The Drive for 30th

[Ashasx]

Unless I'm mistaken, the Blues could finished 16th in the league, beat a team in the first round, but lose in the second, and their pick would still be 15th.

[EldrickOnIce]

Nm

[EldrickOnIce]

Nm

[Ark2]

Originally Posted by TurnedTheCorner

And still pick 7 or 8 (barring lottery results).

There's a pretty big drop-off from 1-3 to 7-8. Not sure what you don't get about that.

[Ashasx]

Washington won in the first round last year, but lost in the second round, and still picked 16th because they had the 2nd worst regular season record.

The Blues can lose any time in the first 2 rounds for me to be happy. If you lose in the first 2 rounds, you pick in the order of your regular season finish.

[TurnedTheCorner]

Conference finalists and up get ranked 30-27. After that, it's based on division winners and points only, not playoff results.

[TurnedTheCorner]

Originally Posted by Ark2

There's a pretty big drop-off from 1-3 to 7-8. Not sure what you don't get about that.

Explain it to me like I'm five years old.

[Matty81]

The people saying they think Monahan is better or even close to as good for the Flames as MacKinnon are on crack. You can't expect the team to purposefully tank but you're talking about a 1st/2nd line centre next year vs a guy who is going to need at least another year of junior who might only end up being a 3rd liner. Moving up from 7th-8th into the top 3 would cost both our other 1st rounders and basically negate the Iginla/Bouwmeester returns.

I mean I understand being positive as the Flames results are out of our hands but after a point it just becomes ridiculous.

[Ashasx]

Not that I think Monahan is nearly as good as MacKinnon, but a lot of people do think he has the potential to step in next year and play in the NHL similar to the way Couturier did.

Monahan is one of the older players in this draft year, and if he wasn't playing on the worst team in the CHL, he'd probably have been closer to 100 points this season than the 78 he finished with.

I think Monahan would have gone right after Galchenyuk if he was drafted last year.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Reggie28

If the Blues are playing the Canucks in the first round, who does a flames fan cheer for?

I hope the Blues dont even make the playoffs.

As I understand it, if the Blues make the playoffs this year then the pick is a 2013 1st. If they fail to make the playoffs then the pick is a 2014 1st.

Take a St. Louis team that finished 2nd in the West last season and is struggling to make the playoffs this season, I think it stands to reason that they're going to be hot garbage next season making that 2014 pick potentially top 10 if not higher.

I'd be willing to roll the dice on that.

[Matty81]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Not that I think Monahan is nearly as good as MacKinnon, but a lot of people do think he has the potential to step in next year and play in the NHL similar to the way Couturier did.

Monahan is one of the older players in this draft year, and if he wasn't playing on the worst team in the CHL, he'd probably have been closer to 100 points this season than the 78 he finished with.

I think Monahan would have gone right after Galchenyuk if he was drafted last year.

You could argue the flip side of that... the best players make their teams better - neither of Monahan's linemates broke 40 points!

I think he'd be a great player to add to the prospect stable but the asset value the organization will lose by finishing 7th vs 1st in the draft race is off the charts. Even if they wanted Monahan over MacKinnon they could trade down and add one or two more blue chip players. Again knowing it is out of our hands and people are just being positive and that Oilers win last night was sweet but the results of the next 7 games are going to echo for the next 10 years for the franchise. Please hockey gods... throw us a freakin bone.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Locke

I think it stands to reason that they're going to be hot garbage next season making that 2014 pick potentially top 10 if not higher.

I'd be willing to roll the dice on that.

A 4th this year, and a lottery pick if they miss again next year

[Locke]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

And a lottery pick if they miss again next year

Exactly. Why is it imperative that we have it this year? We've got kids and veterans and very few in between. This team is going to be bad for a while and stands a chance of finishing last this season, and potentially being blown up and finishing very poorly next season.

Could you imagine two 2014 lottery picks after having a 2013 lottery pick and a second 2013 1st?

This team could be well on its way through a rebuild in two years as opposed to the long drawn out circus that Edmonton has gone through.

Think more 'Chicago' and less 'Islanders.'

[MelBridgeman]

Originally Posted by Locke

Exactly. Why is it imperative that we have it this year? We've got kids and veterans and very few in between. This team is going to be bad for a while and stands a chance of finishing last this season, and potentially being blown up and finishing very poorly next season.

Could you imagine two 2014 lottery picks after having a 2013 lottery pick and a second 2013 1st?

This team could be well on its way through a rebuild in two years as opposed to the long drawn out circus that Edmonton has gone through.

Think more 'Chicago' and less 'Islanders.'

