2021 NHL Draft

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Bingo

You do it if you are happy with any of X number of players and the gap of picks is less than the happy list.

Or if you don't have faith any of the plyers left have much of a shot so you might as well get more darts to throw.

I think quite often when 1st round picks get traded up or down, it's because one team thinks there are only a couple of players left worth picking and the other team doesn't see anyone to get excited about.

I would love to see some analysis of how those trades usually work out. My gut tells me that most of the time, neither team really wins or loses much.

[CASe333]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Or if you don't have faith any of the plyers left have much of a shot so you might as well get more darts to throw.

I think quite often when 1st round picks get traded up or down, it's because one team thinks there are only a couple of players left worth picking and the other team doesn't see anyone to get excited about.

I would love to see some analysis of how those trades usually work out. My gut tells me that most of the time, neither team really wins or loses much.

Sometimes there is a clear winner and trading down has worked out big a few times in the last decade. There are a bunch of examples from 2010 draft. Here is a summary of first round trade down/ups I found notable since 2010. I've noted total nhl games played for each pick along with total points or NGP (no games played in NHL).

2010

Panthers Trade Down/Kings Up
Panthers Traded • 2010 first round pick (#15-Derek Forbort 331gp, 65pts) to Kings for • 2010 first round pick (#19-Nick Bjugstad 483gp, 224pts) • 2010 second round pick (#59-Jason Zucker 509gp, 273 pts) on 2010-06-25

Panthers kills this trading down and getting two NHL players that are around 0.5pts/game vs a serviceable defenceman.


Arizona trade down/Montreal Up
Arizona Traded • 2010 first round pick (#22-Jarred Tinordi (NHL 102 gp, 12pts) • 2010 fourth round pick (#113-Mark MacMillan NGP) to Canadiens for • 2010 first round pick (#27-Mark Visentin NGP) • 2010 second round pick (#57-Oscar Lindberg gp 252, 79pts) on 2010-06-25

Edge to Arizona picking Oscar Lindberg with their 2nd round pick. Noteworthy Lindberg played no games for Arizona and he was traded to NYR for Ethan Werek so Arizona still managed to get nothing out of this.


Chicago trade down/NY Islanders Up
Chicago Traded • 2010 first round pick (#30-Brock Nelson 604gp, 328pts) to Islanders for • 2010 second round pick (#35-Ludvig Rensfeldt NGP) • 2010 second round pick (#58-Kent Simpson 1gp) on 2010-06-25

Clear win for NYI trading up to get Brock Nelson.


Slightly different example since picks from different years but along similar premises from 2010 draft:
Ottawa trades 2010 pick #16 Vladmir Tarasenko 531gp, 442pts for 2009 pick #17 David Runblad 113gp, 25pts.
Ouch!!!


2011

Ducks trade down/Leafs up
Ducks Traded • 2011 first round pick (#22-Tyler Biggs NGP) to Maple Leafs for • 2011 first round pick (#30-Rickard Rakell 499 gp, 311pts) • 2011 second round pick (#39-John Gibson 328gp, 148 wins) on 2011-06-24

Wow that ones is particularly bad for leafs trading up. All star goalie and all star right wing and they get nothing serviceable in return! Trading down wigs big again.


Senators trade down/Wings Up
Senators Traded • 2011 second round pick (#35-Tomas Jurco 221gp, 53pts) • 2011 second round pick (#48-Xavier Ouellet 178gp, 28pts) to Red Wings for • 2011 first round pick (#24-Matt Puempel 87gp, 16pts) on 2011-06-24

Edge Wings but nothing too exciting.


2012

Flames trade down/Sabres up
Flames Traded • 2012 first round pick (#14-Zemgus Girgensons 489gp, 138pts) to Sabres for • 2012 first round pick (#21-Mark Jankowski 253gp, 75pts) • 2012 second round pick (#42-Patrick Sieloff 2gp, 2pts) on 2012-06-22

Flames wins this clearly with Sieloff a 1pt per game average. Joking aside in the end edge goes to Sabres but nothing to get excited about.


2013

Wings trade down/Sharks Up
Wings Traded • 2013 first round pick (#18-Mirco Mueller 185gp, 28pts) to Sharks for • 2013 first round pick (#20-Anthony Mantha 316gp. 202pts) • 2013 second round pick (#58-Tyler Bertuzzi 208gp, 126 pts) on 2013-06-30

Pretty big win for Wings trading down to get two potential all stars (Bertuzzi has been all-star already 2020).


