Real estate in Calgary - another bubble?

[you&me]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

I sold my condo in a week during the height of the pandemic in 2020.

I think location, the condition the unit is in and, most of all, the asking price are the key factors. Condos are always in demand for the right price.

Absolutely.

The problem a lot of condo owners in Calgary are having is that "right" price today is often less than it was in 2014...

[Ozy_Flame]

My wife and I sold a condo last year in Edmonton. We got asking price and it took about a week.

The location, recent renos, two-parking stalls next to each other and healthy condo board finances all contributed.

That said, we did sell for less than was bought for in 2013. But not that much.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Table 5

As a family of two kids, things we prioritize: Easy access to schools, parks/activities, safety, having other families around, character, elbow room, good value.
Zero effs given about: Easy access to restaurants, nightlife, culture hotspots. Not that we don't like those things...but we rarely get to take advantage of those things in our day to day life, so they are down the list of priorities and not something we need to pay for. On the off chance we go to a restaurant, it's not a tragedy if we have to drive.

As a parent of 2 small children this mirrors my priorities. Buy/pay for the things you need/want to use 90-95% of the time and don't fuss over the things you use sparingly.

I might go to a restaurant, nightspot, 'culture hotspot' outside of work requirements like once or twice a month. Not by choice, but by the simple time realities of being a working parent. I find a lot of new parents sometimes still in their own mind think they aren't far off form their carefree childless days where dining at the trendiest restaurants was a staple. Once the kids are in pre-school and school you're social life almost entirely revolves around their activities.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Most are getting help from their parents. I think that’s well-established. It’s amazing how generous the bank of mom and dad becomes once grandkids enter the picture.





What does that show us? It shows us that even at those eye-watering prices, couples will do whatever it takes - beg, borrow, steal - to get into a detached home. They’ll take on $600k more in debt to upgrade from a downtown condo to a suburban family home. Living in the high density city centre was just a transitional lifestyle phase.

The flight from urban centres during the pandemic also shows us that a great many people with property there did not love the lifestyle, but only lived in the inner city because it was convenient for work. Remove or reduce the need to go into the office and the utility of living close to the office goes down.

I think if 3 bedroom places, with proper layouts, were readily available close to the city centre, those places would be in very high demand. Everyone has their own preferences, but a 3 bedroom townhouse in the city vs. a detached home in Surrey/Coquitlam is not even a contest. The problem is so few of those townhouses currently exist.

Once again, I'll point to Montreal as the model of how to do things properly. Montreal has a variety of well built 3 bedroom townhouses close to the city centre that sell for $700k-1.2 million, and those are extremely popular with families.

The "missing middle" is definitely a thing outside of Montreal. IMO people are only moving away from the city centres, because they absolutely have to. When I speak to people who make that move, it's always the same story. They are in a 600-800 square foot condo, which is no longer liveable with multiple kids or kids older than 5. They would like to find more space, but the quality of anything bigger that's also within their budget just doesn't make it possible. So they reluctantly move to the suburbs. Some adjust and are able to find great child orientated social groups. Others end up alcoholics and philanderers.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by peter12

We have busses and trains.

Things that existed before the petrochemical boom. Short of a massive contraction in quality of life we aren't shedding the private vehicle. I think some folks underappreciate how much economic activity is tied to private vehicle ownership and the productivity gains provided by it. Sure some people live in a niche where they don't need a car, but that is the exception not the rule.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by blankall

Once again, I'll point to Montreal as the model of how to do things properly. Montreal has a variety of well built 3 bedroom townhouses close to the city centre that sell for $700k-1.2 million, and those are extremely popular with families.

But isn't that the problem, even in Montreal which has had a relatively mild real estate boom the price of such homes are still way above what the local median household can afford (or should spend).

IMO people are only moving away from the city centres, because they absolutely have to.

In a ideal world, people would have a large home near where they work and amenities, and a large estate in the country when they don't need to be in the city. But given financial limits, once motorized transportation (and especially cars) became available for day-to-day trips, people prioritized space/$. Hence most city cores in the NE and Midwest US and parts of western Europe being no bigger and often lower in population than they were 50-100 years ago.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by accord1999

But isn't that the problem, even in Montreal which has had a relatively mild real estate boom the price of such homes are still way above what the local median household can afford (or should spend).