Not sure if it matters this year but not all drafts are created equal, from what we here this years draft is a good one to have a few first round picks. Thank god it wasn't in any draft in the last two years

[Locke]

Originally Posted by MelBridgeman

Not sure if it matters this year but not all drafts are created equal, from what we here this years draft is a good one to have a few first round picks. Thank god it wasn't in any draft in the last two years

I understand that, but if you're picking: Flames(lottery), Pens (25-30), Blues (15-25)

Then, take an expectation next season of a really bad Flames team and a possibly bad Blues team and potentially have two 2014 lottery picks?

Like I said, its a gamble, but I'd prefer it. Obviously we have no control because the blues may or may not make the playoffs, but ideally I'd rather have 2 firsts this year and 2 high firsts next year.

[albertGQ]

I prefer to take the Blues pick this year.
A 4th rounder is not enough of compensation to roll the dice next year.

Better draft and an extra year of development beats a 4th rounder and possibly a better pick (but could also be a worse pick).

[Oling_Roachinen]

I think I would prefer the Blues next years pick the more I think about it. Odds are the pick ends up around the 20th overall now but could still be as high as the 30th. Even if they go on to win the Cup next year, it's not a monumental difference between the 20th this year and the 30th next. There is, however, likely an extreme difference between the 20th this year and the 1st-5th next year. Worth the gamble. Also, considering the Devils didn't give up their 1st last year when they ended up with the 29th, I don't see them giving it up this year when they're currently in the top 10. So they'll have to give it up next year and that's a free spot up on any team finishing ahead of them.

Not that it really matters, the Blues chance of missing the playoffs is extremely thin. 3 teams would need to overpass them without the Shark falling below them. Even if they get extremely unlucky and all their competition end up having 3 point games there's just not enough points to go around barring a catastrophic end of the season collapse.

6 of their next 7 are at home. Statistically they're a better road team but with virtually no travel at all during this last stretch that has to be an advantage. The teams they have to face are probably the easiest group out of everyone in the league down this stretch with only the Canucks and Blackhawks currently sitting in the playoffs. Their other opponents include a home and away with Colorado, the Flames, Phoenix and Dallas. If they can't manage a couple wins out of that group I'll become a firm believer in the Bouwmester curse. But really all they need to do is go 2-5 with one of the wins being against Dallas and odds are they're in.

As for the Flames, a win tomorrow against Minnesota could catapult them ahead of the Predators into 7th overall territory and only a point below Edmonton. Just so many bad teams this year when a gutted down Flames team isn't guaranteed a top 5 pick at this point.

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by Matty81

You could argue the flip side of that... the best players make their teams better - neither of Monahan's linemates broke 40 points!

I think he'd be a great player to add to the prospect stable but the asset value the organization will lose by finishing 7th vs 1st in the draft race is off the charts. Even if they wanted Monahan over MacKinnon they could trade down and add one or two more blue chip players. Again knowing it is out of our hands and people are just being positive and that Oilers win last night was sweet but the results of the next 7 games are going to echo for the next 10 years for the franchise. Please hockey gods... throw us a freakin bone.

Seriously this.

I mean, I'm not going to boo wins and cheer losses, but I am hoping to the hockey gods that we get bad bounces and terrible ref calls against us.

Also, it's extremely likely that St. Louis will make the playoffs this year which'll make the point moot, but I do have to agree that given the choice, I'd take St. Louis' pick next year just because at worst, you're going from 16th to 25th-30th, but at best, you're going from 16th to (realistically) 5th-10th.

[Enoch Root]

I get the statistical possibilities with respect to the Blue's pick next year, but looking at their division, I don't see any realistic chance of them not making the playoffs. As I see it:

Chicago
St Louis
Minnesota
Nashville
Dallas
Winnipeg
Colorado

Three of those teams would have to pass them.

Minny? sure.
Nashville? maybe
Dallas? unlikely
Winnipeg? unlikely
Colorado? unlikely

3 of those 5 teams? Highly unlikely

So I'll take this year's pick, thank you very much

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Locke

I understand that, but if you're picking: Flames(lottery), Pens (25-30), Blues (15-25)

Then, take an expectation next season of a really bad Flames team and a possibly bad Blues team and potentially have two 2014 lottery picks?

Like I said, its a gamble, but I'd prefer it. Obviously we have no control because the blues may or may not make the playoffs, but ideally I'd rather have 2 firsts this year and 2 high firsts next year.

I don't get the feeling that the Blues are going to be a bubble team next year, much less a bottom feeder. Perhaps if they lose a significant player during the offseason but I really doubt that will happen as they have 15 players under contract and $24m in cap space to sign the last 8 players.

All they really have to do is have a good playoff run this year and the owners might decide that now is the time to spend to the cap and go for the cup. Then the Flames would be looking at a pick in the 20-30 range in a weaker draft year.

At this point I think the best thing we can hope for is for the Blues to stumble in their next 7 games and end up in 7/8 spot in the conference and get bounced in the first round.