Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[opendoor]

We've likely hit the terminal rate for this cycle, so I don't think anything that relies on the premise of "what happens if interest rates stay this high indefinitely" is particularly useful. The market is currently predicting a 4% policy rate in the next year and a 3.25% one by 2025. And because government debt is issued over different term lengths, short-term interest spikes only have a modest effect.

And comparisons to the '80s and '90s don't make a ton of sense at this point. Even at current rates, federal debt servicing is about 1.6-1.7% of GDP; it was over 6% in the early '90s and didn't drop below 4% for a 20-year period.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Calgary '89

No government can raise it and survive? The very next majority government implemented the Carbon Tax with a ton of voter support.
Harper was many things Canadians don't want to associate with but he was also tidy on his overall numbers.

Trudeau wasn't left a financial mess to deal with but now for the 2nd time in millions of peoples lives a Trudeau will leave their successor a financial disaster that'll take years and years to handle. Let's not forget why the GST was implemented in the first place.

The carbon tax gets mostly rebated, it's not like a "real tax". *Fuzz pauses for incoming strawman rant about CoL increases* Done? *Fuzz pauses for false equivalency comparison to GST rebates* OK? OK!

Harper left a massive infrastructure deficit and only managed to balance the budget with creative sales of assets.

And yes, Liberal spending really seems to be out to lunch, and it's time for a change of government in some manner to fix that.

Now, what issue do you think the GST was implemented to solve?

[you&me]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

I don’t believe that a PM regularly takes weekends off. It’s a 24/7 job, like it or not.

That said, people are complaining about the PM’s salary of $379,000 and days off? Pierre Poilievre will collect (I refuse to use the word “earn”) $279,900? He flies around the country, campaigning for an election two years out, slamming Trudeau at every opportunity. It’s right out of the GOP playbook.

Hot take - the Prime Minister should work more and be paid more.

LOL at "taking weekends off"

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Calgary '89

No government can raise it and survive? The very next majority government implemented the Carbon Tax with a ton of voter support.
Harper was many things Canadians don't want to associate with but he was also tidy on his overall numbers.

Trudeau wasn't left a financial mess to deal with but now for the 2nd time in millions of peoples lives a Trudeau will leave their successor a financial disaster that'll take years and years to handle. Let's not forget why the GST was implemented in the first place.

The GST was implemented because sales taxes are a highly reliable way to generate government revenue. And Harper being a smart guy who understood Canada’s looming demographic headwinds, cutting the GST was irresponsible pandering.

If we don’t want our public health care system to collapse altogether, at some point we’re going to have to restore the GST to at least 7 per cent. Probably higher. The Nordic countries that Canadians like to compare themselves with for their social welfare (and expect the same level of public services) have 20-25 per cent VATS.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

The GST was implemented because sales taxes are a highly reliable way to generate government revenue. And Harper being a smart guy who understood Canada’s looming demographic headwinds, cutting the GST was irresponsible pandering.

If we don’t want our public health care system to collapse altogether, at some point we’re going to have to restore the GST to at least 7 per cent. Probably higher. The Nordic countries that Canadians like to compare themselves with for their social welfare (and expect the same level of public services) have 20-25 per sent VATS.

You know it's the honest, tough truth when Cliff and I agree on something.

[Calgary '89]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

The carbon tax gets mostly rebated, it's not like a "real tax". *Fuzz pauses for incoming strawman rant about CoL increases* Done? *Fuzz pauses for false equivalency comparison to GST rebates* OK? OK!

Harper left a massive infrastructure deficit and only managed to balance the budget with creative sales of assets.

And yes, Liberal spending really seems to be out to lunch, and it's time for a change of government in some manner to fix that.

Now, what issue do you think the GST was implemented to solve?

Mostly rebated? If you take Trudeau and Freeland at their word. It's been proven that the rebate is a net positive for ONLY the poorest segment of the population which sounds great in theory except for the fact that it's a growing segment too. For you and me who have time to fart around and post on these forums, it's definitely a tax.

The GST was a replacement of the manufacturers tax so I was wrong to claim that it was implemented to pay down Trudeau debt, however the point remains on what had to happen after Trudeau 1.0 and it continued well after Mulroney.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Calgary '89

Covid isn't the reason we're in trouble. The out of control spending was already happening before we even knew what Covid was. $100B deficit before the pandemic started.

I'm not giving anyone a "pass", I'm saying for the 2nd time in my lifetime and maybe yours too a Trudeau took a massive dump on the economy and left the next guy to clean it up. Maybe it's a coincidence that the next guy is always a conservative but likely isn't.

