Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by Ferarri

These polls are disheartening. Really starting to seem like it will be a UCP runaway victory. This province has to be the most embarrassing in the country in terms of politics. There was a real opportunity to boot this mess of a government and demand better from what we witnessed these last 4 years. Instead we will likely reward them with another term. Absolutely pathetic. One can only hope these polls are not accurate.

Yea, these latest polls are incredibly disappointing if accurate and a pretty sad indictment of the Alberta populace. Just beyond embarrassing. I left the province a few years ago. I've always said that I would eventually love to go back and possibly retire there at some point, but this current version of Alberta is definitely not the one that I grew up in, and watching this bats*** crazy, MAGA-esque governement destroy my once beloved province is really disheartening.

If the UCP wins, and it's looking like they very well might, it's gonna set Alberta down a very dark and dangerous path. Can't believe the people in that province would award these a**holes another 4 years, but here we are. Best of luck, folks.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Does anyone else get a ton of bs religious freedom survey questions when they visit 338Canada on their phones? Or is it just the company I keep?

I get asked if I think “woke indoctrination” is a) a serious problem or b) THE WORST PROBLEM EVER. It’s super weird.

[Johnny Makarov]

Are most of the data from these polling companies through the phone still?

If it is why would anyone pay attention to any numbers other than exit polls?

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by direwolf

Yea, these latest polls are incredibly disappointing if accurate and a pretty sad indictment of the Alberta populace. Just beyond embarrassing. I left the province a few years ago. I've always said that I would eventually love to go back and possibly retire there at some point, but this current version of Alberta is definitely not the one that I grew up in, and watching this bats*** crazy, MAGA-esque governement destroy my once beloved province is really disheartening.

If the UCP wins, and it's looking like they very well might, it's gonna set Alberta down a very dark and dangerous path. Can't believe the people in that province would award these a**holes another 4 years, but here we are. Best of luck, folks.

Give it a bit of time. There is literally only one poll showing the UCP with a significant lead, and that’s Janet Brown—her numbers don’t jive with what other pollsters (including Mainstreet) are saying, and also don’t jive particularly well with her own prior poll showing the NDP leading by 5 points in Calgary. Also, because her poll is unpublished we don’t know anything about how the sample was weighted, or what questions were asked. What we do know is that her poll was in the field for 10 days (May

She could be right. But that would make a lot of other pollsters wrong. The NDP says its internal numbers look like Abacus’ numbers (believe it or not, parties don’t usually lie about that sort of thing—there’s not much upside in it, and you just look stupid long term when you do) and Abacus is in the field right now with another poll, which should come out in a day or two. Another poll was released this morning showing the NDP leading both provincially and in Calgary.

All of which is to say—let’s not get ahead of ourselves. This election has looked very close for weeks and there is no good reason to believe that has suddenly changed. Let’s wait for more data, and also accept that no amount of data is going to give us a perfect picture of what’s going on (though it can make for interesting discussion). With two exceptions (Abacus and JB) the polls are all consistent with a very close race in which every vote is going to matter. The simplest explanation—to me—is that what we are seeing is a combination of statistical noise and a couple of outliers in both directions.

In the end, we will find out on election day.

[White Out 403]

I try not to #### on albertans too much because at the end of the day I grew up in Manitoba and I still feel like a guest here. But if this province re-elects Danielle Smith and the ucp, there is some serious questioning about the intelligence of the average Albertan. This would be Alabama style gullibility and stupidity.

[Torture]

Neat.

Top leaders of the far-right “Take Back Alberta” group are holding late night webinars training supporters on how to infiltrate campaigns, get appointed as scrutineers and raise doubts about the results of Alberta’s upcoming election.

Anjelika Oulanova, a presenter who previously hosted a Take Back Alberta event at her home near Okotoks, provided a presentation on “How to ensure integrity of our vote” that cast doubt on the reliability of voting machines and asked attendees: “If we have machines that don’t count correctly, how can we rely on them?”

Oulanova suggested scrutineers buy “handheld tally counters,” or “clickers,” on Amazon to manually count the number of voters entering polling stations and explained how to look up voters’ addresses on their phones to make sure it’s a residential property.

“You can use your cell phone to check the address on declarations,” Oulanova said. “If it’s a commercial building, we’ve got a problem, you’ve got to dispute that declaration.”

Oulanova provided a list of 34 battleground ridings for scrutineers to target.