In a ideal world, people would have a large home near where they work and amenities, and a large estate in the country when they don't need to be in the city. But given financial limits, once motorized transportation (and especially cars) became available for day-to-day trips, people prioritized space/$. Hence most city cores in the NE and Midwest US and parts of western Europe being no bigger and often lower in population than they were 50-100 years ago.

I was responding to the point people generally prioritize detached homes over location. This isn't true. This group, which contains mostly people who live in Calgary, so this group has an inherent bias towards detached homes. Obviously I get that everyone has their own priorities, but my point is that we'd see a lot more people staying closer to city centres if they had more housing options, specifically if more 3 bedroom townhouses were available.

The whole issue with incomes vs. housing prices has been out of proportion for a long time. People are simply borrowing huge amounts at record low interest rates.

[The Big Chill]

Originally Posted by Slava

Honestly, not that you should take anonymous advice from someone on the internet, I'd try to hold off for a while and wait for inventories to become closer to average. I realise there are a million factors here, not the least of which could be a realtor telling you that you need to "buy now because you're out of the market and what if it rockets up?!?!"

But looking ahead, spring would generally have more listings and more homes on the market. Interest rates could well rise within the week or in March, depending on who you listen to regarding that. I think both of those might be better. (And of course you can get rates locked in to protect yourself in that event...)

I usually try to avoid taking advice from a Spurs supporter, but this is exactly what we are going to do.

We are in the fortunate position of already owning a house we are happy with, so we don’t need to get involved in the craziness. We would like to size up a bit now that we have two kids, but it is definitely a want and not a need.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by The Big Chill

I usually try to avoid taking advice from a Spurs supporter, but this is exactly what we are going to do.

We are in the fortunate position of already owning a house we are happy with, so we don’t need to get involved in the craziness. We would like to size up a bit now that we have two kids, but it is definitely a want and not a need.

Haha, it could be worse, what if I supported United?

[kevman]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Are people with children overly concerned with walkability, entertainment, culture, and restaurants? I have a 2.5 year old and basically none of those rate highly on my pyramid of needs.

Yes. Being able to walk your kid to day care is far better than having to drive.

Small yard, traffic, constant supervision required.

This is a misnomer. Small house? Sure. But the yards in the burbs are far smaller than you can get in an inner city walkable neighbourhood if that's your priority.

[The Big Chill]

Originally Posted by Slava

Haha, it could be worse, what if I supported United?

I’d have bought a house out of spite!

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Table 5

We recently switched out from a newish semi-detached infill (ie your typical 3 story narrow box duplex) in a great inner city community to a fully-detached older home slightly further out...for about 5-10% increase in cost, and are pretty satisfied with the move. The infill was a great for us to raise 2 small kids out of, but we had outgrown it the last few years...not necessarily because of size, but more in terms of the layout (it felt like living in a really tall railroad car and we were always on separate floors). There were also some noise/crime issues on our street that were starting to get a bit out of hand because of us being so close to a main street...it wasn't the primary reason, but it certainly didn't help.

Even though our house is older (1930) I have to say from an "investment" perspective, I'm much more comfortable with having my money be mostly tied to the land, as opposed to the building that sits on it, or silly things like finishings. Our infill was a ticking-time bomb...it looked great at the start, but construction quality was suspect, and I was never fully comfortable with having my biggest asset directly tied to a stranger.

As a family of two kids, things we prioritize: Easy access to schools, parks/activities, safety, having other families around, character, elbow room, good value.
Zero effs given about: Easy access to restaurants, nightlife, culture hotspots. Not that we don't like those things...but we rarely get to take advantage of those things in our day to day life, so they are down the list of priorities and not something we need to pay for. On the off chance we go to a restaurant, it's not a tragedy if we have to drive.

care to elaborate on what you mean by this?

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

care to elaborate on what you mean by this?

Spoiler!

[nik-]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

care to elaborate on what you mean by this?

A lot of infills (most?) are duplexes.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

care to elaborate on what you mean by this?