2014

Sharks trade down/Hawks up
Sharks Traded • 2014 first round pick (#20-Nick Schmaltz 301gp, 182 pts) • 2014 sixth round pick (#179-Ivan Nalimov NGP) to Blackhawks for • 2014 first round pick (#27-Nikolay Goldobin 125gp, 46pts) • 2014 third round pick (#62-Justin Kirkland NGP) on 2014-06-27

Clear edge to Hawks at this point but I suspect Nick Schmaltz totals overinflated playing with Kane and in the end after all careers are finished this turns out to be closer to a wash.

No examples in 2015 then I think 2016 draft is too recent for many of the picks to have played in NHL so hard to evaluate.

Out of these examples from 2010-2014 trading down netted huge returns in three of the trades. There is one example (two if you count Schmaltz trade) where trading up has shown to be a major win. The other trades (~3) are closer to a wash.

If I'm bored later I'll look at 2005-2009 drafts. These retrospective analyses are always fun to look at.

[GioforPM]

^^ Thing is, you can’t just go with the player actually picked to tell if it was a good idea. For example, with the Flames, not only did they bypass Zemgus, but also Ceci, Wilson, Hertl, Teravainen and Vasilevsky (and Laughton but he’s about like Zemgus - small improvement only). The fact Buffalo picked the biggest dud of the players in that zone is their fault.

[CASe333]

Three more years to look at. There were a few convoluted trades involving three teams and I've had a few beers so this might be a bit more messy. There were a few big wins for teams trading up (Karlsson, Couture and Myers). The Leddy, Bailey and Backlund trades were win's for respective teams trading down.

2009

Wild trade down/NY Isles up
Wild Traded • 2009 first round pick (#12-Calvin de Haan 451gp, 111pts) to Islanders for • 2009 first round pick (#16-Nick Leddy 776gp, 336pts) • 2009 third round pick (#77-Matt Hackett NGP) • 2009 seventh round pick (#181-Erik Haula 456gp, 196pts) on 2009-06-26

Nick Leddy is the best player here by a mile so Wild win this trade especially since they picked Haula in the 7th round. Note Nick Leddy never played a game with Wild though and was traded to Chicago for Cam Barker. Big win for trading down here.


Ducks trade down/Jackets Up
Ducks Traded • 2009 first round pick (#21-John Moore 537gp, 117pts) to Blue Jackets for • 2009 first round pick (#26-Kyle Palmieri 612gp, 359pts) • 2009 second round pick (#37-Mat Clark) on 2009-06-26

John Moore has been an ok defenceman but edge to Ducks for Kyle Palmieri pick with more games played and over 0.5pts/game. Always hard to compare d men with forward totals.


Flames trade down/Devils Up
Flames Traded • 2009 first round pick (#20-Jacob Josefson 315gp, 64pts) to Devils for • 2009 first round pick (#23-Tim Erixon 93gp, 14pts) • 2009 third round pick (#84-Nicolas Deslauriers 425gp, 72pts) on 2009-06-26

Wash. Nicolas Deslauriers pick was flipped by flames for #74 pick Ryan Howse. Pretty convoluted trade to evaluate but no one exciting was picked in the end so in my opinion this is a wash.


2008

Leafs Trade Up/NY Isles down
Islanders Traded • 2008 first round pick (#5-Luke Schenn 797gp, 152 pts) to Maple Leafs for • 2008 first round pick (#7-Colin Wilson 632gp, 286pts) • Islanders choice of either a) 2008 second round pick and 2009 third round pick or b) 2008 third round pick and 2009 second round pick (2008 #68-Shawn Lalonde) (2009 #37-Mat Clark) on 2008-06-20

Edge to Toronto as Schenn was decent defenceman who has way more games played than Wilson. Also of note the Islanders didn’t pick Wilson and that pick was further traded down again for Josh Bailey who was in my opinion the best player picked out of these picks (see trade below). So trading down worked well for Islanders but wasn’t bad for any of the teams involved really.


Islanders trade down/Predators Up
Islanders Traded • 2008 first round pick (#7-Colin Wilson 632gp, 286pts) to Predators for • 2008 first round pick (#9-Josh Bailey 919gp, 511pts) • 2008 second round pick (#40-Aaron Ness 72gp, 7pts) on 2008-06-20

Islanders win trading down eventually picking Josh Bailey who was the best player picked.


