American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[PepsiFree]

Conrad Black, a convicted fraudster pardoned by Trump, thinks Trump is cool.

[Looch City]

Lol Yoho, do you just take the most absurd position on every topic there is? I could MAYBE understand your view points on 'Berta politics...but Trump? Seriously? Thought you were better than this!

[calumniate]

I'd say Trump weighs around half a golf cart

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Looch City

Thought you were better than this!

[photon]

I mean if you want to talk about presidential polls so early, Biden leads Trump if you average all the polls instead of just cherry picking the ones that lean right.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by photon

I mean if you want to talk about presidential polls so early, Biden leads Trump if you average all the polls instead of just cherry picking the ones that lean right.

I like the most recent polls. I’m open to see others.

[photon]

RCP is an average of all polls.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by photon

I mean if you want to talk about presidential polls so early, Biden leads Trump if you average all the polls instead of just cherry picking the ones that lean right.

If it was +2.0 going into election day, I'd be pretty scared. It was +7.2 going into 2020, and popular vote ended up being +4.5 (which may or may not be a useful number since voters from states that are certain to go one way or another may not be that motivated to vote).

[photon]

For sure. And as you say it's down to voters in certain states, 2020 was only won by 44,000 votes across the 3 closest swing states.

I mean it's not like Trump has done anything to attract new voters, the abortion stuff could still have a large impact, and other polls suggest independents are not going to vote for Trump if he's convicted.. But there's lots of things that have been done to hurt the ability to vote in the interim, public opinion on the economy.. there's no reason to think Biden will win easily and every reason to think that Trump will have a very real chance once again.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by photon

For sure. And as you say it's down to voters in certain states, 2020 was only won by 44,000 votes across the 3 closest swing states.

I mean it's not like Trump has done anything to attract new voters, the abortion stuff could still have a large impact, and other polls suggest independents are not going to vote for Trump if he's convicted.. But there's lots of things that have been done to hurt the ability to vote in the interim, public opinion on the economy.. there's no reason to think Biden will win easily and every reason to think that Trump will have a very real chance once again.

Voter engagement is going to be key. Trump supporters seem extremely motivated to get out and vote at all costs. If it is just as close as the last election in key districts and states, even a small dip in voter engagement on the Democrat side could mean a Republican or Trump victory.

Voter intimidation could be a factor as well.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by photon

For sure. And as you say it's down to voters in certain states, 2020 was only won by 44,000 votes across the 3 closest swing states.

I mean it's not like Trump has done anything to attract new voters, the abortion stuff could still have a large impact, and other polls suggest independents are not going to vote for Trump if he's convicted.. But there's lots of things that have been done to hurt the ability to vote in the interim, public opinion on the economy.. there's no reason to think Biden will win easily and every reason to think that Trump will have a very real chance once again.

The Georgia case is going to be interesting to follow. People have loyalty to their states, and if it plays out like Trump was attacking Georgia, or he comes across that way in the trial, it makes Georgia pretty much impossible for him.

The economy is very complicated and will probably favor Trump somewhat. I see dumb, popular memes all the time about gas prices being $1.50 when Trump left office compared to the almost $4 they are now. If enough people believe that it was a good thing that gas was $1.50 in Nov of 2020 due to Trump's good work, then there isn't much hope of an electorate making an informed vote.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by 2Stonedbirds

Buy more stuff like food, which is getting ever more expensive (also in part to carbon taxes) mortgages and rent in the middle of a housing crisis, clothing, things you need to live.
Not cheap junk that western society has become infatuated with.

I'd just like to point out that we have someone here with a frequently opposing political view from a lot of the crowd, that is actually discussing things in good faith. See? "Having an opposing viewpoint" isn't an excuse to drag the forum down into the sewer.

This is more like what I wish politics would return to, largely aligning on the the same goals and problems to be solved through the shared lens of Western ideals, but debating the solutions that will best achieve those goals or solve those problems.

If we're aligned that the world is hotter than ever in human history, and it is starting to, and will continue to, impact the ability for our societies to thrive, then we get to the debate of how to mitigate it, as 2StonedBirds is.

The Carbon Tax is one method of trying to curb consumption, but if it's largely targeting transportation and home heating, is it actually realistic for most of the population living cheque to cheque to upgrade their dwellings and vehicles? The idea of more Luxury Tax based approaches that target vacations and more crap from China seems like a totally reasonable approach. I'd support that. Same deal for Nuclear.

[photon]

Public opinion on the economy I would imagine is a trailing indicator, so assuming things keep progressing like they are now and a recession is avoided then one would think that the negative opinion on the economy for Biden would soften which could be a factor too.