Well, not unlike with a condo or apartment, when you're part of a duplex you're tied at the hip because you physically share the property, so everything one side does has the potential to affect the other. It's not necessarily a problem, but it has the potential to be if you (or they) ever want to make changes to the property and there is disagreement.

You also roll the dice with who your neighbours are as people in terms of lifestyle/habits. Case in point, last spring our duplex neighbours decided to go to Victoria for a few months, and AirBNB'd out their place during the time. So every Friday/Saturday for a month their unit became a party pad for 20-30 kids (because they couldn't go to clubs due to Covid restrictions, they decided to illegally party in AirBnBs). These parties got so out of control (broken bottles and pissing on our lawn, fights amongst different groups etc) that the cops had to be called several times. That was probably what sealed the deal in us wanting a detached home.

You can't pick your neighbours with a detached house either. But I do find having a physical (and financial) buffer does offer peace of mind.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by blankall

I was responding to the point people generally prioritize detached homes over location. This isn't true. This group, which contains mostly people who live in Calgary, so this group has an inherent bias towards detached homes. Obviously I get that everyone has their own priorities, but my point is that we'd see a lot more people staying closer to city centres if they had more housing options, specifically if more 3 bedroom townhouses were available.

The replies in this thread have basically evidenced this.
The Vancouver residents saying inner city amenities and walkable communities are important to them and the Calgarians saying they're not.
In general, the view on this is very different between the 2 cities.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

The replies in this thread have basically evidenced this.
The Vancouver residents saying inner city amenities and walkable communities are important to them and the Calgarians saying they're not.
In general, the view on this is very different between the 2 cities.

Vancouver doesn't have a lot of choice though, unless you want a really long commute. I think Calgary shows when people are given a choice, they mostly choose SFH.

[you&me]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

The replies in this thread have basically evidenced this.
The Vancouver residents saying inner city amenities and walkable communities are important to them and the Calgarians saying they're not.
In general, the view on this is very different between the 2 cities.

It's not exactly an apples to apples comparison though.

For one, inner city Vancouver has far more vibrant, walkable communities than inner city Calgary and on top of that, the climate is more conducive to walking, so obviously it has more appeal.

Secondly (and probably more importantly), detached single family homes in Vancouver are so stratospherically priced that the average person has had to resign themselves to multi-family living, lest they endure a 90 minute commute. If the decision becomes to live in a single family home 100km from DT, or live in a smaller multi family home closer in, I could become more of a walkable community enthusiast as well.

Calgary pricing isn't to the point where that decision is basically made for people.

[I_H8_Crawford]

We bought a newish duplex in inner city - just liked being close to the good asian restaurants, and close to Elementary & JR High Schools so our kids can walk.

Love being able to walk my daughter to kindergarten each day and be home within 10 mins.

Neighbors are great, and if the ones in the attached side decide to sell, we will likely buy it to own the whole land, and let my wife's family live there.

That being said, if we spent the money we did on a place out in Chestermere, would have got a lot more for it, but just didn't want the long commute to get anything good (i.e. food, Flames games, my leagues I play in, etc.) and my wife will have to return to the office at some point.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Table 5

Well, not unlike with a condo or apartment, when you're part of a duplex you're tied at the hip because you physically share the property, so everything one side does has the potential to affect the other. It's not necessarily a problem, but it has the potential to be if you (or they) ever want to make changes to the property and there is disagreement.

You also roll the dice with who your neighbours are as people in terms of lifestyle/habits. Case in point, last spring our duplex neighbours decided to go to Victoria for a few months, and AirBNB'd out their place during the time. So every Friday/Saturday for a month their unit became a party pad for 20-30 kids (because they couldn't go to clubs due to Covid restrictions, they decided to illegally party in AirBnBs). These parties got so out of control (broken bottles and pissing on our lawn, fights amongst different groups etc) that the cops had to be called several times. That was probably what sealed the deal in us wanting a detached home.

You can't pick your neighbours with a detached house either. But I do find having a physical (and financial) buffer does offer peace of mind.

Ahh

I wasn't aware that the infill you lived in was a duplex. Most of the infills I tend to notice i.e. Killarney or Altadore seem to be detached

When I was a kid, my parents used to own a rental duplex and I always found it to be such a weird concept to split a house into two units.