"This is an unfolding story, and I think we're in the midst of a moving picture," Blinken told "Face the Nation." "We haven't seen the last act. We're watching it very closely."
Considering that Wagner just made the news for 'taking over' Central Africa Republic mere days after the mutiny, with Russia backing Wagner again after literally trying to delete them from the internet a few days ago, Wagner's chapter is far from over.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan told "Face the Nation" that Putin's reliance on Belarus to broker a truce shows "actual weakness." Putin helped the president of Belarus, Aleksandr Lukashenko, hold onto power in 2020 by suppressing large protests after Lukashenko declared a landslide victory in a contested presidential election. Since then, Lukashenko has been beholden to Putin, which made his involvement in the deal come as a surprise to many.
"How dependent now is Putin on Lukashenko?" Sullivan said.
Quote:
"We still don't have finality in terms of what was actually agreed between Prigozhin and Putin," Blinken said. "I suspect that we're going to learn more in the days and weeks ahead about what deal they struck."
So in terms of this, we saw Shoigu at Putin's meeting. I know that Putin's regime is claiming business as usual right now, and Shoigu remaining at least for the camera alludes to this. Prighozin was also believed to be in St Petersburg the same day as the rebellion, and only went to Minsk sometime yesterday. But the looks say it all.
Putin says Wagner mercenaries can join the regular army, go home or go to Belarus.
Uhhh... I'm not sure I understand the second option (or the third, to be fair).
Firstly, aren't most of these people convicted felons? They can just go home? Wouldn't they all pick this option?
Secondly, Russia is hurting for manpower and is trying to avoid more conscription since the last round saw twice as many men leave the country than join the army. So it's hard to believe they're just going to let the cannon fodder go home.
Sounds like a trap.
What is said publicly, and what it really means could be slightly different. I assume it's more likely that "Wagner mercenaries can join the regular army, go home (in a body bag) or go to Belarus (to a mass grave)"... I would then imagine an amazing, patriotic and loyal support for the first option.
According to Lukashenko himself it was Putin who blinked, with Prighozin refusing to take his calls (why Lukashenko got himself involved as he is friends with Prighozin).
On the Ukraine front there is a video surfacing around of a platoon of Ukraine forces trapped in a minefield with infantry blowing up as they try to help the injured trapped. I would highly recommend not to watch.
On the Ukraine front there is a video surfacing around of a platoon of Ukraine forces trapped in a minefield with infantry blowing up as they try to help the injured trapped. I would highly recommend not to watch.
I just came here to say this. A thoroughly depressing video - poor guys, just such a waste. War is awful. Don’t watch it - you’ll be better for it.
Russian troops always look so old overweight and raggedy assed, this is their dress blues, a presentation in the Kremlin to Putin to get medals and the trousers aren't ironed, they look like reservists
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Russian troops always look so old overweight and raggedy assed, this is their dress blues, a presentation in the Kremlin to Putin to get medals and the trousers aren't ironed, they look like reservists
they probably are
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Putin says Wagner mercenaries can join the regular army, go home or go to Belarus.
Uhhh... I'm not sure I understand the second option (or the third, to be fair).
Firstly, aren't most of these people convicted felons? They can just go home? Wouldn't they all pick this option?
Secondly, Russia is hurting for manpower and is trying to avoid more conscription since the last round saw twice as many men leave the country than join the army. So it's hard to believe they're just going to let the cannon fodder go home.
Sounds like a trap.
Now...I'm no expert in Mercenaries or nuthin' but...isnt it widely known that having a bunch of highly-trained, overly-aggressive 'guns for hire' sitting around idle is usually a very, very bad idea?
Usually you either put these guys into trouble...or they will make some of their own.
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Now...I'm no expert in Mercenaries or nuthin' but...isnt it widely known that having a bunch of highly-trained, overly-aggressive 'guns for hire' sitting around idle is usually a very, very bad idea?
Usually you either put these guys into trouble...or they will make some of their own.
paraphrasing Machiavelli, if you're not using your mercenaries you need to kill them
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Now...I'm no expert in Mercenaries or nuthin' but...isnt it widely known that having a bunch of highly-trained, overly-aggressive 'guns for hire' sitting around idle is usually a very, very bad idea?
Usually you either put these guys into trouble...or they will make some of their own.
