Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0

[BlackArcher101]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

It's not stupid low. It's lowest in Canada, but in the context of North America 8% is would be among the highest of US States.

Ok fine, what about the rest of what I said, was I correct? I haven't been following as closely.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

It's not stupid low. It's lowest in Canada, but in the context of North America 8% is would be among the highest of US States.

This is apples-to-oranges because US corporations have higher fully-burdened staffing costs due to the extra expense of employer-provided health insurance whereas in Canada healthcare if funded by the government from general tax revenue.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

This is apples-to-oranges because US corporations have higher fully-burdened staffing costs due to the extra expense of employer-provided health insurance whereas in Canada healthcare if funded by the government from general tax revenue.

Ya, there are so many factors that you can't just look at the one tax number to compare to the US. Across Canada it's also not straightforward, but at least it is a lot closer.


This is a bit like Danielle Smith comparing income taxes between Alberta and various US states without taking into account, well, anything else.

[undercoverbrother]

Danielle Smith really seems ####ing stupid

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I would think we'd have good data to narrow down what the right number is. We have had it dropping from 11 down to 8, so at what point were dollars maximized? Was it 11, or 8, or somewhere in between?

https://open.canada.ca/data/en/datas...9-9f2e2eea7ae8

https://www.alberta.ca/revenue.aspx#...6.6%20billion.


This would be the most basic data. This year is expected to bring in the most corporate tax revenue in Alberta of any year at $6.4 billion including the 12% NDP years. That said it wouldn't be intellectually honest presenting it that way because the tax rate in of itself is only one variable and I pointed out that oil profitability is good right now compared to the NDP years in Alberta. Additionally inflation is also another culprit in that data.

[octothorp]

Since they aren't published on 338canada, I did a quick rundown of the most recent Calgary polling of every pollster going back to the beginning of May (except Mainstreet, who don't publish their regional data without a subscription). Leger is the only major pollster we haven't heard from yet this month... wouldn't be surprised to see something from them before the debate tomorrow:

Abacus: UCP +5
Angus Reid: NDP +3
Counsel Public Affairs: NDP +10
Ipsos: UCP +4
Janet Brown: UCP +12
Sovereign North: NDP +3

So yeah, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ .

[Torture]

Love and Compassion must mean different things than I thought.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1658933437376634887

https://twitter.com/user/status/1658856948652191744

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I would think we'd have good data to narrow down what the right number is. We have had it dropping from 11 down to 8, so at what point were dollars maximized? Was it 11, or 8, or somewhere in between?

It doesn’t seem like there is such data. A reasonable argument can be made for any reasonable number. The problem is not that 11% is unreasonable (it’s not), it’s that moving up from 8% to 11% is a big change that is likely to have unintended though not unforeseen consequences. Cowboy89 is giving reasonable responses to your posts and the reality is no one really knows.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

This is apples-to-oranges because US corporations have higher fully-burdened staffing costs due to the extra expense of employer-provided health insurance whereas in Canada healthcare if funded by the government from general tax revenue.

Is that individual cost driver itself worth a difference in many points on a company's Net Income? Texas is 0% the highest US States are 9-12%, Alberta is 8% and we're talking about moving it to 11%, other Canadian provinces higher. Maybe for an employee-intensive business the health insurance is more expensive and less so for a natural resource or tech-based business. Depending on the location they might also have lower fully-burdened staffing costs all-in because they don't have to pay Alberta salaries which are the highest in Canada and upper quartile in North America.

It's a nuanced discussion that requires more thought than has been given in this thread and the NDP's blanket assumption reflected in their budget.

[Cycling76er]

Originally Posted by Torture

Love and Compassion must mean different things than I thought.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1658933437376634887

https://twitter.com/user/status/1658856948652191744

"If elected as an MLA, I will seek advice and counsel on how to best communicate my views..."

Shouldn't that read "Regardless if elected as an MLA..."?

Looking to be a better human shouldn't be contingent on landing a job as an MLA, you wretched ####.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

Is that individual cost driver itself worth a difference in many points on a company's Net Income? Texas is 0% the highest US States are 9-12%, Alberta is 8% and we're talking about moving it to 11%, other Canadian provinces higher. Maybe for an employee-intensive business the health insurance is more expensive and less so for a natural resource or tech-based business. Depending on the location they might also have lower fully-burdened staffing costs all-in because they don't have to pay Alberta salaries which are the highest in Canada and upper quartile in North America.