This is all fairly convoluted so I’ll just lump these together:

Ducks trade down/Kings Up
Ducks Traded • 2008 first round pick (#12-Tyler Myers 758gp, 307pts) to Kings for • 2008 first round pick (#17-Jake Gardiner 645gp, 277pts) • 2008 first round pick (#28-Viktor Tikhonov NGP) on 2008-06-20

Kings trade Down/Sabres Up
Kings Traded • 2008 first round pick (#12-Tyler Myers 758gp, 307 pts) to Sabres for • 2008 first round pick (#13-Colten Teubert 24gp, 1pts) • 2009 third round pick (#74-Ryan Howse NGP) on 2008-06-20

Losers: Kings, Winners: Buffalo trading up. Ducks did ok trading down to get Gardiner who never played a game for them but eventually traded with Lupul to Leafs for Beauchemin. Of note the Gardiner pick was originally the Flames but they traded that pick in the Cammalleri trade with the Kings.


Predators trade down/Sens Up
Preds Traded • 2008 first round pick (#15-Erik Karlsson 788gp, 482pts) to Senators for • 2008 first round pick (#18-Chet Pickard NGP) • 2009 third round pick (#70-Taylor Beck NGP) on 2008-06-20
Big big win for Senators trading up.

Another 3 way:

Devils trade down/Caps up
Devils Traded • 2008 first round pick (#21-Anton Gustafsson NGP) to Capitals for • 2008 first round pick (#23-Tyler Cuma 1gp) • 2008 second round pick (#54-Patrice Cormier 52gp, 5pts) on 2008-06-20

Devils trade down/Wild Up
Devils Traded • 2008 first round pick (#23-Tyler Cuma) to Wild for • 2008 first round pick (#24-Mattias Tedenby 120gp 30pts) • 2009 third round pick (#73-Alexander Urbom NGP) on 2008-06-20

Big wash. No one picked anybody worth getting excited about. All three teams were losers considering #26 Tyler Ennis, #27 John Carlson, #31 Jacob Markstrom, and #34 Jake Allen were still all available.


2007

Blues trade down/Sharks up
Blues Traded • 2007 first round pick (#9-Logan Couture 768gp, 577pts) to Sharks for • 2007 first round pick (#13-Lars Eller 798gp, 317pts) • 2007 second round pick (#44-Aaron Palushaj NGP) • 2008 third round pick (#87-Ian Schultz NGP) on 2007-06-22

Win for Sharks for trading up. Lars Eller has been good too but none of the additions did anything so big win for Sharks.


Ducks trade down/Wild Up
Ducks Traded • 2007 first round pick (#16-Colton Gillies 154gp, 18pts) to Wild for • 2007 first round pick (#19-Logan MacMillan NGP) • 2007 second round pick (#42-Eric Tangradi 150gp, 16pts) on 2007-06-22
Complete wash.


Flames trade down/Blues Up
Flames Traded • 2007 first round pick (#18-Ian Cole 595gp, 146pts) to Blues for • 2007 first round pick (#24-Mikael Backlund 744gp, 397pts) • 2007 third round pick (#70-John Negrin 3gp, 1pts) on 2007-06-22

Win goes to Flames but not by huge margin as Ian Cloe has been decent defenceman.

Coyotes trade down/Oilers Up
Coyotes Traded • 2007 first round pick (#21-Riley Nash 578gp, 172pts) to Oilers for • 2007 first round pick (#30-Nick Ross NGP) • 2007 second round pick (#36-Joel Gistedt NGP) on 2007-06-22

Oilers win this hands down trading up but in true Oilers fashion they later trade Riley Nash for a second round pick in 2010 for #46 pick Martin Marincin. If that’s not bad enough of a trade they later traded Marincin for Bob Ross and 2015 4th rd pick which both amounted to nothing. That's some good asset management.

[CASe333]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

^^ Thing is, you can’t just go with the player actually picked to tell if it was a good idea. For example, with the Flames, not only did they bypass Zemgus, but also Ceci, Wilson, Hertl, Teravainen and Vasilevsky (and Laughton but he’s about like Zemgus - small improvement only). The fact Buffalo picked the biggest dud of the players in that zone is their fault.

