Stocks - The Best Buys 2

[Leondros]

Man Canadian energy is getting pounded. Suncor ~$15 is crazy and CNQ is pushing sub $20. Even Enbridge is falling more than I thought it would.

If I didn't have the value of my house, my stock options, my bonus, and my salary all attached to the industry, I would be putting some money on those big Canadian names (ie. ENB, CNQ, SU).

[wwkayaker]

I’ve been watching SU and thinking about buying more and averaging down. I’m hesitant to do it though.

[Flacker]

Originally Posted by wwkayaker

I’ve been watching SU and thinking about buying more and averaging down. I’m hesitant to do it though.

I bought a bunch of SU in the mid $17 range as some long money in my TFSA. I think the entire industry is oversold, and when normal demand returns, SU seems well positioned.

[burn_this_city]

Suncor hasn't been this low since 2003.

[JR449]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Suncor hasn't been this low since 2003.

Might go lower

[DoubleK]

Limit down tomorrow?

[MJK]

How bad will the market react today to Trump having COVID-19?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/02/inves...cks/index.html

[bluejays]

My not so humble opinion, I don’t think too bad initially. Now, if it gets worse over the next few days, I could see a small dip. But since April or so have the markets truly overreacted negatively to much? Nope. Plus conspiratorially I think if things ever got bad they’d just give him a test treatment at his age. I don’t think there’s much downside here personally.

[DoubleK]

Bad jobs report too. Probably gonna be down 2+%

[bomber317]

I would suggest not investing into O&G long term.

yes, all signs might point to oversold however the overall global sentiment is big shift away from O&G.

Institutional funds are now having mandates to not invest in O&G. Just overall less money into the sector.

Even the uptick in retail investors with Robinhood / wallstreetbets fad, none of that was targeting O&G

Is it fair? nope, especially when you see single digit P/E ratios for some energy companies like Suncor. And then you compare that to even a large tech like AAPL at 30-40x PE. I just pulled PE out to give a comparison, but you can pick any metric.

There is definitely volatility though, so you can play the range game to make some short term moves and make money that way.

I have not invested in O&G for the past 5 years, however, my eye-opening moment was the Pengrowth sale late last year.

https://financialpost.com/commoditie...or-740-million

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/pen...gary-1.5344643

Their stock was at 20 cents, and they sold the company for 5 cents.....

[CroFlames]

Look on the bright side, at least you guys didn't buy VET at $31.

I'm getting out of energy based stocks unless they are renewables. I have no faith in it anymore.

Hopefully my last couple energy stocks break even at some point, then I'm out.

[bomber317]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Look on the bright side, at least you guys didn't buy VET at $31.

I'm getting out of energy based stocks unless they are renewables. I have no faith in it anymore.

Hopefully my last couple energy stocks break even at some point, then I'm out.

Or you can just sell them at a loss and make up your money somewhere else.

That is something I had to realize where it doesn't matter where you make your money. Even if you have a trade that is negative, it doesn't matter when your next trade is positive and makes it back. I used to have that mentality of "breaking even". Now my mentality is "is there something better for me to move this money into"

[GGG]

Originally Posted by bomber317

I would suggest not investing into O&G long term.

yes, all signs might point to oversold however the overall global sentiment is big shift away from O&G.

Institutional funds are now having mandates to not invest in O&G. Just overall less money into the sector.

Even the uptick in retail investors with Robinhood / wallstreetbets fad, none of that was targeting O&G

Is it fair? nope, especially when you see single digit P/E ratios for some energy companies like Suncor. And then you compare that to even a large tech like AAPL at 30-40x PE. I just pulled PE out to give a comparison, but you can pick any metric.

There is definitely volatility though, so you can play the range game to make some short term moves and make money that way.

I have not invested in O&G for the past 5 years, however, my eye-opening moment was the Pengrowth sale late last year.

https://financialpost.com/commoditie...or-740-million

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/pen...gary-1.5344643

Their stock was at 20 cents, and they sold the company for 5 cents.....

Pengrowth was up against a debt refinancing Problem. If you can avoid companies with debt problems our cost per barrels will be supplying global oil for years to come.

