CP Lockout Mafia - Game Over - Players Win!

[Lego Man]

***** DEAD POST *****

i miss you guys

my life is empty now.

Thank you so much Mazrim for setting this all up!

***** END DEAD POST *****

[octothorp]

Screw it.

I lied about something in my post yesterday where I speculated on who was likely to be a player. All of the observations I noted were correct, except for this: I do not think Undercoverbrother is a player.


1. Day 2 vote manipulation. The first vote on day 2 is strombad voting for regulator75. The next vote is undercoverbrother for captain crunch (doesn’t state a reason but picks up on a few other posters discussing CaptainCrunch). It’s not that there aren’t good reasons to vote for CC - we all did at one time or another, but UCB seems particularly eager to get the votes rolling. Regulator picks up another, and then there’s a run on captain crunch votes. But this upward movement in captain crunch votes stalls around 7. http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=503
Attention begins to shift back to regulator.
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=588
When this happens, undercover brother attempts to flip attention to sliver, rather insistent that they should pick sliver over any other low-post user.
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=590
Others don’t follow, and eventually, he gets on the regulator vote at #7.


2. Day 3 starts out pretty straightforward, there’s a strong movement against Timbo. Undercoverbrother starts the day again targeting Sliver. http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=653
When Timbo offers to copy-and-paste from Mazrim, undercoverbrother jumps in to make strombad quote the rules about this not being allowed. As the votes pile up on Timbo, he’s unusually quiet (he noted he would be busy that day, but he did have time to make a couple posts).
Expresses a ‘willingness’ to vote Timbo, but tries to turn attention back to captain crunch and silver.
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=735
There’s no pattern of vote manipulation like on Day 2, but perhaps he doesn’t want to stick his neck out two days in a row.

3. Starts day 4 by again targeting Captain Crunch. http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=781. Voted Captain Crunch, although this vote never got officially logged by Mazrim because he didn’t unvote first. After Mazrim points this out, he unvotes but does not revote for CC. Then after the CC lynch finally happens, he posts 15 minutes later saying that we shouldn’t.

To me this stinks. He’s been on CC since day 2, singling him out several times a day. And then 15 minutes after the guy is lynched he has a change of heart? If you’re mafia and you realize that the guy you’ve been using as a decoy is about to get lynched, why not try to take advantage of this by declaring a change of heart right before (or just after) the deadline? It would be convincing if it didn’t go so hard against everything UCB’s been saying since the beginning of day 2. Alternately, it’s possible that he realized at the last minute that as soon as CC was revealed as a player, someone would go back and investigate who worked hardest to get him voted out.


4. Killings: There’s a strong correlation between suspecting UCB of something, and winding up dead. I don’t think all of these people were necessarily killed by the mafia; if there’s an assassin working independently, then almost certainly that guy eliminated one or two of these guys. However, each of the following deaths has some connection to UCB:

4a. Oling Roachanin (killed night 1)
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=319

4b. Hockeyguy (killed night 2): UCB argued against hockeyguy regarding significance of PMs. Hockeyguy first noted UCB as one of the people on PMs:
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=285
He then put forward UCB as a candidate to vote for (along with Drake and Timbo), and a couple posts later UCB was okay to go along with the Drake vote:
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=327
The two continued to debate about the significance of PMs on day 2:
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=461

4c. Matt_GP (killed night 3): voiced suspicions about UCB:
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...9&postcount=69
Also, this exchange. More on it in #5.
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=530

4d. CaptainCrunch (lynched day 4): to be fair, CC may not have noticed UCB, were UCB not targeting CC. Now, CC wasn’t killed during the night, we lynched him. But UCB was leading the charge on CC until a last-minute (actually, later than last-minute) change of heart.
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=414

4e. Sliver/Delgar (killed night 5): UCB also got into a disagreement with Delgar in day 4 regarding abilities, with undercoverbrother claiming to have no abilities. While Delgar never explicitly stated this, I think you can read that Delgar is suspicious here. And now Delgar’s dead.

4f. legoman (killed night 5): Legoman voted for UCB so early that almost everyone would forget it, unless you were totally unforgiving. But this isn’t the reason I think UCB might have killed Legoman. Blaster86 gives his suspicions of Undercoverbrother being part of a voting block that also includes Legoman. Killing Blaster would have been too obvious to eliminate that challenge, but killing legoman would be a more effective way of eliminating Blaster’s suspicions.