It's a nuanced discussion that requires more thought than has been given in this thread and the NDP's blanket assumption reflected in their budget.

OK, so it comes down to one potentially inaccurate number in a budget, but also one that is really hard to get right.


Meanwhile, the opposition won't even talk about replacing our CPP, RCMP, or privatizing healthcare until after the election, becuase they know it's incredibly unpopular. Also, it seems like half their candidates are bigots and borderline morons, some of whom are under investigation, conveniently put off until after the election. And we still don't know just how criminal the last election was for the UCP.

[ajr4013]

Had the Dynalife experience this afternoon. Probably goes without saying but good luck without an appointment (if you’re lucky to get one before late June). I was lucky to be out in about an hour but walk-ins (with a single receptionist serving both lines) were looking at 2-3 hours (on top of a 15-20 minute wait in line). And much like boarding a plane absolutely zero awareness or decorum. I get that it sucks to wait but butting the line is a bit much.

[puffnstuff]

The ucp and tba and the app (Alberta prosperity project)

The Venn diagram of all three of these is a circle.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...558719488.html

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Since they aren't published on 338canada, I did a quick rundown of the most recent Calgary polling of every pollster going back to the beginning of May (except Mainstreet, who don't publish their regional data without a subscription). Leger is the only major pollster we haven't heard from yet this month... wouldn't be surprised to see something from them before the debate tomorrow:

Abacus: UCP +5
Angus Reid: NDP +3
Counsel Public Affairs: NDP +10
Ipsos: UCP +4
Janet Brown: UCP +12
Sovereign North: NDP +3

So yeah, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ .

The kind of results you might expect in a close race, I think. One issue is that some pollsters use Calgary CMA as a region and others are Calgary proper. And the spread might look large but the regional samples will also have a larger MOE because they are comparatively small (n=150 or so in the Abacus poll).

Don’t forget that Janet Brown also had a poll of just Calgary that she did for the CBC about 6 weeks ago — and that poll showed NDP +5. I think that falls outside of your date range, but it’s a data point that is out there.

[GirlySports]

https://338canada.com/alberta/districts.htm

39 Likely UCP or better is dangerous territory for the NDP. UCP only needs 5 more coin flips.

[Bill Bumface]

2SLGBTQIA+

Are there any movements to make this generic? It seems as it's made more specific/all-encompassing to cover all groups, it's just going to inherently leave out other groups or emerging groups.

I also think it puts up a bit of a wall in trying to grow the amount of people supportive and empathetic of the cause.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

https://338canada.com/alberta/districts.htm

39 Likely UCP or better is dangerous territory for the NDP. UCP only needs 5 more coin flips.

I would not put much stock into the specific seat projections. They’re not really based on specific data (which is unavailable with that degree of granularity) but how his model projects the votes will be distributed at certain popular vote margins.

With that said there’s no question in my mind that this election will be very close.

[calculoso]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

It's not stupid low. It's lowest in Canada, but in the context of North America, 8% wouldn't be considered low if you included all US States. It's also not one dimensional, if a few large companies leave it's probably thousands of the provinces highest paying jobs and all the ancillary revenue that comes from that. It's not just about amount of revenue from one source. My point is this isn't a slam dunk simple logic argument that corporate tax increase = better for Alberta as a whole.

If you include the US, make sure to compare employee salaries in USD vs CAD too

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

Are there any movements to make this generic? It seems as it's made more specific/all-encompassing to cover all groups, it's just going to inherently leave out other groups or emerging groups.

I also think it puts up a bit of a wall in trying to grow the amount of people supportive and empathetic of the cause.

Up until recently, "queer" was pretty acceptable shorthand, but the astroturf LGB "without the T+" uh...movement... has kind of thrown a wrench in that.

[Roughneck]

All this tax talk and it avoids the real question.

What would Alberta's personal income and corporate income tax rate need to be if we just matched Texas' tax structure?

6.25% PST, Calgary and Edmonton get a 2% Municipal Sales Tax like Dallas and Houston, and the other counties/municipalities can set their own as well. Doesn't even factor in the property tax differences (Texas has one of the higher property tax rates in the US).

We could probably go with a 0% corporate tax as well (not counting that franchise/gross receipt tax thing they have going on, but that is only about 5% of their total tax revenue), but it's all the result of shifting the tax burden elsewhere.