Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[chemgear]

The Calgary numbers for July are in. I trust/hope the actual pertinent numbers are of interest and add to the discussion thread.

As referenced previously, Mike Fotiou has a nice summary (and daily numbers to boot on a very helpful site):

http://calgaryrealestatereview.com




The month-end median price was $400,000

• down 4.5% from last month
• up 2.6% from last July
• Trivia: the $18,900 is the largest month-over-month drop using Metro-Calgary SFH stats which go back to 2002.

The month-end average price was $464,655

• down 3.6% from last month (4.4% excluding the $4.2M home)
• up 6.4% from last July (5.4% excluding the $4.2M home)
• Trivia: without the sale of the $4.2M home, average price would have been $460,568

There were 915 sales in July

• down 13.8% from last month
• down 42% from last July

And here are the official numbers/news release from the Calgary Real Estate Board (nice graphical representations):

http://www.creb.com/public/documents/statistics/2010/package/res-stats-2010%20July.pdf

“We are seeing relative stability in our average and median prices for the Calgary market,” says Stante. “A gradual return to moderate interest rates will not trigger any kind of steep decline in prices in our housing market. Prices may soften in select markets where inventory has bulked up, but for the most part they will remain relatively sticky as the economy improves.”

[chemgear]

The Real Estate Investment Network sees Calgary as the leading city in Canada.

http://www.financialpost.com/Where+c...599/story.html

I'm not overly familiar with REIN and I can't seem to find the specific report on their website to see their methodology/numbers. Doesn't mean it's not right though - probably just means I suck at browsing their website.

[AFireInside]

Originally Posted by chemgear

The Real Estate Investment Network sees Calgary as the leading city in Canada.

http://www.financialpost.com/Where+c...599/story.html

I'm not overly familiar with REIN and I can't seem to find the specific report on their website to see their methodology/numbers. Doesn't mean it's not right though - probably just means I suck at browsing their website.

If they are using predictions made by the CMHC as their basis then I'm already questioning their predictions!

[Skyceman]

Canada sees 'dramatic' housing slowdown, global report says

"The recent slowdown has been most dramatic in Canada," Warren noted. "Average home prices in (the second quarter) were up just 6.8 per cent year-over-year, compared with 16.6 per cent year-over-year in (the first quarter). Sales, while still at a high level, have trended steadily lower alongside reduced affordability and exhausted pent-up demand."

For instance, figures from the Canadian Real Estate Association released last month showed seasonally adjusted national home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service Systems fall 8.2 per cent in June from the previous month. Sales fell in almost 70 per cent of local markets.


Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/busines...#ixzz0wD8wegXB

[chemgear]

I thought this wasn't supposed to happen in Canada with the banks so much more responsible than in the US?

http://www.globaltvedmonton.com/vide...4CXuOFmBT1lRxo

Glad it was a happy ending for the family though.

(. . . not that kind of happy ending . . . )

[Dan02]

Originally Posted by chemgear

I thought this wasn't supposed to happen in Canada with the banks so much more responsible than in the US?

http://www.globaltvedmonton.com/vide...4CXuOFmBT1lRxo

Glad it was a happy ending for the family though.

(. . . not that kind of happy ending . . . )

You are aware Wells Fargo is a American bank who self insured the mortgages to avoid CMHC requirements right? Ohh and coincidently they've left the Canadian market now.

[flamesaresmokin]

Originally Posted by troutman

Some realtors tell me 10%.

If your realtor can predict the real estate market and is still a realtor i'd start to question the persons intelligence. The only sure thing right now is that its not going down considerably over the next while.

Plain and simple there is no way to predict the market. Do your homework before you buy.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Dan02

You are aware Wells Fargo is a American bank who self insured the mortgages to avoid CMHC requirements right? Ohh and coincidently they've left the Canadian market now.

Here's to hoping that's a small portion of the Canadian market, glad that family got it sorted out.

[chemgear]

Canada wide numbers for July recently out:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle1674181/

Here is CREA's news release:

http://creanews.ca/

I'm not sure about HST effect though, it seems like the sales drop was pretty consistent across most cities even those outside BC/ONT.

As always, Mike Fotiou has some nice summaries on his blog - inventory looks to be coming down, though rather slowly:

http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/

[cral12]

Anyone read Garth Turner's blog:
http://www.greaterfool.ca/

[pepper24]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Canada wide numbers for July recently out:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle1674181/

Sales down 30% across Canada compared to July last summer. Calgary is even worse at 40%. The worst in Canada. Ouch. Not suprising to me to say the least. Prices the last 5 years have jumped too much and I think it'll be more than a minor correction. Perfect storm is just starting.

[pepper24]

Originally Posted by flamesaresmokin

If your realtor can predict the real estate market and is still a realtor i'd start to question the persons intelligence. The only sure thing right now is that its not going down considerably over the next while.

Plain and simple there is no way to predict the market. Do your homework before you buy.

Agreed, be wary of anyone getting paid commission trying to tell you where prices are headed.

Short term it's tough to predict the real estate market but long term it's consistent that real estate paces with inflation.

[1stLand]

Originally Posted by pepper24

Agreed, be wary of anyone getting paid commission trying to tell you where prices are headed.

Short term it's tough to predict the real estate market but long term it's consistent that real estate paces with inflation.

I am a Realtor and I have an idea of where the market is headed.

But why would I give free advice on a public message board?