Oulanova also provided a “script” that gives scrutineers instructions on how to dispute votes with Elections Alberta poll workers and advises them on how to ask to physically examine voting machines.

https://pressprogress.ca/take-back-a...on-voting-day/


Here's the list of battleground ridings TBA is targeting.


And script for having votes thrown out.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

Are most of the data from these polling companies through the phone still?

If it is why would anyone pay attention to any numbers other than exit polls?

Methods vary but yes, most of the polls are primarily phone polls. That usually makes the samples skew older but there’s demographic weighting that is applied to correct for that. Sometimes that demographic weighting is what accounts for the different numbers you see from pollsters—they make educated guesses about what the electorate will look like and who the “likely voters” are. One of the differences between Janet Brown and others is that her poll is exclusively by phone and does not use any online panels. Another difference is her field time was really long (10 days) which is normally considered bad, because it makes it harder to capture a snapshot in time and can fail to pick up voter reactions to events.

One of the reasons it’s hard to assess the JB poll is we don’t have access to any of those aspects of her model. If she thinks people 45 and under are not going to vote, that may be why she has the UCP winning—and if that prediction is correct, her numbers will look pretty good. If young people turn out the way they did when Notley was first elected, that might be a bit of a different story though.

[Looch City]

Disgusting.

[Slava]

What voting machines are they talking about? Like aren't we still using paper ballots and dropping them into the box?

[burn_this_city]

The well worn trail of casting doubt on the election rather than your ####ty candidate and policies. These people are garbage.

[Muta]

TBA becoming scrutineers is incredibly alarming and dangerous. More media attention should be paid to this.

Moderate conservatives - take back your side of the political spectrum from these whackos, geezus christ.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by White Out 403

I try not to #### on albertans too much because at the end of the day I grew up in Manitoba and I still feel like a guest here. But if this province re-elects Danielle Smith and the ucp, there is some serious questioning about the intelligence of the average Albertan. This would be Alabama style gullibility and stupidity.

Hard agree. I moved to Calgary from New Brunswick immediately after I graduated from university in 2002. At the time, all my college friends from the Maritimes were like, "You're not a right-wing cowboy. Why would you choose to go there?" I always defended Alberta (and Calgary in particular) as being much more cosmopolitan, multicultural, and accepting of immigrants/LGBTQ/etc. than Atlantic Canada and said that people from small-town rural New Brunswick are no less small-minded bigoted conservative rednecks as people from small-town rural Alberta are.

After Jason Kenney's UCP was elected in 2019, I couldn't defend Alberta anymore, and it was even worse because Calgary ridings tipped the scales in that election. If Danielle Smith and her freedumb convoy party win in 2023 (once again thanks to Calgary voters), I'll have to grudgingly admit that my friends were right about Alberta all along. How has this province moved so far backwards in 20 years? It's so sad to see.

[craigwd]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

If Calgary ends up letting Daniel Smith be our next premiere we will need a Calgary is No Good thread in the off topic.

Wake the eff up you idiots!

BuT mY twO doLLar tAx bREak

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Slava

What voting machines are they talking about? Like aren't we still using paper ballots and dropping them into the box?

I thin the last election was pencil and paper, but counted electronically.

[MoneyGuy]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://twitter.com/user/status/1658236738802970625

The whiny b1tch wasn’t charged.

[Torture]

Big fan of this, cause if Manitoba can have $10/day daycare, why not Alberta too?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1658501311665676288

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Torture

Big fan of this, cause if Manitoba can have $10/day daycare, why not Alberta too?

Alberta can't have subsidized $10/day childcare because it will result in more young mothers choosing to participate in the workforce. Good Christian women who are subservient to their husbands should stay in the home where they belong.

[KelVarnsen]

Originally Posted by Torture

Big fan of this, cause if Manitoba can have $10/day daycare, why not Alberta too?

Because that's communism

[Reggie Dunlop]

Originally Posted by Slava

What voting machines are they talking about? Like aren't we still using paper ballots and dropping them into the box?

Advance polls only.

[Wastedyouth]

Legit question,

How many of the many people complaining and worried on this forum are out campaigning for the NDP candidates in their area?

Sign on the lawn?

Social media presence sharing up to date information on UCP tactics and lies?

Heading to forums to ask questions of all the candidates?

Holding UCP candidates accountable?

Just wondering. It is really doom and gloom and angry rhetoric in here, and seem to be very few trying to do anything to help.

Most of you literally live in the battleground of this election.

Go DO something about it.