But with this mindset you can go through every draft and find the gems picked in the later rounds and say every team were idiots for picking duds earlier. For simplicity its easiest just to see what players teams actually picked for the draft position traded for. If you look I didn't even follow if that team actually used the later pick and it was often flipped for someone else. Things become very convoluted very fast and it would be even worse if you considered all of the good players picked later. A good example is 2008 where three teams traded up or down picking no names and only a few picks later studs picked included #26 Tyler Ennis, #27 John Carlson, #31 Jacob Markstrom, and #34 Jake Allen. Anyways point being is I agree with the sentiment but good luck trying to compile that data in a meaningful way.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by CASe333

But with this mindset you can go through every draft and find the gems picked in the later rounds and say every team were idiots for picking duds earlier. For simplicity its easiest just to see what players teams actually picked for the draft position traded for. If you look I didn't even follow if that team actually used the later pick and it was often flipped for someone else. Things become very convoluted very fast and it would be even worse if you considered all of the good players picked later. A good example is 2008 where three teams traded up or down picking no names and only a few picks later studs picked included #26 Tyler Ennis, #27 John Carlson, #31 Jacob Markstrom, and #34 Jake Allen. Anyways point being is I agree with the sentiment but good luck trying to compile that data in a meaningful way.

Those guys weren’t “later rounds”. They were a grouping of 4-5 very solid picks. It’s more a criticism of Calgary for not only dropping, but then drafting a guy they could have easily gotten in the 2nd round.

[Ped]

Wild Traded • 2009 first round pick (#12-Calvin de Haan 451gp, 111pts) to Islanders for • 2009 first round pick (#16-Nick Leddy 776gp, 336pts) • 2009 third round pick (#77-Matt Hackett NGP) • 2009 seventh round pick (#181-Erik Haula 456gp, 196pts) on 2009-06-26

Nick Leddy is the best player here by a mile so Wild win this trade especially since they picked Haula in the 7th round. Note Nick Leddy never played a game with Wild though and was traded to Chicago for Cam Barker. Big win for trading down here.

Think you might be misremembering here. Leddy was traded along with Kim Johnsson for Barker, who had all of 12 points in 71 games for Minnesota, was waived, and then was bought out. He played all of 39 more games in the NHL with four points and then headed to the KHL.


Leddy was the best player, but it cost them Johnsson to get an inferior player, while deHaan played over 300 games with the Isles before leaving as a free agent.

[CASe333]

Originally Posted by Ped

Think you might be misremembering here. Leddy was traded along with Kim Johnsson for Barker, who had all of 12 points in 71 games for Minnesota, was waived, and then was bought out. He played all of 39 more games in the NHL with four points and then headed to the KHL.


Leddy was the best player, but it cost them Johnsson to get an inferior player, while deHaan played over 300 games with the Isles before leaving as a free agent.

I copied and pasted who the players were from each trade up/down with their stats and then made data comparison based on that. What happened after or what could have been was not taken into account.

You are 100% correct noting Minnesota trading Leddy for Barker was a huge blunder but I was just trying to focus on the original draft up/down trades as things got convoluted fast when taking into should have or why the eff did they do this after.

[CASe333]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Those guys weren’t “later rounds”. They were a grouping of 4-5 very solid picks. It’s more a criticism of Calgary for not only dropping, but then drafting a guy they could have easily gotten in the 2nd round.

Huh? I wasn't even trying to bring Calgary up with 2008. Sticking to the original question I was just showing how a bunch of teams traded up/down and still picked duds right before a bunch of studs got picked.

Trying to argue would have should have is pointless. I was only trying to evaluate whether trading up or down is good/bad. What happened after is probably important big picture but lets just focus on the question bolded.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by CASe333

Huh? I wasn't even trying to bring Calgary up with 2008. Sticking to the original question I was just showing how a bunch of teams traded up/down and still picked duds right before a bunch of studs got picked.

Trying to argue would have should have is pointless. I was only trying to evaluate whether trading up or down is good/bad. What happened after is probably important big picture but lets just focus on the question bolded.

My point is you can’t look at who was picked on each side to tell anything about whether trading up or down is good or bad. Why? Because teams can make bad picks. You can find even more examples of teams that didn’t trade down, yet picked worse players than teams that picked afterwards.

Sorry, but all the work you put in really sheds no light on the bolded question you are trying to answer.

If a team trades up to get the player they wanted, but that player turns out bad, that’s a scouting issue, not a draft strategy issue. Likewise if a team trades down because they guy they want, or the group of acceptable guys, will still be available, it’s a good decision. But maybe bad scouting.