So if the price to dividend ratio is attractive then these companies show really good long term outlook. I agree with institutions and the public avoiding them right now you need business fundamentals to drive share price and not hopes and dreams. One pipeline opening adds $3-10 Per barrel in profit.

That is the short term bet you are making with Canadian O+G right now.

The big reason not to get in though is you have already bet your house and job on it.

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by bomber317

I would suggest not investing into O&G long term.

yes, all signs might point to oversold however the overall global sentiment is big shift away from O&G.

Institutional funds are now having mandates to not invest in O&G. Just overall less money into the sector.

Even the uptick in retail investors with Robinhood / wallstreetbets fad, none of that was targeting O&G

Is it fair? nope, especially when you see single digit P/E ratios for some energy companies like Suncor. And then you compare that to even a large tech like AAPL at 30-40x PE. I just pulled PE out to give a comparison, but you can pick any metric.

There is definitely volatility though, so you can play the range game to make some short term moves and make money that way.

I have not invested in O&G for the past 5 years, however, my eye-opening moment was the Pengrowth sale late last year.

https://financialpost.com/commoditie...or-740-million

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/pen...gary-1.5344643

Their stock was at 20 cents, and they sold the company for 5 cents.....

Money talks - at the end of the day if CNQ is paying a ~$2 sustainable dividend, most retail investors will continue to play. Yes there is a change in investing policy coming through to some of the very large funds, but if CNQ can align their ESG policies to appease those funds (ie. increased carbon capture, new technology, green investment) I can't see how they would not attractive to most.

[bomber317]

Originally Posted by Leondros

Money talks - at the end of the day if CNQ is paying a ~$2 sustainable dividend, most retail investors will continue to play. Yes there is a change in investing policy coming through to some of the very large funds, but if CNQ can align their ESG policies to appease those funds (ie. increased carbon capture, new technology, green investment) I can't see how they would not attractive to most.

Dividend based investing vs Growth investing -

Looking at the YTD chart for CNQ, you've gone from $41 to $21 with dividend payouts on

March - $1.43
June - $1.51
Sept - $1.60

Some of the low days were $13, $18.

To me looks like a good candidate stock to play short term and playing the dividend dates.

But is this something I would want long term?

Compared to my current 3 primary stocks

SHOP - YTD - $414 to $1000
AAPL - YTD - $75 to $110
AMZN - YTD - $1900 to $3100

Only AAPL has a dividend, and it is minor compared to it's stock. But their share price gains outpaces the dividend gains that CNQ has based on those YTD dates (jan 1st to today). You can pick and choose some entry points to make it more favorable for CNQ, the $13 low and you're laughing with your dividend payouts.

I have never been a dividend focused investor, so there are probably things or strategies that I'm not aware of to make more gains.

I am making the assumption that most of us are using our TFSA / RRSP accounts for investing so I don't need to adjust for tax rates / taxes / US with holding tax / etc.

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by bomber317

Dividend based investing vs Growth investing -

Looking at the YTD chart for CNQ, you've gone from $41 to $21 with dividend payouts on

March - $1.43
June - $1.51
Sept - $1.60

Some of the low days were $13, $18.

To me looks like a good candidate stock to play short term and playing the dividend dates.

But is this something I would want long term?

Compared to my current 3 primary stocks

SHOP - YTD - $414 to $1000
AAPL - YTD - $75 to $110
AMZN - YTD - $1900 to $3100

Only AAPL has a dividend, and it is minor compared to it's stock. But their share price gains outpaces the dividend gains that CNQ has based on those YTD dates (jan 1st to today). You can pick and choose some entry points to make it more favorable for CNQ, the $13 low and you're laughing with your dividend payouts.

I have never been a dividend focused investor, so there are probably things or strategies that I'm not aware of to make more gains.

I am making the assumption that most of us are using our TFSA / RRSP accounts for investing so I don't need to adjust for tax rates / taxes / US with holding tax / etc.

You just pulled three of the largest tech stocks. We are in a tech bubble right now (atleast I believe so). This just reeks of the 2000 dot com bubble. This is not normal growth and once it subsides and some normalcy returns to the market (ie. people being happy with 5 - 8% growth year over year), these kind of stocks will once again be attractive.