The Conservative government that followed Pierre Trudeau did not "clean up" the Government of Canada's finances. In fact, they made it even worse; federal deficit spending increased under Mulroney's Conversative government of the mid-late 80s and early 90s. It was the following Liberal government of Jean Chretien and Paul Martin that got Canada's fiscal house in order, balancing the budget and paying down the national debt. It only took Harper a few years to squander this and return the country to deficit spending.

Within my lifetime (I'm 43), there has only been one government at the federal level that has been responsible with the federal budget, and it sure wasn't a Conservative one.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

The GST was implemented because sales taxes are a highly reliable way to generate government revenue. And Harper being a smart guy who understood Canada’s looming demographic headwinds, cutting the GST was irresponsible pandering.

If we don’t want our public health care system to collapse altogether, at some point we’re going to have to restore the GST to at least 7 per cent. Probably higher. The Nordic countries that Canadians like to compare themselves with for their social welfare (and expect the same level of public services) have 20-25 per sent VATS.

And huge payroll taxes. Places like Sweden and Germany have 20-30% payroll taxes vs. Canada's 7-8%.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Calgary '89

Mostly rebated? If you take Trudeau and Freeland at their word. It's been proven that the rebate is a net positive for ONLY the poorest segment of the population which sounds great in theory except for the fact that it's a growing segment too. For you and me who have time to fart around and post on these forums, it's definitely a tax.

The GST was a replacement of the manufacturers tax so I was wrong to claim that it was implemented to pay down Trudeau debt, however the point remains on what had to happen after Trudeau 1.0 and it continued well after Mulroney.

You can make up stuff in your head all you want, but I can guarantee you I make more in the carbon tax than pay, because we rarely drive and live in a small efficient home. CBC has a calculator you can use to check. You too could make good choices and be awesome like Fuzz, and get paid by the government to exist. And no, I'm not the poor est segment of the population, either. But at any rate, for most Canadians it's a minor win or loss. It's just not significant, and if you think it is, that burden is on you to prove.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

The Conservative government that followed Pierre Trudeau did not "clean up" the Government of Canada's finances. In fact, they made it even worse; federal deficit spending increased under Mulroney's Conversative government of the mid-late 80s and early 90s. It was the following Liberal government of Jean Chretien and Paul Martin that got Canada's fiscal house in order, balancing the budget and paying down the national debt. It only took Harper a few years to squander this and return the country to deficit spending.

I think debt-to-GDP is probably the best measure, as it accounts for economic growth (and inflation to a degree). It's pretty clear what has happened over the last 40 years:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GGGDTACAA188N

Huge increase in the '80s and early '90s, steady decline from the mid '90s to mid '00s, big increase from the mid '00s to mid '10s, and then a slight decline from 2016 until COVID before a big jump up, and then declines since then. Obviously there's more to macroeconomics than the government in power, but there's a pretty clear correlation there over the last 40 years and it's certainly not Conservatives "cleaning up the mess". They normally end up going way into debt to offer tax cuts.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Harper left a massive infrastructure deficit and only managed to balance the budget with creative sales of assets.

Which asset sales?
Hint: The GM share sale proceeds were part of Trudeau's first budget.

[Harry Lime]

Labels aside, Martin was an old-timey conservative. Part of the reason that Chretien was the best PM in my lifetime was that he was balanced financially by a conservative. The other part was that he actually didn't seem to care about making his friends and family OPEC rich.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well if you're giving Harper a pass for the spending during the GFC, then surely you realise that the spending through Covid is a major factor for Trudeau, right?

Yeah, it's pretty funny. Canada's Debt to GDP under Harper increased by 35%. Sure, we had 2008 to deal with so he should get some slack for that. But still, a 35% increase is a lot, but he still gets treated as a calm financial steward.

Meanwhile Trudeau is characterized as a drunken sailor, yet Debt to GDP has only increased by about 16% since he came to power over a roughly equal timeline. And that's with a crisis that was at least as serious as 2008 as it relates to government finances. So Harper increased the Debt to GDP by about 120% more than Trudeau has, yet by their reputations you would think the reverse was true.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Which asset sales?
Hint: The GM share sale proceeds were part of Trudeau's first budget.

And part of Harper’s announced “balanced” budget in April of 2015

[Calgary '89]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

You can make up stuff in your head all you want, but I can guarantee you I make more in the carbon tax than pay, because we rarely drive and live in a small efficient home. CBC has a calculator you can use to check. You too could make good choices and be awesome like Fuzz, and get paid by the government to exist. And no, I'm not the poor est segment of the population, either. But at any rate, for most Canadians it's a minor win or loss. It's just not significant, and if you think it is, that burden is on you to prove.

You also likely work from home selling services or software and don't own/operate commercial property and maybe even generate your own electricity? We can all make up or ignore whatever we want to!

