Russia invades Ukraine

[Harry Lime]

Not to distract from daily news, but if there is going to be Sabre rattling by nato, I think that it would be on the border of Belarus. I've thought this since putin threatened to move nukes into that country. Much like the Cuban missile crisis, I think that is where nato would draw the line, should it look like the threat might become reality.

It would also draw significant attention Russia needs to maintain on Ukraine to a northern region.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Firebot

There's been quite a lot of news in the past 24 hours, most notably Ukraine has wiped out 20KM of front lines, and liberated over 100km2 of land. Outside of that initial column that Russians showed 7 angles of while claiming each were new attacks, Russian sources have been quite alarmed and silent.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1667648741740892161

https://twitter.com/user/status/1668000262974328832

Also Russia MoD demanded Wagner to sign over all their soldiers and Wagner under direct Russian control

https://twitter.com/user/status/1667875675972182016

This powder keg is about to blow over and it won't be pretty in Russia

It's really awesome that Ukraine has regained the initiative, but we're still a few days to a week before Ukraine gets to Russia's defensive lines. Russia still controls over 100,000 km2 of land.

Russians aren't a match in the open terrain, but the heavy fortifications and mines are going to be a different story. Slava Ukraini

[GGG]

Just need Kadyrov, Prighozin, and Putin to start infighting.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

It's really awesome that Ukraine has regained the initiative, but we're still a few days to a week before Ukraine gets to Russia's defensive lines. Russia still controls over 100,000 km2 of land.

Russians aren't a match in the open terrain, but the heavy fortifications and mines are going to be a different story. Slava Ukraini

If there was one place the Ukraine could really exploit a breakthrough it is here, if they can push through to the sea that is the defeat of all Russia's strategic aims

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

If there was one place the Ukraine could really exploit a breakthrough it is here, if they can push through to the sea that is the defeat of all Russia's strategic aims

While losing the land bridge is a heavy blow, Russia would not quit fighting even if pushed back to pre-2014 borders. Ukraine cannot join NATO so long as it's in open conflict. Russia will quit when Putin dies

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

It's really awesome that Ukraine has regained the initiative, but we're still a few days to a week before Ukraine gets to Russia's defensive lines. Russia still controls over 100,000 km2 of land.

Russians aren't a match in the open terrain, but the heavy fortifications and mines are going to be a different story. Slava Ukraini

Here's a good map from Frontline in a really good article by Lt-Gen (rtd.) Ben Hodges.

https://cepa.org/article/think-ukrai...eavy-brigades/

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

While losing the land bridge is a heavy blow, Russia would not quit fighting even if pushed back to pre-2014 borders. Ukraine cannot join NATO so long as it's in open conflict. Russia will quit when Putin dies

Nothing is stopping NATO from bending it's own rules. If Ukraine pushes the enemy all the way back to pre-2014 borders and is merely in a defensive posture against further invasion, NATO might consider it.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Here's a good map from Frontline in a really good article by Lt-Gen (rtd.) Ben Hodges.

https://cepa.org/article/think-ukrai...eavy-brigades/

Seems like that Defensive line is begging for the ol'Belgium maneuver. Belorus should be drying up soon...

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Nothing is stopping NATO from bending it's own rules. If Ukraine pushes the enemy all the way back to pre-2014 borders and is merely in a defensive posture against further invasion, NATO might consider it.

But what if it escalates things with Putin and he uses nukes???


...will be the western response

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

But what if it escalates things with Putin and he uses nukes???


...will be the western response

Regardless of if Ukraine is in NATO or not, if the Kremlin launches nukes, NATO will respond.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Regardless of if Ukraine is in NATO or not, if the Kremlin launches nukes, NATO will respond.

Agreed. I'm just pointing out what looks like a stalemate with regards to Ukraine joining NATO. Until Putin dies or maybe longer, Ukraine won't be joining NATO.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Agreed. I'm just pointing out what looks like a stalemate with regards to Ukraine joining NATO. Until Putin dies or maybe longer, Ukraine won't be joining NATO.

Is there a middle group on NATO membership, ie: could Ukraine be like Australia aren't part of NATO but they are involved in co-operative defense.