Example: trading down to take Jankowski versus Girgunson = bad. But what if they took, say Parayko? Or Anderson? Then it’s a good decision? It all depends on luck and scouting, so the actual decision to trade up or down is really dependant not on that strategy, but how good your scouting is, just like drafting without doing that.

[FlamesAddiction]

The 2004 draft still strikes me as funny. Flames traded down and the speculation at the time was that Zajac was their guy and they were convinced he would drop. Zajac went on the very next pick and the Flames drafted his teammate Chucko instead. I don't think anyone had Chucko going that early and it seemed like the Flames scrambled and picked a prospect they were familiar with having heavily scouted Salmon Arm. Maybe Chucko was their guy the whole time, but it seemed suspect.

We then traded the 2nd rounder acquired for moving down, for two 3rd rounders and actually did OK with those picks (Prust and Boyd).

But we did potentially pass up on some much better players for trading down.

[Poe969]

Trading up makes more sense IMO. Now that everyone is so heavily scouted and there is so much info on everyone, I think it's better to target a player and do what it takes to get them then to get an extra pick and take one of who is left.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Poe969

Trading up makes more sense IMO. Now that everyone is so heavily scouted and there is so much info on everyone, I think it's better to target a player and do what it takes to get them then to get an extra pick and take one of who is left.

Depends where you are - bottom half of the first round and on, its way more likely you have a group of players you value equally. If that’s the case, why not get one of them plus a second round pick.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by Poe969

Trading up makes more sense IMO. Now that everyone is so heavily scouted and there is so much info on everyone, I think it's better to target a player and do what it takes to get them then to get an extra pick and take one of who is left.

I agree. Would love flames to trade up to get Kent johnson

[Poe969]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Depends where you are - bottom half of the first round and on, its way more likely you have a group of players you value equally. If that’s the case, why not get one of them plus a second round pick.

Agree, I just mean for the Flames since they're usually drafting in the mid teens. Trading down and trying to be the smartest person in the room usually blows up in your face....like when they could have had vashilevski instead of Janko.

If the best goalie in the draft is in the first round and you have a chance to get him...GET HIM!!

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Poe969

Agree, I just mean for the Flames since they're usually drafting in the mid teens. Trading down and trying to be the smartest person in the room usually blows up in your face....like when they could have had vashilevski instead of Janko.

If the best goalie in the draft is in the first round and you have a chance to get him...GET HIM!!

Well, that was just idiotic. Though I shy away from goalies. But Hertl would have been nice, or Wilson, or Teravainen, or Ceci

[CASe333]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

My point is you can’t look at who was picked on each side to tell anything about whether trading up or down is good or bad. Why? Because teams can make bad picks. You can find even more examples of teams that didn’t trade down, yet picked worse players than teams that picked afterwards.

Sorry, but all the work you put in really sheds no light on the bolded question you are trying to answer.

No sorry you are missing the point that I am only using data to show what actually happened. I am not trying to answer what should have or could have happened I only took the time to show what did happen.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by kyuss275

I agree. Would love flames to trade up to get Kent johnson

I am far from an expert, but I was curious about Berniers and watched some videos and in almost all of his highlights, Johnson looks like the guy making the magic happen. He seems like a really exciting player.

Does anyone know much about Noah Serdachny? He was ranked 208th by CSS, but sounds like he would be a great dark horse pick in a later round. Decent size, great hands, fast, and known to be a clutch player.



The draw back being that the BCHL isn't a great measuring stick. His father was a skills/skating coach for the No-Goods up north between 2006 an 2015, and runs power skating camps. He just committed to Colorado College, which might be a good development path (they produced Jaccob Slavin), but I don't know if their program is good. Seems like the kind of "swing for the fences" long-term development path pick you should entertain in later rounds.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by CASe333

No sorry you are missing the point that I am only using data to show what actually happened. I am not trying to answer what should have or could have happened I only took the time to show what did happen.

You literally said you were trying to see if it’s good or bad to trade up or down. And I’m saying you can’t tell from history because it all depends if your team is good at scouting or not.

[CASe333]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

You literally said you were trying to see if it’s good or bad to trade up or down. And I’m saying you can’t tell from history because it all depends if your team is good at scouting or not.

Yep I completely agree with your history comment but my original point was I'm just trying to focus on the first initial trade of trading up and down in first round and it seems obvious only to compare the initial players stats, reasonable? What would you compare?