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Old 05-08-2023, 11:07 AM   #11061
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They're trying to create a we're all in this together thing. The West is only be interested in the leadership and war criminals. How do you convince the depoliticized 60% of Russian society there is an existential crisis, without wild claims of everyone being responsible/killed?
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Old 05-08-2023, 11:12 AM   #11062
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This guy is a bit of a wacko

-If Russia loses this war then Ukraine will kill all Russians.
-He cites a massacre in the 40's as what will happen and says this time it will be much worse "child's play". Civilians were tortured, raped, dismembered and killed. Gee, why does that sound familiar?
-Russians will be killed whether or not they support Putin, everyone will die!!
-The Ukrainians are "bombing non-stop", "Two trains go off the tracks on a daily basis", "They hit the Kremlin".
-Ukraine is now going to use mass terror and hostage taking in Russia!!
-"The whole world is against us"

With the criticism of the military, government and diplomats it's unlikely that Putin gave this the green light but it sure seems designed to rally the people that 'we need to win this war' doesn't it?
From listening to a few Russian experrts over the last few months (Tom Nichols, Fiona Hill, Julia Davis, Michael McFaul, etc) I've got a different understanding of Russian media and overall organization than I had before. I think it's less directed by Putin and more a bunch of people cynically climbing to power by whatever means they can and Putin shooting down things from time to time. Like other Russian youtubers, etc, this guy is trying to catch a vein of emnotion in society and ride it to more viewers and therefore power/money. I don't think he gets a script from Putin, just that he tries to get more people following him and just avoids Putin's wrath. Like with Prigozhin and his was wityh the MoD, etc. He allows chaos and lets selective pressure bring out the "strongest" (which clearly hasn't worked, it just brings out the most cynical)
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Old 05-08-2023, 12:44 PM   #11063
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Today is going to be rough I'm assuming. Big ramp up to May 9th from the russian side..

After tomorrow I think the tides turn, and a bunch of russians start running / dressing as civilians
https://twitter.com/user/status/1655565351587831808

My opinion, any and all businesses still choosing to operate in Russia are complicit in war crimes.
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Old 05-08-2023, 10:04 PM   #11064
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Today is going to be rough I'm assuming. Big ramp up to May 9th from the russian side..

After tomorrow I think the tides turn, and a bunch of russians start running / dressing as civilians

Seems like a good day to launch a Ukrainian counter offensive.
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Old 05-08-2023, 10:07 PM   #11065
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Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist View Post
From listening to a few Russian experrts over the last few months (Tom Nichols, Fiona Hill, Julia Davis, Michael McFaul, etc) I've got a different understanding of Russian media and overall organization than I had before. I think it's less directed by Putin and more a bunch of people cynically climbing to power by whatever means they can and Putin shooting down things from time to time. Like other Russian youtubers, etc, this guy is trying to catch a vein of emnotion in society and ride it to more viewers and therefore power/money. I don't think he gets a script from Putin, just that he tries to get more people following him and just avoids Putin's wrath. Like with Prigozhin and his was wityh the MoD, etc. He allows chaos and lets selective pressure bring out the "strongest" (which clearly hasn't worked, it just brings out the most cynical)
I suspect with the leader of Wagner openly calling out the military and threatening to pull out that Putin has lost vast amounts of power at this point, not enough that anyone will come at him or directly criticize him but I dont think the boys at the top are scared of being deposed either, it looks more like there's a leadership vacuum, that Putin just doesnt have an answer for the crap he's gotten them into so he's undecisive and a bit absent, the mice are trying to work out what lee way they have and jockeying for position if he falls, Putin is smart enough to realise he's on a knife edge as well, that he cant just purge everyone as he's messed up to badly
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Old 05-08-2023, 10:16 PM   #11066
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Quote:
Originally Posted by afc wimbledon View Post
I suspect with the leader of Wagner openly calling out the military and threatening to pull out that Putin has lost vast amounts of power at this point, not enough that anyone will come at him or directly criticize him but I dont think the boys at the top are scared of being deposed either, it looks more like there's a leadership vacuum, that Putin just doesnt have an answer for the crap he's gotten them into so he's undecisive and a bit absent, the mice are trying to work out what lee way they have and jockeying for position if he falls, Putin is smart enough to realise he's on a knife edge as well, that he cant just purge everyone as he's messed up to badly
I view it a bit differently. Putin's method has been similar to Trump. Let your people fight it out and the winner of the power struggle gets to call the shots. If you don't like the winner or they don't get the result you want, put them down a notch and see who takes them out.

Putin doesn't like the direction the war is going so he lets Prighozin and Kadyrov run their mouths and demotes the people in charge of the MoD to create a power struggle. When he felt Prighozin wasn't getting it done he canned Prighozin's buddy from the MoD and let the MoD recruit prisoners and stop Wagner from doing so. It's all a little game. It works well to consolidate power as so the power rings through Putin, but it's an awful way to run an actual administration because it really entrenches and enforces corruption while also leaving really low morale which is certainly not good for an army.
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Old 05-08-2023, 10:39 PM   #11067
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Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist View Post
I view it a bit differently. Putin's method has been similar to Trump. Let your people fight it out and the winner of the power struggle gets to call the shots. If you don't like the winner or they don't get the result you want, put them down a notch and see who takes them out.