A government telling you they'll take your money, manage it and then give you back even more money is awesome if you believe it. I'm glad you're making so many good choices!

[ikaris]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

The Conservative government that followed Pierre Trudeau did not "clean up" the Government of Canada's finances. In fact, they made it even worse; federal deficit spending increased under Mulroney's Conversative government of the mid-late 80s and early 90s. It was the following Liberal government of Jean Chretien and Paul Martin that got Canada's fiscal house in order, balancing the budget and paying down the national debt. It only took Harper a few years to squander this and return the country to deficit spending.

Within my lifetime (I'm 43), there has only been one government at the federal level that has been responsible with the federal budget, and it sure wasn't a Conservative one.

This is hilariously distorted as it doesn't show the current Trudeau's damage over the last five years.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Which asset sales?
Hint: The GM share sale proceeds were part of Trudeau's first budget.

Yes, which he used campaigning. He lost on the gambit, but he tried to sell this fine fiscal management as a reason people should vote for him.


Let's not forget he also sold the Wheat Board to the Saudis.

[aaronck]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

The Conservative government that followed Pierre Trudeau did not "clean up" the Government of Canada's finances. In fact, they made it even worse; federal deficit spending increased under Mulroney's Conversative government of the mid-late 80s and early 90s. It was the following Liberal government of Jean Chretien and Paul Martin that got Canada's fiscal house in order, balancing the budget and paying down the national debt. It only took Harper a few years to squander this and return the country to deficit spending.

Within my lifetime (I'm 43), there has only been one government at the federal level that has been responsible with the federal budget, and it sure wasn't a Conservative one.

LOL, no one that should look at this will, and that's probably Trudeau's fault as well! Damn you Trudeau!

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Calgary '89

You also likely work from home selling services or software and don't own/operate commercial property and maybe even generate your own electricity? We can all make up or ignore whatever we want to!

A government telling you they'll take your money, manage it and then give you back even more money is awesome if you believe it. I'm glad you're making so many good choices!

LOL, no, no and no. I work for what was an oil and gas consulting company downtown that now consults in many different types of geoscience services, because reality, man. And no, I don't generate my own power. I'm not doing anything special that any other Calgarian couldn't do with different choices.


If you don't understand how the carbon tax system allows this to happen, perhaps you should do some reading? It's pretty basic stuff. Use less, pay less. Maybe an analysis of your lifestyle will shed some light on where you could improve? Do you commute by single person private vehicle daily, and is this a large pickup or SUV? How many sq foot is your home with how many people? CP is here to help.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

The Conservative government that followed Pierre Trudeau did not "clean up" the Government of Canada's finances. In fact, they made it even worse; federal deficit spending increased under Mulroney's Conversative government of the mid-late 80s and early 90s. It was the following Liberal government of Jean Chretien and Paul Martin that got Canada's fiscal house in order, balancing the budget and paying down the national debt. It only took Harper a few years to squander this and return the country to deficit spending.

Within my lifetime (I'm 43), there has only been one government at the federal level that has been responsible with the federal budget, and it sure wasn't a Conservative one.

Is there a reason why the graph doesn't show Justin Trudeau when he has been at the helm for 8 years now? No one is speaking of Pierre Trudeau, and I see no one singing Mulroney's laurels here (quite the opposite in fact). We are also going quite far in the past there where a different economic world existed.

Harper's numbers showed declining numbers similar to Chretien / Martin prior to the credit crash, but definitely the CPC has to share to blame for lowering the GST and spending. Canada while Harper was in power also practiced quantitative easing (which benefits are still dubious).

Of course, Justin Trudeau's numbers need to be taken with an asterix considering covid had a bigger short term financial impact than 2008. But even accounting with covid, Trudeau's spending and growing of government is abnormal.

You are quite correct that the Chretien / Martin governments were the most financially responsible (and one I voted for), but this isn't who is at the helm the past 8 years.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cos...year-1.6797486

"The state has gotten bigger, there's no question. They abandoned the Chrétien-Martin-Harper political consensus as soon as they got into power," said Khan, pointing to previous governments that kept spending in the 12-13 per cent range of GDP.

It's not just expenses — federal public service employment has increased by 31 per cent in seven years. The government has added nearly 80,000 employees to the roster during its tenure.

Total expenses for the federal government were $280.4 billion in the 2014-15 fiscal year.

Adjusted for inflation, that's roughly $345.5 billion in today's dollars.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland's budget projects total expenses will be $496.9 billion in 2023-24 — a year when there's no extraordinary pandemic-related spending.

And under Freeland's current plan, the spending will move higher in the years to come. Her budget projects spending will ring in at $555.7 billion in 2027-28.