It's about as legitimate as when Russian media released video of Anton Kuprin getting a medal after the sinking of the Moskva.
I didn't say anything about the content. I said "pretty clear signal Shoigu is staying". Russian controlled account posts video of Shoigu "inspecting" stuff the day after mutiny against him seems like a signal, no?
I'm not sure what's to misinterpret here.
And who currently believes Shoigu is under house arrest by the FSB??? This seems like more speculation
As for the Nuclear weapon nonsense, the point of my posts were to end that baseless speculation not gum up the thread so I'll end my responses on that.
Edit: and on cue Prigozhin admits exactly what was suspected by actual experts
I didn't say anything about the content. I said "pretty clear signal Shoigu is staying". Russian controlled account posts video of Shoigu "inspecting" stuff the day after mutiny against him seems like a signal, no?
I'm not sure what's to misinterpret here.
I used Anton Kuprin's name for a reason, he is the captain of the Moskva who died with the ship last year. The Russian narrative after the incident is that not only was he alive, but russian media posted a video of him trying to discredit reports of his demise along with the ship.
This Shoigu video did not happen yesterday.
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And who currently believes Shoigu is under house arrest by the FSB??? This seems like more speculation
Prominent Russian telegram source which has been making the rounds. The video you just see was specifically released in attempted discredit that rumour.
We just had a mutiny / coup against Russia that suddenly stopped cold. Giving any type of credibility or validation to this mutiny attempt is sure to be seen as extremely negative for Putin.
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Edit: and on cue Prigozhin admits exactly what was suspected by actual experts
Does that sound like a man who is defeated? Sounds like he got what he wanted. His mercenary force is intact. And a protest demonstration that destroyed 7 aircraft sounds like quite the demonstration.
This is where Shoigu comes in. If you start suddenly seeing Dyumin making headway above Shoigu, my hypothesis that the Kremlin blinked first and gave Prighozin what he wanted will be correct. I am also stopping with the nuclear stuff unless we get new corroborated info.
I used Anton Kuprin's name for a reason, he is the captain of the Moskva who died with the ship last year. The Russian narrative after the incident is that not only was he alive, but russian media posted a video of him trying to discredit reports of his demise along with the ship.
This Shoigu video did not happen yesterday.
Prominent Russian telegram source which has been making the rounds. The video you just see was specifically released in attempted discredit that rumour.
We just had a mutiny / coup against Russia that suddenly stopped cold. Giving any type of credibility or validation to this mutiny attempt is sure to be seen as extremely negative for Putin.
Does that sound like a man who is defeated? Sounds like he got what he wanted. His mercenary force is intact. And a protest demonstration that destroyed 7 aircraft sounds like quite the demonstration.
This is where Shoigu comes in. If you start suddenly seeing Dyumin making headway above Shoigu, my hypothesis that the Kremlin blinked first and gave Prighozin what he wanted will be correct. I am also stopping with the nuclear stuff unless we get new corroborated info.
To put that in perspective, Ukraine destroys very roughly about one combat aircraft or helicopter per three days of war. So yeah, those are serious losses for Russia.
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At this point, everyone should just acknowledge that it's very difficult to trust anywhere with a high level of confidence on the details of what's happening in this conflict. There's too much incentive for secrecy, misinformation, disinformation, and other misleading propaganda on all sides. All parties involved in this conflict have the means, motives, and many opportunities to disseminate misinformation that harms opponents, and there are few incentives to be transparent and honest.
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It makes sense that it was more of a protest than a coup, but it was still mutiny. The fact that a lot of the regular military joined or was complicit in the action shows that Putin's grip is not as strong as once thought. The door has been cracked open.
It makes sense that it was more of a protest than a coup, but it was still mutiny. The fact that a lot of the regular military joined or was complicit in the action shows that Putin's grip is not as strong as once thought. The door has been cracked open.
I read somewhere that 5 of Putin's 12 closest allies in government fled Moscow and thought that was it for their government. It must be kind of awkward around the office this week... lol. For Putin, I guess you find out who your real friends are in those times.
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Is this like Pointman said, to put Wagner in charge of Belarus? Then the Belarusian army attacks Ukraine? Couldn't this spark another war in Belarus?