But here is a hint, Look at a few things:

Inventory out there vs absorption rates, interest rates, economy of alberta, in migration vs out-migration, job creation.

If you want honest advice whether you are buying or selling, you can always PM me.

[username]

I love it when a realtor claims they will give you "honest" advice. What realtor is going to tell anyone to wait a couple of years to buy or sell? None. They have too much to personally gain by giving advice that favours them not you the buyer or seller.

95% of realtors have maybe a few months of education, none of it related to the economics of the real estate market. So with all do respect to all the agents on this board, please keep your biased opinons PM's only. If someone wants real adivce on real estate, do some research and talk to actual economists with actual degrees/phd's etc who specialize in real estate.

[Mike Oxlong]

Originally Posted by username

I love it when a realtor claims they will give you "honest" advice. What realtor is going to tell anyone to wait a couple of years to buy or sell? None. They have too much to personally gain by giving advice that favours them not you the buyer or seller.

95% of realtors have maybe a few months of education, none of it related to the economics of the real estate market. So with all do respect to all the agents on this board, please keep your biased opinons PM's only. If someone wants real adivce on real estate, do some research and talk to actual economists with actual degrees/phd's etc who specialize in real estate.

So all the chicken littles who keep preaching the sky is falling and the Real Estate bubbles are ready to burst can continue to freely preach their opinions publicly on the board?

How many months of education, degrees and PHD's do the nay sayers have on Real Estate economics?
Why are they free to voice their opinion but Realtors who work in the market every day and see what is happening with inventory, prices, buyers, and stats are supposed to keep opinions to themselves or in PM's?

Realtors get a bad rap. Sure there are some out there that would do anything to make a buck but there are people like that in every industry. The majority of realtors I work with and align myself with including members of this board are far from the slime balls people paint them out to be.

There is not going to be a big real estate crash. Sure there will be small corrections here and there and prices will increase, decrease and increase again, it's all cyclical. The big correction happened when prices increased rapidly 4 years ago. Calgary was an undervalued market at that point. Now after such a sharp rise in prices we are seeing waves of increases and decreases as the market tries to stabilize.

It's hard for anyone to predict where the market will go. Regardless if you are and Econiomist with a PHD or a Realtor. How many of these so called economist's predicted what happened in the US? (A few but not many)

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by username

I love it when a realtor claims they will give you "honest" advice. What realtor is going to tell anyone to wait a couple of years to buy or sell? None. They have too much to personally gain by giving advice that favours them not you the buyer or seller.

95% of realtors have maybe a few months of education, none of it related to the economics of the real estate market. So with all do respect to all the agents on this board, please keep your biased opinons PM's only. If someone wants real adivce on real estate, do some research and talk to actual economists with actual degrees/phd's etc who specialize in real estate.

Isn't that a little harsh. . . ?

I see where you might be coming from, but isn't the point of having this thread to "discuss" various views of Calgary real estate? Bull or bear/up or down? And to be fair, a full time realtor should have much more experience with real estate than most people(certainly me.) Perhaps their "inside voice" opinion might be different than their public/published view though.

I'm just a numbers guy and I'll be first to admit that I'm no expert . . . and that full time realtors must have more experience than me.

[Mike Oxlong]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Isn't that a little harsh. . . ?

I see where you might be coming from, but isn't the point of having this thread to "discuss" various views of Calgary real estate? Bull or bear/up or down? And to be fair, a full time realtor should have much more experience with real estate than most people(certainly me.) Perhaps their "insie voice" opinion might be different than their public/published view though.

I'm just a numbers guy and I'll be first to admit that I'm no expert . . . and that full time realtors must have more experience than me.

Didn't think I would be thanking any of your posts in this thread, but you are right on the mark this time.

[Potty]

Originally Posted by Mike Oxlong

There is not going to be a big real estate crash. Sure there will be small corrections here and there and prices will increase, decrease and increase again, it's all cyclical. The big correction happened when prices increased rapidly 4 years ago. Calgary was an undervalued market at that point. Now after such a sharp rise in prices we are seeing waves of increases and decreases as the market tries to stabilize.

It's hard for anyone to predict where the market will go. Regardless if you are and Econiomist with a PHD or a Realtor. How many of these so called economist's predicted what happened in the US? (A few but not many)

This stands out to me, I think you're bang on with the second bolded quote, there is so much involved in predicting the direction of the real estate market that I don't think anyone can predict with certainty what will happen. Which is what you did with the first bolded statement.

[automaton 3]

Originally Posted by username

I love it when a realtor claims they will give you "honest" advice. What realtor is going to tell anyone to wait a couple of years to buy or sell? None. They have too much to personally gain by giving advice that favours them not you the buyer or seller.

95% of realtors have maybe a few months of education, none of it related to the economics of the real estate market. So with all do respect to all the agents on this board, please keep your biased opinons PM's only. If someone wants real adivce on real estate, do some research and talk to actual economists with actual degrees/phd's etc who specialize in real estate.

Not trying to pile on here, but that is pretty unfair. Are there realtors out there as you describe, yep for sure. Most of them don't last long from what I've seen.

The majority of realtors that I know and deal with take a longer term view of things as they are dependant on your repeat business and referrals from friends and family.

[Old Yeller]

Considering this is a message thread on Calgary real estate on a Calgary based board, I come here for the varying opinions/arguments set forth... regardless of whether you're a realtor or just some guy with an opinion on the current market.

It helps my decision making process.