing going back 50+ years. If you take away the conservative party branding, Calgarians actually like progressive policies far more than many people would have you believe.

I’d disagree that lack of parties is the reason.

Nenshi is in the space of the Chrétien Liberals so liberal socially (for the day) and slightly to the right economically. That fits with Calgary demographic. Godnek I think successfully branded herself (or was branded by the Farkas team) as four more years of Nenshi. Which she is not she is far more left.

But I think if you overlay the civic election results using Godnek as NDP votes and Farkas as Conservative votes I would bet it fairly closely aligns with provincial voting patterns.

As an aside this past election there were parties, they just weren’t public. Candidates endorsed by the two main PACs won every council seat and the mayor.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by GGG

I’d disagree that lack of parties is the reason.

Nenshi is in the space of the Chrétien Liberals so liberal socially (for the day) and slightly to the right economically. That fits with Calgary demographic. Godnek I think successfully branded herself (or was branded by the Farkas team) as four more years of Nenshi. Which she is not she is far more left.

But I think if you overlay the civic election results using Godnek as NDP votes and Farkas as Conservative votes I would bet it fairly closely aligns with provincial voting patterns.

As an aside this past election there were parties, they just weren’t public. Candidates endorsed by the two main PACs won every council seat and the mayor.

I base this on nothing at all, but I bet a lot of people identify municipal candidates as Conservative (naturally associating with prov/fed parties) to or Progressive (not really associating with any of the parties).

So IMO the inherent distrust of the libs/NDP that so many people seem to have is less influential in that direction (while my inherent distrust of conservatives does steer me away from obviously conservative candidates)

[Sainters7]

Originally Posted by timun

Calgary 'burbs south of Anderson Road are notorious conservative voters.Jason Kenney was MLA in Calgary-Lougheed, which mostly coincides with Ward 13. Gondek had the plurality of mayoral votes in Ward 13 in 2021, but only 39.2% overall. Ward 13 councilor Dan McLean is one of council's most vocal conservative dingbats.

After living in the deep S.E. for 3 years recently, this doesn't remotely surprise me. Decent area, great nature spots and some nice families, but it feels like the jacked up black Dodge Ram/flatbed trailer capital of Canada down there.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

There are no parties in municipal politics, so Calgary voters have to evaluate each council and mayoral candidate on their own individual merits instead of default voting for the blue team like they automatically do in every provincial and federal election just like their parents and grandparents have been doing going back 50+ years. If you take away the conservative party branding, Calgarians actually like progressive policies far more than many people would have you believe.

Yes, but they're too ****ing stupid to actually look into anything beyond "conservative = safe, everything else = evil/socialist". We're a city full of ridiculous, elementary school level voters.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Sainters7

After living in the deep S.E. for 3 years recently, this doesn't remotely surprise me. Decent area, great nature spots and some nice families, but it feels like the jacked up black Dodge Ram/flatbed trailer capital of Canada down there.

Oil industry benefactors that don't understand a single thing about anything in the world beyond, "I've made money through this industry"? Yeah, we all know many people from the deep south communities, lol.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by jayswin

Yes, but they're too ****ing stupid to actually look into anything beyond "conservative = safe, everything else = evil/socialist". We're a city full of ridiculous, elementary school level voters.

Must be tough being smarter than everyone else around you yet always being on the losing side. It gets old calling everyone stupid that doesn’t vote your way. I would look into why my party of choice isn’t gaining enough traction

https://twitter.com/user/status/1662717156277231616

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by kermitology

I live in BC now, so I can’t vote, but I did vote for Kathleen Ganley in the last election, and she’s wonderful. For me it comes down to who loves Alberta. When I think about that, you can definitely trust that Rachel Notley and the NDP truly love Alberta, and care for Albertans. When it comes to the UCP, it’s much murkier. We’ve seen money wasted on propping up businesses, literal attacks on Alberta residents (Nixon, Shandro), corrupt actions (Shandro, Madu, Smith), intolerance towards LGBTQ2+ (too many to count), and a lot of general disdain for Albertans.

This election is a choice between two parties, and it’s clear who is UNFIT to govern: the UCP.

2015 NDP was not going into that election expecting to govern, they figured it out in the second half, they moved to the centre, and frankly, Alberta needs to understand that they need to work with the federal government, not constantly against it. You can’t beg for money and then turn your nose up when the feds want things done consistently with other provinces.

Voting for the NDP won’t hurt Alberta, but voting for the UCP definitely will. It’s just a matter of when and how badly.

I’ll take my chances.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1662270156540882944

https://twitter.com/user/status/1662621457694990336

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Yoho..........I live in B.C.

Please don't believe everything you read. It's not true. If you really think 'Kirk Lubimov' is a great source of what is happening in this province, that's sad.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Yoho..........I live in B.C.

Please don't believe everything you read. It's not true. If you really think 'Kirk Lubimov' is a great source of what is happening in this province, that's sad.

How about Dr.Urbain Ip listed in the story?

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6852663

[Jiggy]

I'm a middle of the road Conservative. But there was no way I could vote for them this election with Smith at the helm.

The concerning thing was when I went to vote I was probably the only one below the age of 60 voting. Hopefully the young people get out and vote cause they most likely will lean NDP.

[kermitology]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Yoho..........I live in B.C.

Please don't believe everything you read. It's not true. If you really think 'Kirk Lubimov' is a great source of what is happening in this province, that's sad.

Never mind the fact that BC’s current healthcare situation is a product of a number of reasons quite unrelated to the BC NDP government.

[eddly]

Just some random thoughts this morning...

Looks like my riding, Calgary SE, is one of the most conservative in all of Calgary.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...sive-1.6852299

Jagmeet Singh won't chime in in terms of who he supports in the Alberta election? I get it, Provincial NDP does not equal the Federal NDP, but even so, it does benefit the Federal NDP, at least in terms of optics, to see the Provincial NDP party do well.

Endorsements so far:

Nenshi - NDP
Harper - UCP
Poilievre - UCP
Jagmeet Singh...?!?!?

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by eddly

Just some random thoughts this morning...

Looks like my riding, Calgary SE, is one of the most conservative in all of Calgary.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...sive-1.6852299

Jagmeet Singh won't chime in in terms of who he supports in the Alberta election? I get it, Provincial NDP does not equal the Federal NDP, but even so, it does benefit the Federal NDP, at least in terms of optics, to see the Provincial NDP party do well.

Endorsements so far:

Nenshi - NDP
Harper - UCP
Poilievre - UCP
Jagmeet Singh...?!?!?

I think they know it would have the opposite intended effect.

[koop]

Originally Posted by eddly

Jagmeet Singh won't chime in in terms of who he supports in the Alberta election? I get it, Provincial NDP does not equal the Federal NDP, but even so, it does benefit the Federal NDP, at least in terms of optics, to see the Provincial NDP party do well.

Endorsements so far:

Nenshi - NDP
Harper - UCP
Poilievre - UCP
Jagmeet Singh...?!?!?

But what does it do for the provincial NDP? Who in Alberta who wasn’t already voting NDP is being swayed by an endorsement by the Federal NDP? I think you answered your own question, it’s about optics. The UPC want to tie the Provincial and Federal NDP together, so I’m sure the provincial NDP are quite alright with the federal NDP not endorsing anyone in this election, what’s the potential gain?