A lot could change in a year.

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by photon

Public opinion on the economy I would imagine is a trailing indicator, so assuming things keep progressing like they are now and a recession is avoided then one would think that the negative opinion on the economy for Biden would soften which could be a factor too.

A lot could change in a year.

This is true. Also, it can be largely expected Democrats will win the popular vote but that doesn't mean a whole lot.

Then there's the curveball where some states might not allow Trump to run due to his indictments. It would be interesting if he was not on the ballot in states like Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania etc. Not sure how likely that is.

[GirlySports]

If overturning abortion and stopping Trump doesn't get people out to the polls nothing will. American would deserve to be doomed.

[2Stonedbirds]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

I'd just like to point out that we have someone here with a frequently opposing political view from a lot of the crowd, that is actually discussing things in good faith. See? "Having an opposing viewpoint" isn't an excuse to drag the forum down into the sewer.

This is more like what I wish politics would return to, largely aligning on the the same goals and problems to be solved through the shared lens of Western ideals, but debating the solutions that will best achieve those goals or solve those problems.

If we're aligned that the world is hotter than ever in human history, and it is starting to, and will continue to, impact the ability for our societies to thrive, then we get to the debate of how to mitigate it, as 2StonedBirds is.

The Carbon Tax is one method of trying to curb consumption, but if it's largely targeting transportation and home heating, is it actually realistic for most of the population living cheque to cheque to upgrade their dwellings and vehicles? The idea of more Luxury Tax based approaches that target vacations and more crap from China seems like a totally reasonable approach. I'd support that. Same deal for Nuclear.

Thing is, I enjoy playing devils advocate. Thats my hang up. My point here being that to get to the point we are discussing, you're going to run into opposition from those who feel such measures are draconian. I'm probably in that camp. I'm not against figuring out a better way to skin a cat when it comes to energy and the enviroment. But we simply aren't there yet, and may have to make concessions somewhere, such as nuclear energy. Who for some is a non starter as they will point to Fukashima and Chernobyl. Those specific instances came from cut corners, either in construction or procedure that created disaster. However we can look at the multitude of reactors that have been in operation for decades with no issue, and have plenty of life left. I find that a reasonable solution.
In the meantime I don't see anything wrong with power generation from nat gas turbines. It's the best mousetrap we currently have in Alberta for example until we get the technology, infrastructure or whatever hurdle is needed to move away from carbon intensive generation.
I also think that O&G exploration isn't going away, regardless of power generation. We still need oil for manufacturing. Offhand, and if I'm wrong someone please correct me, but I believe last I heard that around 25%of O&G produced actually ends up as fuel. The rest is for manufacturing ect.

When it comes to taxes I know this won't be popular, but I'm of the opinion income tax for individuals should be gone. Have a flat rate rax on goods. Want to save money? Save. Want to spend like a drunken sailor? Fill your boots but you'll wish for the GST days.

As far as societal issues regarding individual rights, I wish politicians would shut their ####ing trap and let society figure it out. We have enshrined rights, and everyone deserves the right to live their life the way the see fit. Don't like it? Time to start worrying about your own backyard. I don't give two squirts what the dude down the way is doing so long as he isn't disrupting anyone else's right to do the same. Knowing that, politicians shutting up about it would do a hell of a lot in the way of settling down "culture war" and division as it were.

Married lesbians protecting their dope crops with AR-15s. That's where I'm at but I realize it ain't for everybody. C'est la vie.

[MoneyGuy]

I think Biden crushes Trump because while these indictments will embolden his supporters if you’re on Twitter and depending who you follow you’ll see that his haters are engaged and determined. They’ll get Trump haters out. They know their democracy is at stake. Lose and Trump will devote his presidency to getting revenge against everyone who has put him through this hell. If the U.S. elects this crime boss they deserve what they get. Problem is it will embolden the crazies in Canada.

[CroFlames]

I still can't wrap my head around the phenomenon in the US where they worship Donald effing Trump of all people.

Reagan? Makes sense. Eisenhower? OK. Even Dubya did some of those amusing bits like watch me crush this drive.

But Trump? He's physically revolting, and is actually a criminal that endagered the USA, yet they worship him. Bottles the mind.

[SutterBrother]

The moment Roe v Wade was overturned it was over for the GOP this election cycle.

Young women have a very personal reason to vote now. The mid-terms and special elections bear this out in a huge way, even in red states.

[MoneyGuy]

Also, trying to strip the vote from under-25s will piss them off. It’s like their goal is lose this election.