5. Lack of effective contributions
He’s got the second-most posts on this thread. With all of that, you’d expect him to occasionally be right about something, by sheer odds. Either he’d suggest a mafia-member before the votes started to accumulate, or he would have defended a player who was getting votes. But no, all he’s got to show for his huge post-count is a middle-vote on Drake, a middle-vote on Regulator, and a defence of Captain Crunch that came after his post. I mentioned Matt_GP’s post earlier:
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=530
And then you look at what UCB has been doing… asking people why they’re voting the way they’re voting, even when they’re agreeing with him, asking about the rules, basically looking very engaged in conversation, but again, not really contributing anything. His two votes for Regulator and Drake were early enough to appear good, but both came after the momentum turned against them, and in the case of Drake, came immediately after Hockeyguy suggested UCB, timbo and drake as candidates.
He suggests at one point that hockeyguy is trying to Keyzer-Soze us. I think that’s exactly what UCB has been trying to do.


6. Late identity reveal, which was the reason Oling was suspicious.


7. The case for Aeneas working with UCB.

Similar posts on captain crunch and silver: His only votes were:
a vote for Hockeyguy early on Day 1.
A couple votes for Captain Crunch. At one point after the vote for Captain Crunch, he brings up that ‘he could be swayed’ into voting for hockeyguy again. This post comes right in the middle of hockeyguy and UCB debating PMing.
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=463
And then there was the vote for Silver that came at a time when there was a strong movement to vote for Timbo. Coincidence that he was going for exactly the player that UCB had tried to get momentum for?

There’s also this strange encounter between them, where they are the two people involved in the thread who don’t seem to want to vote for Timbo, and debate how he should best defend himself.

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=743

(I don’t think this exchange either incriminates or exonerates them, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention it, if only because it’s the only point they interact with one-another.)


8. Recent PM evidence:

I’ve had this theory for a couple days now. Ever since we knew that CC and Silver/Delgar were players. I listed UCB as a likely player because I wanted to weigh reactions of UCB, Aeneas, and other players. Would they give themselves away? Would they implicate themselves? Would they exonerate themselves by attacking each other?

After I made that post at 12:05, I noticed UCB lurking in the thread at about 12:10.
At 12:20 he was on PMs.
Then he went back to the thread, but did not post.

At this time, Aeneas’ profile said that had not been online since 5:30am. At 12:31, Aeneas came online and immediately went into this thread to defend himself.

Maybe it’s a coincidence. Or maybe UCB went online, saw that he wasn't suspected but that his buddy Aeneas was, so he sent a quick PM to Aeneas, so that Aeneas would get online and defend himself.



Look, maybe I’m totally wrong about all of this. Maybe it’s just A LOT of unlucky coincidences. At this point I’m pretty-much that guy from the movies who’s got a whole wall full of newspaper clippings, pinned-up and connected with string… has Shea Weber cracked some code, or has he simply cracked? But damned if it doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. It’s not just that I think undercoverbrother is a mafia, I think he’s the don, and he’s playing the freaking hell out of his role. I’m I’m right, he’s thrown his fellow mafia guys under the bus when necessary, he’s eliminated everyone who was ever suspicious of him, and he’s done it all by being one of the most frequent posters and yet largely avoiding suspicion.

[dsavillian]

I've only skimmed because I want to go through every post one by one and start with a fresh perspective.

You've put a lot of effort into this, right or wrong.

[octothorp]

Is that a polite way of saying that it's become a dangerously unhealthy obsession?

[dsavillian]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Is that a polite way of saying that it's become a dangerously unhealthy obsession?

Maybe

I'm actually a bit jealous... I wish I had the time today to put that much effort in. I love this game and feel like I haven't been able to put my best foot forward since day 2

[Aeneas]

Well, I can assure you I recieved no PM or other message from UB. He called me a DB! Or he called Karlsson one, not sure which.

Checking this thread is the first thing I do when I go online. Just overwhelming curiousity. I know that "lurking" may seem suspicious but I dont usually bother to log in. I dont post a great deal on CP, just read alot. Typing in my password is annoying!