Or is Putin actually banishing them? What about all of their operations in Africa? How does Putin possibly expect to succeed in Ukraine without Wagner?
I read somewhere that 5 of Putin's 12 closest allies in government fled Moscow and thought that was it for their government. It must be kind of awkward around the office this week... lol. For Putin, I guess you find out who your real friends are in those times.
Those 5 today...probably.
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Is this like Pointman said, to put Wagner in charge of Belarus? Then the Belarusian army attacks Ukraine? Couldn't this spark another war in Belarus?
Or is Putin actually banishing them? What about all of their operations in Africa? How does Putin possibly expect to succeed in Ukraine without Wagner?
Prigozhin may be allowed to take a small amount of units with him to Belarus, but the vast majority will come under the command of the Russian military, likely to be transformed into a special unit akin to the French foreign legion as an example.
Prigozhin has no real military experience and was always more of a loudmouth figurehead than anything else. Wagner's actual military commanders have always been structured through the GRU and military intelligence anyways.
Last edited by FunkMasterFlame; 06-26-2023 at 02:01 PM.
Prigozhin may be allowed to take a small amount of units with him to Belarus, but the vast majority will come under the command of the Russian military, likely to be transformed into a special unit akin to the French foreign legion as an example.
I admittedly know little about Wagner's chain of command, but is that an option? Will those troops just willingly make that change and accept Russian authority? I guess they have to?
Prigozhin may be allowed to take a small amount of units with him to Belarus, but the vast majority will come under the command of the Russian military, likely to be transformed into a special unit akin to the French foreign legion as an example.
Where did you see this?
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I admittedly know little about Wagner's chain of command, but is that an option? Will those troops just willingly make that change and accept Russian authority? I guess they have to?
Putin decreed earlier in June that all PMC's would need to sign a contract with the Russian government. Prigozhin refused at the time, which is probably what precipitated this latest outburst.
President Vladimir Putin says it’s time to legalize Russia’s private military companies, in accordance with “common sense, existing practices, and the law.” The president expects Russia’s PMCs to become government contractors “as soon as possible.”
During a meeting with war bloggers, Putin said this is the only way the government can offer social guarantees for the mercenaries, “because if there’s no contract with the state and the Defense Ministry, there’s no legal basis for social guarantees from the state.” “This needs to be done as soon as possible,” Putin said about the PMC reform.
The president noted that “certain changes” will be made to the Russian laws to help legalize the so-called “volunteer formations.”
Earlier, Russia’s Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu issued an order for private military companies to sign contracts with the Defense Ministry. In response, Wagner Group’s founder Evgeny Prigozhin said that his mercenaries won’t sign any contracts with the government, inviting all mercenaries currently serving in other PMCs to join Wagner forces if they don’t like the idea of signing a contract with the Defense Ministry.
Interesting to see how the Kremlin is discussing this on Russian TV.
Seems like we should expect reprisals against the perpetrators.
I find it interesting they talk about 1917 and portray it as a disaster, that the revolution stopped Russia as it was on the verge of defeating Germany
Putin says Wagner mercenaries can join the regular army, go home or go to Belarus.
Uhhh... I'm not sure I understand the second option (or the third, to be fair).
Firstly, aren't most of these people convicted felons? They can just go home? Wouldn't they all pick this option?
Secondly, Russia is hurting for manpower and is trying to avoid more conscription since the last round saw twice as many men leave the country than join the army. So it's hard to believe they're just going to let the cannon fodder go home.
Sounds like a trap.
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Putin says Wagner mercenaries can join the regular army, go home or go to Belarus.
Uhhh... I'm not sure I understand the second option (or the third, to be fair).
Firstly, aren't most of these people convicted felons? They can just go home? Wouldn't they all pick this option?
Secondly, Russia is hurting for manpower and is trying to avoid more conscription since the last round saw twice as many men leave the country than join the army. So it's hard to believe they're just going to let the cannon fodder go home.
Sounds like a trap.
My thinking is that Putin needs the man power and these are the guys left who refuse to sign with the MoD. In Belarus maybe he can get them back under control after eventually disposing with Prigozhin?