Putin doesn't like the direction the war is going so he lets Prighozin and Kadyrov run their mouths and demotes the people in charge of the MoD to create a power struggle. When he felt Prighozin wasn't getting it done he canned Prighozin's buddy from the MoD and let the MoD recruit prisoners and stop Wagner from doing so. It's all a little game. It works well to consolidate power as so the power rings through Putin, but it's an awful way to run an actual administration because it really entrenches and enforces corruption while also leaving really low morale which is certainly not good for an army.
This also creates divisions within the military and the government, which is great for Putin who gets to play kingmaker while making sure no one person or side gets too strong, but it's terrible for efficiency as it destroys co-operation, with everyone wanting to see everyone else fail.
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Old 05-09-2023, 07:53 AM   #11068
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Putin only has a single tank to spare for his precious parade day. And the T-34 was built in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1655853333909843969

https://twitter.com/user/status/1655846812723412992
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Old 05-09-2023, 08:14 AM   #11069
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Interesting chart showing potential combat power prior to the counteroffensive.
https://twitter.com/user/status/1655866883369848832
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Old 05-09-2023, 08:57 AM   #11070
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Originally Posted by burn_this_city View Post
Interesting chart showing potential combat power prior to the counteroffensive.
https://twitter.com/user/status/1655866883369848832
Hopefully the quality of the Western IFVs off set the 2 - 1 numerical advantage.

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Old 05-09-2023, 09:41 PM   #11071
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Noncredibledefense is great


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Old 05-09-2023, 10:20 PM   #11072
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On Reddit they were saying they only had a single solitary tank in the parade, a T-34 that was likely manufactured in Kharkiv Ukraine
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Old 05-10-2023, 09:03 AM   #11073
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Japan is in discussions to open a NATO liasion office:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/10/asia/...hnk/index.html

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Japan is in talks to open a NATO liaison office, the first of its kind in Asia, the country’s foreign minister told CNN in an exclusive interview on Wednesday, saying Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made the world less stable.

“We are already in discussions, but no details (have been) finalized yet,” Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Wednesday, speaking a week ahead of the Group of Seven summit, hosted this year by Japan in Hiroshima.

Hayashi specifically cited Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year as an event with repercussions far beyond Europe’s borders that forced Japan to rethink regional security.

“The reason why we are discussing about this is that since the aggression by Russia to Ukraine, the world (has) become more unstable,” he said.

“Something happening in East Europe is not only confined to the issue in East Europe, and that affects directly the situation here in the Pacific. That’s why a cooperation between us in East Asia and NATO (is) becoming … increasingly important.”

He added that Japan is not a treaty member of NATO, which stands for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization – but that the move sends a message the bloc’s Asia Pacific partners are “engaging in a very steady manner” with NATO.

The opening of a NATO liaison office in Japan would mark a significant development for the Western alliance amid deepening geopolitical fault lines, and is likely to attract criticism from the Chinese government, which has previously warned against such a move.
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Old 05-10-2023, 09:07 AM   #11074
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Japan also linking up with South Korea on ballistic missile radar tracking.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...ce-2023-05-09/
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Old 05-10-2023, 09:09 AM   #11075
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Haha. ####ing Putin.

He was so worried about NATO expansion in Europe, he invades Ukraine. Now he's getting NATO expansion in Europe AND a NATO partnership in Asia.

Terrific.
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Old 05-10-2023, 09:43 AM   #11076
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Haha. ####ing Putin.

He was so worried about NATO expansion in Europe, he invades Ukraine. Now he's getting NATO expansion in Europe AND a NATO partnership in Asia.

Terrific.
Many lawyers have a similar experience with their clients:

Client: "I hate these guys, they're always suing people, I'm gonna do X"

Lawyer: "If you do X, they will almost certainly sue you".

Client: *Does X*

Lawyer: "Client, you have been sued"

Client: "WHAAATTTTT????!?!?!?!"
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Old 05-10-2023, 09:49 AM   #11077
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It was never about NATO. NATO was just the public reason. This was always about preventing Ukraine from developing their O&G industry to become a competing supplier to Europe.
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Old 05-10-2023, 10:23 AM   #11078
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It was never about NATO. NATO was just the public reason. This was always about preventing Ukraine from developing their O&G industry to become a competing supplier to Europe.
The point stands. Finland is in, Sweden is effectively in. Ukraine will be in when the war is over, and at the same time will begin EU accession talks. Now Japan is becoming an official NATO partner/ally.

All this, because of the Putin invasion. This could not have gone any worse for him, and it was his own damn fault.
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Old 05-10-2023, 10:34 AM   #11079
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This was posted about 1 hr ago

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Old 05-10-2023, 10:36 AM   #11080
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I can't watch that now. Is Bakhmut officially liberated then?
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