Took the kids swimming this morning, then when I got home I checked this thread first thing. No message from the mafia, just Octothorp going crazy. I have this image of you in my mind now, as Mel Gibson in that conspiracy movie. Have to defend myself, I have nothing to hide. I wonder how many skeletons are in your closet Octo? I thought for sure the assassin would be someone with few posts (like me!) but I wonder if it is you.

I have done some PM ing yesterday, but pretty sure 100% of them were with Nufy. Thats right couldn't resist the Nerf guns for my kids. Okay you caught me in a lie, the guns are for me!

[dsavillian]

Originally Posted by Aeneas

I wonder how many skeletons are in your closet Octo? I thought for sure the assassin would be someone with few posts (like me!) but I wonder if it is you.

This strikes me as a classic example of deflection.

Given that octo has used his ability already and that his power is almost certainly a player-only ability (unless our mod is sadistic and enjoys torturing us ) you are way off base.

So off base that you may have sealed your own fate here.

Now I just need to determine if you are my #1 or #2 suspect.

[dsavillian]

a few points that I've come up with quickly before I have to leave

- UCB frequently speaks in terms of being part of the player base. EG "management is against us" type of posts. None of the remaining participants have really done this... it provides no value except to snow the investigation.

- UCB encouraged CC to accept his fate on day 2. NO player would ever in their right mind vote for themselves, except in some cases of incredibly high level strategy.

- UCB has a high post count, but next to no contribution to any kind of sound strategy. Not a follower, not a leader, just seems to be noise

- UCB tried to slow down the votes on Timbo on day 3

- UCB was all about getting octo to off huntingwhale and get right back on the CC vote train. No one else was that aggressive.

- Aeneas keeps saying he'll "share his thoughts" but never does. Tell us Aeneas, who do YOU think is the mafia/assassin? And more importantly, why?


Alright. Here's what I want to do.

Aeneas, Undercoverbrother. Share with us what your powers are. Do that and I will share mine, even though it puts me at great risk.

[dsavillian]

I meant to underline my last line in the previous post. So I'm going to post it again so that it doesn't get missed.

Aeneas, Undercoverbrother. Share with us what your powers are. Do that and I will share mine, even though it puts me at great risk.


I do not think both of you are guilty. The answers you provide will pretty much make my mind up for me though.

[dsavillian]

And what the heck is up with UCB always encouraging us to take our time?

[dsavillian]

How many mafia do you think we have left, assuming that there's also an assassin?

[Aeneas]

Originally Posted by dsavillian

a few points that I've come up with quickly before I have

- Aeneas keeps saying he'll "share his thoughts" but never does. Tell us Aeneas, who do YOU think is the mafia/assassin? And more importantly, why?


Alright. Here's what I want to do.

Aeneas, Undercoverbrother. Share with us what your powers are. Do that and I will share mine, even though it puts me at great risk.

I have many times said who I think might be the assassin/ mafia. I have not been right, but I have done it. Thought CC was mafia. Thought someone like Sliver, huntingwhale, stazzy33 was the assassin. Have many times why I think / thought that type of poster was the assassin.

I have no real evidence of anything.

Started to suspect dissentowner with the odd posting style. Thought that would be a clever way to hide inplain sight. Following the path of two dead weird posting players.

Said earlier that Octothorp may be the assassin with one time daykill power.

You ask me for my opinions when previously they are dismissed as deflection.

Nonetheless I will continue. Who have the mafia killed? Hockeyguy, strombad, and gp matt come to mind. All three posted either alot or well, or both. Add Delgar to that list. All posted lots of theories and wound up dead. The only guy left that posts alot, and many theories in great detail...is Octothorp.

Why is he still alive?

If I were mafia I would have had Octothorp killed early. That's a complement Octothorp.

Not a fan of revealing powers/roles, as I think that makes mafia's job easier...however I am a Tracker. And I have discovered nothing much useful all game.

[activeStick]

First - great stuff octo! Very impressive post.

Second - I think we have around 2-4 Mafia left based on earlier conversations. Do we know for a fact that Mafia can do kills? If so, I guess that's one assassin we have, otherwise, if Mafia is not guaranteed to be able to kill, then we likely have two assassins. I'm assuming this because there's always two players getting killed every night.

[activeStick]

Sorry, meant to add, I'm strongly leaning to UCB.