[undercoverbrother]

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/ukraine...l-on-1.6437121

Lets hope this turns into a giant snowball that gets bigger as it rolls along

Ukrainian military officials said Monday their troops have retaken another southeastern village from Russian forces, among the first -- small -- successes in stepped-up counteroffensive operations against Moscow's more than 15-month invasion of Ukraine

I hope Ivan doesn't want to die on the Ukrainian Steppe

[opendoor]

Even if the war ended today, I'd be shocked in Ukraine was admitted to NATO anytime soon. Even pre-war, they had the 2nd lowest GDP per capita in Europe (next to Moldova), were rated as the 2nd most corrupt (next to Russia), and they've had multiple revolutions in the last 2 decades. There's no real precedence for NATO admitting a member with that kind of instability. Albania and North Macedonia would be the closest comparable, but they're much more stable and they don't share a huge border with Russia.

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Even if the war ended today, I'd be shocked in Ukraine was admitted to NATO anytime soon. Even pre-war, they had the 2nd lowest GDP per capita in Europe (next to Moldova), were rated as the 2nd most corrupt (next to Russia), and they've had multiple revolutions in the last 2 decades. There's no real precedence for NATO admitting a member with that kind of instability. Albania and North Macedonia would be the closest comparable, but they're much more stable and they don't share a huge border with Russia.

Yeah, it would make no sense to allow them in and put all of NATO at risk. Supplying them with intelligence, arms, training, opening our doors to immigration, etc. is the best way to help without escalating and without putting NATO troops at risk. Super sucks for Ukraine, but not sure if we want to commit ourselves to perpetual involvement in the instability of that region with really no upside to us. Strategically, Ukraine is a good buffer between NATO countries (Poland, specifically, and then everything else west of that) and Russia, anyway. Cold way to look at it, but that has to be thinking.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Is there a middle group on NATO membership, ie: could Ukraine be like Australia aren't part of NATO but they are involved in co-operative defense.

Yes. They've been asking for security agreements in lieu of membership until such time as membership is possible

[burn_this_city]

When this wraps up they'll be the most equipped and battle tested armed forces in Europe, I don't see any downsides for their admittance to NATO. Collectively we need to stop tiptoeing around Russia, an economic heavyweight rivaling Canada and Spain that hasn't accepted it's decline from fake superpower 30 years ago.

[bc-chris]

nice!!!


https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affa...n-airport.html

Government of Canada orders seizure of Russian-registered cargo aircraft at Toronto Pearson Airport

From: Global Affairs Canada

News release


June 10, 2023 - Ottawa, Canada - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today announced that the Government of Canada had ordered the seizure of a Russian-registered cargo aircraft currently grounded at Toronto Pearson Airport, pursuant to the Special Economic Measures Act.
The targeted Russian aircraft, an Antonov 124, is believed to be owned by a subsidiary of Volga-Dnepr Airlines LLC and Volga-Dnepr Group, two entities against which Canada recently imposed sanctions due to their complicity in President Putin’s war of choice. The seizure of the asset was made possible by the new asset seizure and forfeiture authorities under Canada’s autonomous sanctions regimes put forward in Budget 2022 and is in direct response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine that began on February 24, 2022.

[Sainters7]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Collectively we need to stop tiptoeing around Russia, an economic heavyweight rivaling Canada and Spain that hasn't accepted it's decline from fake superpower 30 years ago.

And it seemed most of us still believed the military portion of it anyway, before this invasion: that they were the #2 military in the world that could rival USA. Putin and his cronies pulled back that curtain themselves, good job idiots lol

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Sliver

Yeah, it would make no sense to allow them in and put all of NATO at risk. Supplying them with intelligence, arms, training, opening our doors to immigration, etc. is the best way to help without escalating and without putting NATO troops at risk. Super sucks for Ukraine, but not sure if we want to commit ourselves to perpetual involvement in the instability of that region with really no upside to us. Strategically, Ukraine is a good buffer between NATO countries (Poland, specifically, and then everything else west of that) and Russia, anyway. Cold way to look at it, but that has to be thinking.

Russia would have free reign to use pysops to divide and conquer Ukraine, and we'd be back here again in 10-20-30 years. Throw some petrodollars around too, and Ukraine becomes torn between Western and Moscow spheres of influence.

Ukraine needs to be a full NATO member, and EU member. Kyiv needs to be in union with the West completely, and not Moscow. It's in our best interest to have Ukraine be one of us, otherwise, they'll become Belarus 2.0.