I am likening oil and gas producers similar to tobacco companies in the late 2000's - sure they are going to grow out of favor, face increased scrutiny and maybe lose some initial investors. But if you look at all the tobacco charts, they are still showing great growth and still generating high amounts of cash flow.

[you&me]

Originally Posted by Leondros

You just pulled three of the largest tech stocks. We are in a tech bubble right now (atleast I believe so). This just reeks of the 2000 dot com bubble. This is not normal growth and once it subsides and some normalcy returns to the market (ie. people being happy with 5 - 8% growth year over year), these kind of stocks will once again be attractive.

I am likening oil and gas producers similar to tobacco companies in the late 2000's - sure they are going to grow out of favor, face increased scrutiny and maybe lose some initial investors. But if you look at all the tobacco charts, they are still showing great growth and still generating high amounts of cash flow.

Thinking we're in a tech bubble and trading tech stocks aren't mutually exclusive... Sometimes there's just too much market momentum to ignore, so you might as well take part.

The inverse is true with O&G stocks. If you're a trader, all the fundamentals in the world don't make a difference if the market isn't watching and the stock isn't reacting.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Leondros

You just pulled three of the largest tech stocks. We are in a tech bubble right now (atleast I believe so). This just reeks of the 2000 dot com bubble. This is not normal growth and once it subsides and some normalcy returns to the market (ie. people being happy with 5 - 8% growth year over year), these kind of stocks will once again be attractive.

I am likening oil and gas producers similar to tobacco companies in the late 2000's - sure they are going to grow out of favor, face increased scrutiny and maybe lose some initial investors. But if you look at all the tobacco charts, they are still showing great growth and still generating high amounts of cash flow.

Yeah 2/3 companies above process the vast majority of transactions online for consumers and the other has the largest cash reserves ever ?

I think you will be waiting a long time for the tech bubble to “pop”

It’s nothing like the .com

[Table 5]

Is there rule that says you can't invest in both?

I think it's prudent to have part of your portfolio invested in the future with tech and renewables, while also acknowledging that O/G is not going away anytime soon, and is dirt cheap right now, so probably not a bad time to put some money into it.

Personally, I'm too dumb to try to thread the needle with perfect picks, so I invest in a bit of everything. Tech/Energy/REITs/Precious Metals/Crypto? Yes.

[bomber317]

Originally Posted by Leondros

You just pulled three of the largest tech stocks. We are in a tech bubble right now (atleast I believe so). This just reeks of the 2000 dot com bubble. This is not normal growth and once it subsides and some normalcy returns to the market (ie. people being happy with 5 - 8% growth year over year), these kind of stocks will once again be attractive.

I am likening oil and gas producers similar to tobacco companies in the late 2000's - sure they are going to grow out of favor, face increased scrutiny and maybe lose some initial investors. But if you look at all the tobacco charts, they are still showing great growth and still generating high amounts of cash flow.

I've been in tech since 2008, and the returns have far outpaced what you define as normal growth.

Everything has been out of whack on this 10+ year bull run.

Pick any large cap tech stock you want to compared. I just pulled the ones I'm currently in.

I was previously in

MFST / TSLA / GOOG as well this year. Well those are some of the top large tech companies again! well, now you know my investing strategy, large cap successful companies. My other non-tech holdings these past 2 years, MA / NFLX / V

Does it make sense? not really, when you look at all of the financials and compare it to some of the O&G stocks, but does have to make sense for you to take advantage of what is happening?

Originally Posted by Table 5

Is there rule that says you can't invest in both?

I think it's prudent to have part of your portfolio invested in the future with tech and renewables, while also acknowledging that O/G is not going away anytime soon, and is dirt cheap right now, so probably not a bad time to put some money into it.

Personally, I'm too dumb to try to thread the needle with perfect picks, so I invest in a bit of everything. Tech/Energy/REITs/Precious Metals/Crypto? Yes.

No rule against it.

My argument, is why keep dollar cost averaging down on your O&G positions or really any position that is losing money with no upside? Why do we have always have to think we have to get a "value" stock? or a good bargain?

I've cut loses on bad positions and never looked back. Things where overall sentiment changes on a company. I had LULU during the sheer pant controversy. I had Chipotle during the ecoli outbreak. Now they both made it back in terms of share price at some point, but it took awhile. So I was invested in other things that had positive momentum and gave better returns.