What is the actual quality of the Wagner company in general? I have heard some analysts say that they are mostly nothing more than cannon fodder caliber. Yet in some ways, they have been more effective than the regular Russian army. I thought their relative success may have been more due to their fanatical behaviour compared to mobilized Russian troop, rather than their actual training or abilities.
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What is the actual quality of the Wagner company in general? I have heard some analysts say that they are mostly nothing more than cannon fodder caliber. Yet in some ways, they have been more effective than the regular Russian army. I thought their relative success may have been more due to their fanatical behaviour compared to mobilized Russian troop, rather than their actual training or abilities.
I'm no expert here so someone may be able to correct me, but it seems to not be totally straight answer. Wagner has been fighting for over a decade in Africa, Syria, and Ukraine as well as elsewhere so they have troops with a lot of combat experience. Recently, for this war they expanded significantly both in hardware capabilities and troops. To expand, they mostly took frm the dredges of society including prisons and sent these guys forward as cannon fodder while keeping the experienced good fighters to "mop up" after the "meat" had done their job. In Bakhmut it was often described that they would send in dozens of barely trained, barely armed "meat" forward to find out where AFU were, then shore up behind them afterwards. This lead to fields full of bodies piling up there and the cannon fodder reputation being earned. The Ukrainians fighting there feel that Wagner were certainly the strongest forces they encountered
I'm no expert here so someone may be able to correct me, but it seems to not be totally straight answer. Wagner has been fighting for over a decade in Africa, Syria, and Ukraine as well as elsewhere so they have troops with a lot of combat experience. Recently, for this war they expanded significantly both in hardware capabilities and troops. To expand, they mostly took frm the dredges of society including prisons and sent these guys forward as cannon fodder while keeping the experienced good fighters to "mop up" after the "meat" had done their job. In Bakhmut it was often described that they would send in dozens of barely trained, barely armed "meat" forward to find out where AFU were, then shore up behind them afterwards. This lead to fields full of bodies piling up there and the cannon fodder reputation being earned. The Ukrainians fighting there feel that Wagner were certainly the strongest forces they encountered
This echoes what I have read about the subject. The meat waves are meant to identify Ukr firing positions or create a breakthroughs the professional Wagner infantry can exploit. Wagner contract soldiers make a lot more than comparable RuAF so they have a decent sized contingent of higher end soldiers that "retired" from RuAF service.
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What is the actual quality of the Wagner company in general? I have heard some analysts say that they are mostly nothing more than cannon fodder caliber. Yet in some ways, they have been more effective than the regular Russian army. I thought their relative success may have been more due to their fanatical behaviour compared to mobilized Russian troop, rather than their actual training or abilities.
My understanding is; All of the above. They seem to have separate units ranging all the way from hordes of untrained nobodies, to ex-GRU and SSO operators
Prigozhin and others, such as Igor Girkin a staunchly pro-war Russian milblogger and war criminal, made no secret of their disdain for Russia’s military leaders and blamed them for the failure of Putin’s “special military operation”. It is suspected that Surovikin shared that view, and it was suggested that, because of this, he may well have helped plan Mr. Prigozhin’s actions last weekend, an accusation that US Intelligence is said to be investigating.
Independent experts as well as US and allied officials are reported in The Times that they believe Prigozhin may have been led to believe that a large part of Russia’s army would rally to his side as he headed for Moscow. It was the fact that such support did not materialize that he turned back less than 200 kilometers from Moscow, rather than his claim that he had made his point and wanted to avoid any more bloodshed.
Analysts feel that Putin knowing, or at least suspecting, that there was some sort of conspiracy between Prigozhin, Surovikin and other generals, has decided to “sweep it under the carpet.” This may explain his acceptance of the deal that would allow the Wagner rebels, including Prigozhin, to choose exile rather than be tried for treason, as called for by most of the Kremlin and Russia’s media hawks.
What is clear is Putin was definitely not in control of the situation, and most definitely has enemies around him even within his circle. At this moment though, everything is still speculation, as we still have no idea what deal was accepted and what exactly happened. What we do know is Lukashenko was the one to call Prighozin after Prighozin refused Putin's calls, and Lukashenko in his address may have been right that blowing up Wagner or killing Prighozin (Russia certainly has the means with collateral damage) would lead to civil war.
I guess we will wait and see if anything unfolds. In the meantime Ukraine continues to make gains.