[Wood]

Well we're down to what, probably only 2-3 mafia left? Might as well try make a move and give them less time to double kill us every night

I can confirm that undercoverbrother is a player. Both our roles are "Pumping Tires" and our ability is to be able to PM each other. As we're told in our PMs from Mazrim we're both 100% positive the other is also a player

This is my list of where I think each player stands currently

Players:
Wood
undercoverbrother
dsavillian
Octothorp
activeStick

Not sure (Probably players):
Dissentowner
agulati
Anduril

Suspicious of:
Blaster86
Aeneas
HalifaxDrunk
stazzy33

I know we've all assumed blaster must be a player since day 1, but I recently became suspicious of him based on a few things

It started at the end of the last day when he said CC and Lego Guy are 100% mafia. Well they both ended up being players and both are now dead. He also said undercoverbrother is "part of their block." But I know for a fact undercoverbrother is a player

He's pointing fingers at players without giving a reason now all of a sudden after barely ever posting anything to contribute. He's a guy who has experience in mafia games, if he was a player I feel like he'd help out and post more, why sit back so much

On day 1 when he and Flameswin revealed that they can PM, I thought it was weird another set of players have the exact same ability as me and ucb. And then the mafia killed Flameswin which also seemed weird to me, because he was new to this and had barely posted, he didn't know what he was doing. Why kill him over Blaster?

From the mafia rules: "Notoriously, some moderators will introduce Mafia-aligned Masons, taking the term "Mason" to imply that it is probable that the other Masons are Town-aligned, but not absolute"

Is it possible that in their role PMs Flameswin was told that Blaster could possibly be mafia, but they're allowed to communicate? And Flameswin just assumed that Blaster was on his side?

When blaster was in trouble on day 1 he used Flameswin to back him up and get us all to believe he's a player. Then after saving himself, at night they killed Flameswin. If Blaster was a mafia member, that's really convenient because he could then just sit back (like he has) without any suspicion and continue to try and shift focus off of whatever other mafia member(s) are alive

Blaster has never had a vote in a lynching. He's voted a couple times, but unvoted before any lynchings have happened. Not sure if that points to anything but it's different from what every player has done

[Wood]

I really went hard after CC, and was convinced he was mafia, so I could obviously be way off here. But I'm curious if anyone else can see this being a possibility

Also now one or both of me and UCB will be killed tonight, so this better end up helping in a player win

[Blaster86]

I usually miss votes. The only one I've been even close to in on was CC. I am not a believer in rushing to lynch, but everyone else has been and up until recently has been very successful.

You can try and poke around me, if you want but really I am the only person who is a confirmed player. You can try and find holes in rules but remember it is in truly poor form to make a mason Mafia without giving a small heads up to the other guy. I am a player, and though my one assertion of CC being in a block of Mafia was wrong that isn't much to take from it.

I question why you would push that, I also question why you would actively out Undercover Brother without is permission, and how super defensive he got when I put him on the spot during the last vote.

The only way to confirm what you are saying would be for one of you to die. Truth is, we could kill one of you and still be fine if you're players. If we kill you and one of you are Mafia, we pretty much win the game.

[Blaster86]

Vote: Undercoverbrother

Upon reading more, I am positive this is the way to go.

[Wood]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

The only way to confirm what you are saying would be for one of you to die. Truth is, we could kill one of you and still be fine if you're players. If we kill you and one of you are Mafia, we pretty much win the game.

Well considering no ones been suspicious of me to this point, and there hasn't been a reason to, this would be a pretty foolish move if we were mafia. But you're right, you can vote me if you want

That was a really long drawn out post I made, and it's in no way me saying let's vote blaster, but me trying to figure out if you could be a mafia-mason. I've never played this before, so my assumption of that being a possibility came from people mentioning that being possible in this thread. Didn't know it was thought of to be in poor form

We've discussed outing our role a while ago, but there wasn't any reason to. Now that he's a target now was the time. I don't want to waste one of our day lynchs on a guy who's 100% a player. We can narrow down the potential mafia by 2 now

[agulati]

If wood and ucb are mafia, that is a very risky move for wood to say they can vouch for each other. Killing one of them will definitely out the other. Either a stupid move or a genius move depending on how it pans out

I am leaning towards both being players for the risk factor alone. At least for now.

I am a bit skeptical of Aeneas.